Economic Work Guidelines - The overall tone for the second half of the year emphasizes "stability while seeking progress," aiming to effectively promote domestic and international dual circulation [4][10][47] - The meeting acknowledged previous economic achievements while also addressing ongoing risks and challenges, highlighting the need for a proactive approach to leverage development opportunities [9][10] Macro Policy - The macro policy will focus on "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating that fiscal and monetary policies still have room for maneuvering [10][11] - Fiscal policy will accelerate government bond issuance and improve fund utilization efficiency, particularly in infrastructure projects [11][12] - Monetary policy aims to maintain ample liquidity and support sectors like technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises [18][19] Demand-Side Expansion - The meeting stressed the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, with a focus on expanding consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption [20][21] - Policies will be directed towards improving living standards and expanding consumption demand, including potential measures like "child-rearing subsidies" [22] Supply-Side Reform - The meeting highlighted the need for further regulation of "involutionary" competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity in key industries [23][28] - Emphasis will be placed on deepening reforms and promoting a unified national market to optimize market competition [27][30] External Opening - The meeting called for expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing the fundamentals of foreign trade and investment, with a focus on supporting foreign trade enterprises [34][35] - Policies will include optimizing export tax rebate policies and enhancing cross-border e-commerce development [36][37] Risk Prevention - The meeting outlined strategies for preventing and mitigating risks in key areas, including high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks [39][41] - Emphasis will be placed on maintaining the stability of the capital market and preventing new hidden debts [40][44]

南华期货焦煤焦炭周报 ——情绪回落 2025/08/01 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【盘面回顾】本周焦煤现货涨跌分化，产地部分煤种因资源紧缺上调报价，口岸蒙煤跟随盘面下跌，口岸蒙 5#原煤报价880-900元/吨，安泽低硫主焦报价1450-1500元/吨，周内焦炭现货四轮提涨落地，第五轮提涨已 经开启。本周双焦盘面暴跌，焦煤月间反套走强，焦炭月差波动不大，JM9-1月差-107.5(-48)，J9-1月 差-39(+10)。 【产业表现】 焦煤：本周新增停产矿山，部分煤种资源紧缺，矿山复产速度偏慢。进口方面，本周口岸蒙煤平均通关量维 持在1000车以上，海煤进口利润收窄，但多数煤种仍具性价比，后续到港仍有压力。需求方面，盘面回调部 分期现商解套，现货抛压加重，口岸报价不断下调，焦煤流拍率环比提高，焦煤投机需求表现偏差。焦化厂 维持刚需采购，当前原料库存可用天数偏高，终端继续补库的驱动不足。 焦炭：现货4轮提涨全面落地，即期焦化利润环比修复，但多数焦化厂仍处于微亏状态，增产积极性一般。下 游钢厂维持较高铁水，焦炭现货资源较为紧张 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market's bullish sentiment has receded, but there is strong support below the 70,000 yuan mark. Downstream demand remains cautious, and there are concerns about weakening long - term demand. However, short - term inventory reduction and demand - side restocking may support prices [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the Politburo meeting and exchange announcements, the market is driven by news. With the recovery of production and uncertain inventory trends, the market may fluctuate, and the policy support effect is yet to be verified [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the market is driven by news. There is a possibility of price regression to fundamentals, and short - term price correction risks should be watched out for [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | News - driven market | 65,000 - 66,000 | 78,000 - 83,000 | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stocking or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | News - driven market | 8,500 - 8,600 | 9,900 - 10,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | | Polysilicon 09 | News - driven market | 45,000 - 46,000 | 55,000 - 56,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 68,280 | - 3.29% | 521,849 | 229,368 | - 43,385 | 5,545 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,760 | - 5.65% | 410,371 | 212,932 | - 29,745 | 50,644 | | Polysilicon | 49,130 | - 7.81% | 565,838 | 126,989 | - 37,501 | 3,200 [16] | 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 17,268 tons, a decrease of 1,362 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Downstream**: Downstream inquiry activity has increased, but actual transactions have not increased proportionally. Downstream buyers are still cautious, mainly making purchases for rigid demand [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerating, and production is expected to continue to rise. Short - term inventory has decreased due to improved transactions, but future inventory trends depend on transaction volume and production reduction implementation [6]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level, which will form selling hedging pressure on the market. The full - cost "policy red line" provides strong support [8][9]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report.

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company conducted multiple broker strategy meetings from June 9 to August 1, 2025, involving various investment firms and asset management companies, with a total of 13 meetings held [1][2][3][4]. - Participants included notable firms such as JP Morgan Asset Management, Baillie Gifford, and Antipodes, among others, indicating strong interest from institutional investors [1][2][3][4]. Group 2: Performance and Growth Strategy - The company reported steady growth in the first half of the year, driven by customer-oriented management, the implementation of the "123 strategy," and improvements in operational efficiency through AI and digitalization [4][5]. - The company aims to deepen lean management and pursue strategic mergers and acquisitions to sustain long-term growth [4]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Technology - There is potential for further improvement in operational efficiency, with ongoing initiatives in lean culture and digital transformation [5][6]. - The company has developed a four-layer collaborative system architecture for AI applications, enhancing automation in business processes and improving service efficiency [6]. Group 4: International Expansion and Acquisitions - The company is committed to an internationalization strategy, focusing on strategic acquisitions and building a global service network [7][8]. - Recent acquisitions include the full acquisition of ALS Group's branch in China and Safety SA, which will enhance the company's capabilities in geochemical analysis and food safety [9][10]. Group 5: Talent Development and Organizational Capability - The company emphasizes talent development as a core competitive advantage, investing in training and creating a diverse assessment and incentive mechanism [11][12]. - Initiatives include cross-departmental talent mobility and leadership development programs to enhance organizational capabilities [12]. Group 6: Response to National Policies - The company actively responds to national supply-side reforms by enhancing service quality and investing in emerging sectors such as transportation, healthcare, and green technologies [12]. - This strategic alignment with national policies is expected to strengthen the company's market position and drive sustainable growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with price adjustments across the supply chain and a focus on cost-effective production methods, leading to potential consolidation and improved profitability for key players like Jinyang New Energy [1] Company Summary - Jinyang New Energy's stock rose over 6%, reaching HKD 1.52, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] - The company has made notable progress in its solar PV business, successfully developing high-efficiency heterojunction (HJT) solar cell technology using monocrystalline ingot silicon wafers [1] - Jinyang has entered into a joint venture agreement for the HBC upgrade project with partners in Quanzhou, further enhancing its technological capabilities [1] Industry Summary - According to CITIC Securities, the PV industry has become a representative sector against "involution," with initial success in addressing below-cost sales within the supply chain [1] - The silicon material segment is expected to lead supply-side reforms due to its concentrated market structure, which may facilitate mergers and acquisitions and reduce output [1] - Recent discussions at the SMM PV Supply Chain Development Conference highlighted ongoing efforts to reduce the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon production, with proposed revisions to energy consumption standards aimed at phasing out outdated production capacities [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 反内卷：建立短期和长期改善的连接 证券分析师： 傅静涛 A0230516110001 韦春泽 A0230524060005 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.07.31 主要观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 一、从不同期限讨论反内卷对A股的积极影响：长期强化牛市叙事、中期提高基本面拐点可见度、短期"看长做短"行情演绎更加顺畅 ◼ 长期："反内卷"打造全国统一大市场，提升全要素生产率，A股盈利有望趋势性抬升。不同于2016-2017年周期行业的供给侧改革，严厉的"去产量"在民营企业主 导的中游制造行业不宜也不易执行。建设全国统一大市场，推动要素价格回归合理位置是本轮"反内卷"的重要抓手：1）资本要素：打破地方政府保护，抑制过度补 贴冲动；限制供应链占款，避免过度宽松的金融条件；提高贷款门槛，让资金利率与真实风险匹配。2）劳动力要素：推动企业依法缴纳五险一金，限制过度加班；3） 技术要素：通过技术门槛要求，引导落后产能有序退出；4）土地要素：地方政府不能为了招商引资，以远低于实际价值的价格出让土地。最终，企业成本有序上升， 低效产能在市场作用下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market has highlighted the allocation value of the 10-year government bond ETF (511260), as the market sentiment for bonds has cooled due to rising risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets. The expectation of supply-side reforms remains speculative, while demand-side measures are yet to be introduced, indicating limited potential for reversing economic weakness in the near term. [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, with an average duration of 7.6 years. Since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, a five-year return of 19.26%, and a cumulative return of 34.63% since inception. [1] - The ETF has maintained positive annual returns for seven consecutive years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool that can weather market cycles. [1] Group 2: Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF offers T+0 trading convenience, allowing investors to buy and sell on the same day, which is beneficial in a high-volatility market environment. [2] - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors. [3] - The ETF provides transparency in holdings, with daily publication of the PCF list. [4] - Investors can use the ETF for pledge repurchase, allowing them to access funds for other investments while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment of lithium carbonate has significantly receded, but it rebounded after approaching the 70,000 RMB mark, indicating that downstream buyers have a stronger willingness to stock up at low prices. However, there are concerns about weakening demand in the medium to long term [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the market is driven by news, with increased volatility. Before the implementation of supply - side reform measures, the market may continue to speculate on policy expectations [6]. - In the case of polysilicon, short - term speculative sentiment is high, but the weakening terminal demand and high enterprise inventories will create selling pressure. The full - cost line provides strong support, and the market may still speculate on policy expectations before supply - side reform measures are introduced [7][8]. Summary by Directory Part One: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Lithium Carbonate 09**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The support level is 65,000 - 66,000 RMB, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 83,000 RMB. Sellers are advised to seize hedging opportunities, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price inventory replenishment [13]. - **Industrial Silicon 09**: It will have two - way fluctuations. The support level is 8,500 - 8,600 RMB, and the pressure level is 9,900 - 10,000 RMB. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Polysilicon 09**: It will have two - way fluctuations. The support level is 45,000 - 46,000 RMB, and the pressure level is 55,000 - 56,000 RMB. It is recommended to reduce long positions [13]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium Carbonate | 70,600 RMB | - 0.34% | 792,909 | 272,753 | - 27,867 | 13,131 | | Industrial Silicon | 9,285 RMB | - 0.70% | 605,161 | 242,677 | - 34,057 | 49,846 | | Polysilicon | 54,705 RMB | 8.87% | 565,243 | 164,490 | 23,852 | 3,070 | [13] Part Two: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a decrease of 485 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous week, reaching a new high. The weekly apparent demand was 18,080 tons, a phased high. The inventory - to - use days were relatively stable at 55.4 days [4]. - **Downstream**: As the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles exceeds 50%, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle demand is gradually declining. The production and sales growth rate in August is expected to decline further, and the production and sales volume in the fourth quarter may be flat or even lower than the same period last year [4]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers has accelerated due to the recovery of profits. The production is expected to continue to increase. The inventory has decreased in the short term due to improved sales, but the follow - up sales and production cuts need to be monitored [6]. - **Downstream**: No specific content provided. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the fundamental drivers are temporarily ineffective. High inventories and weak terminal demand will create selling pressure, while the full - cost line provides support [7][8]. - **Downstream**: No specific content provided.

浦银国际发布研报称，当前，本轮"反内卷"行情仍处在政策预期上升驱动的阶段，行情的持续性仍需观 察政策落地、产能出清、产能利用率提升、供需结构动态平衡和企业盈利改善等的情况。本轮"反内 卷"与供给侧改革仍存在较多不同之处，供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对 的大部分为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。预计本轮"反内卷"政策有望带动相关行业的供需 关系、企业盈利以及市场表现等多方面改善，那些处于供给出清前期的行业或具有更大的改善空间。 一是针对的行业范围不同。本轮"反内卷"涉及的行业更广泛，除了传统产业之外，还涵盖光伏、锂电、 新能源汽车、互联网电商等多个新兴产业，以中下游行业为主。 二是涉及行业中民企占比较大。供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对的大部分 为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。 三是本次采取的政策手段将更多元。由于"反内卷"相关行业独特性更强，明确量化目标、大范围采取行 政手段推动产能出清未必适用，采取的政策手段会因行业而异，落实难度不小。 四是两者的推进路径和侧重点不同。与供给侧改革核心在于化解过剩产能不同，本轮"反内卷"需要供需 两端协同发力， ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month[3] - The decline in July's PMI is attributed to both temporary and structural factors, including extreme weather and natural disasters[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI - Extreme weather conditions, such as high temperatures and natural disasters, have negatively impacted PMI readings, contributing to a seasonal decline in manufacturing[4] - The "anti-involution" trend may cause a temporary slowdown in production, but it is expected to improve price expectations significantly[5] - The new export orders index fell to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in export demand, reflecting the effects of previous strong export activities[6] Group 3: Price Indicators - The PMI raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while the PMI factory price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[5] - The marginal improvement in price expectations does not indicate a substantial recovery in prices, as the transition from negative to positive PPI growth is still pending[5] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI and service PMI recorded values of 50.6% and 50.0%, with respective declines of 2.2 and 0.1 percentage points[6] - The construction sector is expected to face less downward pressure due to ongoing policy support for infrastructure projects[8]