1月6日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，PVC期货主力合约开盘报4788.00元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，PVC主力最高触及4910.00元，下方探低4785.00元，涨幅达2.52%。 目前来看，PVC行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于PVC后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 国投安信期货指出，检修规模减弱，市场供应环比回升。下游开工下滑，逢低补货为主；出口维持刚 需，整体需求低迷。生产企业去库，社会库存压力较大。短期关注陕西政策是否会对电石电价造成影 响，关注PVC何时供给实质性收缩，价格或有强有力上涨。 恒泰期货分析称，国内PVC供需基本面虽然略有改善，但是仍处于供大于求格局，当前边际企业开工不 高，但是一体化企业开工高位，下游处于传统需求淡季，受房地产低迷影响，下游开工提低位，元旦假 期放假企业仍较多，因此需求继续走低，基本面看供需压力犹存。但宏观政策为PVC市场注入信心，深 入整治"内卷式"竞争，以及对于二手房税率的调整均造成资金方面看多情绪，PVC期货盘面带动现货价 格同步走高。另外元旦期间地缘政治再起波澜，但其下游延伸以及对产品的影响仍然有待评估，节后首 个工 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2026 年 1 月 6 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上市场关注可能影响美联储政策和全球 市场走向的关键一周经济数据，美元持续走弱，地缘政治风险引发避险需 求，叠加国内产能天花板铺垫以及节后首日短期国内消费政策提振，铝继 续走强。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

五"开篇之年，未来或迎一系列关于促投资、扩内需、稳财政以及"反内卷"等政策，市场氛围偏暖将有助橡胶 估值支撑。 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——情绪偏暖烘托，胶价偏强整理，谨慎围护桩 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月5日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期宏观情绪偏暖带动商品整体表现较强，对于工业品有一定估值提振作用，上周出现品种分化与阶段调 整。橡胶系金融属性较强，尤其是RU在国内产区临近全面停割且仓单偏少情况下，或受估值"补涨"逻辑驱动 更显著，预期改善推动主力合约上涨，RU1-5价差维持平水波动，RU5-9价差走高。PMI数据显示12月国内制 造业转暖，下游需求预期升温。但橡胶整体基本面仍承压，天然橡胶干库连续累库，供给压力不减。汽车配 套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补贴和新能源补贴退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承 压；下游轮胎厂商和经销商库存压力较高，轮胎开工有所下滑， 交投情绪偏弱。重卡与工程机械受新旧置换 和对外出口提振，但长期固定资产投资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in January, with trading mainly within a range. The price movement is likely to be limited in both upward and downward directions in the short term [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Review: Thread Iron Ore Strong, Coking Coal and Coke Weak - **Spot Market**: In December, the prices of black commodities showed a divergent trend. Among finished products, rebar prices rose while hot-rolled coil prices fell, narrowing the spread between them. Among raw materials, scrap steel prices declined slightly, coking coal and coke prices weakened significantly (coking coal dropped 12.5%), and iron ore prices were strong, rising by $2.5 per ton [12]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of black futures first declined and then rebounded in a V-shaped pattern. Rebar was stronger than hot-rolled coil, and the spread between them decreased. Iron ore was significantly stronger than coking coal and coke in the main contracts. The overall commodity market also showed a divergent trend, with the non-ferrous metals sector being notably strong [15][19]. 02. Outlook: Entering the Inventory Accumulation Period, Focus on Inventory Increase - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and there were obvious internal differences within the Fed. The inflation in the US has declined, and the unemployment rate has risen. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching the highest level in 30 years [26]. - **Domestic Economy**: Consumption and imports and exports performed well, but the decline in investment widened. In 2025, from January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6% year-on-year. However, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [30]. - **Infrastructure Demand**: In November, the data for broad - based infrastructure investment was weak, with a year - on - year decline of 11.91%. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed measures to promote investment to stop falling and stabilize [35]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The real estate market has not stopped declining. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and other real estate indicators such as construction area and sales area also showed significant declines [37]. - **Manufacturing Demand**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returned to the expansion range, with the production index and new order index showing significant increases [45]. - **Import and Export Demand**: In 2025, from January to November, China's steel exports reached 107.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that export license management for some steel products would be implemented starting from January 1, 2026 [49]. - **Supply**: From January to November 2025, China's crude steel production was 891.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, and rebar production was 17.295 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [55]. - **Supply - Demand Deduction**: In December, the demand for rebar weakened month - on - month, but the production decline was greater, and inventory was smoothly depleted. In January, steel mills are expected to resume production, while demand will seasonally weaken, and rebar will enter the inventory accumulation period [57]. 03. Strategy: Maintain a Volatile Pattern, Trade within a Range - In December, steel prices first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, basically the same as at the end of November. The raw material prices showed a pattern of iron ore > steel > coking coal and coke. In January, the market may be in a policy vacuum period. The price of rebar is expected to have limited upward and downward space, and it is difficult to break away from the volatile pattern in the short term, so trading within a range is recommended [61][62].

"大宏观"视角下2026年宏观政策建议 在"十四五"规划圆满收官、"十五五"蓝图蓄势启幕的关键之年，2025年我国经济展现出强大韧性与发展 活力。面对世界经济复苏动力不足，地缘政治冲突多点频发，国际经贸规则体系深刻调整，全球产业链 供应链加速重构的复杂环境，我国国民经济运行稳中有进。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，我国经 济发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，同时也面临诸多风险挑战。要立足"大宏观"视角，通过强化稳定政策、 增长政策、结构政策之间的协调配合，进一步增强宏观政策取向一致性，提高宏观政策有效性，为推动 经济持续回升向好提供更有力的政策保障。 2025年宏观经济稳中有进 2025年，我国经济持续运行在合理区间，实现了总体平稳、稳中有进的良好态势。同时，重点领域和关 键环节改革开放迈出坚实步伐，风险防范化解工作成效显著，社会大局保持和谐稳定。 第一，经济增长速度在全球主要经济体中保持领先。2025年前三季度我国国内生产总值（GDP）增速为 5.2%，与潜在增速基本匹配，产出缺口趋近于零，相较于2024年的-0.3%明显收窄，国民经济运行稳中 有进。从全球横向对比看，中国经济增速在全球主要经济体中继续处于领 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | C 国贸易所设 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | है | DRO01 | 1.33 | 9.30 | DR007 | 1.98 | 29.47 | | 市 | GC001 | 1.86 | -17.50 | GC007 | 1.74 | -31.00 | | 市 | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | -0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 场 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | 0.18 | 5年期国债 | 1.63 | 1.33 | | 与 | 10年期国债 | 1.85 | -0.29 | 10年期美债 | 4.19 | 1.00 | | 流 | | | 同顾:2025年最后一个交易日。央行公开市场操作继续大幅的量并保持 | | | | 回顾:2025年最后一个交易日,央行公开市场操作继续大幅放量并保持 净投放,银行间市场周三资金面整体依 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格强势运行 关注宏观指引 投资咨询业务资格： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝偏强运行。宏观上市场关注可能影响美联储政策和全球 市场走向的关键一周经济数据，全球贸易战和美联储独立性的持续担忧风 险依旧存在。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has fluctuated recently, causing significant volatility in tin prices. Operation should be cautious, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and supply - side recovery [2]. Zinc - The lower support for zinc prices comes from the tightening domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upper pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and changes in refined zinc inventory [5]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but in the short term, prices are over - estimated irrationally, yet may remain strong due to high market speculation. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [7]. Nickel - Recently, the nickel market has been driven by Indonesia's tightening expectations, but the actual fundamentals are weak, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to potential price corrections [10]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel show slightly eased supply pressure and strengthened cost support, but demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to news from the ore end and downstream inventory replenishment [12]. Alumina - The market still faces severe oversupply pressure, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The key to a trend - based rebound lies in whether there are specific capacity control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. Aluminum - Strong macro and policy expectations support aluminum prices, but weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost is the main driving factor for the price of aluminum alloy. The market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand being weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain largely unchanged, with a slight increase in supply expected. The downstream demand has certain resilience but weakens in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and price volatility may intensify [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [17]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures are oscillating at a high level. In January, demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to production cuts and price adjustment acceptance [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.91%, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 142.86%. The import loss increased by 9.86%, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. Exchange inventories decreased [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased slightly by 0.09%, and the import loss decreased by 5.78%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and in November, exports increased significantly by 402.59%. Social inventories decreased [5]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.23%, and the import loss decreased by 46.83%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and in November, imports decreased by 3.90%. Social inventories increased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.77%, and the import profit increased by 175.35%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and in November, imports increased by 30.08%. Some inventories increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports increased by 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: Alumina prices remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97%. Some inventories increased [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.26%, the import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased, and demand weakened. Social inventories increased [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.67%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of regeneration and primary aluminum alloy increased, and some inventories decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.42%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.50%. Inventories decreased [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15%, and exports increased by 21.78%. Some inventories increased slightly [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type polysilicon prices increased slightly, and some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and net exports increased significantly. Inventories increased [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is navigating a complex internal and external environment, with the A-share market showing resilience, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points in Q4 2025, marking a nearly ten-year high and an annual increase of over 30% [2][10]. The outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement in the A-share market driven by high-quality development and supportive policies [2][10]. Group 1: Global Liquidity and Currency Dynamics - The reopening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has led to a marginal improvement in the global liquidity environment, with the US dollar index weakening significantly throughout the year [4][12]. - The RMB has shown a phase of strengthening, with the USD/RMB exchange rate breaking the 7.0 mark by year-end, reflecting market recognition of China's economic resilience and enhancing the attractiveness of domestic assets in global investment portfolios [4][12]. - The A-share market, characterized by structural opportunities and relatively low valuations, is likely to attract overseas incremental capital, particularly in technology companies with long-term growth prospects [4][12]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Inflation Trends - Domestic effective demand is gradually strengthening due to fiscal policies aimed at expanding effective investment, moderate monetary policy easing, and measures to promote large-scale and service consumption [5][13]. - The overall inflation level in 2025 is showing a low rebound, with core CPI growth maintaining above 1% since September 2025, and PPI growth stabilizing, indicating improvements in the domestic supply-demand structure [5][13]. - The moderate rise in prices is expected to enhance corporate pricing power and profitability, leading to a clearer recovery cycle for corporate profits in 2026, thus providing fundamental support for the A-share market [5][13]. Group 3: Capital Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - As the real estate market adjusts and the risk-free interest rate center declines, household funds are shifting from real estate and low-yield financial products to equity assets with greater appreciation potential [6][14]. - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms and improvements in investor protection mechanisms are accelerating this transition, indicating a stable and sustained influx of new capital into the A-share market [6][14]. - Institutional investors, including insurance funds, pension funds, and public funds, are showing a stronger willingness to enter the market, enhancing market effectiveness and stability [6][14]. Group 4: Technological Innovation and Market Opportunities - The continuous improvement of domestic technological capabilities is expected to create new market drivers, with significant advancements in AI, semiconductors, high-end manufacturing, commercial aerospace, and national defense industries in 2025 [7][15]. - Technological innovation is becoming the core force driving the structural market trends in A-shares, with expectations that it will continue to dominate market styles and capital flows in 2026 [7][15]. - While the long-term outlook for A-shares remains positive, potential risks from international trade environments and geopolitical uncertainties must be acknowledged, as they could impact market sentiment and valuations [7][15].