Macroeconomic and Strategic Research - In June 2025, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, while imports rose by 1.1%, recovering from a 3.4% decline in the previous month [2] - The trade surplus reached USD 114.77 billion, compared to USD 103.22 billion in May [2] - The rebound in export growth is attributed to the delayed effects of the US-China tariff suspension and ongoing demand from ASEAN countries, although future costs may rise due to new US-Vietnam tariff agreements [2] - The global manufacturing PMI returned above the neutral line, providing support for Chinese exports, with significant improvements noted in South Korea's export growth [2] - Import growth was driven by strong demand for high-end manufacturing products, particularly semiconductors, contributing approximately 1.8 percentage points to the overall import growth [3] - Export pressures are expected to emerge by the end of Q3 2025, influenced by US tariff policies and potential demand shifts [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance guidance rates for credit bonds mostly declined, with an overall change of -9 basis points to 0 basis points [4] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance while other types experienced growth [5] - The secondary market saw a decrease in transaction volume, with corporate bonds and company bonds increasing while medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds decreased [5] - Credit spreads for short-term and corporate bonds narrowed, indicating a generally low historical spread level, particularly for AAA-rated five-year bonds [5] - The report suggests a cautious approach to investing in credit bonds, emphasizing the importance of monitoring interest rate trends and individual bond coupon values [5] Industry Research - The metal industry faces increased uncertainty due to tariffs, with notable developments including Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, and a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production from Codelco [7] - The steel sector shows manageable inventory levels and limited supply-demand conflicts, with raw material prices rebounding, supporting price stability [8] - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply and low inventory, compounded by US tariff policies creating trade uncertainties [8] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to macroeconomic uncertainties and subdued downstream demand during the off-season [8] - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future movements dependent on economic data and geopolitical developments [8] - The lithium market is experiencing downward pressure from oversupply, despite some support from "anti-involution" sentiments [8] - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "positive" rating for non-ferrous metals, recommending increased holdings in specific companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown strong performance and liquidity, with significant inflows and a positive outlook for the credit bond market in China [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 7, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 0.26%, ranking in the top 25% among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 12.742 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking second among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has achieved a monthly profitability percentage of 80.00% since its inception, with a historical holding period of 3 months showing a 100.00% profitability probability [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 74.67% during trading, with a total transaction volume of 9.562 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF averaged daily transactions of 5.386 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, totaling 430 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 185 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The ETF's maximum drawdown since inception is 0.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.10%, indicating a relatively stable performance [4]. - The Sharpe ratio for the past month is 1.63, placing it in the top 50% among comparable funds, suggesting higher returns for the same level of risk [4]. - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Market Context - The CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange highlighted the growing demand for connectivity between global and domestic markets, with the Bond Connect program being a preferred channel for international investors in China's interbank bond market [3]. - Guohai Securities maintains an optimistic outlook for the credit bond market, suggesting strategies to explore short-term yields and focus on high-valuation, liquid targets in the 3-5 year range [3].

Group 1 - The macro environment for credit bonds remains favorable in July 2025, with a focus on new supply and demand changes, particularly the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - Credit bond supply is not expected to improve significantly, but structural changes are emerging, with a notable increase in the issuance of technology innovation bonds [3] - The overall yield of various credit bonds is at a relatively low level since 2024, with credit spreads showing differentiation, particularly in the short and medium to long-term segments [3][26] Group 2 - The credit bond market is expected to experience a strong but volatile performance in July, supported by the recovery of wealth management scale and the expansion of ETFs, which may further improve demand for credit bonds [3] - A stable coupon strategy is recommended, with a focus on opportunities and risks arising from the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - The report suggests a 2-3 year short to medium-term strategy while actively exploring the value of medium to high-grade credit bonds in the 3-5 year range, particularly 4-5 year bonds [3] Group 3 - The characteristics of credit bond ETF constituent bonds include a predominance of high ratings (AA+ and above), with a higher proportion of central and state-owned enterprises [7] - Recent performance of constituent bonds has been strong, with increased liquidity and a relative decline in yields and credit spreads compared to non-constituent bonds [7] - Strategies for credit bond ETF expansion include early positioning in constituent bonds before listing and focusing on related non-constituent bond opportunities [7][5] Group 4 - In June 2025, the issuance and net financing of traditional credit bonds increased, with a total issuance of 1.304 trillion yuan and net financing of 252.7 billion yuan [13] - The net financing of urban investment bonds expanded further, while the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds also saw a significant increase [13] - The report highlights that the credit bond yield overall declined in June, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones [19][27]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics influenced by **geopolitical conflicts** and **monetary policy** adjustments. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Liquidity and Monetary Policy** - Current liquidity is relatively abundant, supported by the central bank's reverse repos and net injections, alleviating market concerns ahead of the half-year mark [1][3][4] - The new interest rate corridor has been established, with DR001's quarterly fluctuations between OMO -20 and OMO +50, indicating potential downward trends in interest rates [1][3] 2. **Geopolitical Impact on Monetary Policy** - Uncertainties in the global political landscape, including U.S.-China relations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to influence central bank policies, potentially leading to a loosening of monetary policy [1][5] - The macroeconomic data for June is anticipated to peak, with subsequent weakness providing justification for easing measures [1][5] 3. **Future Interest Rate Predictions** - A trend of declining interest rates is predicted from June to September 2025, with potential rate cuts in August or September leading to mid-to-long-term bond fund yields of 2.5% to 3% [1][4][5] - If a rate cut occurs, it could result in an increase of 15 to 20 basis points, translating to approximately 1% performance growth [5] 4. **Market Liquidity Conditions** - The current liquidity situation in the bond market is favorable, with major banks' lending reaching annual highs, indicating no lack of liabilities [3][7] - Despite the liquidity, market interest rates remain above 1.65%, with a focus on the demand side, particularly from traditional commercial banks [7] 5. **Geopolitical Conflicts and Asset Classes** - Historical trends show that geopolitical conflicts typically raise gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields while affecting the Chinese bond market differently due to domestic pricing mechanisms [8] - The impact of geopolitical tensions on economic growth, inflation, and external balance pressures is complex, with both positive and negative implications for the bond market [8] 6. **Outlook for Credit Bond Market** - The credit bond market is viewed positively despite geopolitical tensions, with recommendations to maintain a bullish stance [2][11][10] Other Important Insights - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum and the Politburo meeting at the end of July are expected to provide favorable news that could further drive interest rates down [6] - The unusual behavior of the U.S. dollar index during recent geopolitical events suggests a weakening of its safe-haven status, which may provide more room for Chinese monetary policy [9][10]

Focus on Credit ABS - The Banking Credit Asset Registration and Circulation Center has revised the rules for credit asset securitization, requiring reporting of significant events that may adversely affect asset-backed securities within three working days [1] Macro Dynamics - The Trading Association and Shanghai Bill Exchange held a meeting to discuss the expansion of supply chain bill ABS business, aiming to connect the bill market with the bond market and support small and micro enterprises [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 454.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 830 billion yuan in reverse repos [4][5] Regional Highlights - Zhengzhou plans to add seven urban renewal projects with a total investment of 13.176 billion yuan [6] - Zhejiang issued the first special bonds for acquiring existing housing, totaling 1.653 billion yuan for eight projects [8] - Shaanxi is guiding enterprises to formulate debt repayment plans and explore various financing channels [9] - Shaoxing is providing subsidies to listed companies for refinancing and debt financing [10] Issuance Dynamics - Zhengzhou Transportation Development Investment Group issued 500 million yuan in green perpetual bonds at a rate of 2.20% [11] - Luohe Investment Holding Group issued 660 million yuan in company bonds at a rate of 2.30% [12] - Kaifeng Urban Development Group is seeking underwriters for a bond issuance of up to 1 billion yuan [13] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 80 billion yuan in book-entry discount treasury bonds [14] - China Great Wall Asset Management issued the first bad asset securitization product in the exchange market, totaling 1.77 billion yuan [15] - Xinjiang Small Loan Company issued 300 million yuan in bonds to support small and micro enterprises [16] Market Sentiment - The credit bond market is expected to experience a high probability of fluctuation and decline in June, influenced by ongoing interest rate adjustments and new policy financial tools [22] - Static analysis indicates that various credit bonds can withstand limited upward pressure in June [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the credit bond market from April 28 to May 11, 2025, covering primary and secondary markets, along with major industry events. It shows that credit bond issuance had a negative net financing, and secondary - market trading volume decreased due to the May Day holiday. There were no rating adjustments for bond - issuing entities during this period [6][13][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Market Five Major Hotspots - On May 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced policies to support the issuance of science - and - technology innovation bonds, including flexible bond terms, simplified issuance management, and inclusion in financial institution evaluations [12]. - On May 7, 2025, the State Council Information Office held a press conference announcing a series of "package monetary policy measures", such as reducing the deposit - reserve ratio, policy interest rates, and personal housing provident fund loan interest rates, and increasing re - loan quotas [12]. - The Q1 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report shows that the GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, with stable financial aggregates, low financing costs, and optimized credit structure. It also emphasizes reducing bank liability costs and the sustainability of government debt [12]. - As of May 11, 2025, over 30 provinces and cities in China have piloted spot - housing sales, with some cities like Hefei and Zhengzhou implementing specific projects [12]. - From May 7, 2025, the inter - bank bond market will fully exempt trading fees for science - and - technology innovation bonds until 2027, and various institutions have announced issuance plans [12]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Net Financing During April 28 - May 11, 2025, the credit bond issuance scale was 287.076 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 76.073 billion yuan. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 73.701 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 81.507 billion yuan, while the issuance scale of industrial bonds was 213.375 billion yuan, with a net financing of 5.434 billion yuan [6][13]. 3.2.2 Credit Bond Issuance Interest Rates The weighted average issuance interest rate of credit bonds during this period was 2.05%, and the weighted average issuance interest rates of each bond type decreased compared to the previous period (April 14 - April 27, 2025) [6][16]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Credit Bond Trading Activity Affected by the May Day holiday, the secondary - market credit bond trading volume decreased, with a cumulative trading volume of 1199.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 562.13 billion yuan compared to the previous period. The trading volumes of each bond type decreased [6][18]. 3.3.2 Credit Bond Institutional Behavior - Credit bond long - short concentration: No specific data analysis was provided, only relevant charts were presented [21]. - Credit bond allocation power: The table shows the net purchases of credit bonds by different institutions from April 28 to May 9, 2025, and the total net purchases for last week and this week [24]. 3.3.3 Credit Bond Maturity Yields No specific data analysis was provided, only relevant charts were presented to show the yield trends of 1 - year and 3 - year urban investment bonds and the yield situations of urban investment and industrial bonds at the end of the period (May 9) [30][31]. 3.3.4 Credit Bond Credit Spreads No specific data analysis was provided, only relevant charts were presented to show the credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank ordinary bonds, secondary - capital bonds, and perpetual bonds on May 9 [35][38][41]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market Early Warning There were no entities with rating upgrades or downgrades during this period [6][48].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics in May 2025, focusing on the impact of trade wars, currency tariffs, and monetary policy on the bond market [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Recovery**: The bond market is showing signs of recovery with rising yields across various bonds, particularly after the May Day holiday. There are opportunities for credit bonds to catch up as their yields are declining similarly to interest rates [2][13]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The outlook for future monetary policy is optimistic, with expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut. However, the timing for interest rate cuts remains uncertain. The current strategy should be cautious, focusing on the short end of the yield curve if it continues to decline [1][4][8]. - **Liquidity Trends**: Liquidity is stabilizing, with a notable decrease in the central price of funds since early April. The net issuance of government bonds in May is expected to be historically high, contributing to balanced liquidity [1][9][11]. - **Impact of Policy Measures**: The combination of broad fiscal measures and RRR cuts is expected to influence the bond market positively. However, the lack of clear interest rate cut expectations limits the pricing impact of RRR cuts [5][6][10]. - **Credit Bond Market**: There is a cautious but positive outlook for the credit bond market, with potential for a rebound in yields. The market is expected to see some recovery, particularly in medium-duration credit strategies [12][22]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The bond market is facing challenges in breaking out of its current stagnation, with previous pricing already reflecting some positive factors. The lack of clear interest rate cut expectations makes it difficult to generate new pricing increments [6][10]. - **Investment Strategies**: In the current market environment, medium-duration strategies (3-4 years) are favored due to better yield protection and compression potential. The performance of secondary capital bonds has been strong, indicating a recovery in liquidity [16][15]. - **Long-term Bonds**: The performance of ultra-long bonds has been mixed, with some signs of recovery but still facing pressure from yield curve dynamics. The absolute yield levels are at historical lows, indicating limited room for significant declines [14][19]. - **Future Meetings**: Upcoming meetings of financial regulatory bodies are expected to discuss the implementation of counter-cyclical policies, including potential RRR cuts and structural monetary policy adjustments [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the bond market's current state and future outlook.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The credit market has been affected by multiple factors, including the Zhonghang Industrial Finance event, MLF net injection, and the Politburo meeting. The short - term debt repayment risk of Zhonghang Industrial Finance is generally controllable, but there are valuation fluctuations in the secondary market. The issuance of credit bonds has increased month - on - month, and the issuance interest rates have mostly declined. The trading of medium - and short - duration bonds is active, while the trading of long - duration bonds has declined [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit Hotspot: Zhonghang Industrial Finance Event Review - **Event Timeline**: In March - April 2025, Zhonghang Industrial Finance announced stock delisting plans, bond suspension, and off - exchange debt repayment arrangements. Due to the failure of the delisting proposal, the bonds resumed trading on April 24. As of April 2, the company had 24 outstanding bonds with a total scale of 27.27 billion yuan and 700 million US dollars, and the concentrated repayment pressure was controllable [12][13][14]. - **Reasons for Bond Suspension**: Operationally, Zhonghang Trust's real - estate project risk exposure and Zhonghang Industrial Finance's weak operating performance in recent years; off - exchange debt repayment can avoid excessive public opinion fermentation and retain flexibility. However, it also brings compliance pressure and uncertainty to investors [19][21][23]. - **Event Impact**: The short - term bond repayment risk is controllable considering the issuer's nature, repayment willingness, and relatively sufficient monetary funds. There have been valuation fluctuations in Zhonghang Industrial Finance, Zhonghang Leasing, and trust - related bonds in the secondary market. Some institutions with stable liability ends can consider the risk - premium opportunities, while others should evaluate the creditworthiness of trust - related bonds based on fundamentals [24][25]. Market Review: MLF Net Injection and Politburo Meeting, Most Medium - and Long - Term Credit Bonds Up - From April 18 to April 25, 2025, 600 billion yuan of MLF was over - renewed, and the Politburo meeting content was in line with expectations. Credit bond yields mostly increased, with medium - and long - term yields rising about 5BP. The buying pressure continued to strengthen, with wealth management products net buying 15.2 billion yuan and funds net buying 41 billion yuan. Industry spreads and provincial urban investment bond spreads mostly increased slightly [2][32]. Primary Issuance: Credit Bond Issuance Increased Month - on - Month, and Issuance Interest Rates Mostly Declined - From April 21 to April 25, 2025, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 503.3 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18%, and financial credit bonds issued a total of 119.8 billion yuan, a significant month - on - month increase of 59%. The average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes (except for AAA - rated) and corporate bonds (except for AA - rated) declined [3][57]. Secondary Trading: Medium - and Short - Duration Trading Active, Long - Duration Trading Declined - Active trading entities are mainly medium - and high - grade, medium - and short - term, and central and state - owned enterprises. For urban investment bonds, active trading entities are from strong economic provinces or high - spread areas; for real - estate bonds and private enterprise bonds, active trading entities are mostly AAA - rated with medium - and short - term maturities. The trading of long - duration bonds has declined [4][67].