Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the high - sulfur monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels. The European high - sulfur cracking spread weakened, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW strengthened. The Singapore 0.5% cracking spread fluctuated at a historical low, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels, and the Singapore VLSFO cracking spread further weakened [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore residual oil, high - sulfur floating storage, ARA residual oil, and Fujairah residual oil increased in inventory. High - sulfur floating storage and EIA residual oil decreased in inventory. This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound [3][4]. - After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21st, the external low - sulfur fuel oil has support, but the short - term upside space is limited. Global residual oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread is affected by crude oil fluctuations, and the spot market shows no improvement, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a low valuation but no driving force for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 decreased by 1.46, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 increased by 1.27, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.35, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 2.60, the Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 3.87, the LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 2.73 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 0.34, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 4.31, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 0.88, the price of Singapore GO M1 decreased by 0.22, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.36, and the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 0.75 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 5.69, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 2.98, the 380 - basis increased by 0.25, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.0 [2]. Domestic FU Futures Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of FU 01 increased by 19, the price of FU 05 increased by 20, the price of FU 09 increased by 19, the FU 01 - 05 decreased by 1, the FU 05 - 09 increased by 1, and the FU 09 - 01 remained unchanged [2]. Domestic LU Futures Data - From December 12th to December 18th, the price of LU 01 increased by 37, the price of LU 05 increased by 24, the price of LU 09 increased by 21, the LU 01 - 05 increased by 13, the LU 05 - 09 increased by 3, and the LU 09 - 01 decreased by 16 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, improving short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectations [3] - The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses, and the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85% [3] - Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high, but caution is needed due to potential over - bought conditions and regulatory risks [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601) and methanol (MA2605) are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term; coking coal (JM2605) is expected to rebound from the bottom; palm oil (P2605) is recommended to be shorted on rallies; platinum and lithium (PT2606/PD) are recommended to be bought on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounded led by pro - cyclical stocks, but the market lacks upward momentum and has limited downside space. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and for trading, fast entry and exit with timely profit - taking are advised. For the 10 - year variety, the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85%, and attention should be paid to the support level of T2603 around 107.6 - 107.8. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and seeing, and for the futures - spot strategy, attention can be paid to the positive spread of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high. Unilateral long positions can be held, but caution is needed when chasing highs and timely profit - taking is recommended. For platinum and lithium, it is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies or lock positions [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract oscillated narrowly, and short - term oscillation is expected [3] Commodity Sector - **Steel**: Steel prices maintained an oscillating range. In May, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to trade in the ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively [3] - **Iron Ore**: With a decline in hot - metal production and an increase in port inventory, iron ore oscillated and rebounded, and it is recommended to view it as oscillating upward, with a reference range of 730 - 800 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coal in the production area continued to decline, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. The futures price rebounded from an oversold level, and it is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December was implemented, and the port trading price led the decline. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1450 - 1600 [3] - **Copper**: The inventory in three locations increased, and spot trading was average. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: The price oscillated at the bottom, and short - term volatility may increase. Short - term traders can lightly build long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: After the interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21700 - 22400, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price oscillated following the aluminum price, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum narrowed slightly. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20700 - 21400, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and shorting AL03 can be considered [3] - **Zinc**: The center of the zinc price declined, and spot trading improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse spread [3] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and the tin price oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions and buy on dips on pullbacks [3] - **Nickel**: The expected quota in Indonesia decreased, and the price repaired from a low level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 112000 - 116000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted slightly upward, and the supply - demand imbalance had limited driving force. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12200 - 12800 [3] - **New Energy**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The expectation of production cuts increased, and the futures price rose and then fell. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to rise to a new high, and it is recommended to wait and see with a bullish - oscillating view [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment was stimulated by news, and the price rose sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions appropriately [3] - **Chemical Industry**: - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and there is support at low levels. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, with limited driving force. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips; a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 at low levels can be considered [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to narrow the processing fee on rallies [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The decline in bottle - chip inventory supports the processing fee, and attention should be paid to the progress of device restart and production. It is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies; the main - contract processing fee is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] - **Ethanol**: Domestic supply is gradually shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand expectation is still weak. It is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support level around 6400 [3] - **LLDPE**: The North China region maintained a risk - free basis, and trading weakened. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price remained stable, and the basis weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol**: Both the spot price and the basis strengthened, and trading improved. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread for the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to take a bearish view [3] - **PVC**: A foreign device was permanently shut down, triggering a sharp rebound in the futures price. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound [3] - **Soda Ash**: Production is at a high level, with prominent over - supply, and there is no continuous driving force for a rebound. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [3] - **Glass**: The spot price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, with no upward positive driving force. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions [3] - **Natural Rubber**: There is a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the rubber price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost side is strong, and BR continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of BR2602 around 11200 [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have narrow - range adjustments; the pig market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and it is in a bottom - grinding phase; corn is in a narrow - range oscillation; vegetable oils rebounded in the short - term due to US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, and the P main contract may test the support level of 8200 - 8300 in the short - term; sugar is expected to oscillate weakly; cotton's upward trend slowed down and faces hedging pressure, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100; egg prices are mostly stable, with a slight decline in inventory in the circulation link, and are expected to oscillate weakly; apple's stocking is less than expected, and it is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically; jujube's new - year supply decreased slightly, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to weaken. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, with a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons (CCF data) or 75.5 tons (Longzhong data), showing an increase [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but high supply would resume in January. Overseas supply returned to neutral, and the increase in port inventory could be moderately alleviated. On the demand side, polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline [2]. - For investment strategies, a neutral stance was recommended for unilateral trading. There was large production capacity release pressure, and the inventory accumulation pressure was still large from January to February [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3758 yuan/ton, a change of +58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +1.57%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3668 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +0.88%. The EG East China spot basis was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -91 US dollars/ton, an increase of +4 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and that of coal - based syngas EG was -1050 yuan/ton, an increase of +26 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread - The report mentioned the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR, but no specific data was provided [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Polyester load remained firm with low inventory, but orders showed a marginal decline. However, no specific data on downstream sales, production and operating rate was given in the provided text [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 84.4 tons, an increase of +2.5 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 75.5 tons, an increase of +3.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrival volume at the main ports of East China this week was 11.8 tons, and the arrival volume at secondary ports was 3 tons, which was slightly high overall, and the main ports were expected to have a slight inventory accumulation [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The fundamentals of both LLDPE and PP show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting. Polypropylene has high maintenance levels on the supply - side with an expected increase later, and its inventory is still higher than usual. The overall valuation is moderately low. For polyethylene, the operating load is gradually rising, and the upstream inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures fluctuated upwards, with the basis being relatively firm. In the port area, Iranian gas restrictions led to multiple device shutdowns, but shipments are still fast. In the inland area, both supply and demand are increasing. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices after the shipment decreases [4][5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, with high inventory levels. The price is expected to be weak. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the demand is sluggish. Although there are expectations of increased exports, the overall supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to go short on PVC after a rebound [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is bearish, and the price is in a downward trend. After a technical rebound, short - term long positions can be closed, and short positions can be taken after a rebound. For glass, the spot price is stable, but the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with the 01 contract following the delivery logic and the 05 contract remaining weak in the short - term [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term and should be treated with low - buying. PTA may fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are recommended. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value. Short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee on the disk should be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, it is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 [11]. Natural Rubber - The supply - side is supported by rising overseas raw material prices due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia. The demand - side has limited improvement in production capacity utilization. The market is in a short - term stalemate between long and short forces, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15000 - 15500 [13]. Urea - Affected by the news of India's new round of tenders, the urea price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom - out and rebound in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 1650 - 1700 [15]. Crude Oil - After a rebound, the crude oil price is affected by geopolitical factors such as the situation between the US and Venezuela and the US - Russia talks. The inventory shows a slight reduction, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Brent crude oil should be monitored at the level of 60 dollars per barrel [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - For pure benzene, the short - term supply - demand is weak, but there are expectations of improvement later. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600. For styrene, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term [19]. LPG - The LPG price shows certain fluctuations. The inventory and operating rates of upstream and downstream are changing. The overall market situation needs to be further observed [21]. Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 and L2605 of LLDPE decreased, while PP2601 slightly increased and PP2605 slightly decreased. The basis and spreads of various varieties also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased, and social inventory decreased. PP enterprise inventory slightly increased, and trader inventory decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was stable, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased. PP device operating rate increased, and powder operating rate decreased [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis was relatively firm. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [4]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates also changed [5]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **PVC**: - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of PVC increased. The basis and spreads had corresponding changes [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply pressure remained, and demand was sluggish. There were expectations of increased exports [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: - **Prices**: Prices in different regions and forms had different trends. The export profit increased slightly [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand pressure remained, with high inventory levels [8]. Glass & Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Prices**: Spot prices in different regions were stable, and futures prices had minor changes [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [9]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices had small fluctuations [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply - demand was bearish, with reduced demand from the float and photovoltaic ends [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as crude oil and naphtha, and downstream polyester product prices all had different degrees of change [11]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory was expected to increase [11]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, changed [11]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and spreads changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory increased [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was affected by the overseas situation, and demand was limited by the slow recovery of tire production and the weakening of replacement demand [13]. Urea - **Prices**: Futures prices increased, and spot prices in different regions had different trends [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased [15]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by environmental inspections and the limited impact of India's tenders [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different trends, and the spreads between different varieties and months also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: EIA inventory decreased slightly [16]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Prices**: Pure benzene and styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and the spreads and cash - flows had corresponding changes [19]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene port inventory was stable, and styrene port inventory decreased [19]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries decreased [19]. LPG - **Prices**: Futures prices of LPG had different trends, and the basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: Refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream refinery operating rate increased, and some downstream operating rates also changed [21].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels. The European high - sulfur cracking spread weakened, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore fluctuated at a historical low, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels, and the VLSFO cracking spread in Singapore further weakened [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore residual fuel oil stocks increased, high - sulfur floating storage stocks increased, ARA residual fuel oil stocks increased significantly, Fujairah residual fuel oil stocks continued to increase significantly, high - sulfur floating storage stocks decreased, and EIA residual fuel oil stocks decreased [3][4]. - This week, the cracking spreads of foreign gasoline and diesel continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21, it shut down, providing support for foreign low - sulfur fuel oil, but the short - term upside space is limited [4]. - Global residual fuel oil has entered the off - season with inventory accumulation. The foreign cracking spread is affected by crude oil price fluctuations, and the spot market shows no improvement, so it is regarded as bearish. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, but there is no driving force for now [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, and other related swap products changed from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1 increased by 14.80, and the Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 increased by 9.01 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap and Spot Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, and other swap products changed from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 15.19 [1]. - The FOB prices of Singapore 380cst and FOB VLSFO in the spot market also changed during the same period. The FOB 380cst increased by 5.22, while the FOB VLSFO decreased by 2.42 [2]. Domestic Fuel Oil Futures Data - For domestic FU futures, from December 11 to December 17, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 changed. For example, FU 01 increased by 16 [2]. - For domestic LU futures, from December 11 to December 17, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased. For example, LU 01 decreased by 36 [3].

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads of different commodities [1][5][20][26][41][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis data of power coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025. The basis on December 17 was - 83.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous decline trend compared with previous days [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - It provides the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the basis of fuel oil on December 17 was - 19.33 yuan/ton [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 17 was - 340 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 45 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. On December 17, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2110 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on December 17 was 206.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of螺纹钢 was - 13.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, 焦炭/焦煤, and 螺 - 热卷 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are given. On December 17, the 螺/矿 ratio was 4.03 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 17 was - 660 yuan/ton [28] (2) London Market - On December 17, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the London market are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (15.30) [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. The basis of soybeans No.1 on December 17 was - 70 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of various agricultural products are provided, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 39 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on December 17, 2025 are given. The ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.85 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. The basis of CSI 300 on December 17 was 1.68 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are shown. The next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 194 [52]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices had a small rebound on Tuesday, with the futures price center slightly rising, but the spot price increase was limited, and the trading volume of building materials spot trade decreased month-on-month. The current supply-demand structure shows weak supply and demand, and the valuation is relatively low. It is not recommended to chase short positions. There is some support at the low price level, and it is necessary to wait for production cuts and observe the start of winter storage replenishment [2][3][5] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are under pressure, and the upward resistance remains strong. Although the double-control policy boosts the price sentiment, the steel price pressure pattern remains unchanged, the direct demand weakens, and the mid-term oversupply pressure persists. Recently, the supply and demand of manganese silicon are weaker than that of ferrosilicon, and the inventory accumulates significantly [5] - The spot auction of coking coal and coke has improved. The spot market has improved, with a decrease in auction flow and mixed price changes. The futures market is in a state of entanglement, and it is more likely to continue to wait for the improvement of the spot market after the rebound. Attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [5] - The molten iron output has dropped again, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise under the influence of supply and demand, and the price is difficult to improve. It is expected that the molten iron will stabilize at the end of the month and recover in January, and the decline of iron ore price will slow down [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Futures Market: On December 16th, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, etc., and near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc., all showed different degrees of increase. The price center of futures contracts on Tuesday had a slight upward shift [1] - Spot Market: The spot prices of Shanghai thread steel, Shanghai hot-rolled coil, etc., also showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged. The spot price followed the increase to a small extent, and the trading volume of building materials spot trade decreased month-on-month [1][3] - Strategy: Treat the single-side at a low level in a volatile manner; conduct rolling operations for the spot-futures positive spread of hot-rolled coils, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [6] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Market Situation: The double-control policy boosts the price sentiment, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The steel price pressure pattern remains unchanged, the direct demand weakens, and the mid-term oversupply pressure persists. Recently, the supply and demand of manganese silicon are weaker than that of ferrosilicon, and the inventory accumulates significantly [5] - Strategy: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on manganese silicon [6] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Market: The market still has expectations of price cuts, but the trade price has basically covered it. On Tuesday, the spot market improved, with a decrease in auction flow and mixed price changes. The overall market trading situation has not improved significantly [5] - Futures Market: The futures market on Monday was volatile and strong. After the steel export license system was officially announced on Friday night, the coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded after pricing in the expectation of six rounds of price cuts, showing signs of stabilization, and then fell into a shock [5] - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [6] Iron Ore - Market Situation: The molten iron output has continued to decline to about 2.29 million tons, and there are no signs of stabilization. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price is difficult to improve. It is expected that the molten iron will stabilize at the end of the month and recover in January, and the decline of iron ore price will slow down [5] - Strategy: Hold the previous short positions and wait until the lower limit of the range [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe weakened, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore fluctuated at a historical low, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels, and the VLSFO cracking in Singapore further weakened. [3] - In terms of inventory, the residual fuel oil in Singapore, high - sulfur floating storage, ARA residual fuel oil, and Fujairah residual fuel oil all increased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased in stock, and the EIA residual fuel oil decreased in stock. [3][4] - This week, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market has support, but the short - term upward space is limited. [4] - The global residual fuel oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is currently no driving force. [4] 3. Summary of Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 4.89, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by 11.93, and the price of Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.76. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 6.43, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 2.93, and the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 9.91. [1][7] - **Spot Data**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 4.96, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 8.09, the 380 - basis data is incomplete, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 2.3. [2] Domestic Fuel Oil Futures Data - **FU Futures**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased by 49, 43, and 45 respectively. The price difference between FU 01 - 05 decreased by 6, the price difference between FU 05 - 09 increased by 2, and the price difference between FU 09 - 01 increased by 4. [2] - **LU Futures**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased by 88, 69, and 62 respectively. The price difference between LU 01 - 05 decreased by 19, the price difference between LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and the price difference between LU 09 - 01 increased by 26. [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [4] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [4] Group 2: Price and Basis Information Basis - Shandong Basis (non-Jingbo, +80): On December 16, it was 16, with a daily change of 69 [3] - East China Basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse): On December 16, it was 86 [3] - South China Basis (Foshan Warehouse): On December 16, it was 36 [3] Month Spread - 01 - 03: On December 16, it was -52, with a daily change of 5 [3] - 02 - 03: On December 16, it was -22, with a daily change of -3 [3] - 03 - 06: On December 16, it was -44, with a daily change of -10 [3] Contract Price - BU Main Contract (02): On December 16, it was 2894, a decrease of 69 [3] Spot Price - Jingbo: On December 16, it was 2950, unchanged [3] - Shandong (non-Jingbo): On December 16, it was 2830, unchanged [3] - Zhenjiang Warehouse: On December 16, it was 2980, unchanged [3] - Foshan Warehouse: On December 16, it was 2930, unchanged [3] Crude Oil Price - Brent Crude: On December 16, it was 60.6, a decrease of 0.6 [3] Profit - Asphalt Marrow Profit: On December 16, it was 418, an increase of 26 [3] Group 3: Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading Volume: On December 16, it was 567412, an increase of 239607 compared to the previous period [3] - Open Interest: On December 16, it was 472105, an increase of 45908 compared to the previous period [3] Group 4: Weekly Changes - The report also provides weekly change data for various indicators, such as a weekly change of 56 for a certain indicator and -14 for another [6]