Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with general spot trading and stable basis. The release of cotton import quotas in 2026 is conducive to the convergence of internal and external price differences. The domestic peak season shows good performance, with increasing开机 and good digestion of cotton yarn finished - product inventory. The short - term main negative factor is the quota release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season and a decline in the sugar - making ratio are expected to reduce sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. The production and sales progress in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot price is stable. In the northwest, the procurement enthusiasm of merchants increases, while in Shandong, the trading volume is small. The cold - storage inventory decreases year - on - year, and the spot price is strongly supported. The trading logic focuses on the demand side, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber futures price fluctuated. The supply of natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased. The tire operating rate increased, and the inventory situation is different for different types of rubber. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Middle East situation and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures are in low - level fluctuations. The domestic pulp port inventory is still high, but the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has certain support, and the downstream demand is general. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Timber - The futures price is strong. The spot price in Taicang decreased. The external quotation increased, and the future arrival volume may be low. The downstream is gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume increased. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with strong spot prices, inventory accumulation in Qingdao, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bullish, with a spot price of 16,900 and a basis of 135. The inventory situation is mixed, with the exchange inventory showing little change and the Qingdao inventory increasing. The market is expected to be bearish due to the entry into a bearish season, despite bullish sentiment triggered by the Middle East situation [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - No specific daily hints are provided in the report [1] Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 full latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 13th. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [8] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently, while the Qingdao area inventory is accumulating. The import quantity has declined [14][17][20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have declined, but tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29] - **Basis**: The basis weakened on March 13th [35] Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to rising crude oil prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel 2605, it will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is bearish, with increasing production in March, rising domestic inventories, sufficient market supply, and weak demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy vehicle sectors. However, the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2605, it will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average. The fundamental situation is neutral, with stable spot prices, strong cost support, slightly decreasing inventories, and weak demand. The basis is bullish, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On March 13, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 136,930, down 190 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 17,320, down 445; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 14,190, down 25. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 141,350, up 400; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 144,750, up 400; 1 imported nickel was 137,950, up 500; nickel beans were 140,550, up 500. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 284,658, down 1,026; nickel warehouse receipts were 56,462, up 2,558; the total inventory was 341,120, up 1,532 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,180, down 58 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On March 13, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1,095.74 yuan per nickel point, up 3.22; the low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,675 yuan per ton, down 25 [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 14,258, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,307, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 18,081 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,328 yuan per ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The war in the Middle East may affect the short - term import rhythm of domestic soybean meal from some regions, and high freight rates increase the import cost. In the long run, the bumper harvest in South America still exerts pressure. The downstream demand for soybean meal is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal in the short term, with slow imports and high shipping costs. The overall demand for oils is in the off - season, and the inventory situation varies among different oils [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Supply**: In the short term, the import of soybean meal from some Middle Eastern regions faces support from rising freight rates. During the South American soybean harvest period, there will be a large supply pressure in the future. Trump may visit China from March to April, increasing the market's expectation of purchasing US soybeans [2] - **Demand**: The current demand from downstream feed mills is flat, the demand for pigs is weak, and spot transactions are poor. After the Spring Festival, the pig market is in the traditional off - season, and low pig prices suppress the expected increase in long - term feed consumption [2] - **Inventory**: China maintains a relatively high inventory pattern, with significant pressure on port raw materials and soybean meal finished product inventories [3] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: The supply of raw materials has increased as previously imported Australian and Canadian rapeseeds have arrived at ports, alleviating the supply of rapeseed meal at coastal oil mills. The Middle East event has affected the market's expectation of rising freight rates. In the long - term, the supply is still relatively tight compared to soybean meal [5] - **Demand**: As the start of aquaculture (usually from April to May) has not arrived, there is only a very small amount of demand for poultry feed substitution, and the overall demand is flat [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coastal granular rapeseed meal has rebounded slightly from the low point, and the overall inventory level is not high [7] 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Oil mills have low short - term operating rates and low crushing volumes, which alleviate the supply pressure of soybean oil to some extent. Overseas prices are rising, and the import cost is seriously inverted, resulting in low import pressure [41] - **Demand**: The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in bulk oil trading volume. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand in the later stage [42] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is slightly higher than the historical average, and the short - term inventory is relatively stable on a month - on - month basis. The strong short - term crude oil has driven up the prices of overseas biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil, and the domestic market has followed suit due to the increase in import costs [43] 3.3.2 Palm Oil - **Supply**: The March MPOB report shows that the supply has started to seasonally recover. However, due to the serious price inversion at home and abroad, near - month ship purchases are restricted, and the domestic supply increase is limited [45] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand for edible oil is weak. Palm oil has a price advantage and is used as a substitute for soybean oil [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory in the producing areas is high. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia exceeds expectations, and the inventory in the main producing countries remains at a high level [47] 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: The output has recovered as the crushing of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the supply shortage in the East and South China markets. The anti - dumping measures against Canada may lead to uncertainties in Canadian imports. The tense situation in the Middle East has also increased market concerns about rising freight rates [49] - **Demand**: It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand for oils is moderately weak [50] - **Inventory**: The inventory has shown a slowdown in the rate of decline from a low level, with a slight month - on - month increase, but it still remains relatively low [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral. There are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and the overall load in March is expected to decline. Although the domestic demand is under pressure, overseas demand may increase due to raw material shortages, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March. In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the market will mainly show a rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 450 yuan; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 205 yuan; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 735 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has significantly recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production is relatively low, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 81.4%, a 0.2% increase month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 82.9%, a 2.3% increase month - on - month; the ethylene method is 77.6%, a 4.6% decrease month - on - month. In March, some enterprises may start spring maintenance, and with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the ethylene - based production load is expected to further decline, and the overall load is expected to decline [11]. - **Demand**: The export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term effect of rush - exporting has declined. However, due to the lack of raw materials in Asia, the load reduction in Northeast Asia may bring export growth opportunities. The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 38%, a 5% increase month - on - month; the load of films is 60%, a 13% increase month - on - month; the load of profiles is 30%, a 2.6% increase month - on - month; the overall downstream load is 39.3%, a 3.5% increase month - on - month. The pre - sales volume of PVC last week was 1.09 million tons, a 200,000 - ton increase week - on - week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 377,000 tons, a 81,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the social inventory was 1.407 million tons, a 3,000 - ton increase week - on - week; the overall inventory was 1.784 million tons, a 78,000 - ton reduction week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally. It is expected that the overall load in March will decline, and overseas exports are expected to be supported by the shortage of ethylene raw materials in Northeast Asia, and the market is expected to turn to destocking in March [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report provides multiple charts, including the PVC term structure, the price of PVC East China SG - 5, the PVC spot basis, the 5 - 9 spread of PVC, the active contract positions and trading volume of PVC, and the total positions and trading volume of PVC, to show the market conditions of PVC futures and spot [15][18][21][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory is accelerating destocking, and the social inventory is stable. The report presents multiple charts to show the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide - based PVC, the social inventory of PVC, the total inventory of in - factory and social, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts [32][33][40]. - **Profit**: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC, the profit of ethylene - based PVC, and the profit of Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide [42]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: The price of calcium carbide has rebounded. The report shows the price, inventory, and start - up rate of calcium carbide through charts [48][51][53]. - **Other Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke has declined, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have rebounded. The report presents the market prices of semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene through charts [54][55]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Capacity and Production**: The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the production capacity put into operation in 2025, and the raw materials consumed by the production capacity put into operation in 2025 through charts and tables [59][61][63]. - **Start - up Rate**: The PVC start - up rate remains at a high level, the ethylene - based production load has begun to decline, and the calcium carbide - based production load has increased. The report presents the start - up rates of calcium carbide - based PVC, ethylene - based PVC, and overall PVC, as well as the weekly production volume of PVC through charts [66][70][71]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering. The report shows the start - up rates of PVC films, profiles, pipes, and the overall downstream through charts [75][77][80][81]. - **Export and Pre - sales**: The report shows the export volume of PVC, the export volume to India, and the pre - sales volume of PVC through charts [82][84][86]. - **Related Indicators**: The report also shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area through a chart [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For methanol, in the short - term, due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, international supply reduction expectations are prolonged, import volume may decline in March and April, and with downstream demand remaining stable, it may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, after geopolitical disturbances subside, it may correct, but if inventory reduction exceeds expectations, it has the basis for a stable rise [26]. - For plastics, in the short - term, rising oil prices and geopolitical conflicts affect supply, while demand is in a full - recovery stage, so it may oscillate at a high level with high uncertainty. In the long - term, demand and inventory situations are favorable, but terminal demand is weak and high production may limit the upside [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price - The price of MA2605 futures rose from 2586 yuan/ton on March 6th to 2805 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 8.47%. The MA basis rose from - 56 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, a rise of 135.71%. The price of methanol (Taicang) increased from 2530 yuan/ton to 2825 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.66%. The methanol CFR increased from 297.2 dollars/ton to 324.67 dollars/ton, a rise of 9.24% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic methanol operating rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 2.0138 million tons, a decrease of 3610 tons or 0.18% compared to the previous period. This week, the extended Zhongmei plant was under maintenance with a loss of 1.8 million tons/year of production capacity, and the Guangju New Material plant resumed production with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year. Next week, some plants are expected to resume production with a total capacity of 1.05 million tons/year, which may increase the operating rate [9]. Demand - As of March 12th, the olefin operating rate remained stable at 84.08%. The gross profit was - 810.33 yuan/ton, a 18.49% increase compared to the previous period. If the gross profit continues to rise, it may promote the resumption of olefin production [12]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the port inventory was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons or 9.05% compared to the previous period. The inland inventory was 523,200 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons or 5.13% compared to the previous period. The port inventory decreased significantly, and the inventory pressure was relieved [14]. Plastics Price - The price of L2605 futures rose from 7691 yuan/ton on March 6th to 8416 yuan/ton on March 13th, a rise of 9.43%. The L basis rose from - 261 yuan/ton to - 166 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.40%. The LLDPE price increased from 7430 yuan/ton to 8250 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.04%. The HDPE price increased from 7950 yuan/ton to 8450 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.29%. The LDPE price increased from 10400 yuan/ton to 10550 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.44% [2]. Supply - As of March 12th, the domestic plastic operating rate was 82.39%, a decrease of 4.52 percentage points compared to the previous period. The production was 683,200 tons, a decrease of 37,500 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous period. This week, some plants were under maintenance with a loss of about 1.11 million tons/year of production capacity, and some plants resumed production with a total capacity of about 450,000 tons/year. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [17]. Demand - As of March 12th, the downstream operating rate was 33.83%, an increase of 5.21 percentage points compared to the previous period. The recovery of packaging film and agricultural film is relatively fast, and the demand side provides stable support [21]. Inventory - As of March 11th, the social inventory was 662,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.56% compared to the previous period. The inventory of two major oil companies was 505,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons or 11.73% compared to the previous period. The inventory structure continues to diverge [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the absolute price and structure are greatly affected by conflicts, with high uncertainty. If the conflict persists, production cuts may gradually spread to the TA end; if the conflict ends, the valuation of TA itself is also expected to improve. In the context of high volatility, one can consider the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips [1]. - For MEG, in the case of the conflict continuing, the arrival of MEG is expected to decline rapidly. Coupled with the preventive load - reduction of some domestic devices, the short - term inventory removal speed will accelerate, while the long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, so short - term observation is recommended [8]. - For polyester staple fiber, the raw materials have strengthened significantly, and the downstream chasing sentiment is acceptable. The start - up is expected to continue to rise. The processing fee of staple fiber itself has been compressed to a relatively low level, but the load - increase is also continuing. The short - term driving force is not obvious. If the raw materials continue to be strong, production cuts may gradually increase. One can focus on the opportunity to expand processing fees on dips in the medium - to - long term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the PTA spot price fluctuated, the PX processing margin and PTA processing fee also changed. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2605(-9). The Yisheng New Materials with a capacity of 3.6 million tons reduced its load [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The near - end TA maintenance and load - increase coexisted, the start - up rate increased month - on - month, the polyester load continued to rise, the inventory accumulated month - on - month, the basis strengthened, and the spot processing fee weakened month - on - month. Some domestic PX devices reduced their loads, overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN slightly expanded, the disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened, and the US - Asia aromatics spread decreased month - on - month [1]. MEG - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the MEG price, profit, and load showed certain changes. The basis of MEG spot was around 05(-90). The Shaanxi Coal with a capacity of 1.8 million tons had some capacity under maintenance [8]. - **Industry Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based devices had both maintenance and load - reduction, coal - based devices had partial maintenance, the overall start - up rate declined, the arrival decreased but the port inventory still accumulated due to weak shipments. The expected arrival volume decreased this week, the basis strengthened significantly, and the benefits of coal - based and ethane - based production improved significantly [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: The spot price was around 8500, and the market basis was around 04 + 40. The near - end devices continued to restart, and the start - up rate rose to 84.6%. The production and sales during the holiday were weak but improved week - on - week, the inventory decreased month - on - month, and the spot processing fee shrank month - on - month [8]. - **Industry Situation**: On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end also increased, the raw material inventory increased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the benefits weakened month - on - month. After the raw materials strengthened significantly, the downstream chasing sentiment was acceptable, and the start - up was expected to continue to rise [8]. Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the prices of various types of natural rubber such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar Thai mixed rubber, etc. changed, and there were also changes in processing profits, spreads, etc. [8]. - **Industry Situation**: No overall industry situation description was provided in the text. Styrene and Related Products - **Market Data**: From March 6 to March 12, 2026, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, and related products changed, and the production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also showed different degrees of change [8]. - **Industry Situation**: No overall industry situation description was provided in the text.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区 has entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. The bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continue to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses are destocking, and the total inventory has a slight increase in accumulation. The arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber is showing a decreasing trend. The synthetic rubber is strengthening, and after the Spring Festival, tire enterprises resume production, increasing the buying of natural rubber, and the inventory accumulation rate has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period [2]. - The domestic tire enterprise operating rate has significantly rebounded week - on - week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle East still exists, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2]. - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 17,180 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,720 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, and the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber is 110 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143,610 lots, a decrease of 3,973 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 67,414 lots, a decrease of 41,472 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is 1,284 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is 1,049 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 120,540 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 49,795 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 17,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,050 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,045 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 17,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 3.05 million tons, and that of mixed rubber is 19.93 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 36.73%, and that of semi - steel tires is 65.9%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 5,968,000 pieces, an increase of 129,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 1,271,000 pieces, a decrease of 15,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is - 0.24%, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.82%, a decrease of 0.31%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is - 1.42%, and that of at - the - money put options is 31.03%, a decrease of 1.42% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decrease in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2]. - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory is 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory is 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao for natural rubber decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [2]. - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.33 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber continues to be strong due to the ongoing impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene end. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased significantly, while that of trading enterprises has increased slightly. With some device overhauls in late March, the spot - end inventory is expected to decline significantly. The tire enterprise's operating rate has rebounded significantly, but the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle - East region may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization. The synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 15,615 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 680 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 26,320, with a week - on - week increase of 1,603. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 21,420 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,070 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies has decreased. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 530 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 87.8 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.16 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) is 841.5 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 150 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 970 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) is 1,800 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of WTI crude oil is 83.45 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.32 dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 14,150 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 76.28%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.89 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 81.62%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 1,424 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 965 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 43,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 34,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,750 tons; the trader's inventory is 9,020 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.47 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 36.73 percentage points. The monthly production of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 45.79 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decrease in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 18.80% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The overall view is bearish. After a sharp rally this week, the price is oscillating at a high level. Due to overseas geopolitical conflicts, oil prices have soared, leading to a significant increase in shipping costs. As manganese ore has a high degree of external dependence, some market participants are worried about the stability of its subsequent shipments. Fundamentally, silicon - manganese is still in a state of oversupply. High production keeps manganese ore prices relatively firm in the short term. After the Spring Festival, downstream steel mills have gradually entered the resumption cycle. The procurement time of some northern steel mills is undetermined. After the Two Sessions, the demand for dual - silicon is expected to gradually recover, but it is still difficult to alleviate the oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - The monthly spread is bearish. As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of manganese silicon was - 46 yuan/ton, continuing to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The spot market is neutral. Factory quotes are cautious, downstream transactions are a bit slow, and the steel procurement in March has been slow to start, with a wait - and - see attitude. The 6517 is quoted in the range of 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, the 6014 is quoted at around 5450 yuan/ton, and the high - silicon silicon - manganese is quoted in the range of 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton. 6517 factories mainly engage in hedging, and retail transactions are average [3]. - Steel production is neutral. As of March 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 111200 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products increased to 797240 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly month - on - month [3]. - Inventory is bearish. As of March 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 249200 tons [3]. - Cost - profit is neutral. The manganese ore market remains firm, and the transaction center has gradually moved up. Comilog released its April offer at 5.25 US dollars/ton degree. Recently, the supply of South African manganese ore has been concentrated, and the market's sentiment of holding back supply and raising prices is prominent [3]. Ferrosilicon - The overall view is neutral. After a sharp rally this week, the price is oscillating at a high level. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are in a tight balance. The cost of semi - coke has decreased, but the increase in electricity cost makes the overall production cost relatively firm. The production of magnesium metal is at a high level. Due to the significant increase in the price of 72 ferrosilicon, the price difference between 75 and 72 ferrosilicon has narrowed significantly. Steel mills have started the March tender, and attention should be paid to the pricing. In the short term, the market price of ferrosilicon is stable with a slight upward trend. In February, the ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and attention should be paid to the recovery of new warehouse receipts. For unilateral trading, be cautious about chasing long positions after the rapid rally of the futures price, and consider taking profits gradually [4]. - The monthly spread is bearish. As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of ferrosilicon was - 50 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening month - on - month [4]. - The spot market is neutral. The 72 is priced at 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and the 75 is priced at 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton for cash natural lumps ex - factory. The price of 72 has increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. - Steel and magnesium metal demand is neutral. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills is 17800 tons. The production of magnesium metal remains at a high level, and the demand for 75 ferrosilicon is better than that for 72 [4]. - Inventory is bullish. As of March 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 39500 tons. After the concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts in February, attention should be paid to the recovery of subsequent warehouse receipts [4]. - Cost - profit is neutral. The price of semi - coke has decreased slightly, while the electricity cost has increased, making the overall production cost firm [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 4.954 million tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has increased to 3.595 million tons, higher than the same period last year; the inventory at Qinzhou Port has increased significantly to 1.354 million tons, significantly higher than the same period last year [11]. - At Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore is 2.289 million tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase; the inventory of Gabon ore is 336000 tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase but still far lower than the same period last year; the inventory of Australian ore is 537000 tons, continuing to increase and significantly higher than the same period last year [16]. Manganese Ore Port Price - At Tianjin Port, the price of Gabon lumps is 43.8 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps are 43 yuan/ton degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 38.7 yuan/ton degree. The manganese ore market remains firm, and the transaction center has gradually moved up. Recently, the supply of South African manganese ore has been concentrated, and the market's sentiment of holding back supply and raising prices is prominent. Comilog released its April offer at 5.25 US dollars/ton degree [19]. Manganese Silicon Production - As of March 6, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 195800 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia increased slightly to 14820 tons/day; the daily average production in Ningxia remained flat at 6035 tons/day; the daily average production in Yunnan increased to 700 tons/day; the daily average production in Guizhou increased to 1830 tons/day; the daily average production in Guangxi decreased to 1685 tons/day [30]. Manganese Silicon Demand - As of March 6, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 111200 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products increased to 797240 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased slightly month - on - month [35]. Manganese Silicon Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5850 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it is 5900 yuan/ton. A large steel group in Hebei had no silicon - manganese procurement plan in February due to recent maintenance and will resume normal procurement in March. In January, the factory purchased 17000 tons [43]. Chemical Coke Price - This week, the price of chemical coke remained stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1190, 1140, and 1140 yuan/ton respectively. Hebei has a plan to lower the price of coke, and attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the spot price [46]. Manganese Silicon Production Profit - The immediate profit of manganese silicon is low, and the point - to - point profit is in a loss [50]. Monthly Spread - As of March 6, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of manganese silicon was - 46 yuan/ton, continuing to oscillate at a low level [54]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is oscillating, and the basis has strengthened slightly. As of March 5, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 249200 tons [57]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Production - As of March 6, the weekly production was 96500 tons, showing a slight month - on - month decrease. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 4685 tons, in Qinghai was 1415 tons, in Ningxia was 3620 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2500 tons [70]. Ferrosilicon Demand - **Steel Mills**: The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 17800 tons, lower than the same period last year [75]. - **Magnesium Metal**: The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2470 US dollars/ton; the market price is 16750 yuan/ton, showing a slight month - on - month increase. The weekly production of magnesium metal is 20741 tons, at a high level in the same historical period. The market of magnesium ingots is running smoothly; the factory quotes of magnesium ingots remain unchanged at 16800 yuan/ton ex - factory including tax, and the actual transaction price is 16700 yuan. The market transactions are tepid, and the transactions maintain just - in - time procurement [79]. Ferrosilicon Export - As of March 5, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1135 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon is 1080 US dollars/ton, showing a slight month - on - month increase. In December, the import volume of ferrosilicon decreased slightly month - on - month, while the export volume increased month - on - month [87]. Ferrosilicon Raw Materials - As of March 5, the prices of mainstream semi - coke small materials decreased slightly. The current prices are 705 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 695 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale is 750 yuan/ton [96]. Ferrosilicon Production Profit - As of March 5, the point - to - point profit loss of ferrosilicon has narrowed significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are - 70, - 1, - 125, and - 449 yuan/ton respectively [108]. Monthly Spread - As of March 5, the 5 - 9 monthly spread of ferrosilicon was - 50 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening month - on - month [110]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is oscillating, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuates slightly. As of March 5, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 39500 tons. After the concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts in February, attention should be paid to the recovery of subsequent warehouse receipts [114]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon show different trends. There is an oversupply situation in most months, but the degree of oversupply varies. The production and consumption cumulative year - on - year growth rates also show different trends over time [116]. Ferrosilicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and short supply. The production and consumption cumulative year - on - year growth rates also change over time [117].