Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

结合当下拥挤度和过往春季躁动胜率（2月）来看，目前拥挤度不高甚至极低、 春季躁动中胜率不错的AI应用（软件、传媒）、机器 人、创新药、储能可能是12月择机布局的重要方向。 02 美国或发布机器人行政命令 01春季躁动前，关注哪些方向？ 国海证券认为，每年2月是常规春季躁动区间，整体胜率最高。结合当下市场环境看，今年春季躁动行情或提前"抢跑"： 整体日历效应前移以及12月下旬美国11月就业、价格数据开始密集发布后，降息预期可能更加清晰， 有可能会出现12月下旬到明年1 月出春季躁动前移、成长风格提前回归的情况。 哪些方向值得关注： 一方面可以按照日历效应继续持有白电和银行，另一方面如果成长风格再度回踩，可以为可能提前的春季躁动做好准备。 美国政府正考虑在明年发布一项关于机器人技术的行政命令。美国商务部发言人回应称："我们致力于推动机器人和先进制造业，因为 它们是让关键生产回流美国的核心。"据一位熟悉计划的人士透露，美国交通部也正准备成立一个机器人工作组，可能在年底前宣布。 除此以外，美国国会议员对机器人技术的兴趣也在上升，共和党人曾提出设立国家机器人委员会。 东方证券汽零团队认为，此次消息反映了美国对人形机器人 ...

Market Overview - On December 8, the market experienced a positive day with major indices showing upward movement, particularly the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices breaking through the 30-day resistance level [1][3] - The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating a return to a bullish market environment, although there was a net outflow of 7.4 billion yuan, suggesting some caution among investors [3] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace and cross-strait sectors showed the strongest performance, with Aerospace Development leading the commercial aerospace sector, attracting attention due to significant gains by notable investors [4] - Technology stocks, particularly new energy and optical communication companies, also gained traction, with stocks like Tianfu Communication reaching a record high with a 19.19% increase [4] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing optimism among investors regarding a potential spring rally, driven by positive market data and the performance of technology stocks [4] - However, caution is advised as the sustainability of the technology stock rally remains to be seen, and investors are encouraged to remain vigilant [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a weak adjustment, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,765.36 points, down 319.72 points, a decline of 1.23% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,662.55 points, with a slight increase of 0.09 points [4] Company Performance - Excellence Education (HK02687) showed moderate performance in the morning, with gains kept within 30%, but surged after 3 PM, reaching a maximum increase of over 111%, ultimately closing up over 87% [5] - In contrast, the newly listed stock Naxin Micro (HK02676) opened flat but remained in a state of decline throughout the day, closing down 4.31% [7][8] Sector Insights - According to Frost & Sullivan, the top five companies in the Chinese higher education digitalization market hold a total market share of 12.9% as of 2024. Excellence Education ranks second in revenue with a market share of 4.0% in the overall digitalization market and first with a 7.3% market share in digital content production [7] - In the broader market, Baidu Group rose over 3%, Huahong Semiconductor increased over 4%, and SMIC gained over 2%. Conversely, Pop Mart fell over 8%, while Lao Pu Gold and Innovent Biologics dropped over 6%. Bank stocks collectively declined, with China Construction Bank down over 4% [10] Investment Outlook - Multiple institutions believe that the Hong Kong stock market is currently at a low valuation or in a positioning phase, with a positive outlook for 2026. Technology innovation, particularly in AI, and high-dividend assets are seen as promising investment themes [12] - There are differing opinions among institutions regarding market trends, with Huatai Securities suggesting an early "spring rally" for Hong Kong stocks, while Huaan Fund indicates a potential shift towards defensive dividend sectors as the year ends [13]

新华财经上海12月8日电 华泰证券发表最新A股策略观点认为，A股"春季躁动"可能提前启动。 转自：新华财经 华泰证券分析认为，上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面，联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升 共振下资金面环境有所改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF发行和申购回暖，保险风险因子下调或进 一步打开险资配置权益资产空间。景气度，近期TMT、上游资源景气改善幅度居前，关注AI链、涨价 链、资本品、大众消费品和基建链等线索。中央经济会议前政策预期或逐步升温，12月中下旬"春躁"可 能提前启动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓 选择。 编辑：林郑宏 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses the potential for an early spring market rally, suggesting that historical patterns indicate such rallies often occur ahead of schedule during bull markets [3][4] - Analysts believe that the current market environment, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may catalyze an earlier-than-usual spring rally [4][5] - Growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highlighted as key areas for investment as the market anticipates a shift towards growth styles [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The report indicates a continuous improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium battery industry, with production levels expected to stabilize around historical highs [10][11] - The solar energy sector is experiencing a decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, but supply-side reforms are expected to enhance market stability [6][7] - Wind energy projects are gaining momentum, with significant increases in domestic and international offshore wind turbine tenders, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [7][8] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum market is experiencing upward price pressure due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [16][17] - Domestic production of electrolytic aluminum is slightly increasing, but demand remains mixed, with some sectors showing signs of weakness as the market enters a seasonal slowdown [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates in the aluminum sector, as these factors will influence future pricing trends [18][19] Group 4: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal market is expected to see price increases in December, driven by seasonal demand and production adjustments, despite recent price declines [26][29] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the coal supply chain, including transportation issues and fluctuating demand from both power generation and industrial sectors [26][27] - Long-term trends suggest that coal prices may continue to rise due to structural factors such as rising operational costs and regulatory pressures [29][30] Group 5: Robotics Industry Developments - The report notes significant advancements in the robotics sector, with the U.S. government accelerating initiatives to promote industry growth [31][32] - Tesla's developments in humanoid robots are highlighted, indicating a focus on cost-effective production and potential market applications [32][33] - Various robotics companies are securing substantial funding to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [34][35][37]

H | | O 2025年12月8日 擊件驱动 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、市场回顾与展望:上周Ａ股市场延续上涨,但涨幅较前一周略有收窄。板块方面,有色金属、通 信、国防军工居涨幅榜前三;传媒、房地产、美容护理居跌幅榜前三。节奏来看,上周周中股市一度有所 回落,仅有部分结构行情表现 -- 譬如受到有色拉升传导带动的资源品行情。不过到周五在大金融等顺周 期板块的带动之下,推动情绪改善,对指数全周录得正收益贡献较大。驱动方面,周末消息面公布证券业 协会会员大会召开,透露出一系列改革举措,包括"对优质机构运当松绑,适度打开资本空间与杠杆限 制;证券公司要提供有利于长期投资、价值投资的产品";此外媒体报道基金公司薪酬总额将与产品业 绩、投资者盈亏挂钩等,有效解释了上周五非银金融板块涨幅居第一的原因。 后期来看,①本周将进入到年底12月份重磅政策会议的召开时间节点。按照惯例,政治局会议将在 上中旬召开、针对"十五五"规划的开局之年,2026年整体政策定调,包括在货币和财政方面的走向, 将成为市场关注的重中之重。若政策积极程度超预期、将有效带动情绪上行。2海外方 ...

春季躁动的 10 问 10 答 20251207 摘要 年底前，受考核和漂移回归需求影响，投资者趋于谨慎，市场成交量低 迷，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议能否带来强力催化剂存在不确定性。 历史数据显示，春节前两周左右通常开启一轮趋势性上涨，涨幅超 10%，今年春季躁动或为上涨中继型，指数仍有 10%以上上涨空间。 春季躁动行情启动时间受市场情绪和催化因素影响，若 12 月出现海外 降息问题解决或国内政策积极定调等强力催化，行情可能提前启动。 春季躁动期间，小盘股及科技板块表现突出，TMT 板块（计算机、电子、 通信）胜率高、弹性大，机械、化工、军工板块胜率相近但弹性稍弱。 节前防御性策略偏多，节后上行趋势更明确，春季躁动期间应重点关注 科技和高端制造领域。 长期持仓者可关注具备全球竞争优势的传统行业龙头企业，即"奔马资 产"，受益于外需上行和国内制造业政策支持，目前估值较低。 年底窗口期可关注低拥挤度标的，以及险资开门红增量带来的质量红利 和周期股，全年看好受益于外需提升及"十五五"规划重点任务的奔马 资产组合。 Q&A 目前市场对明年（2026 年）牛市的预期如何？短期内有哪些因素可能影响市 场表现？ 春季躁 ...

中信证券：应对常态 超预期的内需变化出现前，震荡和结构性机会的轮动是常态，资源/传统制造业在全球定价权的重估仍然是潜 力的被低估的方向。去年"9·24行情"以来，两轮市场水位的整体抬升都伴随着融资规模的系统性抬升，合计净 增了1.11万亿元，远超去年10月以来公募和私募主观多头产品新发总规模。在这两波行情当中，主要宽基和景 气行业都完成了绝大部分涨幅。如果剔除两轮融资的大幅上升阶段，其他时间市场基本是横盘震荡，在震荡期 还能实现有效上涨的板块主要是量化驱动的微盘、保险驱动的银行、涨价推动的有色以及管线出海推动的创新 药。 当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一定挑 战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压力可能会带 来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续资源/传统制造业 定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 华泰证券：春季躁动提前的能见度上升 上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面上，美联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升共振下资金面环境有所 改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 躁动行情何时至——策略周聚焦 从量、价、高低切看，本轮指数调整或已到位 11/21 上证指数跌破 MA60，为近半年首次。历史数据显示牛市中跌破 MA60 前 10 日平均跌幅达 5%，跌破后 10 日仅跌 2%，且 30 日内多收复失地。当前 指数自跌破 MA60 仅微跌 1%，显示调整或已到位。量能方面，全 A 成交额与 换手率分别回落至 16962 亿元和 3.19%，低于历史跌破后 10 日均值（测算成 交额 17147 亿元、换手率 3.38%），显示缩量基本完成。此外，行业分化指标 （前 5-后 5 行业涨幅差）从 10/9 的 69pct 高位回落至 11/21 的 47pct，目前已 回升至 60pct，叠加通信、有色、电新等前期领跌板块反弹，高低切或已结束。 当下需重点关注万科债务展期或在短期内加剧地产风险 尽管万科展期暂避违约，但若融资环境恶化，或引发房企信用连锁反应。当下 核心风险在于可能触发金融机构对国有房企的系统性信任危机，影响已超个体 流动性困境，或重塑国企地产信用评估逻辑，并对宏观流动性构成潜在冲击。 本轮春季躁动的启动可能受内外关键事件所驱 ...