Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to continuously exert force and adapt as necessary to stabilize and stimulate economic growth, especially in light of recent economic indicators showing a slowdown [2][8][10] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in key economic indicators for July, including a 3.7% year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods, which is the lowest for the year [3][4] - Investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan in the first seven months, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, with infrastructure investment growing by 3.2% [4][6] Group 2 - The government is expected to implement new incremental policies, including timely budget increases, interest rate cuts, and measures to support the real estate sector and foreign trade enterprises [2][8][9] - The manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech industries, has shown resilience, with significant year-on-year growth in sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing (26.9%) and electronic materials (21.7%) [3][6] - The service sector's retail sales remained stable, with a 5.2% growth from January to July, indicating a sustained expansion in consumption [4][6] Group 3 - The government plans to enhance fiscal policies by accelerating the issuance of special bonds and improving the effectiveness of fiscal measures to stimulate economic activity [10][11] - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy while optimizing the structure of financial resource allocation to support innovation and advanced manufacturing [11][12] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods is a priority for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12]

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, requiring continued macro policy support to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote a stable and healthy economic development [1][2] Export and Consumption - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9% [1] - Social retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, down from 4.8% in June and 6.4% in May, with retail sales of goods increasing by 4.0%, lower than the previous value of 5.3% [1] - The consumption upgrade policy continues to show effects, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances (28.7%), furniture (20.6%), communication equipment (14.9%), and cultural office supplies (13.8%) [1] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Investment growth in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate showed a downward trend, decreasing by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 0.8% respectively [1] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 6.8% [2] - The producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [2] Policy Measures - Starting in August, the government will implement measures to expand consumption, including childcare subsidies and the exemption of certain fees for public kindergartens [3] - The government aims to accelerate infrastructure investment and improve the efficiency of fund utilization through the issuance of government bonds [3] Short-term Influences - July's economic data was affected by short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies [3] - The introduction of macroeconomic policies in August is expected to promote effective investment and release domestic demand potential [3]

8月15日，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办举行的新闻发 布会上表示，7月份宏观政策发力显效，国民经济克服外部环境复杂多变和国内极端天气等不利影响， 保持稳中有进发展态势，展现出较强韧性和活力。 国民经济稳中有进 "7月份国际环境复杂严峻，贸易保护主义、单边主义影响持续，国内部分地区出现高温、暴雨洪涝等极 端天气，对经济运行造成了短期冲击。"付凌晖强调，面对复杂局面，在党中央坚强领导下，各地区、 各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极的宏观政策，纵深推进国内统一大市场建设，生产需求 持续增长，就业物价总体稳定，新动能成长壮大，经济运行保持了稳中有进的发展态势。 从生产供给端来看，工业较快增长，7月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.7%，继续保持较快增长。产 业升级发展带动下，装备制造业增势较好，有力支撑工业增长。7月份规模以上装备制造业增加值同比 增加8.4%，明显快于规模以上工业增速。服务业增势较好，7月份服务业生产指数同比增长5.8%。暑期 旅游出行增多，带动相关服务业较快增长。7月份交通运输、仓储和邮政业生产指数同比增长5.5%，比 6月份加快0.4个百分点。 从消 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel and ore industry is not prominent, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The I2601 contract is recommended to focus on the 750 - 800 yuan/ton range, and consider going long lightly around 750 yuan/ton with a stop - loss. For the Spiral Coil 2510 contract, short - term long positions can be taken when it retraces to the key support level, while controlling the position and setting a stop - loss. The RB2510 contract has a resistance level of 3384 and a support level of 3150, and the hot - rolled coil has a support level of 3300 and a resistance level of 3550 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Conditions - This week, the steel and ore market first rose and then fell. The iron ore trend was stronger than that of finished products, and its high point was close to the previous high. The iron ore has completed the main contract roll - over [6]. - This week, the supply of steel increased. The supply of five major steel products was 871.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons or 0.3%. The total inventory was 1415.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40.61 tons or 2.95%. The weekly consumption was 831.02 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [15]. Demand Side - In the terminal market, the year - on - year decline rates of real estate investment and new construction have both widened, and the demand for steel in the real estate sector has continued to have a negative feedback. The manufacturing growth rate is 6.2% and the infrastructure investment growth rate is 3.2%, both lower than last month, indicating that the demand side remains weak. Overall, the downstream industries have not recovered [5]. Supply Side - Before the military parade activity's production restrictions, steel mills were highly motivated to start production. The daily hot - metal output this week was 2.4066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons. The inventory and daily consumption of imported sintered powder both increased, and there is still a profit in off - peak electricity for short - process steelmaking. Starting from August 16, steel mills will start production restrictions, and it is expected that steel production will decline until early September [5][17]. - The iron ore shipping volume has decreased week - on - week, especially the shipping volume from Australia. The supply of iron ore is expected to shrink. The continuous decline in iron ore shipping volume for two weeks means that the short - term pressure on iron ore arrival at ports is not significant. The port iron ore inventory has slightly increased, but the inventory contradiction is not prominent [5][24]. Important News - On August 13, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke purchase price for the sixth time. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charged wet - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the price of top - charged dry - quenched coke increased by 75 yuan/ton, with mainstream steel mills tendering on the 14th [12]. - From August 16 to early September, some steel enterprises in Tangshan will implement production restrictions, but the actual implementation effect remains to be observed [14]. - Nearly 30 cities have introduced 34 property market relaxation policies, including Guangzhou's plan to fully cancel the "four restrictions" and Beijing's cancellation of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics for July, highlighting a mixed performance in various economic indicators, with a notable rebound in exports while other sectors showed signs of decline. Overall, the cumulative growth rates from January to July remain stable. Group 1: Trade and Exports - In July, the total goods import and export volume reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Exports amounted to 2.31 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0%, while imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, increasing by 4.8% [1][3] - Despite a decrease in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, China's overall export resilience is evident, with significant growth in non-U.S. markets [3] - The rebound in imports is attributed to the U.S. lifting some export controls on high-tech products, with the largest increase in imports seen in high-tech categories such as aircraft engines and integrated circuits [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% but a month-on-month decline of 0.14%. Retail sales of goods grew by 4.0%, while catering revenue increased by only 1.1%, indicating cautious consumer spending [3][5] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted the consumption of key goods, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment rising by 28.7% year-on-year [5] - Cumulatively, from January to July, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%, while service retail sales increased by 5.2%, suggesting a steady recovery in consumption [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5][6] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%. However, real estate development investment saw a year-on-year decline of 12%, with the drop widening by 0.8 percentage points [5][6] - Factors contributing to the decline in investment growth include extreme weather conditions, complex external environments, and weakened investment momentum in traditional industries like real estate [6][7] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to address the complex international environment and domestic challenges, aiming to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [7][8] - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a continuous and flexible macro policy to effectively stimulate domestic demand and promote economic stability [8]

2025年1至7月 主要经济指标数据 国家统计局8月15日发布2025年7月份国 民经济运行情况。总的来看,7月份宏观 政策发力显效,国民经济克服外部环境 复杂多变和国内极端天气等不利影响, 保持稳中有进发展态势,展现出较强韧 性和活力。以下为1至7月主要经济指标 数据。 工业 5.3% 1至7月,全国规模以上工业增加值同比 增长6.3% 服务业 5 9% 1至7月,全国服务业生产指数同比增长 5.9% 消费 1至7月,社会消费品零售总额284238亿 元,同比增长4.8% 投资 288229亿元 -6% 1至7月,全国固定资产投资(不含农户) 288229亿元,同比增长1.6%;扣除房地 产开发投资,全国固定资产投资增长5.3% 进出口 256969亿元 3.5% 1至7月,货物进出口总额256969亿元, 同比增长3.5% 失业率 20% （责任编辑：孙丹） 284238亿元 4.8% （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： ...

Economic Overview - In July, the international environment was complex and severe, with extreme weather conditions impacting economic operations, yet key economic indicators remained stable overall [1][8] - The industrial production increased by 5.7% year-on-year in July, while the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year [1][3] Industrial Production - The industrial production showed a steady and relatively fast growth, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector performed well, with an increase of 8.4% in added value, and high-tech manufacturing saw a growth of 9.3%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [3] - The "two new" policies continued to show positive effects, with significant growth in specific industries such as shipbuilding and electric motor manufacturing, which grew by 29.7% and 15.9% respectively [3] Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with actual growth estimated between 4% to 5% after adjusting for price factors [3][4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than the overall investment growth rate, with aerospace and computer equipment manufacturing investments increasing by 33.9% and 16% respectively [4] Consumer Market - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points compared to June [6] - The sales of home appliances and communication devices saw substantial growth, with increases of 28.7% and 14.9% respectively [6] - Service retail maintained stability, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% from January to July, supported by active markets in sports events, movies, and cultural tourism [6] Future Outlook - The economic foundation remains stable with strong potential for growth, supported by effective macroeconomic policies and increased market demand [8][9] - The government plans to implement policies to lower credit costs for personal consumption and service industry loans, which is expected to stimulate consumption and promote service sector growth [9] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for China's economy by 0.8 percentage points, indicating increased international confidence in China's economic development [9]

装备制造业 同比增长 8.4% 增加值 7月份 服务业较快增长 ▲ d 7月份 全国服务业 同比增长 5.8% 生产指数 同比增长 5.9% 1-7月份 服务业商务活动指数为 50.0% 7月份 市场销售继续增长 ▲ 社会消费品零售总额 38780亿元 7月份 同比增长 3.7% 1-7月份 284238亿元 同比增长 4.8% 7 同比增长 5.2% 1-7月份 服务零售额 固定资产投资继续扩大 ▲ y （文章来源：新华财经） 游玩 8月15日国家统计局发布数据显示 7月份国民经济恢复向好 总的来看,7月份宏观政策发力显效,国民经济克服 外部环境复杂多变和国内极端天气等不利影响,保持 稳中有进发展态势,展现出较强韧性和活力。也要看 到,外部环境复杂严峻,经济运行依然面临不少风险 挑战。 工业生产较快增长 ▲ r 7月份 同比增长 5.7% 全国规模以上 工业增加值 环比增长 0.38% 同比增长 6.3% 1-7月份 全国固定资产投资 1-7月份 (不含农户) 288229亿元 ▲ 同比增长 1.6% 分领域看 制造业投资 房地产开发投资 基础设施投资 同比增长 24 同比增长 25 同比下降12.0% 货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund has raised its economic growth forecast for China by 0.8 percentage points for this year, indicating increasing confidence from the international community in China's economic development [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth Support Factors - Market demand is expanding, supported by the effectiveness of consumption-boosting initiatives and the continuous release of consumption potential [2]. - Despite facing high tariffs from certain countries, China's foreign trade entities are actively exploring diversified markets, leading to an increase in the quality and quantity of goods exports [2]. - New productive forces are developing positively, with various regions and departments promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [2]. - Continuous deepening of reform and opening-up is improving economic circulation and enhancing the resilience and vitality of foreign trade [2]. - The implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies this year has stimulated production demand and promoted stable economic growth [2].

今天（8月15日）上午，国务院新闻办召开新闻发布会，国家统计局公布了今年7月份经济数 据。相关负责人表示，7月份，我国加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大 市场建设，国民经济保持稳中有进发展态势，生产需求持续增长，就业物价总体稳定，新质生 产力培育壮大，高质量发展取得新成效。 具体来看，工业生产较快增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业发展较好。7月份，全国规模以上 工业增加值同比增长5.7%，环比增长0.38%。装备制造业增加值同比增长8.4%，高技术制造业 增加值增长9.3%，分别快于全部规模以上工业增加值2.7和3.6个百分点。 服务业较快增长，现代服务业增势良好。7月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.8%。 市场销售继续增长，服务零售增长较快。7月份，社会消费品零售总额38780亿元，同比增长 3.7%。 固定资产投资继续扩大，制造业投资增长较快。1-7月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户） 288229亿元，同比增长1.6%。 总的来看，7月份宏观政策发力显效，国民经济克服外部环境复杂多变和国内极端天气等不利 影响，保持稳中有进发展态势，展现出较强韧性和活力。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨江佩佩 SFC ...