Core Viewpoint - The bond market has become the main battlefield for asset allocation among small and medium-sized banks amid the "asset shortage" dilemma, with significant fluctuations in trading volumes observed throughout the year [1][2][4]. Trading Activity - In March, the total trading volume of bonds by city and rural commercial banks exceeded 17 trillion yuan, marking a 42% month-on-month increase, with nearly 350,000 transactions, a 30% increase [2]. - However, trading enthusiasm cooled in April and May, with trading volumes declining by 8.6% and 7.9% respectively, and a notable 9.5% drop in transaction counts in May [4][5]. - By July, trading volumes rebounded, reaching 17.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the trading volumes of larger banks [7]. Investment Trends - The bond investment amount of Chinese small and medium-sized banks has been steadily increasing, reaching 46.44 trillion yuan by the end of June, with a year-to-date increase of 3.6 trillion yuan [5][11]. - Despite the overall decline in trading enthusiasm, city and rural commercial banks have shown a strong demand for bond investments, driven by insufficient loan demand and a shrinking credit supply [1][10]. Market Dynamics - The concentration of quality credit resources in larger banks has limited the opportunities for small and medium-sized banks to secure quality corporate loans, prompting them to favor liquid and low-risk bonds [7]. - The bond market has experienced a bull market trend, making bond trading and investment a rational choice for small banks [7][10]. Future Outlook - The trend of small and medium-sized banks increasing bond investments is expected to continue, with a focus on enhancing asset-liability management and exploring opportunities in specialized financial services [10][12]. - The People's Bank of China has acknowledged the stabilizing role of small banks in the bond market, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to investment returns and risk [11].

5日，A股市场全天震荡走高，沪指收涨0.96%重回3600点上方，再创年内收盘新高，全市场超3900只个 股上涨。银行板块在当天午后震荡走强，中证银行指数全天涨1.6%，报8087.4点，个股全线飘红。 其中，浦发银行以4.72%涨幅领涨，齐鲁银行涨幅接近3%，常熟银行、浙商银行、江阴银行、民生银 行、青岛银行、农业银行等10余只个股涨幅超过2%。其中，农业银行A股股价续创新高，收报6.54元/ 股。 债券利息恢复征税，如何影响机构对银行股的配置策略？ 8月5日，A股银行板块再度震荡走强，尤其随着农业银行股价续创新高，市场上不乏"银行股又行了"的 调侃。在此之前，银行股经历了半个多月的回调，中证银行指数在7月中下旬累计跌超7%，后市分歧加 大。 对于近期银行股反弹，有机构人士对第一财经表示，"资产荒"背景下，银行股的稳定分红依然具有较强 吸引力，高位回调让不少个股性价比提升。"国债、地方债、金融债利息收入恢复征税，比价效应下， 非银机构尤其保险资金长期增配银行股的动力可能会更强。"该人士表示。 另从业绩快报和机构预测来看，银行业今年上半年业绩较一季度大概率会略有改善。目前披露上半年业 绩快报的5家区域性银行中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current VAT policy on bonds is short - term positive and long - term neutral. In the short term, it is beneficial to existing bonds, potentially triggering a pre - layout market for "snapping up old bonds." However, the expected continued decline in interest rates on Monday did not occur, as the improvement in the stock market weakened the bond market, and the "rumor" of the China Development Bank bonds drove up the long - term Treasury bond rates. In the medium term, the policy impact on the bond market tends to be neutral. Despite the intention to divert funds to the stock market, the trend of funds chasing the bond market is difficult to completely reverse due to the "asset shortage" and loose liquidity [2][3][21][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Bonds Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Interest Rates**: In the week of August 1st, after a slight increase at the end of July, the funds interest rates started to decline. DR001 reached 1.46% on July 28th and then fluctuated down to 1.31%, with a weekly fluctuation of 15BP; R001 rose to 1.56% on July 31st and dropped to 1.35% on August 1st, with a weekly fluctuation of 21BP. DR007 fell from 1.58% on July 28th to 1.42% on August 1st, a decline of 16BP; FR007 dropped from 1.64% to 1.50%, a weekly decline of 14BP [8] - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase volume increased slightly to 1.66 trillion yuan, with a similar total maturity volume. The net capital injection was small, and the daily net injection decreased gradually [8] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread slightly decreased. The US 6 - month SOFR rate rose from 4.20% on July 28th to 4.24% on August 1st; the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.61%. As of August 1st, the 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 263BP, with a slightly wider inversion; the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads were - 227BP and - 252BP respectively, with a slight reduction in the long - and short - term spreads [13] - **Term Spreads**: The term spread of Chinese bonds slightly contracted, while that of US bonds slightly expanded. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.43%, and the 10 - year was 1.71%, with the 10 - 2 year spread narrowing from 30BP to 28BP. The US bond yield slightly declined, with the 2 - year yield rising to 3.94% and then dropping 25BP to 3.69% on August 1st, and the 10 - year yield dropping 19BP to 4.23%. The 10 - 2 year term spread of US bonds widened 3BP to 54BP [16] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yield curve of Chinese bonds steepened, while that of US bonds flattened and shifted downward. The overall change in the Chinese bond yield curve was small, with the 3 - month yield dropping 2BP and the 3 - 5 year yields dropping about 1 - 2BP. Except for the 3 - month yield, the overall US bond yields dropped about 20BP [16] 3.2 Key Bond Market Events Last Week - **New Policy on Bond Interest Taxation**: On August 1st, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8th, the interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The interest income from bonds issued before August 8th and the continued issuance after that date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity [23][24] - **Weak PMI Data**: The National Bureau of Statistics data showed that the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In July, the manufacturing industry entered the traditional off - season, and factors such as high temperatures and floods in some areas led to the decline of PMI data [24]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is experiencing a significant recovery in 2025 after a four-year downturn, with over 90% of active equity funds achieving positive returns this year, leading to increased confidence among fund managers and a revival in fund issuance [1][3]. Fund Performance - Active equity funds have seen an average return of over 13% year-to-date, with a notable number of funds doubling their performance, including 17 funds that achieved over 140% returns as of July 29 [3]. - Despite some funds still recovering from previous losses, the short-term performance rebound is expected to support long-term growth [3]. - More than 800 active equity funds reached historical net asset value highs in the past month, indicating a strong recovery [3]. Fund Manager Sentiment - Fund managers are showing increased risk appetite, with many raising stock positions and focusing on core holdings [7][8]. - A significant number of funds have increased their stock positions by 5 to 8 percentage points, particularly in technology and growth sectors, as they anticipate improving profit growth in the latter half of the year [8][10]. Fund Issuance Trends - The positive performance has led to a noticeable acceleration in the issuance of new funds, particularly equity funds, with a significant increase in marketing efforts [12]. - In June, 155 new funds were established, marking a near-record high, and 135 funds were launched in July, indicating a robust recovery in the fund issuance market [13]. - Fund companies are rapidly increasing the pace of new fund launches to capitalize on the market rebound, with 149 new funds initiated in July alone [13]. Investor Behavior - Despite the positive performance, many investors remain cautious, with a tendency to redeem funds once they break even, indicating a trust gap that needs to be addressed for sustained growth [1][14]. - The demand for passive investment products is currently outpacing that for active equity funds, with high-performance products attracting more interest than stable ones [14].

新华财经北京8月4日电（王菁）债市周一（8月4日）走势反复，上周修复行情并未得到平稳延续，市场 对国债税率调整的预期仍在"摇摆"，长债午后率先调整，国债期货主力合约下探后回升至平盘附近，银 行间现券收益率上行1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放490亿元，资金利率月初普遍回落。 机构认为，虽然基本面和资产荒的大格局决定债市总体向好，调整空间有限。但也需要看到，随着票息 不断下行，市场行为的演变导致市场脆弱性在上升。如果其他市场涨势温和，并且需求继续放缓，货币 宽松预期将提升，利率有望再创新低。 【行情跟踪】 欧元区市场方面，当地时间8月1日，欧债收益率收盘涨跌不一，10年期英债收益率涨1.3BP报4.577%， 10年期法债收益率跌0.2BP报3.346%，10年期德债收益率涨2BPs报2.710%，10年期意债收益率涨0.6BP 报3.542%，10年期西债收益率涨4.7BPs报3.272%。 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.08%报119.190，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.470，5年 期主力合约跌0.01%报105.715，2年期主力合约持平于102.352。 银行间主要利率债收益率午 ...

Group 1 - The total scale of wealth management products exceeded 30 trillion yuan, but the growth rate has slowed down. As of June 30, 2025, the total scale was 30.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan from the end of 2024, with a growth rate of 2.4%, down from 7.5% year-on-year [1][11][13] - The scale and proportion of wealth management companies continued to rise, while the scale of banking institutions continued to shrink. By June 30, 2025, the scale of wealth management products from wealth management companies was 27.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.17 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.6% of the total [2][13][14] Group 2 - Fixed income products remain dominant, accounting for 97.20% of the total wealth management products, although this proportion has slightly decreased. Mixed products have seen a slight increase in proportion [2][17][18] - The scale of cash management products has declined, while the scale of non-cash management products has continued to rise. As of June 30, 2025, open-ended products accounted for 80.93% of the total, with cash management products at 20.87% and non-cash management products at 60.06% [2][19][20] - The average duration of newly issued closed-end products has increased, with the proportion of closed-end products with a duration of over one year rising to 72.86% [2][23][24] Group 3 - The total investment assets of wealth management products reached 32.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.84 trillion yuan from the end of 2024, with a leverage ratio of 107.45% [3][30][36] - The scale of bond investments has decreased compared to the end of last year, while the proportion of deposits and public funds has increased significantly. As of June 30, 2025, bond investments accounted for 55.60% of total investment assets [4][31][34] - There has been a reduction in credit bond holdings, with a decrease of 0.42 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, while the holdings of interest rate bonds increased by 0.24 trillion yuan [5][42][44] Group 4 - In the future, the relative yield advantage of wealth management products will still have certain attractiveness, supporting the growth of the wealth management scale in the short term. However, the growth rate may slow down in the medium to long term due to the decline in underlying asset yields [6][46]

7月，中小行的做债热情创出了年内新高。 证券时报记者梳理银行间同业拆借中心的现券买卖数据发现，今年7月，城农商行合计现券交易金额再 次突破17万亿元大关（上一次是在一季度末），约为17.24万亿元，继续领先于大行和股份行的合计数 据。 这背后，是有效贷款需求不足、信贷投放缩量、大行下沉挤压、跨区展业受限等因素的叠加作用，让中 小行更有通过金融投资（尤其是债券投资）来扩容资产、扩充收益的冲动。有两家西部城农商行的相关 人士向记者表示，上半年尤其是二季度资产规模的增量，有相当大的部分依靠"投债"。 近日，证券时报记者查阅银行间同业拆借中心的相关数据，复盘年初至今各机构主体现券买卖表现（即 买卖方向交易的总和）。现券品种包括政金债、国债、同业存单、地方政府债、中期票据、二级资本工 具、超短融、非资本债券（TLAC债券）、资产支持票据等。 数据显示，今年前7个月，城商行的现券买卖规模分别为64552.77亿元、74994.44亿元、104174.19亿 元、89224.96亿元、86214.04亿元、100534.48亿元、109175.2亿元；同期，农商行的现券买卖规模则分 别为44457.04亿元、45297.6 ...

Core Insights - In July, the enthusiasm for bond trading among small and medium-sized banks reached a new high for the year, with total trading volume exceeding 17 trillion yuan, driven by factors such as insufficient loan demand and credit contraction [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Trading Performance - The total bond trading volume for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showed strong momentum, consistently exceeding that of large and joint-stock banks since March [3] - In the first seven months of the year, city commercial banks' bond trading volumes were 64,552.77 billion yuan, 74,994.44 billion yuan, 104,174.19 billion yuan, 89,224.96 billion yuan, 86,214.04 billion yuan, 100,534.48 billion yuan, and 109,175.2 billion yuan, while rural commercial banks' volumes were 44,457.04 billion yuan, 45,297.66 billion yuan, 66,608.66 billion yuan, 66,788.82 billion yuan, 57,406.44 billion yuan, 62,537.76 billion yuan, and 63,199.86 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Investment Trends - The proportion of financial investment assets in total assets for listed banks reached a near-high of 30%, with 30 banks exceeding this threshold [4][5] - Chongqing Bank saw a significant increase in financial investment assets, rising by 1,227 billion yuan to 3,859 billion yuan, with its proportion of total assets increasing by 7.71 percentage points to 41.42% [5][6] Group 3: Revenue Structure and Market Dynamics - The trend of "selling bonds to boost revenue" has emerged, with many banks reporting significant increases in investment income, with some banks seeing growth rates exceeding 100% [7][8] - The central bank emphasized the importance of bond investments for banks, noting that while they can support fiscal policy and the real economy, banks must maintain a balance between investment returns and risk [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The REITs market is experiencing significant growth, with the market trading volume reaching 806 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 46.81%, and the trading value reaching 3.614 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.64% [3][26][28] - The Central Enterprise Natural Gas Power Public REIT has successfully listed, marking a significant step in revitalizing quality clean energy assets and innovating financing models [4][12] - The REITs sector is expected to continue to offer good investment opportunities due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds into the market [3][5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI REITs closing index for the 31st week of 2025 is 870.82, up 6.76% year-on-year and up 1.25% month-on-month [5][14] - The CSI REITs total return index is 1100.9, up 16.53% year-on-year and up 1.25% month-on-month [19] Weekly Performance - Weekly performance for various REITs sectors shows: affordable housing +3.87%, environmental +0.65%, highway +0.14%, industrial park -0.02%, warehousing and logistics +1.45%, energy +1.62%, and consumption +3.98% [36] Primary Tracking - There are currently 13 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating a vibrant issuance market [6][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's repair period will continue. In the first stage, interest rates will return to the pre - adjustment level. Whether they can break through new lows depends on the performance of other markets and fundamental pressures. It is expected that the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term. If other markets have moderate growth and demand continues to slow, interest rates may hit new lows [7][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Repair Situation - This week, the bond market started a repair rally as expected, with yields across all tenors generally declining. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds dropped by 2.7bps and 2.3bps to 1.71% and 1.95% respectively. The repair of credit bonds was more significant, with the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds falling by 7.8bps and 6.4bps to 1.85% and 1.95% respectively. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit also dropped by 3.6bps to 1.64% [1][9]. - The direct trigger for the bond market repair was the cooling of supply contraction expectations and the correction in commodities and the stock market. The Politburo meeting's mild stance on over - capacity governance led to a 3.8% decline in the Nanhua Industrial Products Index this week, and the stock market also adjusted, reducing risk appetite [1][9]. Fundamental Factors Affecting the Bond Market - Fundamentally, there is an increasing downward pressure. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with a larger seasonal decline than in previous years. The new orders index dropped 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The service and construction PMIs also weakened, falling 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points to 50.0% and 50.6% respectively [2][10]. - Without sufficient demand, price increases are mostly structural, and terminal prices are unlikely to rise significantly. Rising upstream prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the mid - and downstream sectors, and the cost is often passed on to the mid - and downstream industries, compressing their profits. Supply contraction also reduces investment and financing demand, not directly pushing up interest rates [2][15]. Bond Market's Own Conditions - The overall asset shortage situation persists. In terms of capital demand, there is a slowdown pressure. The bill rate has weakened significantly, with the 6 - month state - owned bill re - discount rate reaching a new low of 0.4% this week, indicating weak credit demand. Government bond supply will also decrease, with the remaining net financing of government bonds in the next five months expected to be 4.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease [3][16]. - In terms of capital supply, it remains abundant. The scales of bank deposits, insurance assets, wealth management products, and bond funds are all steadily increasing. The central bank has stated that it will maintain ample liquidity, and the current loose money situation is expected to continue [3][16]. Impact of Treasury Tax Rate Adjustment - The adjustment of the treasury tax rate is mostly a one - time impact, increasing the tax burden on financial institutions such as banks. It benefits old bonds and is negative for financial bonds and new bonds. The new - old bond yield spread may widen by 5.6 - 10.8bps, and the estimated total tax increase is 31.55 billion yuan, mainly borne by banks. Public funds may gain a 3.08% tax advantage in interest income in the short term, but future tax adjustments for public funds need further observation [4][18]. Market Volatility and Fragility - Although the overall situation is favorable for the bond market, market volatility and fragility are increasing. As coupon rates decline, the proportion of trading positions is rising, and market institutions are extending durations to increase capital gains. In the second quarter, the average durations of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds and medium - and long - term credit - bond funds increased significantly by 0.81 years and 0.94 years respectively, the largest single - quarter increase on record [5][19].