Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic circulation as a key focus, similar to last year, but with significant differences in expectations and pricing for domestic and foreign demand stocks [1][12] - There is a strong performance expectation for overseas exposure stocks, but the difficulty in further valuation increases is acknowledged; meanwhile, domestic demand stocks have potential for significant valuation elasticity if they exceed expectations [1][12] - The market is currently viewed as an important window for positioning in the spring market, with expectations for large-cap growth driven by industry trends and benefiting from insurance capital allocations [2][13] Group 2 - The market is expected to enter a new wave of trends as the underlying logic of the bull market remains intact, driven by structural trends and capital market reforms [3][14] - A-shares are still in an upward channel, with a transition from policy-driven momentum to profit-driven momentum anticipated, supported by recovering prices and domestic demand [4][15] - The upcoming policies are expected to create a favorable environment for risk assets, with a focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and consumer services [5][16] Group 3 - The cross-year market is likely to see a rotation of sectors, with a focus on technology and advanced manufacturing, while defensive and consumer sectors may also be considered in the short term [7][17] - The economic gears are expected to continue moving forward despite fluctuations in market expectations, with a focus on fundamental changes rather than price volatility [8][18] - The market structure is anticipated to evolve from a tech-dominated landscape to a more balanced bull market across various sectors, driven by policy support for growth and structural transformation [6][19]

Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 内需依然偏弱，关注外需波动 11 月 CPI 同比增速符合万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略低于万得一致预期； CPI 同比上行主要靠食品价格，特别是鲜菜价格的拉动，服务价格环比出现 季节性回落；PPI 环比增速连续两个月增长，但 11 月同比降幅较 10 月小幅 扩大，主要受输入性因素影响。 相关研究报告 《政治局会议点评》20251209 《稳中求进、提质增效》20251208 《全面布局"十五五"》20251208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 11 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%，同比增长 0.7%，核心 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，服 务价格同比增长 0.7%，消费品价格同比增长 0.6%。 ...

Group 1: Export Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding the expected 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1%[1] - The month-on-month export growth in November was 8.2%, higher than the historical average of 5.6% over the past five years[1] - Cumulative exports from January to November showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, slightly up from 5.3% in October[1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Exports in the machinery and electronics sector grew by 7.9% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 4.7 percentage points to overall export growth[2] - The "three major machinery and electronics" products (cars, ships, integrated circuits) saw export growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - Labor-intensive products experienced a decline of -4.3% year-on-year from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth by 0.7 percentage points[2] Group 3: Regional Insights - Exports to emerging markets increased by 11.1% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 5.2 percentage points to overall export growth[3] - Exports to the United States fell by -18.9% year-on-year, dragging down overall export growth by 2.8 percentage points[3] - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5%[3] Group 4: Future Outlook - December's export growth may face adjustment pressure due to a higher base, with projections suggesting a year-on-year decline to the 3%-4% range[4] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with potential support from the electronics supply chain for continued growth[4] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to stabilize external demand and support resilient export performance over the next six months to a year[4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in November exports is primarily attributed to the dissipation of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand [2][7][30] Export Analysis - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year (YoY) in USD terms, a notable recovery from a decline of 1.1% in October, driven by factors such as increased working days and the reduction of "production rush" effects [2][6][7] - The increase in working days in November (up by 2 days YoY) and the tapering off of the "production rush" phenomenon contributed significantly to the export rebound [2][7] - Exports to emerging economies showed a marked recovery in November, with exports to Africa and Latin America rising by 17.1 percentage points (pct) and 12.8 pct respectively, despite no significant improvement in demand from these regions [2][11] - The export of goods such as food, steel, and auto parts, which had seen significant declines in October, rebounded in November, with respective increases of 34 pct, 18.7 pct, and 13.6 pct [3][18] Import Analysis - Imports also showed a recovery in November, with a YoY increase of 1.9%, up by 0.9 pct from the previous month [3][25] - Processing trade imports surged by 9.2 pct to 13.9%, exceeding previous growth levels, indicating a rebound in supply conditions [3][25] - Major commodities like crude oil and electromechanical products saw improved import growth rates, with crude oil imports increasing by 8.4 pct to 8.1% [3][25][51] Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year [4][30] - The potential for improved exports to the U.S. is bolstered by the easing of tariffs and the likelihood of inventory replenishment in the U.S. market [4][30] - Continued industrialization in emerging markets is anticipated to drive demand for imported production materials, further supporting China's export of intermediate and capital goods [4][30] Regular Tracking - In November, both exports and imports showed signs of recovery, with notable increases in consumer electronics and light industrial products [5][37] - Capital goods exports exhibited mixed results, with intermediate goods like auto parts and integrated circuits showing growth [5][40] - Exports to non-U.S. developed economies and emerging markets increased, while exports to the U.S. declined [5][47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement with synchronized recovery in production and demand and accelerated destocking, but the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may still restrict corporate profit repair, and the sustainability of external demand contribution remains to be verified. The decline in service - sector sentiment indicates that the resilience of domestic demand also needs to be observed. The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct from the previous month, still seasonally weak but with marginal improvement. Production, procurement, and import indices on the supply - side increased, and new order and backlog order indices on the demand - side rose. Inventory destocking accelerated, and some predictive indicators showed improved supply - demand relationships [5][9]. - **External demand contribution**: The new export order index rose 1.7 pct to 47.6%, and the new export order indices of four major manufacturing industries and large, medium, and small enterprises all increased. However, the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may pressure corporate profit repair [9]. - **Enterprise size and industry differences**: Small and medium - sized enterprises' sentiment improved, especially small enterprises which rose 2 pct to a nearly 6 - month high of 49.1%, while large enterprises' sentiment declined 0.6 pct to 49.3%. High - tech manufacturing with a high proportion of small and medium - sized enterprises remained in expansion, while the sentiment of equipment and consumer goods manufacturing declined, and their production sides may be stronger than the demand sides [9]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November 2025, down 0.6 pct from the previous month, the first time below the boom - bust line since 2023. The service - sector sentiment was dragged down by factors such as the fading holiday effect, while the construction industry's sentiment improved [5][9]. - **Sub - item structure**: The inventory and new order indices of non - manufacturing declined, while the new export order index rose. The sales price and input price indices increased for two consecutive months. In the service sector, the financial industry and some new - energy industries showed good performance. The construction industry's business activity index increased, possibly boosted by financial activities and policy support [9]. Investment Suggestion The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2][9].

Revenue Insights - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a growth rate improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to January to September[1] - In October, the general public budget revenue recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, up from 2.6% in September, driven primarily by tax revenue which grew by 8.6%[1][2] - Personal income tax showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 27.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 16.7%, making it a core driver of tax revenue growth[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure from January to October 2025 totaled 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8%, marking the first negative growth of the year, attributed to earlier fiscal spending in the first half of the year and constraints from the annual deficit requirements[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant decline of 26.7%, indicating reduced support for traditional fiscal investment methods[5] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Non-tax revenue experienced a sharp decline of 33.0%, indicating an ongoing improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue[1] - Export tax rebates fell by 14.8%, suggesting a potential weakening in external demand, consistent with the downward trend in October's export growth[2] - The growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty normalized to 17.5%, down from a previous 342.4%, indicating a return to typical market conditions[2] Fiscal Policy Implications - The tightening of fiscal expenditure in October may necessitate an increase in the deficit ratio next year to support economic continuity, especially with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Local government land transfer revenue dropped by 27.3%, a significant increase in decline compared to the previous month's -1.0%, impacting government fund expenditures which fell by 38.2%[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of expanding domestic demand to drive China's economic recovery and achieve high-quality development, while also addressing the resilience of foreign trade amidst external shocks and the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets in a global context [2][5][12]. Economic Outlook - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, as all economic leading indicators are showing upward trends for the first time in three years, indicating potential improvement in the economic cycle [5][6]. - The GDP growth target of 5% for the year is considered achievable based on the economic data from the first three quarters [5]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Key measures to boost domestic consumption include the deployment of policy financial tools and the release of local debt limits, alongside efforts to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence in the economy [7]. - Confidence in long-term economic transformation and mid-term price recovery is crucial, with a focus on observable price signals such as stock and housing prices [7]. Foreign Trade and External Demand - China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, but external demand is expected to face short-term adjustment pressures, with a moderate recovery anticipated in the first half of the following year [8]. - Eleven out of twenty leading indicators suggest a potential recovery in external demand, although caution is advised due to the risk of demand overextension [8]. Industry Policy and New Economic Growth - The article outlines a clear framework for modernizing the industrial system, categorizing industries into traditional, emerging, and future sectors, each requiring tailored policy support [9][10]. - Traditional industries will focus on quality improvement and efficiency, while emerging industries will see a shift from subsidies to market-oriented support [10][11]. Investment Strategy - The investment landscape suggests a shift from bonds to equities, with a focus on dividend strategies across various industries, particularly those with low valuations and high dividend yields [5][12]. - The article highlights the ongoing strong momentum for gold, driven by non-traditional macro factors, and suggests a long-term bullish outlook on gold as global order remains unstable [12][14].

日本内阁府17日公布，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季 度以来再次出现负增长。分析人士指出，受困于内需与外需的双重压力，以及对华关系持续紧张，日本 经济正滑向更为复杂的境地。 数据显示，日本今年三季度实际GDP（剔除物价变动因素）比上一季度下降0.4%。日媒分析指出，国 内需求疲软和出口低迷是导致GDP下滑的主要原因。 自5月以来，受美国关税影响，日本出口连续4个月萎缩。尽管日美双方于7月份达成协议，将"对等关 税"税率设定为15%，但历史高位的关税水平仍然抑制了制造业的发展，对其出口依赖型经济构成严重 冲击。受此影响，三季度货物及服务贸易出口大幅下降，环比下降1.2%，拖累GDP增速0.2个百分点。 进口因内需疲软环比下降0.1%。 与此同时，内需方面，占日本经济总量过半的私人消费增速也显著放缓，增速从第二季度的0.4%放缓 至0.1%，这再次表明，由于生活成本高企导致实际工资停滞不前，日本家庭仍在削减可自由支配的支 出。 截至发稿，日经225指数跌破49000点关口，日内跌超1300点。 来源：经济日报 日本内阁府此前发布中期经济预测报告称，考虑到美国关税政策 ...

Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value grew by 4.9% year-on-year, while social retail sales increased by 2.9%, and fixed asset investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, marking the second-lowest growth since data collection began[7][10]. - The decline in fixed asset investment is primarily due to weakened internal demand, with private and public investment growth both decreasing[10]. Production and Manufacturing - The industrial production growth rate fell below 5% for the first time since September 2024, with a significant drop in export delivery value, which turned negative at -2.1%[10][11]. - The comprehensive PMI output index dropped to 50%, indicating the weakest performance in 2023[10]. Consumer Behavior - Despite a high base effect, social retail sales maintained positive growth, with a two-year compound growth rate slightly improving compared to September[10]. - Optional consumption faced increased pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% in October, particularly in automotive and home appliance sales[10]. Economic Outlook - The high base effect from last year suggests that October likely marks the low point for monthly growth in 2025[10]. - Future growth elasticity is expected to rely more on external demand, supported by a stable global manufacturing PMI and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[10][11]. Risks - External economic volatility remains a concern, particularly due to uncertainties in U.S. economic policies[10]. - The effectiveness of domestic policy measures to stabilize the economy is uncertain, especially in the context of ongoing manufacturing PMI contraction[10].