现货黄金报3329附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报37.15美元/盎司； 基本面： 周五（7月11日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银价格长时间保持区间震荡行情，适当减少白银的投资时间周期，同时也可以减少白银的仓位，短期交易或者观 望为主。基本面美国劳动力市场的最新数据为金市分析提供了重要背景。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至7月5日当周，初请失业金人数意外降至22.7 万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，创七周以来最低水平。这一数据表明，尽管劳动力市场存在降温迹象，雇主仍在努力留住员工，显示出劳动力市场的韧 性。然而，续请失业金人数却升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，达到196.5万人，表明失业者寻找新工作的难度正在增加。景顺固定收益首席策略师Rob Waldner评论称，当前劳动力市场呈现出"停滞"特征，企业倾向于通过降低员工流失率和减少招聘来控制成本，而非大规模裁员。这种低裁员、低招聘的趋 势使得劳动力市场保持了相对稳定，但也为经济前景蒙上了一层不确定性。 劳动力市场的复杂信号对黄金市场的影响是双重的。一方面，强劲的就业数据提振了美元和美债收益率，进一步压制金价；另一方面，劳动力市场潜在的疲 软迹象可能在未来为黄 ...

7月11日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为774.32元/克，涨幅0.41%，沪银主力 报价为9113元/千克，涨幅2.57%；国际贵金属期也全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3346.60美元/盎司，涨幅 0.41%，COMEX白银报价38.20美元/盎司，涨幅1.55%。 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2025年7月11日） | 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 773.30 | 775.88 | 770.46 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 8955.00 | 9118.00 | 8922.00 | 元/千克 | | COMEX黄金 | 3333.10 | 3355.00 | 3332.30 | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银 | 38.21 | 38.26 | 37.51 | 美元/盎司 | 【消息面】 以色列国防部长表示如果伊朗威胁以色列，以色列将再次对伊朗采取打击行动。 【盘面分析】 7月10日，COMEX黄金价格上涨0.36%至3333.00美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨0.07%至 ...

Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]

2025 年 7 月 11 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、工业硅、多晶硅期货将震荡偏 强 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃期货将偏强震荡 原油期货 将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4000 和 4028 点，支撑位 3972 和 3952 点；IH2509 阻力位 2765 和 2780 点，支撑位 2740 和 2724 点；IC2509 阻力位 5900 和 5960 点，支撑位 5850 和 5823 点；IM250 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada starting August 1, following similar actions against over 20 countries, indicating a continued escalation of trade tensions [2][3] - Canada has shown a strong stance in response to the tariffs, with its Minister of Industry Melanie Joly stating that Canada will retaliate against the measures, highlighting the potential for further trade conflict [3] - The U.S. Treasury reported that tariff revenues exceeded $100 billion in the first seven months of 2025, with projections suggesting total tariff income could surpass $300 billion for the year [4] Group 2 - Trump has been vocal about the positive impacts of tariffs, claiming they are leading to economic prosperity in the U.S., including new factories and job creation, while dismissing concerns about inflation [4] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate policies, with some members suggesting a potential rate cut due to temporary inflation effects from tariffs [5] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned that the market may be underestimating the likelihood of interest rate hikes, citing inflationary pressures from tariffs and other economic factors [6] Group 3 - Recent labor market data indicates a cautious approach from U.S. companies regarding hiring, despite a decrease in unemployment claims, with the number of unemployment insurance recipients reaching a four-year high [7]

智通财经7月11日讯（编辑 刘蕊）今年上半年，美元经历了自1973年以来最糟糕的上半年表现，但美国 银行的分析显示，今年下半年，美元的下跌空间可能将有限。 美国银行是根据美、欧和亚州三个大的时区框架来进行分析的。 具体来说，美国银行发现，虽然美元整体价格走势不再与美联储降息概率高度相关，但在美国交易时间 内，美元累计回报率与2025年美联储利率的市场定价的相关性仍为+71%。 该行指出，如果美联储在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变，应该会在美国交易时段适度支撑美元。 而在亚洲时段内，亚洲投资者对于美元的抛售空间可能有限。 美国银行预计，后续亚洲投资者对于抛售美元的动力可能会有所减弱，他们可能会等待其他时区出现新 的看跌美元的催化剂，然后再推动美元走低。 相比之下，在欧洲交易时段，美元仍有很大的贬值空间，但美银指出，这可能需要全球股市在今年剩余 时间里跑赢美国股市。 随着美元年初以来持续下挫，外国投资者对于增持其他外汇、以对冲美元资产的动力已经明显减弱。 虽然全球股市在今年第一季度的表现优于美国市场，但在第二季度，美股显著反弹。美国银行表示，美 国和全球其他股票市场的相对表现，应该是2025年下半年全球外汇投资者关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures market is experiencing a general rise, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 0.36% to $3333.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 2.72% to $37.63 per ounce, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices in the near future [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3]. - Analysts suggest that the continuous increase in gold reserves by central banks, especially in emerging markets, reflects a growing emphasis on the reserve function of gold, providing medium to long-term support for gold investment value [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress may increase the national debt, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting gold prices [3]. - The uncertainty in trade negotiations between the U.S. and other countries, along with potential political turmoil from developments such as Elon Musk's new political party, is expected to bolster gold prices due to heightened risk aversion [3]. - The expectation of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, coupled with a weak dollar outlook, is anticipated to favorably impact gold prices [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Asset Correlation - Gold's low correlation with other assets indicates a long-term distrust in the dollar system, making gold a valuable tool for diversifying investment risk [5]. - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests that gold prices will rise due to factors such as U.S. tariff threats, expanding fiscal deficits, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [5]. - Forecasts indicate that gold prices may experience fluctuations from July to August, primarily due to internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate changes [6]. Group 4: Inflation and Geopolitical Factors - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on economic growth and inflation is expected to become evident, leading the Federal Reserve to rebalance its focus on employment and inflation, which may result in interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [6]. - The increasing frequency of global geopolitical conflicts is likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, thereby elevating its status and demand in global asset allocation [6].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.23%至 9682 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.26%至 78590 | | | 元/吨；国内现货铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美联储理事沃勒认为当前的联邦基金利 | | | 率过于具有限制性，并表示可能在本月底的美联储会议上就会支持降息，但认为美联 | | | 储应继续缩表，但缩表规模比预期低。另外，美联储内部继续就通胀未来产生分歧。特 | | | 朗普则继续敦促美联储降息，但从市场预测概率来看美联储 7 月降息概率仍较低。国 内方面，中国 6 月 CPI 同比涨 0.1%，核心 CPI 涨幅创 14 个月新高，PPI 同比降幅扩大 | | 铜 | 至 3.6%。库存方面来看，LME 库存增加 975 吨至 108100 吨；Comex 库存增加 7018 吨 | | | 至 20.97 万吨；SMM 周四统计全国主流地区铜库存较周一微增 0.08 万吨至 14.37 万吨， | | | 较上周四增加 1.19 万吨。需 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to various factors including geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and economic uncertainties [1][2][3] - The recent U.S. jobless claims data shows a decline, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, adding to the uncertainty in monetary policy [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the reasonable valuation for gold over the next three years is around $2,990 per ounce, influenced by the global central banks entering a loosening cycle [2] Group 2 - Metals Focus reports that the downside potential for gold prices in the second half of the year is limited due to ongoing economic uncertainties supporting investment demand [3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to fully affect consumers, contributing to the risk of economic stagnation [3] - Concerns over unsustainable global debt levels are also seen as a factor supporting the long-term upward trend in gold prices [3]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对巴西对等关税税率从 10%提高到 50%，关 税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求；美联储会议纪要显示大部分官员认为关 税政策带来的通胀压力将是暂时的；因此今年晚些时候将重启降息进程，美联储 降息预期再次升温并打压美元汇率和提振贵金属价格，伦敦黄金反弹至 3330 美元 /盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险 需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦 ...