| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡 | 地缘风险、旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价盘整。近期，乌克兰先后袭击 | | 原油 | | 俄罗斯空军基地和克里米亚大桥，俄乌冲突升温；OPEC+7 月继续增产 41.1 | | | | 万桶/日符合市场预期，夏季原油消费旺季即将到来，近月下方存支撑。策 | | | | 略：下有支撑，上方有限，卖看涨期权。关注区间：SC【455-475】 | | | | 下游利润改善，仓单压力下降，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 和消费旺季带动，走势震荡偏强；近期仓单连续下降，盘面压力下降；供 | | LPG | 震荡偏强 | | | | | 需双增，炼厂检修逐渐结束，供给量上升，下游 PDH 装置利润好转，开 | | | | 工有上升预期。策略：轻仓试多。关注区间：PG【4065-4130】 | | | | 焦煤带动煤化工品种集体反弹，PE 煤制占比 21%，但基差显著走弱，华 | | | | 北基差为-19（环比-86），盘面减仓反弹。国内停车比例维持在 15%以上 | | L | 高空 | 的偏高水平， ...

2025.06.04 周三 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 题目指的下，是暴跌下趋势线的下。 现在的大黄走的，上下皆乱，缠成一团了快，不等非农快刀斩乱麻，现在跟它在这儿纠结个什么劲。维持相对高位的扫盘被，上看前高，下看前 低，在昨天的下调中，关键高低点给你定了个遍。 特别是下方的3333，槽点很多啊朋友。周二的文章还在提到，黄金在六月第一天的上涨并没有完成回踩，所以在上涨途中目标缩量是其一，其二是 或有往3330±3的区间测试的概率。 说起来还得谢谢这个注水数据？震荡十个小时之后，斐波那契的46一带还没来得及发力，直线被739的职位空缺震惊下压。虽然但是，最终实体部 分仍然是守着3346，说明这个影线的下探，只是顺便而已。这之后，在日线中先一根大阳，后一根调整的小阴，今天的关键，自然就放在了前高 3391的得失上。 距离非农日（6月6日）还有一个多交易日，除了老生常谈的关税、债务、地缘等暂时正在谈判但结果未知的风险之外，还有"掺水"的数据忍不住开 始冒头。 老美劳工部发布的《职位空缺及劳动力流动调查》(JOLTS)显示，4月职位空缺增加19.1万个，达到739.1万个。表面看起来贼繁荣，可提供的劳动 ...

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Long on dips [1] - Treasury bonds: Range-bound [1] - Gold and silver: Bullish with dips for buying or selling out-of-the-money put options [1] - Non-ferrous metals (copper): Range-bound [4] - Non-ferrous metals (aluminum and alumina): Range-bound for alumina, bearish for aluminum [4] - Non-ferrous metals (nickel): Range-bound, option strategies preferred [4] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [4] - Silicon energy: Bearish [6] - Steel and ore: Bearish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore [6] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [8] - Soda ash and glass: Bearish [8] - Crude oil: Bearish with an eye on geopolitical resistance [8] - Methanol: Bearish [10] - Polyolefins: Bearish [10] - Cotton: Range-bound [10] - Rubber: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - The A-share market is building a long-term investment environment, with limited downside risk and increasing allocation value, but short-term fundamentals and policies lack significant positives [1] - The bond market remains cautious due to uncertain domestic economic expectations and a lack of new positives [1] - Gold prices are bullish in the long term, with short-term fluctuations driven by risk aversion [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices are affected by US tariffs and policy uncertainties, with supply constraints and cautious demand [4] - The lithium carbonate market has a clear supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to remain low [4] - The silicon energy market has weak demand and potential inventory accumulation, with prices expected to be low [6] - The steel and ore market has poor demand expectations and slow supply reduction, with prices under pressure [6] - The coking coal and coke market has a supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to decline [8] - The soda ash and glass market has increasing supply and weak demand, with prices remaining bearish [8] - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, with short-term focus on resistance [8] - Methanol prices are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, despite potential port restrictions [10] - Polyolefin prices are likely to decline due to new capacity and weakening demand [10] - Cotton prices are range-bound, with attention on weather and macro changes [10] - Rubber prices are bearish due to increasing supply and weak demand [10] 3. Summary by Category Index Futures - Monday's A-share market opened low and closed high, with low trading volume and sector rotation [1] - Tariff policy uncertainties suppress market sentiment, but policy support and long-term investment environment construction limit downside risk [1] - Strategy: Long on dips [1] Treasury Bonds - Yesterday's bond futures were range-bound, with most contracts slightly down and some slightly up [1] - May's Caixin PMI was average, and the market remains cautious due to uncertain domestic economic expectations and a lack of new positives [1] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices are bullish in the long term, with short-term fluctuations driven by risk aversion [1] - Silver follows gold, with a high gold-silver ratio [1] - Strategy: Buy on dips or sell out-of-the-money put options [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are affected by US tariffs and policy uncertainties, with supply constraints and cautious demand [4] - Aluminum and alumina prices are affected by US tariffs and supply uncertainties, with prices expected to be low [4] - Nickel prices are range-bound, with weak fundamentals and policy uncertainties [4] - Strategy: Range-bound trading or option strategies [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a clear supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to remain low [4] - Strategy: Bearish trading [4] Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has weak demand and potential inventory accumulation, with prices expected to be low [6] - Strategy: Bearish trading [6] Steel and Ore - Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore prices are under pressure due to poor demand expectations and slow supply reduction [6] - Strategy: Bearish trading or option strategies [6] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke market has a supply surplus and weak demand, with prices likely to decline [8] - Strategy: Bearish trading [8] Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash and glass market has increasing supply and weak demand, with prices remaining bearish [8] - Strategy: Bearish trading or arbitrage strategies [8] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, with short-term focus on resistance [8] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [8] Methanol - Methanol prices are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, despite potential port restrictions [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10] Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are likely to decline due to new capacity and weakening demand [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10] Cotton - Cotton prices are range-bound, with attention on weather and macro changes [10] - Strategy: Range-bound trading [10] Rubber - Rubber prices are bearish due to increasing supply and weak demand [10] - Strategy: Bearish trading [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]

黄金方面： 原油方面： 经合组织（OECD）发布的报告显示，特朗普的关税政策正在对美国经济造成巨大的压力，经济放缓的程度可能超过此前的预 期。有消息显示特朗普可能在本周与东方大国领导人举行会谈，贸易局势有望缓解。 另一方面，俄乌冲突局势升级，据报道，乌克兰利用无人机袭击了俄罗斯的多处军事基地，并炸毁了多架重要战机，有评论说 远超当年"珍珠岛袭击事件"。标志着俄乌冲突升级，短期内停火的可能性大幅降低。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，近几日俄乌局势急转直下，美国与伊朗的谈判陷入泥潭，地缘风险升温，油价 走强的迹象越发明显。 技术面：原油近期维持60-64美元区间震荡，多空方向不明，60美元的关键位置多次均未跌破，本周有望进一步走高。小时图来 看，周一（6月2日）上涨之后维持高位震荡，日内即有望冲高，上方可以看向64.80美元一线。 日经225方面： 最新公布的美国4月职位空缺数据显示，录得739.1万人，预期为710万人，前值为720万人，利空黄金，亮眼的职位空缺显示美国 就业强劲，不过裁员人数大增19.6万人，创9个月以来的最大增幅；同时公布的美国4月工厂订单月率显示-3.7%，预期为-3.1%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No such content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Overseas Situation**: The US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. The market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise slightly, driven by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and football concepts. China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite. The market is currently focused on US trade policies and trade negotiation progress, which may increase market volatility. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Precious metals fluctuated and declined on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar. COMEX gold futures for August delivery fell 0.6% to $3377 per ounce. US labor data showed signs of cooling. The market is awaiting the employment report on Friday, with an expected increase of 130,000 non-farm payrolls in May and a possible rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Geopolitical risks and policy - related games may increase the volatility of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and it is advisable to look for long - term investment opportunities after periodic corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. The US raising steel tariffs has intensified market pessimism. The market is entering the off - season, and iron ore production has declined for three consecutive weeks, reflecting weak demand. However, steel production is still increasing due to good profits. The steel market will remain weak in the short term, and it is advisable to consider inter - period positive spreads [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices declined on Tuesday. Although iron ore production has declined, steel mills are still profitable, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the decline path of iron ore production. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and this trend is expected to continue in the second - quarter peak season. FMG has postponed the production of the Iron Bridge project. Iron ore port inventories are decreasing. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Silicon manganese and silicon iron spot prices declined on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is fair as the production of major steel products has increased slightly. The price of silicon manganese in the north and south markets is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is cautious. The production of silicon manganese has increased slightly, mainly in Inner Mongolia and Guilin. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton for 72 - grade and 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. The raw material price of blue charcoal is weak, and downstream procurement is sluggish. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Canadian wildfires have disrupted oil supply, offsetting the impact of OPEC+ production increases. The fire in Alberta, Canada, has shut down 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production, more than three - quarters of OPEC+'s recent production increase. US job vacancies also support oil prices. Geopolitical risks are rising due to the US - Iran nuclear agreement issue. Oil prices will be more volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to monitor the progress of the Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices have rebounded after a decline. Demand has recovered to a limited extent. The basis in major consumption areas has declined, and the futures structure has weakened. After the profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. As the peak demand season approaches, it is advisable to monitor inventory depletion. Asphalt prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, following oil prices [7]. - **PX**: The external price of PX remains high, and the PXN spread is around 270. Short - term maintenance is relatively high, and with the support of oil prices, PX will maintain a strong and volatile trend. However, after the reduction of polyester downstream production, PTA may reduce long - term contracts, which may affect PX demand in the future. There is a slight risk of a decline in PX prices later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remains at a high level of +210, but the 9 - 1 spread has dropped by 50 points. After the restart of some devices, more devices will end maintenance in June, and supply will increase. Downstream production cuts will continue, and PTA is likely to accumulate inventory in June. It is advisable to enter the market on the right - hand side when the spread declines [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal - based supply of ethylene glycol will gradually recover, and inventory will decrease in the short term, but it needs to reach 500,000 tons. Downstream production cuts have a negative impact, and low imports limit supply growth. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for a rebound [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. Terminal orders have recovered less than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and orders from the US may slow down. Although short - fiber inventory has decreased, it is necessary to monitor the sustainability of spinning mill operations. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Methanol**: The Jiangsu Maritime Bureau has restricted ships over 25 years old from berthing in the Yangtze River, which has strengthened the basis in June. On June 3, 2025, the daily loss of Chinese methanol plants due to maintenance or production cuts was 17,050 tons. Some plants have resumed production, and some have started new maintenance. Import arrivals have increased, and port and inland inventories are rising slightly. Although low inventory supports prices in the short term, with increasing supply, inventory is expected to rise faster, and prices may decline in the long term. It is advisable to monitor import arrivals and wait for the situation to become clear [10]. - **PP**: The polypropylene market is consolidating within a range. The output of PP is increasing, and new device production is being realized. Supply pressure will increase from June to July, while demand is in the off - season transition. With weak oil prices, the price center is likely to move down. It is advisable to monitor device maintenance and oil price fluctuations [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusting. The price has declined in different regions. The industrial inventory is okay, but demand is in the off - season. Supply pressure has been relieved due to previous device maintenance, but devices are expected to restart, and new devices will be put into production in June. With weak oil prices, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices rose above $9600 overnight. The market expects the US to impose a 50% tariff on copper after raising tariffs on steel and aluminum. The copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate TC has continued to decline, but the decline has slowed. Copper concentrate port inventories are high, and TC may stabilize soon. Copper production is at a high level, and there is no incentive to cut production. Demand is approaching the off - season, and there is a risk of a marginal decline in demand. If production remains high and demand weakens, inventory will increase. It will fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fluctuated overnight. The US raising aluminum tariffs will increase non - US supply. Aluminum production is at a high level, and Russian aluminum imports have increased significantly. Aluminum demand has exceeded expectations from March to May, but this growth rate is unsustainable. Demand is expected to decline marginally, and the export rush will slow down the decline. Aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, and it may fall to around 500,000 tons at the end of May. There is no major negative factor in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the domestic tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped by nearly 2%. There are rumors of the resumption of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, but these rumors have not been confirmed and may change. On the demand side, the integrated circuit industry is growing rapidly, PVC production is high, but terminal electronics are weak, and the market is entering the off - season. After the price decline, downstream enterprises have replenished inventory, and inventory has decreased by 1261 tons. Tin prices have stabilized in the short term, but high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and a marginal decline in demand will put pressure on prices [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise in US crude oil prices by nearly 2% has boosted CBOT soybean and corn futures. The possible meeting between US and Chinese leaders this week has restored market risk appetite. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is stable with high temperatures, and there is no continuous weather premium. CBOT soybeans are expected to trade within a range in the short term [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is expected to recover, and the weak basis will be realized. There is no strong driving force for the rise of US soybeans, so soybean meal lacks a stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the low inventory of Canadian rapeseed and potential drought risks in the new season have tightened domestic rapeseed imports, and the supply outlook is uncertain. Rapeseed meal is in the peak demand season, and port inventory may decrease. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. If the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean harvest, soybean meal premiums may decline. Rapeseed meal has relatively strong support, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may narrow [15]. - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound in the crude oil market has driven up the prices of US soybean oil and oilseeds. The domestic market has risen with the expected increase in costs. BMD palm oil futures rose, supported by improved export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in May. After India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oil, palm oil futures rose in the Chinese market, supported by improved demand prospects [16]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, the pressure on pig farms to sell pigs is low at the beginning of the month, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in weak supply and demand. As large - scale pig farms increase sales and the market reduces pig weights, pig prices may continue to decline. Pig prices are stable in the short term, and there is a high basis and large discount for near - term contracts. With the position limit for the 07 contract, there may be a price increase for near - term contracts [17][18]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, the concentrated listing of new wheat may replace some corn feed consumption. High inventory and warehouse receipts may put pressure on corn prices in the short term. However, after the wheat harvest, corn demand will recover, imports will decrease, and port inventory will deplete faster. As long as the expectation of a future price increase remains, corn prices will be supported in the short term and may trade within a range [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish on dips [1] - PTA: Bullish on dips [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Showing signs of stopping decline [1] - Caustic soda: Bearish [1] - Methanol: Bearish on rallies [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rebounding strongly. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and the upcoming summer peak season for crude oil consumption provides support [1][4][5]. - LPG: Supply and demand are both increasing, and LPG is in a sideways adjustment. The cost - end oil price is driven by geopolitical factors and the consumption peak season, and the pressure on the futures market has decreased [1][7][8]. - L: After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have increased, and there is no upward driving force in the short - term. Although the decline space is limited, there is still a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][10]. - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][13]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][16]. - PX: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals continue to improve in May. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost [1][17][18]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but the demand is relatively good for now. It is short - term bullish but there is a weakening expectation in the future, so pay attention to shorting opportunities [1][20][21]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure has been relieved, and the demand is at a high level but expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and it is short - term bullish [1][22]. - Glass: The medium - term demand is shrinking, and the spot price is falling. The cost center is moving down, and the bottom - fishing is not safe [1][24][25]. - Soda ash: The supply pressure is increasing, and the rigid demand support is insufficient. The inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1][26][27]. - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The futures market is weakening [1][29]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. - Urea: The supply pressure remains, but there is support from the peak fertilizer - using season in July and the Indian tender. It shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and the inventory is relatively favorable. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.42%, Brent up 1.55%, and SC up 2.74% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks have risen due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply from Russia and Brazil is stable, and global demand is expected to increase slightly. US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to over - supply. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors and may fall after the risk is released. SC focuses on [465 - 485] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 3, the PG main contract closed at 4074 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price strengthened during the Dragon Boat Festival. Supply and demand are both increasing, with refinery production rising and PDH device demand expected to increase. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to over - supply of upstream crude oil. Technically, it is sideways. The strategy is to sell call options. PG focuses on [4065 - 4130] [9]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and import margins were relatively stable [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but there is still pressure from new device production in the medium - term. Demand is weak in June. Petrochemical inventories have increased after the holiday [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. Be cautious about the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts rose slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and production margins changed slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Many maintenance devices have restarted, increasing supply. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and new capacity will intensify the supply - demand contradiction [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were stable or slightly decreased. Cost and profit indicators changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance scale has narrowed, increasing supply. Demand is in the off - season due to the approaching rainy season. The cost has decreased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Be aware of macro - systematic risks [16]. PX - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and processing spreads changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit has improved, and domestic and overseas device loads have increased, increasing supply. PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, improving demand. Inventory decreased in April but is still high [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6510, 6680] [19]. PTA - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, increasing supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is short - term bullish, but pay attention to shorting opportunities due to the expected weakening of fundamentals [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4270, 4350] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market was under pressure. The basis increased, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - risk preference is low, and the medium - term demand for glass is shrinking. In the short - term, it is the off - season, and enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory. Supply is not expected to decrease due to profit [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [950, 980], and it is expected to approach the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices decreased, and the futures market was weak. The basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the forecast increased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices restart and new capacity comes on - stream. Demand is weak due to the decline of the glass market and the end of the photovoltaic rush. Inventory is high [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rebounded at a low level. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has increased as many maintenance devices restarted. The profit of alumina has improved, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has decreased. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase as the overseas arrival volume is expected to be realized. Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to shorting opportunities [1]. Urea - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains as maintenance devices restart. Demand is in the domestic off - season but has support from the Indian tender and the peak fertilizer - using season in July. Cost is weak but has a bottom support [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and shorting on rallies. Urea shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and inventory is relatively favorable. Demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the trend of oil prices. BU focuses on [3500 - 3560] [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Bullish [1][6][7] - L: Sideways [1][9][10] - PP: Sideways [1][12][13] - PVC: Sideways [1][15][16] - PX: Bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Bullish [1][21][22] - MEG: Bullish [1][24][25] - Glass: Bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Pullback [2][32][33] - Methanol: Rebound and Short [2] - Urea: Cautiously Long at Low Levels [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks rise, OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and the summer consumption peak is approaching, so the price is bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Oil price rebounds and warehouse receipt pressure decreases, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][6][7] - L: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slows down. Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver in the off - season, so it shows a sideways trend [1][9][10] - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term [1][12][13] - PVC: Supply increases, demand is weak in both domestic and foreign markets, and there are multiple negative factors, so the price still has a risk of further decline [1][15][16] - PX: Profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. It follows cost fluctuations and is bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Although there is a plan for new capacity in June, downstream demand is relatively good and inventory is decreasing. It is bullish in the short term, but there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [1][21][22] - MEG: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing, so it is bullish in the short term [1][24][25] - Glass: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and demand in the medium term shrinks. In the short - term off - season, the spot market is weak, and the price is bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Supply pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. The cost center moves down, so the price is bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Supply increases slightly, and the price corrects within a range [2][32][33] - Methanol: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities [2] - Urea: Supply pressure remains, but there are some positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend [2] - Asphalt: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 2.85% and Brent up 2.95%. SC had no quote during the Dragon Boat Festival [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase in July meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks rise due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. Global oil demand is expected to increase slightly, and US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as trade wars and new energy, supply is in excess, and the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors, and SC is expected to be in the range of [465 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the PG main contract closed at 4036 yuan/ton, down 1.68% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil increased during the holidays, and the fundamentals of LPG improved. Downstream PDH operating rate increased, and port inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG is over - valued, so it is bearish. After the holiday, it may gap up. Temporarily wait and see, and go short at high levels after risk release. PG is expected to be in the range of [4080 - 4150] [8]. L - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slowed down, and the North China basis was 90 (up 55 month - on - month) [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 30 - 80 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver. The short - term decline space is limited, but there is a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. L is expected to be in the range of [6900 - 7050] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the East China drawstring basis was 180 (up 38 month - on - month) [13]. - **Basic Logic**: In June, new capacity is concentrated, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to be weak and sideways, with a possible buffer increase at the beginning of the month [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is high pressure from new device production, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [6800 - 6950] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: The Changzhou basis was - 84 (up 10 month - on - month), and warehouse receipts continued to decline [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance decreases, supply increases, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The cost is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to cost collapse, device production expectations, and export uncertainties, the price still has a risk of further decline. Go short on rebounds. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4850] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 6900 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6618 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. The inventory decreased in April but is still high. In May, the fundamentals continued to improve, and it is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4940 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are many device maintenance and a plan for new capacity in June, the demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing. However, there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4730 - 4830]. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. MEG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4488 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4349 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4350 - 4430]. Continue to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price broke through support, the basis fluctuated slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and the decline in real - estate completion has expanded, so the medium - term demand for glass shrinks. In the short - term off - season, enterprises and traders reduce prices to clear inventory, and the cost center moves down [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [970 - 1000], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price was weak, the basis was low, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the number of forecasts decreased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is insufficient due to the weak glass market and the end of the photovoltaic installation peak. Inventory is high, and the cost center moves down [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1210], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda was stable, the futures price rose at a low level, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly as the capacity utilization rate rises. The profit of the alumina industry improves, and the inventory of caustic soda decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price corrects within a range, and SA is expected to be in the range of [2400 - 2450] [2][33]. Methanol - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities. MA is expected to be in the range of [2220 - 2280] [2]. Urea - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure remains, but there are positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period in July and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend, and a strategy of going long at low levels and shorting at high levels can be adopted. UR is expected to be in the range of [1780 - 1820] [2]. Asphalt - **Strategy Recommendation**: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3560] [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong supplementary increase [1] - Silver: Strong oscillation [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing trend of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, and the bull market for gold is far from over. Gold and silver prices are expected to rise, with silver following gold [2][3]. - Due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term with potential for long - term growth [1][5]. - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak, with limited upside potential in the long term [1][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to factors such as inventory and demand [8][9]. - Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound due to supply - demand games [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure because of supply overhang and cost factors [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Tariffs change again, geopolitical situation escalates, and the price of foreign gold rebounds strongly, with domestic gold making up the increase [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump plans to raise steel import tariffs, and the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the bull market for gold is far from over [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term gold, go long on the futures market, and control positions for long - term investment. Silver will follow the upward trend of gold, with a short - term range of [8200, 8450] [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME copper first declined and then rose, and COMEX copper rose by more than 3% [4]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and there are potential risks such as soft squeeze - out of warehouses. The downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai copper may open higher and move higher. It is recommended to go long on dips with light positions. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for LME copper is [9500, 9800] dollars [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME zinc rebounded and rose by more than 2% [6]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, affected by the steel market [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: LME zinc's rebound may drive Shanghai zinc to open higher. In the long term, short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2650, 2780] dollars/ton [7]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling [8]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - trade environment eases. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, and demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to overseas ore disturbances [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For Shanghai aluminum, look for short - term opportunities to short on rebounds, with a range of [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound, and stainless steel is relatively weak [10]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The cost support for nickel weakens, and the supply pressure is obvious. Stainless steel is entering the off - season, and inventory pressure may reappear [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, with a range for nickel of [118000 - 125000] [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and moved high, with significant position reduction and rebound [11]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply is in surplus. The upstream smelters have high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies, with a range of [59240 - 61000] [12].