尿素日报 | 2025-12-31 消息扰动情绪好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-30，尿素主力收盘1743元/吨（+8）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1690 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-33 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-53元/吨（-18）；江苏基差：-33元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润131元/吨（+0），出口利润822 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-12-30，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-30，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.11）。 尿素期现受出口消息影响情绪好转，虽市场紧急辟谣，但元旦前企业仍有收单需求，尿素现货市场采购情绪好转。 河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开 ...

| | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月30日 | 12月29日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 756.0 | 760.5 | -4.5 | -0.59% | | | 原木2603 | 776.0 | 776.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2605 | 787.5 | 785.0 | 2.5 | 0.32% | | | 01-03价差 | -20.0 | -15.5 | -4.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -31.5 | -24.5 | -7.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.0 | -36.0 | 0.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -16.0 | -20.5 | 4.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0. ...

新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/30 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/12/23 | 333.06 | 381.38 | -9.15 | 607.46 | -226.08 | 21.48 | 48.32 | | 2025/12/24 | 331.79 | 379.41 | -9.49 | 608.64 | -229.23 | 22.69 | 47.62 | | 2025/12/25 | 331.98 | 379.54 | -9.56 | 607.21 | -227.67 | - | 47.56 | | 2025/ ...

原木期货日报 免责声明 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月30日 曹剑兰 | 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月29日 | 12月26日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 760.5 | 766.0 | -5.5 | -0.72% | | | 原木2603 | 776.0 | 776.5 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 原木2605 | 785.0 | 787.0 | -2.0 | -0.25% | | | 01-03价差 | -15.5 | -10.5 | -5.0 | | | | 01-05价差 | -24.5 | -21.0 | -3.5 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.0 | -36.5 | 0.5 | | | | 01合约基差 | -20.5 | -26.0 | 5.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-30 部分区域现货降价成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-29，尿素主力收盘1735元/吨（+0）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1700 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差：-25 元/吨（-20）；河南基差：-35元/吨（-10）；江苏基差：-25元/吨（-10）；尿素生产利润131元/吨（-20），出口利润812 元/吨（-7）。 供应端：截至2025-12-29，企业产能利用率78.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为17.70 万吨（+3.90）。 需求端：截至2025-12-29，复合肥产能利用率37.75%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.07%（-0.48%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.11）。 尿素出厂价小幅降价吸单，部分主产区成交小幅好转。河北、河南环保预警再现，尿素企业及下游工业开工或继 续受抑制。供应端四季度气头检修12月开始，环保预警使得供应端有减量预期。需 ...

| 20019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月29日 | 12月26日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 760.5 | 766.0 | -5.5 | -0.72% | | | 原木2603 | 776.0 | 776.5 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 原木2605 | 785.0 | 787.0 | -2.0 | -0.25% | | | 01-03价差 | -15.5 | -10.5 | -5.0 | | | | 01-05价差 | -24.5 | -21.0 | -3.5 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.0 | -36.5 | 0.5 | | | | 01合约基差 | -20.5 | -26.0 | 5.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-30 乌克兰停⽕协议短期难以达成，化⼯供 需偏弱⽽预期较好，期价延续震荡 乌克兰停火协议仍未有实质性进展，而中国在加大对原油的进口量， 油价延续震荡整理态势。彭博报道，美国特朗普总统12约28日在海湖庄园 与泽连斯基总统会谈后表示，双方取得了"进展"。泽连斯基则称，他已 向特朗普寻求为期30至50年的安全保障。俄罗斯当前仍未对协议表态。Kp ler数据显示，中国12月原油进口将创记录新高；我国财政部表示将在 2026年继续扩大财政支出范围，需求向好的预期也短暂支撑了油价。 板块逻辑： 化工整体处于震荡格局。周一液体化工库存大都攀升，纯苯最为突 出。截至12月29日当周，江苏纯苯港口库存环比增9.89%，处于五年周期 的最高库存量；苯乙烯周度库存下滑0.36%，乙二醇周度继续小幅累库。 聚烯烃的产量同比依旧维持高位，尤其是PE和LLDPE，即使如此，在宏观 的利好带动下，化工都出现了企稳迹象。当前的主力05合约距离交割时间 较远，现货供需面的弱势尚不足以对期价有立竿见影的利空效果，01合约 即将退出历史舞台。中国原油 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

Group 1: Currency and Policy Changes - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed the 7 mark for the first time in 15 months on December 25, 2025, indicating a continuous appreciation since mid-October[1] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction in Q1 2026, alongside the introduction of more structural tools[1] Group 2: Real Estate and Sales Trends - The average weekly land transaction area in 100 cities increased by 102.8% month-on-month in December, although it remains at a five-year low with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities saw a month-on-month increase of 45.8%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.6%[3] - Second-hand home sales in 18 key cities increased by 13.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7%[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 78.4%, while the operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 2.4 percentage points to 66.1%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 1.6 percentage points to 29.5%, and cement dispatch rates rose by 0.3 percentage points to 31.6%[2] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Prices for copper, rebar, and coking coal have risen, with LME copper prices increasing by 2.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 33.8%[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2%[4] Group 5: Inventory and Logistics - Energy inventories, including coal at coastal power plants, decreased by 1.8% month-on-month, while U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 525,000 barrels to 1.687 billion barrels[6] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 20.6% month-on-month, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 1.7%[7]

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘缓和，油价重返基本面定价。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣 | 押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠 | 原油 | | | | 谨慎看空 | 加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和 | ★ | | | 成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油 | 产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | | 成本端承压，供给量上升，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，短线有所反弹， | 大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH | LPG | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 开工率升至 | 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下 | | | 降。 | | | | | | 现货由涨转跌，弱基差抑制反弹空间。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足， | LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期 | | ...