棉花：震荡偏强，注意市场情绪变化 20251228 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 12 月 26 日当周，ICE 棉花受美元走弱、中国棉花价格大幅上涨以及美棉周度出口数据改善影响 出现反弹，但是由于美棉的出口销售总体仍然一般，所以 ICE 棉花的上涨动能有限，目前来看仍然是低位 震荡行情。 本周国内棉花市场基本面并没有大的变化，郑棉期价走势受市场情绪影响更多一些，尤其是在突破 14300 以后。新棉刚上市三个多月，目前国内的棉花供应还是很充足的；下游的需求处于淡季，但是基于 2026 年继续有新增纺纱产能投产的预期，市场对 2025/26 年度全年的需求目前也不悲观；所以目前国内 棉花市场的供需矛盾并不突出，棉花价格在市场情绪的带动下震荡上行，一方面注意市场情绪的变化，另 一方面注意下游利润、配额外棉花进口利润等因素对价格上行动力的影响。至于市场关于 2026 年新疆棉 花种植面积的讨论，我们还是倾向于到春节后结合需求情况再去交易或者时点和驱动力上来说更合适。短 期来看预计郑棉期货维持震荡偏强的走势，但是上涨空间可能有限，注意现货基差的变化。 请务 ...

- The report discusses the construction and evaluation of various quantitative models and factors, including the Cinda-VIX and Cinda-SKEW indices, which are designed to reflect market volatility and skewness, respectively[6][61][62] - The Cinda-VIX index reflects the expected future volatility of the underlying asset as implied by option prices. It has a term structure that shows the expected volatility over different time horizons. As of December 26, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 16.35, 17.09, 24.97, and 20.60, respectively[62][63][64] - The Cinda-SKEW index captures the skewness in the implied volatility of options with different strike prices. It measures the market's perception of tail risk. As of December 26, 2025, the SKEW values for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 99.83, 100.24, 103.00, and 102.52, respectively[70][71][76] - The report also includes backtesting results for various hedging strategies using stock index futures. The strategies include continuous hedging and minimum discount hedging, applied to the CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices. The backtesting period is from July 22, 2022, to December 26, 2025[43][44][45] - For the CSI 500 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were -3.47%, -2.70%, and -1.99%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 3.78%, 4.68%, and 4.48%, and the maximum drawdowns were -11.51%, -9.16%, and -8.93%[46][47][49] - For the CSI 300 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were 0.26%, 0.59%, and 0.99%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 2.88%, 3.23%, and 3.00%, and the maximum drawdowns were -3.95%, -4.03%, and -4.06%[48][50][52] - For the SSE 50 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were 1.02%, 1.93%, and 1.55%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 2.95%, 3.35%, and 2.97%, and the maximum drawdowns were -4.22%, -3.76%, and -3.91%[53][54][56] - For the CSI 1000 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were -6.53%, -4.91%, and -4.47%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 4.73%, 5.74%, and 5.49%, and the maximum drawdowns were -14.01%, -12.63%, and -11.11%[57][58][60]

2025年12月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：市场情绪偏暖，支撑价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：持续磨底 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：多头情绪占优 | 13 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 13 | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 15 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,014.24 | 1.34% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 1,006.45 | 1.44% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 82, categorizing it as "overheated," suggesting a high level of investor optimism and potential market risks [5][8][20] - Key themes identified include liquid cooling technology, banking stocks, and brokerage firms, each showing distinct investment opportunities [5] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 82, indicating an "overheated" market, which may lead to resistance as historical trends suggest that scores above 70 can create market pressure [5][8] - A cautious approach is recommended as the market enters a consolidation phase, with support expected when sentiment drops below 30 [8] Sector Analysis Liquid Cooling Theme - Liquid cooling technology is gaining traction due to its efficiency and lower Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE), becoming a mainstream solution for data centers [5] - Major AI companies, including NVIDIA and Google, are adopting this technology, with Google increasing its TPU chip shipment target by 50% to 6 million units by 2026 [5] - Related stocks include Invec (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [5] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are highlighted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Banking Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [5] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds [5] - Key banking stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5] Brokerage Sector - The report discusses regulatory changes proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at enhancing the quality of development in the brokerage sector [5] - The focus is shifting from scale and speed to quality, with an emphasis on risk management and capital efficiency [5] - Notable brokerage firms mentioned include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [5]

五矿期货表示，整体看工业硅自身驱动属性不强，价格下跌过程中硅企出货意愿下降，近期焦煤期货反 弹，工业硅随之反弹修复。预计价格短期跟随波动运行。同时注意西北是否出现新的供给端扰动因素。 目前来看，工业硅行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于工业硅后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 建信期货分析称，供应端，月度产量预期36万吨左右，西南产区产量将至低点，北方产区开工较稳，远 月都以丰水期复产预期为主。需求侧，有机硅企业周度开工率反弹，集中大幅减产未见持续性；硅业分 会统计认为1月多晶硅预期排产出货规模将大幅下调至6-8万吨，若预期兑现将对工业硅形成显著利空 (仍待观察)。供需仍然呈现宽松格局，基本面难以提供上行驱动，盘面价格大幅反弹后也将面临仓单回 流卖压，反弹阻力边际递增。 12月25日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，工业硅期货主力合约开盘报8820.0元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，工业硅主力最高触及8865.0元，下方探低8690.0元，涨幅达0.45%附近。 铜冠金源期货指出，供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持88%的相对高位，西南地区枯水期开工率较弱，内 蒙和甘肃产量重心下移，供应 ...

Core Insights - The price of gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $4500 per ounce for the first time, driven by international market trends and increasing industrial demand for precious metals [2] - Silver, platinum, and palladium have seen even greater price increases recently, with silver prices rising nearly 50% in Q4 and surpassing $70 per ounce [2][4] - The strong performance of precious metals has exceeded many institutions' expectations, with gold prices hitting record highs over 40 times this year alone [2] Group 1: Factors Driving Precious Metal Prices - The significant rise in gold and other precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over the creditworthiness of the US dollar and market sentiment, rather than just traditional safe-haven and anti-inflation motives [2][3] - The expansion of US debt has made gold and other precious metals appear as safer assets, contributing to their rising prices [3] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Market Dynamics - The industrial demand for silver and platinum has been a key driver of their price increases, with silver being essential for the transition to a green economy, particularly in solar and electric vehicle sectors [4] - Platinum's future is also promising due to its use in catalysts, with new opportunities arising from the hydrogen energy sector [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current bullish trend in precious metals will depend on the continued resonance between market demand and investor sentiment [4] - Analysts caution that the volatility of precious metal prices may lead to rapid profit-taking by investors, potentially resulting in price corrections [4]

（原标题：金银铂钯齐涨 贵金属缘何连创新高？） 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 为何今年以来白银、铂金等品种的涨幅更大？业内人士分析称，从需求侧来看，上述贵金属的工业需求 持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。 世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越性能，白银正成为全球经济转型不可或缺的 关键金属之一。其中，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白 银需求构成支撑。 铂金的前景同样被看好。在工业领域，铂金主要用于生产 ...

贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 受国际市场带动，以人民币计价的黄金价格续创新高。24日，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格盘中一度涨 至每克1017元，金饰报价在23日突破每克1400元关口后继续上扬，24日周大福等金店的足金饰品报价达 每克1410元。 值得注意的是，金价大涨带动不少资金关注黄金市场的替代投资品，叠加工业需求持续增加，白银、铂 金、钯金等贵金属价格纷纷"后来居上"，近期涨势远超黄金。 数据显示，今年四季度以来，国际银价一路上行，涨幅近50%，12月23日首次突破每盎司70美元的历史 关口，24日继续冲高至每盎司72美元上方，而国际铂金、钯金最近一个月的涨幅也都超过30%。 从年内涨幅来看，国际现货白银、铂金价格上涨均超过140%，钯金上涨超100%，国际现货黄金价格年 内上涨超70%。 "贵金属市场的强势表现超出不少机构预期。黄金价格今年40多次创历史新高，已超去年全年。白银价 格持续刷新纪录，铂金、钯金从 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The market style tends to exhibit defensive characteristics at the end of the year, with large-cap value stocks outperforming, while the small-cap style represented by the CSI 1000 faces pressure [1] - Institutional investors are likely to adopt a conservative investment approach due to year-end performance assessments, leading to a decrease in risk appetite [1] - As the market enters the dense disclosure period for annual earnings forecasts in January, earnings uncertainty becomes a key concern, prompting funds to flow towards more stable large-cap blue-chip stocks [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 219 billion yuan last week, with upcoming maturities including 4.575 billion yuan in reverse repos and 3 billion yuan in MLF [2] - Money market rates are declining, with short and long-term government bond yields also decreasing, while the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has expanded [2] - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market has increased, with a rise in financing balances and net purchases of financing funds amounting to 3.42 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Sector Preferences and Fund Flows - High net inflows were observed in the electronics, communications, and power equipment sectors, with significant net subscriptions for the A500 ETF [3] - The information technology ETF saw substantial net subscriptions, while the military industry ETF experienced notable redemptions [3] - The highest net subscription was for the Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF, while the highest net redemption was for the Fuguo CSI Military Leaders ETF [3] Group 4: Overseas Economic Indicators - In the U.S., the November non-farm payroll and CPI significantly fell below expectations, with the overall CPI rising 2.74% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.06% [3] - The core CPI also rose 2.63% year-on-year, below the consensus expectation of 3.03%, indicating inflation is nearing the Federal Reserve's target level [3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level since October 2021 [3]

| 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/12/19 | | 2025/12/15 | 至 | 2025/12/19 | | | 焦煤 | 1108.00 | 焦煤 | | | 9.00% | | | PTA | 4882.00 | PTA | | 5.81% | | | | 多晶硅 | 60245.00 | 多晶硅 | | 5.34% | | | | PVC | 4652.00 | PVC | | 4.00% | | | | 白银 | 15376.00 | 白银 | | 3.25% | | | | 铁矿石 | 780.00 | 铁矿石 | | 2.56% | | | | 玻璃 | 1041.00 | 玻璃 | | 2.46% | | | | 甲醇 | 2148.00 | 甲醇 | | 2.33% | | | 大宗商品 | 螺纹钢 | 3119.00 | 螺纹钢 | 1.93% | | | | | 黄金 | 979 ...