宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite increased volatility in the international trade environment, China's industrial enterprises above a designated size reported a profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year from January to April, indicating a continued recovery trend [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - From January to April, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, with April alone showing a 3.0% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The industrial added value for the same period grew by 6.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.4% [2]. - The revenue profit margin for these enterprises rose by 0.17 percentage points to 4.87%, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2]. Group 2: Policy Support - A series of stable growth policies have been implemented to support industrial enterprises, particularly in response to external pressures [1][2]. - The State Council's meeting on April 18 emphasized measures to stabilize employment and foreign trade, as well as to promote consumption and domestic demand [1]. - Policies such as increased export tax rebates and financial support for foreign trade enterprises have created a favorable environment for trade development [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Among 41 major industrial sectors, 23 reported year-on-year profit growth, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading the way [3]. - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 11.2%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9.0%, surpassing the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 7.6 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises remains low, indicating a need for continued monitoring of profit trends [4]. - Expectations suggest that adjustments in tariffs between China and the U.S. may lead to reduced export costs and improved external demand, further supporting profit growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's fiscal revenue showed positive growth driven by improved tax revenue and a low base effect, supporting increased expenditure [1][3] Revenue Summary - In April, the general public budget revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, a rise of 1.6 percentage points from March, primarily due to a recovery in tax revenue [1][3] - Tax revenue in April grew by 1.9%, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 2.2%, while non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.7% [4][5] - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw notable declines in growth rates compared to the previous month, while personal income tax surged by 9.0% due to a low base effect [4][5] Expenditure Summary - In April, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than March's growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth [1][5] - Cumulative expenditure from January to April reached 31.5% of the annual budget, surpassing the average of the past five years [6] - Infrastructure-related expenditures grew by 2.2% in April, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending [7] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue in April rose by 8.1%, driven by positive growth in land transfer fees, which increased from a decline of 16.5% in March to 4.3% [8] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly higher than March's 27.9%, primarily due to the issuance of new special bonds and a low base effect [9]

研究所 宏观研究 5月经济高频数据环比回暖 投资要点 (1)5月经济景气度环比回升,稳增长政策效果仍需释放 从高频数据来看,5月经济景气度环比有所回暖,稳增长政策效 果显现,工业需求环比回升,消费具有季节性回升特点,面对外部高 不确定性,短期市场微观主体情绪趋于谨慎,生产表现为以订单驱动 的特点,生产表现相对平稳,但整体表现为供过于求的态势,有效需 求不足仍是制约经济的核心矛盾,带来要素市场景气度回落,PPI 同 比增速跌幅或进一步扩大,符合我们在报告《4月经济呈现供给驱动 特征,应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充》的基准假设。在此情境下, 基于避险和对政策不确定性的恐慌,在美国对我国加征关税的 90天 豁免期内,美国或加大进口,以避免未来不确定性影响,这或支撑短 期我国出口韧性,亦维持短期生产稳定。但因市场微观主体偏于谨慎, 企业生产或以订单驱动,投资扩产意愿下降:以内需为主的企业或担 忧外贸转内需的潜在影响,其投资扩产亦受一定冲击:市场微观个体 对就业和收入预期或有所下降,居民预算约束趋严,进而对消费形成 收缩压力。在此背景下,国内稳增长政策可对冲部分外部冲击影响, 但 PPI 同比增速跌幅进一步扩大,或指向 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The overall profit from blast furnace steel production is considered satisfactory, and the profit recovery for general steel companies may accelerate [3]. - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions, the steel industry's overall profit is expected to decline, but with the implementation of various "stability growth" policies, steel demand is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase [4]. - The report highlights that general steel companies, which are less affected by export tariffs, may see significant performance improvements due to the marginal recovery in demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 0.94% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in special steel (0.28%), long products (0.36%), and flat products (1.21%) [3][11]. 2. Supply Data - As of May 23, the average daily pig iron production was 2.436 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.17 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 6.71 tons [28]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 91.3%, down 0.44 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 2.93 percentage points to 59.5% [28]. 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 9.046 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 92,000 tons, reflecting a 1.01% decline [37]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 1.47 tons week-on-week, marking a 13.33% decrease [37]. 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.606 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 331,000 tons, or 3.33% [45]. - Factory inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons, up 0.99 tons week-on-week, but down 6.67% year-on-year [45]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for general steel was 3,452.2 yuan/ton, down 33.36 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.96% [51]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,652.6 yuan/ton, down 3.32 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.05% [51]. 6. Profitability - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 88 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 14.56% [59]. - The average profit margin for 247 steel companies was 59.74%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points week-on-week [59]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong cost control [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - For aluminum, due to the complex situation of production and demand, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - Nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term with a cost - supported downside limit and a supply surplus situation [3][5] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and it is necessary to focus on supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of May 21, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract rose 0.31% to 78,100 yuan/ton. Macro factors are positive, but the demand shows weakening signs, and the support of inventory for copper prices is weakening [1] Aluminum - As of May 21, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.65% to 20,190 yuan/ton. The alumina price has rebounded, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The downstream demand may weaken, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - As of May 21, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.05% to 123,280 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 21, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract rose 1.11% to 267,730 yuan/ton. The tin ore supply is tight, and the production resumption expectation is strong. The price volatility is expected to increase [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price rose, but the spot market trading was light, and the spot premium decline suppressed the price [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rose, but the market transaction was mediocre, and the high - price supply demand was weak [8] Alumina - The alumina spot price in different regions rose, and the market trading was active with sufficient trading momentum [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price rose, but the downstream procurement was cautious, and the transaction was light [10] Lead - The spot lead price rose, and the market activity increased slightly with mainly rigid - demand procurement [11][12] Nickel - The spot nickel price rose, but the traders were cautious, and the transaction was light [13] Tin - The spot tin price rose, the traders' rigid - demand restocking willingness increased, and there was a phenomenon of reluctant selling [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For copper, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,520 tons to 41,218 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,925 tons to 168,825 tons [16] - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,625 tons to 59,521 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,025 tons to 388,900 tons [16] - For zinc, SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 126 tons to 1,400 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 1,150 tons to 157,875 tons [16] - For lead, SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3,884 tons to 41,096 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 36,375 tons to 282,125 tons [16] - For nickel, SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 128 tons to 23,014 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons to 201,786 tons [16] - For tin, SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8,070 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons to 2,670 tons [16]

Group 1 - The core prediction for 2025 indicates a decline in the US stock market, dollar, and US Treasury bonds, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to enter a bull market driven by technology stocks [1][2] - The US economy is projected to slow down, with the Federal Reserve continuing its rate-cutting cycle, leading to a gradual decline in the dollar index and increased risks of a peak in the US stock market [2][3] - The recent launch of China's DeepSeek model has challenged the perception of US technological dominance, contributing to a decline in US tech stocks [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been delayed due to concerns over rising prices from the trade war, despite previous cuts totaling 100 basis points [3][4] - Warren Buffett's significant reduction in US stock holdings is attributed to high valuations, with Berkshire Hathaway holding $350 billion in cash, indicating a cautious approach to market entry [4] - China's economic data shows improvement, with a target GDP growth of around 5% for the year, necessitating more stable growth policies to boost investment and consumption [5][6] Group 3 - A significant shift of household savings towards capital markets is anticipated, as the real estate market has peaked and is no longer a viable investment avenue [6][7] - The decline in deposit rates below 1% is expected to encourage investments in the stock market, with government policies aimed at stabilizing both the real estate and stock markets [7][8] - Fiscal policies are expected to play a crucial role in stimulating consumption and investment, especially during periods of economic slowdown [8][9] Group 4 - The market is likely to favor high-quality leading stocks in sectors such as brand consumption, new energy, technology, and brokerage firms, with technology stocks leading the charge [8][9] - International market volatility is expected to increase, with gold prices projected to rise in the long term due to the depreciation of the dollar's value [9][10] - The expectation of a stronger RMB and increased foreign investment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is noted, as Chinese assets are considered undervalued [10][11] Group 5 - A bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is anticipated, with significant investment opportunities and a notable increase in the potential for profit [11][12] - The overall market is still at a low point, presenting a favorable time for strategic investments in Chinese assets as valuations are expected to recover [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern recently [1] - For aluminum, with the uncertain impact of the Guinea issue and the approaching off - season, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - Nickel is expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weakening trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5] - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, and it is necessary to focus on supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of May 20, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.26% to 77,540 yuan/ton. Macro factors are positive, but the demand has shown signs of weakening, and the inventory is accumulating at a low level [1] Aluminum - As of May 20, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.45% to 20,075 yuan/ton. The Guinea issue affects the alumina price, and the downstream demand may weaken with the approaching off - season [2] Nickel - As of May 20, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.83% to 122,870 yuan/ton. The nickel market has a complex situation with cost support but supply surplus in the medium - to - long - term [3][5] Tin - As of May 20, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract rose 0.29% to 264,760 yuan/ton. The tin market has a tight raw material supply, and the price is affected by supply resumption and downstream demand [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Spot copper prices rose, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced copper was limited, and the actual procurement was mainly based on rigid demand [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum market showed a weak transaction, with the holder reluctant to sell at a low price and the downstream having a low procurement willingness [8] Alumina - The alumina spot market was active, with the price rising and the trading volume increasing [9] Zinc - The spot zinc market had a weak transaction, and the downstream entered the traditional off - season with low procurement willingness [10] Lead - The lead spot market had a general trading atmosphere, and the downstream replenished inventory according to rigid demand [11][12] Nickel - The nickel spot market had an improved transaction compared with the previous day, with the demand for rigid procurement increasing at low prices [13] Tin - The tin spot market had a slow sales situation, with some merchants having a strong wait - and - see attitude [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 16,175 tons to 45,738 tons; LME copper inventory decreased by 3,575 tons to 170,750 tons [16] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,351 tons to 61,146 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,525 tons to 390,925 tons [16] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons to 1,526 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,075 tons to 156,725 tons [16] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5,067 tons to 44,980 tons; LME lead inventory decreased by 600 tons to 245,750 tons [16] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 329 tons to 23,142 tons; LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202,098 tons [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 94 tons to 8,025 tons; LME tin inventory decreased by 85 tons to 2,655 tons [16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates are aimed at addressing the high real interest rates that are constraining economic growth and consumer spending [1][2][3] Group 1: LPR and Deposit Rate Adjustments - On May 20, the People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month [1][2] - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have also lowered deposit rates, with the rates for demand deposits, 1-year fixed deposits, and 3-year fixed deposits reduced to 0.05%, 0.95%, and 1.25%, respectively [1][2] - The adjustments are part of a broader financial policy initiative that was anticipated in the market, reflecting a transmission mechanism linking policy rates to LPR and deposit rates [2][9] Group 2: Economic Implications - High real interest rates are identified as a significant barrier to economic growth, increasing debt pressure and limiting investment and consumption [1][3] - The reduction in nominal interest rates, through both LPR and deposit rate cuts, is expected to balance asset-liability sheets and stimulate microeconomic activity [1][3] - The adjustments are seen as a necessary step to enhance the overall demand in the economy and support growth [9] Group 3: Changes in Rate Adjustment Patterns - The recent LPR adjustments indicate a shift in the approach to rate cuts, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPR being reduced simultaneously, a departure from previous practices where they were adjusted separately [10][11] - This change is attributed to a broader growth stabilization strategy that encompasses various sectors beyond real estate, including manufacturing and consumer spending [11][12] Group 4: Deposit Rate Dynamics - The reduction in fixed deposit rates is more pronounced than that of demand deposit rates, leading to a flatter deposit rate curve [12][13] - This strategy aims to alleviate the trend of deposit termization and reduce banks' funding costs, thereby enhancing their lending capacity [12][13] - The overall decline in deposit rates is intended to stabilize interest margins and encourage banks to increase credit supply to the real economy [13][14] Group 5: Future Policy Directions - The current monetary policy adjustments are seen as a foundational step, with further fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures anticipated to support consumption, trade, and technological advancements [15][16] - The government aims to enhance income for low- and middle-income groups and promote service consumption to drive economic growth [15][16] - Ongoing efforts to optimize supply-side policies and address competitive pressures in various sectors are also highlighted as critical for future economic stability [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is favorable, but the fundamentals of non - ferrous metals are mixed. Copper may maintain a volatile pattern, aluminum requires observation, nickel is expected to oscillate weakly, and tin price volatility may increase [1][3][5][6] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract 06 dropped 0.63% to 77,820 yuan/ton. The macro trading sentiment has warmed up, but the fundamentals are weakening with demand showing signs of decline and inventory starting to accumulate at a low level. The spot premium may be under pressure, and it may maintain a volatile pattern [1] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices dropped significantly. The downstream's low purchasing willingness led to light trading during the day [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,334 tons to 61,913 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 174,325 tons [16] Aluminum - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract 07 fell 0.20% to 20,110 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has affected alumina prices. Alumina production capacity and inventory are changing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing. The downstream开工率 may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - In the spot market, the aluminum market's trading was stable with most areas having a small premium, while the Guangdong market was at a discount. The alumina market's trading heat continued to rise [8] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 323 tons to 62,497 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 393,450 tons [16] Nickel - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract 06 dropped 0.67% to 123,850 yuan/ton. The macro situation has changed, and the supply - demand relationship in the nickel market is complex. The cost is firm, but there is a long - term supply surplus, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [5] - In the spot market, some merchants replenished their stocks at low prices at the beginning of the week, but overall trading activity needs further improvement [13] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons to 23,471 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 6,786 tons to 202,008 tons [16] Tin - As of May 19, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract 06 fell 0.22% to 264,860 yuan/ton. Tin production and import - export data have changed. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine resumption. The price volatility may increase, and it is necessary to focus on supply and demand [6] - In the spot market, merchants replenished their stocks at low prices for essential needs [14] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 64 tons to 8,119 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 5 tons to 2,740 tons [16] Zinc - In the spot market, the price of zinc dropped. The market trading was lackluster, with loose supply leading to a decline in the premium and weak trading [9][10] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 474 tons to 1,701 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 160,800 tons [16] Lead - In the spot market, the price of lead dropped. The downstream replenished stocks as needed, and the overall trading was average [11][12] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 126 tons to 50,047 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 246,350 tons [16]