Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday procurement is basically over, with most sample production enterprises' inventories and the overall sample trading enterprises' inventories decreasing slightly. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined as some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Many all - steel tire enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10th, and semi - steel tire enterprises will mainly shut down from February 13th to February 15th, so the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline. [2] - The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,020 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 160 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 24,037, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,421. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 14,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong and from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 68.8 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.96 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 US dollars. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 612.38 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5 US dollars. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,270 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons per week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 73.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refining atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 78.86%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons. [2] - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers' cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 550 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders' cis - butadiene rubber is 6,030 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 750 tons. [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.74 percentage points. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000. [2] - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.19 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. Some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons (4.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.58 percentage points. [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons (3.78%). Recently, there were few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remained high. The pre - holiday procurement was basically over, some traders sold at a discount to recover funds, and new transactions decreased. [2]

港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2月11日，比亚迪股份(1211.HK)盘中再度涨超4%，并且录得5连升近乎抹平此前跌幅，股价重回百港元大关，总市值9035亿 港元。 消息上，花旗发表研究报告指出，估算比亚迪在中国国内市场的2026年1月底绝对库存量按月下降1.2%，至38.7万辆；然 而，由于当月零售销量可能未达预期(估算1月按月下降65%)，按当月零售销量计算的相对库存天数，据该行估算，应从 2025年12月底的1.2个月飙升至3.4个月。该行表示注意到，未来的关键变量将是比亚迪在2月底及3月初推出的新产品及其定 价点。该行予以"买入"评级，目标价为174港元。 值得一提的是，当地时间2月4日，根据德国联邦汽车运输管理局发布的数据，比亚迪1月份在德国售出2,629辆新车，远高于 去年同期的235辆，同比增长1018.7%，是特斯拉1,301辆注册量的两倍多。 ...

比亚迪股份(1211.HK)盘中再度涨超4%，并且录得5连升近乎抹平此前跌幅，股价重回百港元大关，总市值9035亿港元。 值得一提的是，当地时间2月4日，根据德国联邦汽车运输管理局发布的数据，比亚迪1月份在德国售出2,629辆新车，远高于去年同期的235辆，同比增长 1018.7%，是特斯拉1,301辆注册量的两倍多。 消息上，花旗发表研究报告指出，估算比亚迪在中国国内市场的2026年1月底绝对库存量按月下降1.2%，至38.7万辆；然而，由于当月零售销量可能未达预 期(估算1月按月下降65%)，按当月零售销量计算的相对库存天数，据该行估算，应从2025年12月底的1.2个月飙升至3.4个月。该行表示注意到，未来的关键 变量将是比亚迪在2月底及3月初推出的新产品及其定价点。该行予以"买入"评级，目标价为174港元。 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/11 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/02/0 4 801 2250 2235 2380 - 2300 2398 268 323 -29 -40 - 2026/02/0 5 801 2205 2215 2380 - 2300 2398 264 323 -25 -35 - 2026/02/0 6 801 2208 2210 2375 - 2300 2405 262 323 -9 -35 - 2026/02/0 9 801 2210 2218 2395 - 2300 2470 262 323 -7 -30 - 2026/02/1 0 801 2210 2205 2398 - 2315 2443 - - - -40 - 日度变化 0 0 -13 3 - 15 -27 - - - -10 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday procurement is almost over, with most sample production enterprises' inventory decreasing and sample trading enterprises' inventory slightly decreasing overall. It's expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, with some enterprises entering the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Multiple all - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly stop work from February 13 to February 15. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline in the short term. [2] - The short - term forecast for the br2604 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50; the position volume is 25,458, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,150. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 13,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,370. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week; in Shanghai, it is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week. [2] - Brent crude oil is 69.04 US dollars/barrel, up 0.99; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, down 4.75. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - WTI crude oil is 64.36 US dollars/barrel, up 0.81; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,475 yuan/ton, up 125. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, up 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.12%, up 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, down 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, down 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, up 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, up 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 33,100 tons, down 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, down 550 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,030 tons, down 750 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.286 million pieces, down 15,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.839 million pieces, up 8,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points week - on - week and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points week - on - week and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year. Some sample enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply has remained high. The pre - holiday procurement is almost over. Some traders have carried out promotional activities to recover funds. Downstream procurement has basically ended, with new transactions decreasing and mainly focusing on picking up goods. The inventory of production enterprises decreased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly overall. As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of the coking coal market is expected to tighten significantly as private coal mines in production areas gradually enter the state of shutdown and holiday. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to remain stable in the short term [2][6] - For coking coal, factors such as rising hot metal production and limited supply increase are positive, while factors like slowdown in procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negative [4] - For coke, rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate are positive factors, while factors such as squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - draft of restocking demand are negative [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to tighten, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 570,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises maintain normal production, but the overall market demand is average, and inventory pressure is emerging. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 180,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [6][7] Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [10] - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various port metallurgical cokes from different origins and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising or remaining unchanged [11] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 201,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 1.095 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week [25] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 824,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 692,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to last week [29]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, as the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts increase, terminals gradually shut down, PTA supply - demand accumulates, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the pre - holiday PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range [5]. - For MEG, due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol will still maintain an upward trend at the beginning of this week, and the arrival of foreign ships will be decentralized in the second half of the month. There is a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure will moderately improve. The import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down, and the supply stability in Iran should be monitored. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly consolidate in a range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 (Daily Tips) - PTA: On Friday, the negotiation for February middle - upper was at a discount of 60 - 85 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was a transaction for late February at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5015 - 5135 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis today is 05 - 72. The spot is 5090 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price. PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position has changed from short to long [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly from a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The spot market fluctuated widely. Today's spot transactions were at a discount of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and next - week's spot transactions were at a discount of 105 - 108 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It rebounded slightly due to plant news during the session, but the increase was limited. The spot is 3630 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position has decreased [8][9]. 3.3今日关注 (Today's Focus) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) 3.4.1 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PX supply - demand situation from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, and balance with polyester [12]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering total production, import, export, consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [13]. 3.4.3 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It details the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 1, 2025, to September 1, 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and various year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 (Summary of Influencing Factors) - **Likely Positive Factors**: The 700,000 - ton plant of Gulei Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from early March, expected to last until around the end of April [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA plant of Nengtou resumed operation last week [11]. 3.6价格相关 (Price - Related) - It includes historical price charts of PET bottle chips (market price, production margin, operating rate, inventory), PTA (month - to - month spread, basis), MEG (month - to - month spread, basis), and spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [16][17][18][20][23][26][29][32][36][39]. 3.7库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) - It shows the historical inventory data of PTA (factory inventory), MEG (port inventory), PET chips (factory inventory), and polyester products (DTY, FDY, short - fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [42][43][44][46]. 3.8聚酯上下游开工 (Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates) - **Upstream**: It includes the historical operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [53][54][56]. - **Downstream**: It shows the historical capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of chemical fiber textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [57][58]. 3.9利润情况 (Profit Situation) - It presents the historical profit data of PTA (processing fee), MEG (production margins of different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament (DTY, POY, FDY production margins) [59][60][61][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG exhibits a game between sentiment and fundamentals, with PG oscillating before the holiday. In the short - term, the internal and external market logics are differentiated, and the PG price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is advisable to pay attention to geopolitical situations and opportunistically short at high levels [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Can - Chemical Product Closing Price Monitoring - The report presents the closing prices, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various can - chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current value of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is 6,959 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.13%, a monthly decrease of 0.77%, and an annual decrease of 2.95%. The current value of LPG is 4,258 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly decrease of 0.75%, a monthly increase of 0.88%, and an annual decrease of 2.34% [3]. 3.2. LPG: Game between Sentiment and Fundamentals, PG Oscillates before the Holiday - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 548,800 tons. The civil gas commodity volume was 225,400 tons (-2.76%), the industrial gas was 191,700 tons (0.31%), and the ether - after carbon four was 179,800 tons (0.94%). The LPG arrival volume last week was 510,000 tons (2.63%). Domestic supply increased this week, but it is expected to decline next week [4]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. The winter heating demand is maintained, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving. However, the PDH device load will gradually decrease before the Spring Festival, and the propane chemical demand is expected to decline. The MTBE profit is in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending oil demand is slowing down, which restrains the civil gas price [4]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the LPG refinery inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the port inventory showed a trend of accumulating. Refineries successfully reduced inventory, while some ports withheld goods for sale [4]. - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China, South China, and Shandong are 234.80 yuan/ton, 644.80 yuan/ton, and 261.80 yuan/ton respectively. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by 6,902 lots [4]. - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 62.66%, 58.15%, and 36.54% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are -374 yuan/ton, 142 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 25 (0.41%), and the PG primary - secondary monthly spread is -303 yuan/ton (3.06%). The oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. - **Other Factors**: It is bullish. The US EIA oil and gas inventory continued to decline last week. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine regions are intensifying. The natural gas price has skyrocketed due to the cold wave, and the geopolitical situation has caused market panic [4]. 3.3. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures oscillated and declined, with a price fluctuation range of 4,110 - 4,360 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices oscillated sharply and trended downward, and international LPG prices oscillated. Domestic supply and demand both decreased, and the spread between ether - after carbon four and civil gas was inverted [6]. 3.4. LPG Futures Price, Monthly Spread, and Cross - Month Spread Overview - **Futures Price**: The current values of PG01 - PG12 contracts are between 4,082 - 4,516 yuan/ton. Compared with last week, most contracts decreased, and compared with last month, most contracts increased [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values and changes of various monthly spreads are presented. For example, the PG01 - PG02 spread is -134 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 47.25% and a monthly decrease of 494.12% [11]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: The current values and changes of various cross - month spreads are also presented. For example, the PG01 - PG03 spread is -49 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 800.00% and a monthly decrease of 141.18% [11]. 3.5. Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many refineries under Sinopec, PetroChina, Sinochem, and CNOOC have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and capacities [13]. - **Local Refineries**: Some local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China also have maintenance plans, and some of the end times are undetermined [13]. 3.6. International Spot Price - The report shows the price trends of CP propane, CP butane, MB propane, MB butane, FEI propane, and FEI butane, as well as the spreads between them [16][27][30]. 3.7. Other Related Data - The report also presents data on LPG consumption, production, import and export, port inventory, refinery inventory, and deep - processing profits, etc., and shows their trends over time [135][150][174][195].