Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in international precious metal futures, particularly gold and silver, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions, rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical risks that boost safe-haven demand [1][3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 3.24% to $4,130 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 7.47% to $50.775 per ounce, indicating a strong market reaction to current economic uncertainties [1] - The Financial Times discusses that the surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,000, reflects disappointment in the US dollar and concerns over global order uncertainty, positioning gold as a measure of confidence in future stability since the decoupling from the dollar in 1971 [1] Group 2 - The article from Japan's 47 News attributes the rise in gold prices to increased buying driven by Western investors through ETFs and derivatives, contrasting with the previously active Chinese retail investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] - Concerns regarding the US economy are identified as a primary motivation for investment in gold, with different age demographics having varying strategies; retirees may view gold as a hedge against downturns, while younger investors might pursue more aggressive investment strategies [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The continuous push of safe - haven demand, central bank gold - buying trends, and monetary policy easing expectations have strengthened the medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals prices [3]. - The copper price is caught between the strong expectation of supply shortage and the weak expectation of tariff policy, leading to short - term high - level fluctuations in futures prices [16]. - Macroeconomic policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai Aluminum. The price has been affected by factors such as employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [35]. - The fundamentals of zinc have not improved. Although the zinc price has risen, the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is obvious [56]. - The nickel price is mainly influenced by the situation of the Indonesian nickel ore market. The downstream of the new energy sector has a good demand, and the stainless steel market has some positive factors, but is also affected by tariff uncertainties [69]. - Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying trends are driving up precious metals prices. The gold ETF holdings have rebounded [3]. - **Price Charts**: Various price charts, including SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices, and gold - related spreads, are provided [4][10][12] Copper - **Price Outlook**: The copper price is in a high - level fluctuation due to the tug - of - war between supply and policy expectations. Further upward breakthrough may require the support of rate - cut expectations and domestic policies [16]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current copper futures and spot prices, import and export profits, and inventory data are presented [17][22][33] Aluminum - **Price Influencing Factors**: Macroeconomic policies, employment data, tariff announcements, and supply disruptions are affecting the aluminum price. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [35]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are provided [36][44][50] Zinc - **Price Outlook**: The zinc price has risen, but the domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. The import - export situation is also a factor [56]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [57][63][66] Nickel - **Price Influencing Factors**: The Indonesian nickel ore market, new energy demand, and stainless steel market trends are influencing the nickel price. Tariff uncertainties also have an impact [69]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current nickel and stainless steel futures prices, inventory data, and downstream profit data are provided [70][76][80] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to increased macro - uncertainty, the tin price is expected to correct in the short term [85]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current tin futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are presented [85][88][93] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Considering supply and demand factors, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a weakening trend with fluctuations [98]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are provided [99][103][107] Silicon - **Price Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to rise slightly with the arrival of the dry season, but the increase is limited by inventory. The trading of polysilicon is focused on the establishment of the storage platform and the cancellation of warehouse receipts, with high volatility and risk [109]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Current industrial silicon and polysilicon spot prices, production data, and inventory data are presented [110][116][123]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for asphalt in October is "oscillating weakly" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices declined due to multiple factors, causing asphalt prices to follow suit. In October, asphalt supply increased, but demand decreased in the north due to the rainy season, resulting in a lackluster peak season. The overall trend of asphalt will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Neutral)**: Two information companies estimated October's local refinery asphalt production at 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9% respectively. Although some refineries plan to maintain full - load production or resume production, others' maintenance or intermittent production limits the increase [3]. - **Demand (Negative)**: Affected by factors such as logistics restrictions during the National Day holiday and early - October rainfall, domestic asphalt demand is likely to decline. However, there are still construction rush expectations in some areas [3]. - **Inventory (Neutral)**: Domestic asphalt inventory shows a trend of "slightly increasing factory inventory and slightly decreasing social inventory". Low - inventory regions have stronger price support, while high - inventory regions are weaker [3]. - **Cost (Neutral)**: This week, crude oil prices fluctuated, first rebounding and then falling. The initial rebound was due to OPEC +'s production increase plan being lower than expected and geopolitical risks, while the subsequent decline was due to the easing of the Middle East situation, concerns about demand, and weak global economic recovery [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly. The overall trend will continue to follow crude oil [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillating weakly; Arbitrage: none [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (East China, South China, North China, Shandong) from 2021 to 2025 [5][6][9]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis data of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, Shandong) from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][36]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: It presents the price, premium, and port inventory data of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [44][45][46]. 3.6 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volume of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, Northeast) from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing strong bullish momentum but face resistance levels around 4060/4085, with support at 4021/4000. A buy recommendation is suggested near 4020 with a target profit of 70-100 points and a stop loss at 4010 [2][3] - The driving factors for gold's movement include escalating geopolitical risks, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and political instability in multiple countries, which are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 2 - For EUR/USD, the market is currently in a consolidation phase after reaching a high of 1.163, with a focus on the easing of political tensions in France and Germany, which counterbalance the delayed impact of U.S. employment data [5] - Key support levels are identified at 1.150/1.154 and resistance at 1.169/1.174, with a trading strategy suggesting a short position near 1.166 [7] Group 3 - GBP/USD is supported by hawkish comments from the Bank of England, but U.S. risk aversion is limiting its gains, resulting in a doji candlestick formation [9] - Key support levels are at 1.323/1.328 and resistance at 1.343/1.348, with a recommendation to enter a long position near 1.330 [11] Group 4 - GBP/JPY experienced a downward breakout after initial fluctuations, reaching a significant Fibonacci retracement level, with a bearish candlestick formation [13] - Resistance levels are noted at 203.7/204.4 and support at 201.3/202, with a recommendation to enter short positions between 203-203.5 [15]

Group 1 - Silver prices have historically surpassed $50 per ounce, reaching $51 per ounce, marking a nearly 14-year high with a daily increase of over 4% [1] - Year-to-date, silver has shown a remarkable increase of over 70%, outperforming gold, which has risen by 50% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a dual driving force of "financial attributes + industrial demand" [1] Group 2 - The rising gold prices have positively influenced the entire precious metals sector, while the demand for silver in high-tech industries such as renewable energy, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles has seen explosive growth [1] - Silver serves as both a "safe-haven asset" and an "industrial metal," which contributes to its strong performance [1] - Factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risks have collectively propelled silver prices [1] Group 3 - Citigroup has raised its silver price target to $55, indicating a bullish outlook [1] - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term upward trend for silver remains solid, with potential to reach new highs by the end of the year [1] - Investment strategies recommend waiting for price corrections to enter positions at key support levels while managing risks effectively [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price reached a historic high during the domestic "Double Festival," with London spot gold hitting over $4000 per ounce on October 8 and New York futures also surpassing $4000 [1] - The China Construction Bank Shanghai Gold ETF (518860) saw a net inflow of 64.46 million yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Factors driving the gold price increase include expectations of continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to U.S. government shutdown and weak employment data, alongside rising stagflation risks [1][2] Group 2 - As of the end of September, China's gold reserves stood at 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase of 40,000 ounces and the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - Goldman Sachs projects that central banks will average net purchases of 80 tons and 70 tons of gold in 2025 and 2026, respectively, contributing significantly to price increases [1] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has further fueled demand for gold, reinforcing the ongoing bullish trend in the market [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is a relatively moderate increase. The petrochemical sector continues to adjust, with ongoing attention to the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading [2][5] - The oil and petrochemical index underperformed this week, declining by 0.38% compared to last week. In contrast, the engineering services sector within the oil and petrochemical industry performed the best, with an increase of 0.88% [5] - Oil prices have decreased, with an increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories [6][10] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament has dropped while the price spread has increased. The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, and the operating rate of weaving machines has increased [14][19] - For olefins, the spot prices of sample polyolefins remain stable, and inventory levels are steady [21][22] Summary by Sections Oil Market - Oil prices have fallen, with Brent crude futures closing at $65.5 per barrel, a decrease of 7.2% compared to September 26 [7] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6,440 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 496 thousand barrels [13] Polyester - The prices for polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) are 6,550, 7,750, and 6,700 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 61 yuan per ton compared to September 26 [16] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 25.7, 29.5, and 18.8 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively, with an increase in the operating rate of weaving machines [19] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,800 and 8,050 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.64% for PE and no change for PP compared to September 26 [24] - The total inventory of polyolefins is 590,000 tons, which is a decrease from the previous period [24]

Core Insights - The report highlights the expected impact of the Gaza ceasefire on market prices, predicting a significant downward trend, although the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea may take 2-3 months [3][26] - The report notes potential geopolitical risks between the US and Iran that could affect market dynamics [26] - There are multiple upward drivers anticipated from October to December, suggesting a complex market outlook [26] Market Data Summary - Recent futures prices show a decline, with EC2510 at 1110.6 (-0.39%), EC2512 at 1731.9 (-1.39%), and EC2602 at 1642.8 (-1.45%) [25] - The SCF index for the European line has decreased by 6.60% from the previous period, indicating a significant drop in shipping rates [25] - The CCFI and NCFI indices also reflect downward trends, with decreases of 4.69% and 8.85% respectively [25] Pricing Trends - The average price for the European line in weeks 40-41 was reported at 1450 USD, with specific rates for different shipping companies ranging from 1300 to 1600 USD [26] - A price increase announcement for week 42 suggests a target range of 1800-2000 USD, aimed more at stabilizing prices rather than actual increases [26] - The report indicates that the lowest price for YML was recorded at 1300 USD, marking a significant low for the year [26] Shipping Index Trends - The SCFI index shows a seasonal trend with fluctuations in shipping rates over the past years, indicating a complex pricing environment [38] - The TCI index for various routes also reflects seasonal variations, suggesting that shipping costs are influenced by both demand and geopolitical factors [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to "blindly cut rates" have increased due to the suspension of key economic data releases. Concurrently, Kishi's victory has raised expectations for "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, driving gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs. Looking ahead, the global trend towards right-wing politics and loose fiscal and monetary policies suggests greater uncertainty from geopolitical friction and unsustainable global government debt, increasing the probability of a mild overheating of the economy. In terms of market strategy, short-term risk appetite for U.S. stocks is expected to weaken due to the ongoing government shutdown, while in the medium term, the combination of right-wing politics, fiscal and monetary easing, geopolitical risks, economic overheating, and weakening fiat currency credit is expected to lead to asset performance in the order of gold > copper > stocks [1]. Major Asset Performance - During the National Day holiday period (September 29 to October 6), global major assets reflected a typical "loose fiscal + loose monetary" trading pattern, with Bitcoin and gold leading the gains. The U.S. stock market saw a continuous rise, and global stock markets experienced broad gains. Specifically, on October 1, the U.S. federal government shut down due to the failure to pass a temporary spending bill, with the shutdown expected to last longer than market expectations, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold and Bitcoin prices. Gold and Bitcoin reached new highs, surpassing $3960 per ounce and $150,000 respectively, while the Nikkei 225 index rose by 6.4% during the holiday, also reaching a historical high [2][3]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of key economic data releases, including the September non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims. The ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000. The ISM manufacturing and services indices displayed mixed results, with the manufacturing PMI improving to 49.1, while the services PMI fell to 50. The consumer confidence index unexpectedly dropped to 94.2, below the expected 96. The lack of non-farm payroll data has left the market in a "no news" state, with the private sector data from Revelio Labs indicating a modest increase of 61,000 jobs in September [3][4]. U.S. Political Landscape - The U.S. federal government officially entered a shutdown on October 1 due to a failure to pass a temporary spending bill. The shutdown is primarily due to disagreements between the two parties over healthcare spending. The negative impact of the shutdown on the economy is expected to be limited, with previous shutdowns showing that GDP losses are often recovered once the government resumes operations. The shutdown is projected to last approximately 18 days, with significant delays expected for the release of key economic data such as the non-farm payrolls and CPI [4]. Japanese Political Landscape - Kishi Nobuo won the election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party on October 4, expected to become Japan's first female prime minister. Kishi's economic policies advocate for loose fiscal and monetary policies, which are seen as a continuation of Abenomics. The market reacted positively, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 4%. However, concerns about the sustainability of future fiscal expansions have led to increases in long-term Japanese government bond yields. Market expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes have decreased, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping to 20.8% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices, which fell by 1%, reflects a market adjustment to Federal Reserve policy expectations and a temporary increase in investor risk appetite [1][2]. Market Review - On September 30, during European trading hours, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 1%. The past week saw increased volatility in gold prices, indicating fluctuating market sentiment [2][10]. Driving Factors Analysis - **Strengthening Dollar and Interest Rate Expectations**: Recent robust U.S. economic data has led to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a stronger dollar and higher 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which have pressured gold prices [4]. - **Rising Risk Appetite**: The performance of risk assets, such as U.S. stocks and certain emerging market indices, has improved, leading to a recovery in investor sentiment and reduced demand for gold [5]. - **Technical Factors**: Gold faced resistance near key levels, with intensified trading activity leading to a 1% drop, potentially exacerbated by technical selling and stop-loss orders [6]. - **Temporary Easing of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Variables**: A decrease in market focus on certain geopolitical risks has weakened the buying momentum for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Market Interpretation and Investor Sentiment - Market participants exhibit divided interpretations, with some institutions noting limited changes in gold ETF holdings, suggesting that long-term capital has not significantly exited the market, and that short-term fluctuations may be more emotional adjustments [8]. Future Outlook and Key Focus Areas - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on: 1. The Federal Reserve's policy direction [9] 2. Potential declines in U.S. inflation and economic data over the coming months, which could lead to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent 1% decline in spot gold prices indicates significant short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar and rising interest rate expectations. However, gold retains its strategic value as a long-term safe-haven and store of value, warranting a broader examination of global macro trends and risk dynamics rather than solely focusing on short-term price movements [12].