变局加速，机遇涌动！走过充满韧性的 2024 ，中国经济正以"新质生产力"为引擎，在 2025 年深化转型。政策红利持续释放，资本市场改革深化，外资加速回流人工智能、高端制造、绿 色能源等新经济赛道，一场以"新质"为核心的估值重构已然展开。 然而，全球棋局波谲云诡：地缘冲突未息、货币政策分化、供应链重塑承压、多国政治周期叠 加 ……如何在百年大变局的深化期，把握未来航向？ 2025 年下半年，机遇与风险并存，投 资者如何优化策略，行稳致远？ 答案，就在深圳！ 深度剖析全球与中国经济核心变局； 前瞻 "新质生产力"驱动的投资主脉络； 拆解复杂环境下的风险与机遇； 共话资本市场改革红利与布局良机； TOP 级机构（合计管理超千亿）分享投资策略和方向。 这是一场智慧碰撞的盛宴，一次拨云见日的集结！ 与远见者同行，与担当者共进！ 2025 年 7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇 2025 中期策略峰会 将再度点亮鹏城！ 我们力邀顶尖思想领袖与实战精英，为您： 请注意， 7 月 5 日全天的全球机构投资者思享会为收费活动，前排预留席位金额： 6 88/ 人 （早鸟价，原价 1 088/ 人）， 限额前 7 2 位！已无名 ...

2024 年，乐自天成旗下产品 GMV 为 9.3 亿元，营业收入为 6.3 亿元，经调整净利润为 0.32 亿元。这家被认为最像泡泡玛特的潮玩企业，实际 GMV 却 不及泡泡玛特的十分之一，甚至与不久前上市的拼搭玩具龙头布鲁可相比，乐自天成的营收体量也存在较大差距。 那么，乐自天成能否成为今年港股另一个新爆点？又是否具有与泡泡玛特掰手腕的实力？ 以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者范亮 丁卯 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 赶上了好时候。 文 ｜ 范亮 编辑 ｜ 丁卯 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 5 月 22 日， 52TOYS 的母公司乐自天成向港交所递交招股说明书，成为继泡泡玛特、布鲁可、卡游之后第四家冲刺 IPO 的潮玩企业。 定位"多而全" 在基础的品牌理念和品牌定位上，乐自天成与泡泡玛特就存在根本性的差异。 乐自天成的品牌主张是 "玩点有趣的"，品牌愿景是" 做一家伟大的玩具公司 "，强调 玩具与用户的交互 ；泡泡玛特的品牌理念是 "创造潮流，传递美好 " ，愿景是 "成为全球领先的潮流文化娱乐公司"， 强调用户情感层 ...

Group 1 - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 1.6 trillion, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3450 points for the year [1] - The brokerage sector experienced a substantial rise, driven by the acquisition of a virtual asset license by Guotai Junan International, alongside industry consolidation, regulatory reforms, and low valuations as the main catalysts for the increase [1] - The outlook for the brokerage sector remains positive, with a focus on holding positions after valuations become reasonable [1] Group 2 - Attention is drawn to two key factors: the impending deadline of July 9 for US tariff negotiations, which may impact China based on outcomes with Europe and Japan, and the emphasis on technological independence and domestic demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - There are multiple industry news, company earnings, and international developments that warrant attention [1]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq 100 index increased by 1.4% on June 24, 2025, while major U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching a new high, indicating strong performance among large tech stocks [1] - According to Zhongyin International, major U.S. indices experienced slight declines this week, with the S&P 500 down by 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 remaining flat compared to the previous week [1] - The Nasdaq 100 index has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.5, with a Z-Score of 0.8, suggesting that its valuation is above historical averages, reflecting a resilient performance in the tech sector despite rising market risk aversion [1] Group 2 - The MSCI Global Index fell by 0.4%, and the MSCI Developed Markets (excluding the U.S.) index decreased by 1.4%, while the Nasdaq 100's flat performance outperformed most market indices [1] - The Nasdaq ETF tracks the total return index of the Nasdaq 100, which includes the performance of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq, accounting for dividend reinvestment [1] - The index's constituent stocks are primarily concentrated in technology, healthcare, and consumer services sectors, providing a comprehensive reflection of the overall market performance of large growth-oriented companies in the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Several banks' convertible bonds are approaching forced redemption due to rising stock prices, leading to a significant reduction in the market size of bank convertible bonds [2][3][9] Group 1: Convertible Bond Redemption - Qilu Bank announced that its convertible bond is expected to meet redemption conditions due to a surge in stock price, potentially making it the fourth bank bond to be redeemed this year [2] - The stock price of Qilu Bank has been above 130% of the conversion price for 10 out of the last 15 trading days, which could trigger the redemption clause if the trend continues [3] - Nanjing Bank and Hangzhou Bank have also announced early redemption of their convertible bonds, with specific dates for the last trading and conversion days [4][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Supply Dynamics - The total outstanding amount of bank convertible bonds has decreased significantly from nearly 300 billion to approximately 150 billion, with market share dropping from 38.97% to about 22.64% [9] - The supply of new convertible bonds has been constrained due to regulatory scrutiny and the long-term undervaluation of bank stocks, leading to a scarcity of existing bonds [9] - Institutional investors are adjusting their strategies, reducing exposure to bank convertible bonds while seeking alternative high-yield assets [9] Group 3: Performance and Investor Behavior - The strong performance of bank stocks has been a key driver for the forced redemption of convertible bonds, as rising stock prices enhance the conversion value [8] - The market for bank convertible bonds is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with fewer new issues leading to increased valuations for existing bonds [8] - As several convertible bonds approach redemption, the overall market size is expected to shrink further, impacting investment strategies [8][9]

Group 1: Overall Market Insights - The light industry sector shows significant differentiation in 2025H1, with new consumption sectors like millet economy and personal care performing well, while traditional industries like home furnishings and paper face pressure [1] - The light industry manufacturing sector has a year-to-date decline of 0.89%, ranking 14th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, but has outperformed the CSI 300 index with a relative return of +3.08% [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The rise of self-indulgent consumption is noted, with high growth potential in sectors driven by emotional value, such as national trend culture and technology-enabled scenarios [2] - Traditional companies are adapting to high-growth trends by leveraging their channel and supply chain advantages to achieve rapid growth in new business areas [2] Group 3: Home Furnishings Sector - The home furnishings sector faces pressure from tariffs, but retail sales growth is expected to exceed 20% due to national subsidies [3] - The opening pace of new stores is slowing, with companies adopting strategies to capture fragmented customer demand [3] Group 4: Export Chain Dynamics - The impact of tariffs on the export chain is limited, with companies accelerating exports to the U.S. and experiencing a rise in shipping costs [4] - Future tariff impacts are anticipated to be minimal due to capacity release in Vietnam and cost pass-through strategies [4] Group 5: Paper Industry Insights - The paper industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, with fixed asset investment in 2024 expected to grow by 18.5% year-on-year [5] - The cost dynamics are shifting, with pulp prices peaking and stabilizing supply-demand for cultural paper [5] Group 6: Packaging Sector Overview - The metal packaging market is experiencing low capital expenditure and profitability, but industry consolidation is expected to improve margins [6] - Yutong Technology has established a global presence with over 40 production bases, which may mitigate tariff risks [6]

特斯拉的 Model Y 在 2025 年 1 月迎来了改版，当前的价格是 26.35 万元（标准版）/31.35 万元（长续航版）。 小米 YU7 的定价基本贴着 Model Y，价格带吻合， 将形成直接竞争。此外，小米高性能双电机四驱的 Max 版本定价达到 32.99 万元，高于 Model Y 长续航版，也体现了 $小米集团(ADR)(XIACY.US) 对自身产品的 信心。 将小米 YU7 与主要竞争对手进行对比：①小米 YU7 的电池容量高于同行竞品，具有明显的续航优势；②小米 YU7 全产品配备全景显示 P-HUD；③智驾方面，小 米 YU7 采用英伟达 Thor 芯片，算力接近于新版 Model Y，领先于其他竞品。小米 YU7 比 Model Y 多搭载了 1 颗激光雷达。 换句话说，相近的价格下，买小米 YU7 会比 Model Y 拥有更好的配置。此前国产品牌都难以撼动 Model Y 的市场地位，小米 YU7 的推出，有望给特斯拉的 SUV 在中国市场带来真正的挑战。 | | 小米YU7 | Model Y | 小劇G9 | 极氮7X | 智界R7 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on June 27, with the Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF (513160) rising by 1.25% and quickly surpassing a transaction volume of 1 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W saw a surge of over 5%, with other stocks like Kingsoft Cloud, SMIC, and Lenovo Holdings also experiencing gains [1] - The Hong Kong Technology 30 ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Technology Index, which reflects the performance of mainland companies engaged in technology business and listed in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - Recent improvements in liquidity and growth have broken the undervaluation phenomenon in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to a significant recovery in valuations [2] - The average daily trading volume and net inflow of southbound funds have increased substantially, with public funds showing a growing preference for Hong Kong stocks, reaching a historical high of 13.51% in the first quarter of 2025 for actively managed equity funds [2] - The return of Chinese concept stocks has notably enhanced the growth potential of the Hong Kong market, with the market capitalization of the top 10 Chinese technology giants listed in Hong Kong accounting for approximately 34% of the total market [2]

广发证券指出，2021年以来，国内10年期国债利率持续下行，并跌破长期震荡中枢 （2.8%~4.5%），进入低利率时代。从海外经验看，利率下行阶段能否抬升估值取决于基本面状态：若 经济企稳但未显著复苏（如2012年后的日本、法德），利率下行可带来估值大幅抬升；若经济通缩，则 宽松环境不足以扭转盈利预期，估值可能继续回落。当前，A股6%~7%的ROE水平对应2倍PB处于合理 区间，但行业分化明显。经济周期类资产估值合理但ROE难显著回升；稳定类资产在利率中枢下行背景 下有提升空间，需等待6月"逆风期"过后配置；成长类资产更偏交易性，关注中报预期向好的海外AI算 力链、对欧出口及涨价链等方向。 十年国债ETF（511260）采用优化抽样复制策略，紧密跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取流动性较好 的国债构建组合，目前组合平均久期为7.6年；每日公布PCF清单，持仓透明，适合追求稳健的中长期 资金作为底仓配置。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the valuation rectification of bank wealth management is entering a critical phase, with multiple institutions steadily advancing their work in accordance with regulatory requirements [1] - Since the issuance of regulatory notifications in December last year, banks have been actively responding to complete their semi-annual rectification plans by the end of June [1] - After the rectification is completed, wealth management products will no longer use methods to smooth net value fluctuations, and investors will need to face real market volatility risks directly [1] Group 2 - The progress of the rectification work shows significant differentiation among institutions, with some banks in southern China having completed their tasks ahead of schedule, while others strictly follow the regulatory timeline [3] - Many wealth management companies are focusing on resolving the closing price valuation issue, which has become the main content of their current work [3] - Regulatory authorities have prohibited wealth management companies from using methods such as closing price adjustments or self-built valuation models to smooth net value fluctuations, requiring the use of third-party valuations [3] Group 3 - The completion of the rectification will lead to a new normal of increased net value fluctuations for bank wealth management products, as investors will directly bear the value changes of underlying assets [4] - The fundamental change in the valuation method for bond assets is a core aspect of this rectification, moving away from using closing prices to a more accurate market value approach [4] - The new valuation system will reflect the fair market value more accurately, ensuring that product net values can promptly synchronize with market changes [4] Group 4 - Bank wealth management companies have begun to adjust their performance comparison benchmarks to guide investors' expectations, with over a hundred products having completed benchmark adjustments [5] - Some products have seen benchmark reductions exceeding 150 basis points, indicating a shift towards a more realistic net value fluctuation environment [5] - The new norm will be that net values of wealth management products will follow market conditions closely, requiring investors to adapt to this more authentic volatility [5]