全球大型资管机构们正在把印度股票市场视为对冲AI泡沫破裂风险的首选市场标的，随着近期甲骨文、英伟达以及博通等 近年来受益于AI热潮的科技巨头们股价大幅下跌，市场对于AI泡沫破裂的担忧情绪显著升温，惧怕出现"堪比2000年互联 网泡沫破裂时期的科技股熊市暴跌轨迹"。而印度市场，正引起全球对冲基金经理们的新增关注，他们希望在来年分散股 票投资风险。 来自欧洲的资管巨头Aberdeen Group Plc认为印度股票明年会出现反弹;另外两家资管巨头Principal Asset Management Co.与 Eastspring Investments则认为，印度市场与"AI叙事"交易的相关性较低，可作为对冲其他股市(尤其是科技股集中度很高的 股市——比如美国、韩国以及中国台湾)的重要工具。来自汇丰与Jefferies Financial Group Inc.的资深策略师们也表达了类 似观点。 全球资金开始将印度股市视为抵御人工智能风险的对冲工具 "印度在2026年可以成为投资组合中一个很好的分散化与多元化资产配置，因为它与其他偏向AI的大型市场的相关性较 低，而AI交易热潮一旦暂停，资金就会大规模流向印度，"P ...

智通财经APP了解到，从英伟达到上周公布业绩的甲骨文和博通，它们业绩数据出炉之后，即使核心业绩指标全线超 预期，也未能强化所谓的股票市场"AI牛市叙事"同时也未能提振全球投资者们对于科技股的"AI信仰"。 终于在上周五，这种怀疑情绪全面大爆发，导致甲骨文、英伟达以及博通等2022年末以来受益于AI投资热潮的热门科 技股股价集体暴跌。华尔街顶级投资机构们对于美股七大科技巨头(即Magnificent Seven)所主导的这股史无前例的全球 AI投资热潮持续性愈发质疑，认为杀伤力比肩当年"互联网泡沫"的所谓"AI泡沫"正在形成。更重要的是，这些顶级机 构开始押注"是哪些重大事件/重要时刻可能会把泡沫彻底戳破。 距离OpenAI发布风靡全球的ChatGPT引发全球人工智能投资狂热以及全球企业布局AI的超级热潮，已经过去三年有 余。虽然仍有资金涌向英伟达、博通以及谷歌、甲骨文、美光等等受益于AI投资狂热的AI算力产业链领军者们，但是 市场对于这波股票市场AI繁荣能否持续的疑虑也在加深，一些投资者认为这轮AI投资热潮的"最好时光"已经结束。 从"AI芯片超级霸主"、"地球最重要股票"英伟达公布无比强劲的业绩也未能阻止股 ...

上周五，一则关于数据中心建设可能延迟的消息，让数据库巨头甲骨文的股价在持续下跌中再次受挫， 也进一步加深了投资者对AI泡沫的担忧。 比股价波动更值得玩味的，是公司声明的文字游戏：它只否认了"合同规定必须完成的时间节点"有延 迟，却对公众更关心的"整体项目时间表"是否推迟避而不谈。 在资本一头热地追捧未来故事，而技术落地艰难、商业回报存疑之间，一道天堑正在显现。 01 不寻常的信号 过去两年，任何与"AI算力"沾边的公司，都能轻松从资本市场获得惊人的高估值。 甲骨文就是其中的"代表"：它与OpenAI达成的价值千亿美元级别的基础设施合作协议，曾一度将其市 值推高数千亿美元，并使创始人拉里·埃里森短暂成为世界首富。 股票投资者似乎买下了一个确定的未来：AI需求无限，算力就是力量，投资核心基础设施就等于投资 新时代的"卖水人"。 然而，就在股票市场沉醉于转型故事的同时，离风险更近的信用市场，却发出了截然不同的警告。 在甲骨文延迟传闻发酵的一周内，为其债务违约提供保险的信用违约互换价格飙升至五年新高。CDS市 场的交易员，素有"金融世界金丝雀"之称，他们凭借对结构性风险的敏锐嗅觉，曾在2008年金融危机前 率先行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market compared to the US and A-share markets, highlighting the sensitivity of the Hong Kong market to liquidity changes and its structural differences, which have led to its underperformance since late November 2025 [2][6][29]. Group 1: Market Performance Analysis - Since early 2025, the markets in the US, Hong Kong, and A-shares have shown a quarterly switching pattern, with the Hong Kong market lagging behind in recent months [2][4]. - As of late November, the Hang Seng Index has declined by 2.2%, while the A-share and US markets have shown positive returns, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up by 5.5% and 6.9%, respectively [2][4]. - The article notes that the Hong Kong market's recent weakness is attributed to its heightened sensitivity to liquidity changes and structural differences compared to the other markets [6][29]. Group 2: Liquidity Factors - A slowdown in southbound capital inflows has been observed, with net inflows dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to below 1 billion HKD per day since late November [7]. - External liquidity has also been a concern, with recent data indicating a net outflow of 4.6 billion USD from Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, while A-shares saw a slight inflow of 0.2 billion USD [9]. - The article emphasizes that the Hong Kong market's reliance on external liquidity makes it more vulnerable to changes in investor sentiment and market conditions [6][9]. Group 3: Structural Characteristics - The Hong Kong market's structure is heavily weighted towards technology and consumer sectors, with a significant focus on new consumption and internet applications, which are more sensitive to market sentiment [16][21]. - The article highlights that the technology sector in Hong Kong is primarily application-focused, lacking the hardware component that provides more stability in the A-share market [19][21]. - Consumer spending in Hong Kong is currently under pressure due to a weak credit cycle and stagnant income expectations, making it difficult for the consumption sector to drive market performance [20][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the Hong Kong market's performance will depend on the recovery of the credit cycle and the ability to attract foreign investment, particularly in light of the expected liquidity conditions in the US and A-share markets [29][30]. - It is noted that the Hong Kong market may benefit from structural opportunities in sectors like AI and dividends, but these require positive catalysts to materialize [40][42]. - The overall outlook for 2026 indicates that while the US credit cycle may recover, the Chinese credit cycle faces challenges, which could further impact the Hong Kong market's performance [30][37].

Core Insights - The report highlights the shifting dynamics among the US, A-share, and Hong Kong markets, indicating a "seesaw" effect where one market's performance impacts the others. The first quarter saw a revaluation of Chinese assets led by DeepSeek, while the second quarter was characterized by strong performance in US stocks driven by AI leaders and capital expenditure growth [1][2] - Since late November, Hong Kong stocks have underperformed compared to US and A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing declines of 2.2% and 0.7% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and US indices posted gains [2][3] - The report attributes the recent weakness of Hong Kong stocks to their sensitivity to liquidity changes and structural differences, with a notable slowdown in southbound capital inflows and external liquidity support [3][4] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital inflows have decreased significantly, with a 10-day moving average dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to below 1 billion HKD, leading to concerns about potential fund outflows due to regulatory changes [3][4] - External liquidity has also been a concern, with active foreign capital flowing out of Hong Kong while inflows into A-shares have continued. The report notes that recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have contributed to a lack of external liquidity support for Hong Kong stocks [3][4] - Despite the short-term liquidity disturbances, the report suggests that the fundamental weakness in the market has amplified negative sentiment, particularly in the context of the unique industry structure of Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, primarily focused on internet applications in Hong Kong, faces concerns over an AI bubble, while A-shares benefit from a higher proportion of hardware-related stocks, providing stronger support [5][6] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong, particularly discretionary spending, is struggling due to weak domestic consumption recovery and a declining credit cycle, which limits its potential as a market driver [5][6] - The cyclical sector has shown some strength, particularly in metals, but its overall weight in the Hong Kong market is low, limiting its ability to provide substantial support [5][6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Hong Kong stocks will be more sensitive to liquidity and fundamental changes, with potential for stronger performance if the credit cycle improves and risk appetite increases [5][6] - Historical patterns indicate that Hong Kong stocks tend to outperform during periods of fundamental recovery and ample liquidity, but recent trends suggest a need to consider structural differences among the markets [6][7] - For 2026, the report emphasizes the importance of liquidity, fundamental conditions, and structural opportunities in determining market performance, with a focus on the potential for recovery in the US credit cycle and the challenges facing the Chinese credit cycle [9][10]

策 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 14 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 美国 AI 泡沫风险可能与全球美元债务风险同步 释放——周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 中美算力芯片博弈是全球科技长期通缩的重要标志。 2、 美国 AI 泡沫一旦破灭，全球美元债务风险有望同步释放。 3、 关注美元可能阶段性走强所指引的风险信号，随后可能出现 美元美债美股三杀。 4、 中国市场有望在海外风险释放过程中进行风格上的长期大切 换，同时伴随人民币持续大幅升值。 告 5、 长期看好保险，央国企红利，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军 贸。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、医疗与消费周报——创新药行业研发突破与市 场演进并行——2025.12.14 2、迈向"十五五"：稳中求进，新质领航——中 央 经 济 工 作 会 议 政 策 解 读 与 投 资 展 望 — — 2025.12.12 3、锚定提质增效，聚力八大任务——2025.12.12 风险提示 全球制造 ...

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 甲骨文绩后股价暴跌引发美股对AI板块大跌的市场情绪还没平复，周五晚的博通带来更大的惊魂夜。 因为部分数据没能让狂热的市场预期满意，博通绩后单日重挫11.43%，一举击溃市场信心。 雪上加霜的是，除了甲骨文和博通的业绩利空冲击，彭博也同时报道了甲骨文将部分为Open AI开发的数据中心的竣工时间从2027年 推迟至2028年的消息。 还有一家网红AI基建公司Fermi被爆重要客户取消租约导致股价盘中崩盘暴跌46%，引发更大恐慌。 联合冲击下，一股极为强烈的抛售潮迅速蔓延，光模块、交换机、电力、存储等一众AI产业链股跟随跳水，多只此前热门概念股如 Astera Labs、Core Weave、Coherent 等跌幅都超过了10%，最终美股纳指大跌1.91%。 一时间，"AI泡沫崩盘"的担忧在市场蔓延。 对于这一次越发强烈的AI抛售潮，我们应该更关注什么？ 暴跌真相 01 如何认真去研判甲骨文和博通的财报数据，其实可以发现AI行业的基本面还很稳固。 此次AI板块的全线大跌，核心逻辑绝非AI需求的突然收缩。 博通财报显示，未来18个月 ...

鼎好大厦A座2楼的具身智能训练场内，机械臂和人形机器人正在精准地执行着各种复杂任务。这里是智源研究院具身智能组探索人工智能边界的试验田。 在这里，能看到智源研究院30余家具身智能合作伙伴的机器，也能看到同一项任务更通用的解法。 去啃那些更前瞻性的研究，成为人工智能创新引领者，是智源研究院创立之初就定下的愿景。跟着智源研究院的科研布局，可以看到行业发展的趋势。作为 新型研究机构，智源研究院负责向创业公司提供"安卓操作系统"，让企业专心做硬件。这样的定位让其对模型、硬件、产业有着更清晰、中立的观察。 "具身智能的发展，应该先通过专用模型在特定场景落地，形成数据闭环，再逐步向通用化发展，而不是一开始就追求'万能具身'"，在与北京商报记者的交 流中，智源研究院院长王仲远多次表达了这一核心观点。让他担忧的是，具身智能订单的需求真伪、创业公司能否活下来。让他欣喜的是，资本市场用实际 行动证明了各方对具身智能的未来有了共识，技术、产业都在螺旋式上升。 Q：11月，黄仁勋、约书亚·本吉奥、李飞飞等六人同台讨论了AI泡沫等话题，您怎么看待AI泡沫？ A：和某些其他赛道不同，AI赛道本身是没有泡沫的，AI技术确实在实实在在地便利 ...

过去靠信仰，看准一个方向，单压一类资产就能躺赢的时代，或许真的已经走远。 深夜看似平静，资金却在暗涌。 当市场还在惊叹白银凌厉的涨势——年内飙涨近120%，直逼1979年以来最强表现。周五，一盘冷水就迎头浇下，COMEX白银自高位跳水5%。而早在11 月，市场就已流传摩根大通【囤积白银，空美元信用】的传言。风暴，从来不是突然降临。 黄金触及4386美元高位后急速回落100美元，率先修复的道指、罗素2000刷新历史高点后集体跳水。 AI赛道更是抛售重灾区：业绩超预期的博通暴跌11%，被爆出"数据中心建设推迟竣工"鬼故事的甲骨文再跌4%，较高点已回撤42%…… 黄金、白银、美股全线跳水的背后，资金的抛售情绪骤然浓郁，市场究竟在恐惧什么？ 草蛇灰线，伏脉千里。 与其被杂音干扰：一会儿"流动性紧张"，一会儿"鹰派降息"，一会儿"日本央行加息"，一会儿"AI泡沫"——不如回归最诚实的语言：K线。 真金白银画出的走势里，埋藏着当下全球市场几个关键变量。 1 10月高点后，谁在悄悄收复失地？ 从10月高点算起，不同资产的复苏节奏已经悄然分化： 最先收复失地的是白银、LME铜、日本东证指数、道指和罗素2000。标普500、C ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes the current AI boom is not a single bubble but rather an intertwining of valuation, investment, and technology bubbles [1][2][3] Valuation Bubble - The report indicates that the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings ratio has exceeded 40, nearing the 44 times level seen at the peak of the 2000 internet bubble, signaling potential market overheating [4] - Despite high overall valuations, these are primarily driven by profit growth rather than pure speculation, with the S&P 500 index operating within a 22.7% annual growth trend since October 2022 [6] - Large tech stocks have a valuation premium of about 60%, supported by over 20% profit growth differences [8] - Private companies exhibit significantly higher valuations, with OpenAI's revenue forecast for 2025 leading to a price-to-sales ratio of 38 times, and Anthropic at 44 times, while public tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have more reasonable valuations [11][13] - Current AI investments are primarily supported by free cash flow, contrasting with the debt-driven nature of the internet bubble era [15] Investment Bubble - The report highlights that global tech capital expenditure has maintained a growth rate of 12.3% since 2013, indicating that current growth is still within this trend [16] - Large tech companies have seen a continuous rise in investment returns since the onset of the AI cycle, driven by cloud customer demand and cost savings from AI tools [17] Technology Bubble - There are concerns regarding the usability and scalability of generative AI, which still faces issues like errors and hallucinations, potentially hindering large-scale application [19] - However, advancements such as Google's Gemini 3 demonstrate that AI has not yet reached its ceiling, achieving significant progress in multimodal capabilities [21] - Demand for AI is robust, with Google processing 130 trillion tokens monthly, a substantial increase from 9.7 trillion in April 2024, and less than 10% of U.S. businesses currently utilizing AI, indicating vast growth potential [23] - The cost of the cheapest large language models has decreased by 1000 times, driving consumption growth and ensuring no chip idleness [25] Potential Triggers for Bubble Burst - Complex financing structures, such as OpenAI's $1.4 trillion computing purchase commitment over eight years, may introduce systemic risks and valuation opacity [28] - Even cash-rich cloud service giants are beginning to issue more debt, with investment-grade bond issuance exceeding $35 billion in 2025, raising concerns about rising net debt to EBITDA ratios [30] - The report notes diminishing returns on scale, with training costs for AI models skyrocketing from $10 million to over $1 billion, while the probability of developing AGI within five years is declining [32] - Growing skepticism towards AI is evident, with over 20% of respondents in the UK and EU expressing significant concerns about job displacement due to AI [34] - Energy supply may become a major barrier to AI adoption and monetization, with projected electricity demand by 2030 expected to be four times that of 2020 [36]