Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]

Group 1: Economic Demand and Investment - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [26] - Fixed asset investment showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in May, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% [53] - Infrastructure investment rebounded with a month-on-month growth of 0.9%, while manufacturing investment accelerated with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [60] Group 2: Industrial Production and Employment - The industrial added value in May increased by 0.4% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 0.2% [66] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [81] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities also fell to 5.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [83] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to alleviate external demand pressure, allowing for a better internal demand recovery [88] - The GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 5.0%, despite anticipated pressure on exports in the second half of the year [88] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact export performance [89]

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Group 1: Inflation Data - Core CPI continues to rise, indicating steady internal demand recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Overall CPI in May decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Non-food CPI remained stable year-on-year, reflecting a steady performance in consumer prices[7] Group 2: Trade Data - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which was below the market expectation of 6.2% and the previous month's 8.1%[14] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% in May, a decline that widened by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, despite expectations of recovery due to tariff reductions[14][15] - Exports to Japan and ASEAN countries grew by 6.2% and 14.8% respectively, indicating relative stability in trade with other regions[14] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Signs of weakening consumer momentum are evident, with some policy-supported categories showing price stagnation or decline[6][8] - High inventory levels among U.S. wholesalers and retailers suggest a lack of urgency to replenish stock, impacting China's export dynamics[15] - The need for counter-cyclical policies is emphasized to stabilize expectations and ensure steady economic performance amid external uncertainties[29]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight acceleration from the previous month [1][2] - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI decline, with energy prices dropping by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease [2] - The CPI has maintained a year-on-year decline of -0.1% for three consecutive months, reflecting weak overall price levels, while core CPI remains above 0.5%, suggesting a gradual recovery in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies [1][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to international factors, such as falling crude oil prices, which have led to price decreases in related domestic industries, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors are showing marginal improvements, with prices for consumer goods and high-end manufacturing products experiencing upward trends, indicating a potential for gradual recovery in certain industries [5][6]

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 8 日 PMI 修复，内需仍需重视 5 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业 PMI 边际回暖，内需相对而言仍需后续政策支持。 相关研究报告 《市场策略更新》20250601 《美国关税政策面临法律挑战》20250530 《策略点评》20250530 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 固定收益 证券分析师：肖成哲 (8610)66229354 chengzhe.xiao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060005 ◼ 制造业 PMI 数据在枯荣线下边际回暖，中国国家统计局 5 月 31 日公布， 5 月份，中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分 点。"抢出口"仍在持续，但边际有所放缓；出厂价格、产成品库存、主要 原材料购进价格、供应商配送时间分项指数下降，其余分项较上月有所回 升。 ◼ 分项而言，内需相对外需仍有所不足。PMI 分项中新订单增长相较新出 口订单增长仍有所不足。5 月制造业新出口订单上行 2.8 个百分点至 47.5%，但 5 月制造业新订单仅上涨 ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold will experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are expected to trend upwards [1][13]. - Uncertainties in geopolitical negotiations, such as those involving the US and Iran, are contributing to the rebound in oil prices from their lows [13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand - New home sales, second-hand home sales, and passenger car sales have all declined, while the average monthly sales price of home appliances has shown a mixed trend with more increases than decreases year-on-year [3]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel and spending increased by 5.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with box office revenue reaching 460 million yuan, a 33.3% increase [4]. Group 3: External Demand - Export growth has generally slowed, with June showing a decline in high-frequency export indicators and shipping rates [6]. - Container arrivals from China to the US have shifted from an increase to a decrease, indicating reduced transshipment activity [7]. - South Korea's exports fell in May, particularly in steel and petroleum products [8]. Group 4: Production - Demand for steel is weak due to the off-season, leading to a decrease in production rates and prices [10]. - As summer approaches, coal and electricity demand may increase, although recent weather conditions have led to a temporary decline in coal consumption [11]. Group 5: Price Trends - Prices for major commodities have generally rebounded, while domestic prices for steel, glass, coal, and cement continue to decline [12]. - The article notes that the market's concerns over copper tariffs are supporting copper prices as they trend upwards [13].

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50 [2][10] - The new export index is low, but domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] - The service sector PMI also saw a slight increase, driven by improvements in life services, particularly during the "May Day" holiday [40][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, with production and new orders indices increasing by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion line, while the new orders index remains in contraction territory, indicating a disparity between production acceleration and weak demand [2][10] - Industries with strong domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, showed better performance, with PMIs rising by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [21][24] New Orders and Exports - The internal demand orders index rose above the expansion line to 50.1%, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating a divergence in recovery between domestic and export orders [3][24] - The average value of new export orders over April and May remains lower than in March, suggesting ongoing pressure on exports [3][24] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [67][29] - Despite the decline in construction, civil engineering activities are accelerating, with the civil engineering PMI rising to 62.3% [29][84] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, supported by active consumer spending during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, with ongoing monitoring of fiscal policies' support for domestic demand [45][45] - The focus will be on the potential for fiscal measures to bolster service consumption and infrastructure investment, which are expected to enhance domestic demand support [45][45]

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing sales growth rate continues to narrow, while second-hand housing prices rise but sales decline [1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, while wholesale sales have increased; the operating rate of semi-steel tires remains stable [1] - The tourism market shows marginal improvement, with hotel occupancy rates and revenue per available room increasing [1] Group 2: External Demand - Direct exports to the U.S. have rebounded, with container booking volumes from China to U.S. ports showing year-on-year growth [2][3] - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on European goods, which may benefit China's exports to Europe, particularly in the machinery sector [4] Group 3: Production - Weak terminal construction demand due to increased rainfall in southern regions, leading to a decline in steel prices and production [5] - Prices for PTA, polyester chips, and POY have continued to rise due to maintenance and rising oil prices, although inventory levels have slightly increased [6] Group 4: Prices - Gold prices have rebounded, while copper and crude oil prices are fluctuating within a range; domestic chemical products continue to rise, and steel prices have decreased [7] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies have supported gold prices, despite OPEC+ production increases [8] Group 5: Future Focus - Attention is directed towards corporate profit data and PMI data for further insights into economic conditions [9]