【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议， 越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收 40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税 费。评：关说谈判及相关制裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡 化，市场未来关注焦点是地缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指 数再度走弱，提振黄金，黄金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关 注美元指数走势。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，短期震荡偏 多，但上方空间有限。 投资咨询中心 2025年07月03日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开 工率59.72%较上期增0.62%；日均产量50.59万吨增0.45万吨； 原煤库存312.17万吨减9.11万吨；精煤库存214.98万吨减16.89 万吨。评：供应端煤矿产量稳步复产，但阶段性补库节奏下， 部分煤种供应略显吃紧，近日成交有明显好转，炼焦煤线上竞 拍流拍率已连续多日处于低位，成交价格有不同程度反弹，但 短期内供需基 ...

Market Review and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 1110 billion, 6416 billion, and 1150 billion respectively, with net financing of 1110 billion, 5604 billion, and 1093 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 839 billion with a net financing of 612 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 2889 billion and a net financing of 11 billion [1] - The secondary market exhibited a fluctuating performance influenced by factors such as cross-quarter liquidity, the ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, military parade news, and market sentiment [1] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) showed a net injection, and the medium-term lending facility (MLF) was rolled over, supporting the cross-quarter liquidity [1] - The R001 and R007 rates increased by 1.2 basis points and 32.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [1] Policy and Fundamentals - In May, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative, impacted by base effect, price wars, and tariff shocks [1] - High-frequency data indicates stable production, sluggish consumption, and continued pressure on prices, with a significant drop in oil prices following the ceasefire [1] Overseas Market - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish views, and weakening economic data in the U.S. has raised market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.29%, down 9 basis points from the previous week [1] Equity Market - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a rise in most broad-based A-share indices, with the total A-share index increasing by 3.56% and the ChiNext index rising by 5.69% [2] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares surged to 1.49 trillion, with a weekly increase of 2716.46 billion [2] - As of June 26, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares reached 18265.35 billion, an increase of 173.68 billion from June 19 [2] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favoring the bond market are increasing in July, although the central bank's monetary policy tone may lead to a temporary market sentiment adjustment [2] - Historical trends suggest that bond market bullish forces may strengthen in July due to seasonal liquidity easing and reduced bank liability pressure [2] - A recommended strategy includes a combination of short to medium-term credit bonds and long-duration government bonds [2] - The convertible bond market faces supply-demand imbalances, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, leading to a scarcity of underlying assets [2]

Core Insights - The issuance of equity funds has reached a ten-year high, with stock funds accounting for 35.46% of total issuance, the highest proportion in nearly a decade [1][3] - The market for public funds has seen a resurgence, particularly in equity funds, driven by improved performance and market conditions [2][3] - Index products, especially ETFs, are the primary focus for many large fund companies in their upcoming strategies [1][5] Fund Issuance Trends - As of June 30, the A-share market has rebounded by 11.23%, leading to a significant improvement in equity fund performance, with over 80% of 7216 comparable equity funds achieving positive returns in the first half of the year [2][3] - In June alone, 155 new funds were issued, raising a total of 122.12 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 86% from the previous month [2] - The number of newly established equity funds reached 387, with a total issuance of 188.06 billion yuan, a 1.83 times increase compared to the same period last year [3] Focus on Index and "Fixed Income +" - Currently, over 70% of the funds being issued or planned are equity products, with index products being particularly favored [5][6] - Fund companies are focusing on innovative index products, including those related to hard technology and diversified asset allocation [6][7] - "Fixed Income +" products are also gaining traction due to their ability to balance returns and investor experience in volatile markets [6][7] Market Outlook - As the market enters the second half of the year, institutions are expected to continue focusing on index and "Fixed Income +" products, with many companies planning to launch new funds [4][5] - Some companies are exploring innovative product directions and considering the issuance of bond funds, indicating a diversification strategy [7]

刚进入股市时，就被灌输过一个理念："市场永远是对的"，但后来却发现，市场不一定永远是对的。如 果是因为人性弱点导致的波动，那可能就是市场在犯错，而我们就可以利用这个错误来进行操作。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250701— "股债跷跷板"失灵（-财新制造业PMI偏强-股市小幅上涨+尾盘资金转松+国债发行缩 量=微下)】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1310亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4065亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2755亿元。 -------------------------- 尾盘利率一波0.4BP的"巨幅"下行，债农惊呼：莫不是央妈公告买债了？定睛一看，原来是财爸公告周 五国债发行节奏开始放缓：7Y国债发行1090亿（上一期为1700亿）、10Y国债发行1310亿（上一期为 1700亿）。 今日股市延续涨势，但"股债跷跷板"略显失灵。债农淡定：慌啥？领涨的是咱"避险资产"同门师兄—— 银行。你看人家花旗对黄金的展望，主打一个"随机应变"，咱债农也一样"专业灵活"：昨天上了？剑指 1.7%！今天下了？格局1.6%！ -------------------------- 【今日 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】欧盟决定将针对俄罗斯的制裁措施再延长6 个月，至2026年1月31日。相关措施覆盖俄罗斯贸易、金融、能 源、技术和军民两用产品等多个领域。评：关税谈判及相关制 裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡化，市场未来关注焦点是地 缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指数再度走弱，提振黄金，黄 金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关注美元指数走势。黄金中期 震荡格局并未改变，短期震荡偏多，但上方空间有限。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2790元/吨，下降30元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存67.05万吨，周上升14.34%；甲醇 样本生产企业库存34.16万吨，周减少2.58万吨；样本企业订单 待发24.07万吨，周下降3.31万吨；甲醇开工91.31%，周上升 2.65%；下游总产能利用率75.57%，周下降0.2%。评：成本端煤 炭价格预期较稳，国内甲醇开工预期高位运行，下游需求较 稳，本周预计进口到货有所减量，港口或去库。内地甲醇市场 偏弱，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差小幅走弱，整体 商谈成交一般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2400 一线，建议空单谨慎持有。 投资咨询中心 ...

| 重点关注 | 7月01日 16:00 欧元区6月制造业PMI终值 7月01日 22:00 美国6月ISM制造业PMI 7月02日 20:15 美国6月ADP就业人数(万人) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | | | | | 研究员： | | 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The current macro asset allocation logic is primarily driven by the "look at stocks to do bonds" approach, as the main liquidity improvement is due to the migration of household deposits rather than central bank monetary easing [2][9][21]. Group 1: Macro Asset Allocation Analysis - Analyzing the stock-bond relationship is crucial in macro asset allocation, where the environment can either favor "look at stocks to do bonds" or "look at bonds to do stocks" [8][13]. - In a "look at stocks to do bonds" environment, the upward movement of stock prices influences bond trading behavior, while in a "look at bonds to do stocks" environment, falling interest rates affect stock market valuations [8][13]. - The current liquidity improvement is characterized by a significant migration of household deposits to non-bank financial institutions, with approximately 6.2 trillion yuan moving in the first five months of 2025, marking the highest level since 2009 [9][21]. Group 2: Special Characteristics of Current Liquidity - The current migration of household deposits is unique as it does not follow an improvement in economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where such migrations occurred after economic recovery [3][28]. - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down has limited the extent to which risk appetite can express downward movements in the stock market [4][28]. - Financial regulations established in 2017 and 2022 have heightened vigilance against financial practices that lead to asset bubbles, impacting the current liquidity dynamics [5][28]. Group 3: Implications of Current Trends - The current environment suggests that as the stock market strengthens, the risk of systemic asset price bubbles increases, leading to tighter monetary policy and pressure on the bond market [30]. - Conversely, if the stock market weakens, the central bank's focus on stabilizing market expectations increases, potentially leading to short-term dual bullish trends in both stocks and bonds [30].

Group 1: Macro Analysis - Understanding the relationship between stocks and bonds is crucial for macro asset allocation decisions[2] - Current liquidity improvement is primarily driven by the migration of household deposits, differing from the monetary easing seen in 2014-2015[5] - The scale of non-bank liquidity growth in the first five months of 2025 is approximately CNY 6.2 trillion, compared to CNY 1.6 trillion in the same period of 2015[5][20] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The prevailing logic is to "look at stocks to do bonds," indicating a stock-driven market where risk appetite influences bond trading[3][4] - In the current environment, if stocks rise, bond yields are likely to follow, while a decline in stocks may lead to bond price increases[3][4] - The current market is characterized by a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, rather than a simultaneous bullish trend in both[3][4] Group 3: Special Considerations - Unique factors this round include the difficulty for household deposits to return to real estate, leading to a stronger migration towards non-bank institutions[3] - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down limits the downward expression of risk appetite in the stock market[3] - The current liquidity situation is not a result of improved economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where deposit migration followed economic recovery[8][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the trading volume is continuously increasing. Long positions in stock index futures IF2509 should be held. - Polysilicon prices continue to decline, while the support for Shanghai aluminum is relatively strong. - The long - term upward trend of stock indices is clear, although there may be short - term fluctuations. High - valuation bonds face repair pressure. - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation, with a long - term bullish view on gold. - Copper, aluminum, and nickel prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are in a range - bound state, with different influencing factors for each. - The supply of lithium carbonate and polysilicon exceeds demand, and their prices are under pressure. - Steel prices are oscillating weakly, while iron ore prices are relatively firm and run in a narrow range. - Coal and coke prices are in a bottom - building stage, with a weak supply - demand relationship. - The support for glass is stronger than that for soda ash. - Crude oil prices may oscillate weakly and are in a repair stage. - Methanol prices have support due to potential supply tightening in the third quarter. - Polyolefin prices are oscillating, and their pricing depends on supply and demand. - Cotton prices have relatively strong support, while rubber prices are oscillating weakly. [1][2][4][6][8][10] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Market sentiment is positive, trading volume is increasing, and the long - term upward trend of stock indices is clear. Long positions in IF2509 should be held. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and high - valuation bonds face repair pressure. [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The domestic macro - economic outlook has improved, and the high - valuation bond market faces repair pressure. It is in a range - bound oscillation. [1] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risk premiums have significantly declined, and prices are in a high - level oscillation. The long - term bullish view on gold remains unchanged, and short - put options on gold and silver 08 contracts can be held. [4] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weakening US dollar index supports copper prices, but demand expectations are cautious, and the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness may continue. [4] - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand of Shanghai aluminum are mixed, and low inventory and supply constraints support prices. Alumina has excess pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be waited for at high prices. [4] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, but resource - end support is strong, and it continues to oscillate in a range. [4] Energy and Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, prices are under pressure, and short - call options can be held. [6] - **Crude Oil**: After the rapid rise and fall in the short - term, the market needs to oscillate and repair. It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Methanol**: Although the coastal demand has weakened and port inventories have increased, supply may tighten in the third quarter, and the 09 contract price has support. [10] Steel and Minerals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils have not changed much, demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron ore prices are relatively firm and run in a narrow range. [6] - **Coal and Coke**: The coal and coke market is in a bottom - building stage. The long - term oversupply pattern of coking coal has not improved, and short - positions in coking coal futures can be stopped for profit. Coke supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price has rebounded first. [8] Building Materials - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash supply exceeds demand, and short - positions can be held. The support for glass is stronger than that for soda ash, and long - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage strategies can be considered. [8] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and prices have relatively strong support. [10] - **Rubber**: The supply increases while the demand decreases, and prices are under pressure and oscillate weakly. [10] Polyolefins - Polyolefin production and trader inventories have significantly decreased. If there are more maintenance devices in July, futures prices will decline limitedly. Otherwise, prices may hit new lows for the year. [10]

Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has reached a new high in scale at 20.874 billion yuan, with a recent price of 106.08 yuan and continuous net inflow of 5.305 billion yuan over the past 14 days [1] - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has seen a slight increase of 0.04%, with a latest price of 117.51 yuan and a cumulative increase of 1.16% over the past three months [4] - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years has a total scale of 1.463 billion yuan and has recorded a net inflow of 31.7393 million yuan recently [4] Group 2 - The national development bond ETF (159651) is currently priced at 106.19 yuan, with an average daily transaction volume of 5.34 billion yuan over the past year [7] - The relationship between stocks and bonds is influenced by cash flow effects and discount rate effects, which can lead to divergence in their price movements under changing macroeconomic conditions [8] - The current market environment suggests that if financial stocks do not continue to rise, the bond market may gradually recover as liquidity improves [8]