Core Viewpoint - The ginseng industry in Wisconsin is facing significant challenges, including a decline in the number of growers, reduced production, and the impact of tariffs due to trade wars, which have created uncertainty in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Wisconsin is the only region in the U.S. producing high-quality ginseng, with a history of 125 years in cultivation [1]. - The peak production period was in the 1980s and 1990s, with over 1,200 growers and an annual output exceeding 2.6 million pounds (approximately 1.18 million kilograms) [1]. - Currently, the number of growers has decreased to 79, with an expected further decline of 12 in the next two years [1][2]. Group 2: Production Challenges - Ginseng production in Wisconsin has dropped to about 1 million pounds (approximately 0.45 million kilograms) [2]. - Increased competition from countries like Canada and adverse weather conditions have contributed to the decline in production [2]. - The ginseng industry is heavily reliant on the Chinese market, with about 80% of Wisconsin ginseng exported or brought as gifts to China [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The trade war has led to significant financial losses for ginseng growers, with sales and employment decreasing [3]. - Production costs have increased five to six times since the 1980s, while the price of ginseng has remained stagnant or even decreased, leading to reduced interest in cultivation [3]. - Current wholesale prices for ginseng are around $25 to $30 per pound, compared to $40 per pound in the 1980s [3]. Group 4: Media Attention - Recent media coverage has increased awareness of the challenges faced by the Wisconsin ginseng industry, highlighting the impact of tariffs [4].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the proposed punitive tariffs by the U.S. on countries purchasing Russian energy, with a potential 500% tariff on goods from these nations [1][3] - The U.S. aims to pressure China and India into choosing between Russian oil and the American market, which could significantly impact global trade dynamics [3][5] - The proposed tariffs could lead to a drastic increase in consumer prices in the U.S., affecting a wide range of products and potentially exacerbating inflation [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. actions may violate WTO principles, particularly the most-favored-nation treatment, allowing China and India to seek redress through international trade bodies [5][7] - Both China and India have expressed strong opposition to U.S. economic coercion, emphasizing their sovereignty in energy policy decisions [5][7] - The situation highlights the risks of weaponizing economic measures, which could backfire on U.S. consumers and businesses, undermining the multilateral trade system [7]

Group 1 - The core concern among investors is the potential for a global economic recession triggered by trade wars, with 38% identifying it as the largest tail risk event [1][3] - Trade tensions have escalated, leading to increased tariffs and a slowdown in global trade flow, which directly impacts import and export businesses and affects supply chains across various industries [3] - The potential chain reaction from trade wars could lead to production shrinkage, job losses, and decreased demand globally, ultimately resulting in an economic downturn [3] Group 2 - 20% of investors view inflation hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates as the second-largest tail risk event, complicating the global inflation landscape [4] - Persistent high inflation could prevent the Federal Reserve from implementing rate cuts, increasing corporate financing costs and putting pressure on economic growth [4] - The inability to lower interest rates could lead to significant market reactions, particularly affecting high-valuation growth stocks and emerging markets facing capital outflow risks [4] Group 3 - 14% of investors consider the depreciation of the dollar due to capital outflows as the third-largest tail risk event, highlighting the dollar's critical role in the global financial system [5][6] - A weakening dollar could increase the cost of dollar-denominated commodities, exacerbating global inflation pressures, and raise debt servicing costs for emerging markets with significant dollar-denominated debt [6] - Historical precedents show that tail risk events, while low in probability, can have far-reaching impacts, emphasizing the need for investors to remain vigilant [6] Group 4 - The current global economic landscape is characterized by intertwined challenges such as trade disputes, inflation pressures, and monetary policy adjustments, increasing the likelihood and potential impact of tail risks [6] - The survey results serve as a warning for investors to manage risks effectively through diversified asset allocation and hedging strategies [6] - Policymakers are encouraged to enhance international cooperation to resolve trade disputes and maintain a balance between inflation control and economic growth [7]

周四(7月17日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅下跌，现报3342美元/盎司附近。周三(7月16日)，有关美国总统 特朗普计划解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的传闻引发市场剧烈波动，美元一度大跌，随后缩小跌幅;而金价在 飙升后回吐多数涨幅。现货黄金周三收盘上涨0.68%，报3347.32美元/盎司。 特朗普"鲍威尔解雇令"虚惊一场? 美国《纽约时报》周三报道称，美国总统特朗普周二曾在椭圆形办公室，把开除美联储主席鲍威尔的草 稿信拿给一起开会的共和党众议员看。 美国彭博社报道称，特朗普可能即将解雇鲍威尔。 若在鲍威尔任期于明年5月届满前将他解职，可能对美元不利，因这将动摇外界对美国金融体系与美元 避险地位的信心。 Monex USA交易资深总监Juan Perez表示："真正可能摧毁美元价值的，是任何形式对美联储独立性与权 威的攻击。" 但在相关报道出炉后，特朗普本人予以否认。他说："我不排除任何可能，但我认为这非常不可能，除 非他(鲍威尔)因为诈欺而被迫离职。" 特朗普指的是白宫及共和党议员近日批评美联储总部翻新工程耗资25亿美元的争议。 在特朗普否认计划解雇鲍威尔的相关报导后，美元指数自低点显著反弹，缩减日内跌幅;金价则自高点 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Report Source: Wukuang Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as North American weather, trade wars, and bio - diesel policies, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, with suggestions to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure and tariff progress [3][5]. - The palm oil market is influenced by factors like export data and production, and the overall oil market is affected by the EPA policy and production increases. It is expected to fluctuate, with potential for a rise in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - The sugar market may see a downward trend in the future, considering the import profit window and the expected increase in imports [11][12]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as the non - finalized Sino - US trade agreement, basis changes, and potential import quota issuance [14][15]. - The egg market has limited capacity clearance, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - The pig market has a seasonal supply reduction, and the futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Soybean/Miscellaneous Meals Market Situation - On Wednesday, US soybeans rebounded and closed higher. North American weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports continued to put pressure on US soybeans, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and bio - diesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated, with concerns about future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices dropped slightly, and oil - mill sales were weak but pick - up was good. The estimated domestic soybean crushing volume is 238.03 million tons this week [3]. - US soybean growing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums have been rising slightly, and the unresolved Sino - US soybean tariffs support local premiums, offsetting the decline in US soybeans. Overall, soybean import costs are stable for now [3]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at high levels, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Oils Market Situation - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil prices fluctuated, affected by weakening export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by Sino - Australian diplomatic contacts and a decline in foreign rapeseed prices. The EPA policy has lifted the annual oil price center, but there are still bearish factors due to increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The US bio - diesel policy draft supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, with a potential rise in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, due to high valuation and factors like annual production increases, high palm oil production, and the undetermined RVO rules, the market is expected to fluctuate [9]. Important Information - Malaysian palm oil export data shows an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June and a decline of 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days. In July 2025, from the 1st - 10th, palm oil production increased by 35.28%, and in the first 15 days, it increased by 17.06% [6]. - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [6]. - China and Australia are close to reaching a purchase agreement for 150,000 - 200,000 tons of rapeseed [6]. Sugar Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The September contract closed at 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed slight adjustments, with a narrowing of the basis between Guangxi spot and the main contract [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in a good import - profit window, and the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year may lead to a downward trend in sugar prices, especially considering the relatively high valuation of the September contract [12]. Important Information - ICRA estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 34 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from the current season, due to favorable monsoon rainfall for sugarcane growth [11]. Cotton Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose with increased positions. The September contract closed at 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly, and the basis widened. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a 0.13% year - on - year decrease and a 4.22% month - on - month increase [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement is not finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a bearish factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile [15]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative textile and clothing exports were 143.978 billion US dollars, a 0.76% year - on - year increase [14]. Eggs Market Situation - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing intention increased, with faster sales. Today's prices may be stable in some areas and rise slightly in others [17]. Trading Strategy - Capacity clearance in the egg market is limited, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. Due to high futures premiums and large positions, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Pigs Market Situation - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.06 yuan to 14.55 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.1 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was high, but market digestion was weak, and prices may continue to decline today [20]. Trading Strategy - Since late June, spot pig prices have rebounded, with reduced slaughter volume and lower weights, indicating a seasonal supply reduction. The futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [21]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with a focus on the potential impact on U.S. consumers and companies in these sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals - Trump plans to announce tariffs on drug imports by the end of August, starting with low rates and increasing them after a year [3] - The proposed tariffs could reach up to 200%, affecting major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly, Pfizer, and Merck that have production bases overseas [3] - The tariffs are expected to lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers [3] Group 2: Tariffs on Semiconductors - Similar to pharmaceuticals, Trump is considering tariffs on semiconductors, which he believes are less complex to implement [3] - The tariffs could impact chip manufacturers and companies like Apple and Samsung that rely on these chips for their products [3] Group 3: Trade Relations with Other Countries - The U.S. is investigating Brazil's trade practices, citing unfair advantages and potential restrictions on U.S. trade [4][5] - Trump has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, reducing tariffs on U.S. goods exported to the country [6] - The U.S. is also threatening high tariffs on imports from several countries, including a potential 30% tariff on EU goods, which could disrupt transatlantic trade [6] Group 4: Tariff Revenue - Despite concerns, the U.S. has reportedly gained nearly $50 billion in additional tariff revenue due to the lack of significant retaliation from trade partners [7] - Tariff revenue from April to June reached $64 billion, an increase of $47 billion compared to the same period last year [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a complex and uncertain international environment, China's economy has shown stable performance and exceeded growth expectations, achieving a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year [1][2][3]. Group 2 - China's manufacturing sector has been a significant driver of economic growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supported by rising demand for 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots [3]. - The service sector, including transportation, finance, and technology, has also experienced good growth, contributing to the overall economic stability [3]. - Consumer spending has played a crucial role, with final consumption expenditure contributing over 52% to economic growth in the second quarter, indicating a continued upward trend [3]. Group 3 - Despite challenges from high tariffs and fluctuating trade policies, China's import and export scale remained robust, reaching a historical high of 20 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [4]. - Exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first six months, demonstrating the resilience of China's manufacturing and export sectors amid ongoing trade disputes with the U.S. [4]. - China's diversified trade relationships have mitigated the impact of declining exports to the U.S., with double-digit growth in exports to ASEAN and Africa, as well as stable growth to the EU [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions initiated by Trump's imposition of a 30% punitive tariff on the EU, particularly affecting German car manufacturers like BMW, which could see costs rise by €2,000 per vehicle, erasing half a year's profit per sale [1][3] - The EU has prepared a countermeasure list worth €93 billion targeting iconic American products, indicating a shift in their response strategy to U.S. trade policies [3][10] - Market expectations are collapsing as traders exit positions based on the assumption that the U.S. would back down before August 1, with the IMF lowering global growth forecasts to 2.8% due to the trade war's potential impact [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is facing a significant institutional crisis, with Trump demanding a drastic interest rate cut to 1% despite economic indicators not supporting such a move [4][6] - There are concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve as Trump's administration seeks to create justifications for potentially replacing Chairman Powell, which could lead to severe market volatility [6][12] - The U.S. debt crisis is highlighted, with total debt reaching $37 trillion and interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025, raising alarms about fiscal sustainability [7][9] Group 3 - Global central banks are increasingly selling U.S. Treasury bonds, with Canada reducing its holdings by $57.8 billion, reflecting a trend towards de-dollarization driven by U.S. tariff policies [9][10] - The article notes a potential "death spiral" where tariffs increase import costs, leading to inflation, which in turn pressures the Fed to maintain high interest rates, exacerbating the debt situation [9][10] - The erosion of trust in the U.S. dollar is evident as countries like Brazil and the EU explore alternatives to dollar transactions, signaling a shift in global trade dynamics [10][12] Group 4 - The article concludes that the combination of tariffs, debt, and the Fed's compromised independence represents a crisis for the U.S. economic order, with predictions of a potential 30% devaluation of the dollar [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.20%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.35% [1]. - In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and the risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still exist. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment suppresses the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. The EU threatened counter - measures, and Trump said he was open to negotiations [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [5]. - **Funding and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF reduced positions again. Recently, the visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67,132.36 billion US dollars. M2 increased by 4.50% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Currency - related Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63, the US dollar index is 98.63, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.47, the US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.92, and the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.34 [8][10]. - **Inflation Data**: The US CPI increased by 2.70% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 2.90% year - on - year and 0.30% month - on - month [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: The US GDP increased by 1.90% year - on - year (annualized) and decreased by 0.50% quarter - on - quarter (annualized), the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 14.70 million [10]. - **Labor Market Data**: The labor participation rate is 62.60%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.70%, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was 22.70 million [10]. - **Real Estate Market Data**: The NAHB housing market index is 32.00, existing home sales are 403.00 million units, new home sales are 56.00 million units, and new home starts are 115.20 million units [10]. - **Consumption Data**: Retail sales increased by 4.71% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.55% year - on - year and decreased by 0.14% month - on - month [10]. - **Industrial Data**: The industrial production index increased by 0.60% year - on - year and decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.43% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2,298.55 tons, the US's are 8,133.46 tons, and the world's are 36,250.15 tons. The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounts for 19.83%, and the RMB accounts for 2.18% [10][11]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, the VIX index is 17.52, the CRB commodity index is 302.70, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1738 [11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided [12].

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that potential inflation in the U.S. remains relatively mild, although price pressures are expected to increase during the summer months, with July and August CPI reports being critical [1] - BlackRock notes that the U.S. CPI shows early signs of tariff-driven price increases, particularly in household appliances and entertainment products, suggesting that the full impact of tariffs has yet to materialize [1] - Bank of America reports that 38% of investors view a trade war-induced global recession as the biggest tail risk event, while 20% cite inflation hindering Fed rate cuts as the second-largest risk [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - Bank of America finds that 34% of investors believe shorting the dollar is currently the most crowded trade, marking a shift from previous preferences for gold [4] - A significant 59% of investors now believe a recession is unlikely, a notable change from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing for the economy [5] - Bank of America also reports a record increase in investor positions in euros, with a net 20% of investors overweight in euros, the highest since January 2005 [6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - ING analysts expect the Eurozone economy to receive some support from a rebound in factory output, driven by preemptive stockpiling ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs [7] - ING also warns that if France fails to implement spending cuts to reduce the budget deficit, the euro may face downward pressure [10] - Citic Securities highlights the investment value in the energy storage sector, driven by ongoing market reforms and the establishment of a capacity pricing mechanism [13]