发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 1，期货市场：纯碱主力日内震荡，收十字星。成交量较昨日减 12.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日减 4142 手；日内最高 1195，最低 1174，收盘 1184，（较昨日结 算价）涨 6 元/吨，涨幅 0.51%。 2，现货市场：价格成交重心下移。企业装置大稳小动，个别产量提升，供 应有所增加。企业发货前期订单为主，库存震荡下行。下游需求表现一般，观望 情绪浓郁，低价刚需补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 116 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 进出口方面，11 月份国内纯碱出口量 18.94 万吨，环比-2.51 万吨。1-11 月累计出口量 196.12 万吨，较去年同期增加 92.25 万吨。11 月份国内纯碱进口 量在 0.025 万吨。1-11 月累计进口量为 2.17 万吨，较去年同期减少 94.67 万吨， 跌幅 97.76%。11 月份国内纯碱净出口 18.92 万吨；1-11 月累计净出口 193.95 万吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/25 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/1 8 801 2168 2120 2440 2485 2385 2525 251 318 0 20 - 2025/12/1 9 801 2157 2115 2435 2485 2385 2508 249 320 1 20 - 2025/12/2 2 801 2142 2115 2430 2485 2385 2500 248 320 11 20 - 2025/12/2 3 801 2137 2115 2420 2485 2355 2505 248 320 20 20 - 2025/12/2 4 801 2172 2135 2395 2485 2355 2470 - - - 15 - 日度变化 0 35 20 -25 0 0 -35 - - - -5 - 观点 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗 ...

机构：中金公司 评论 终端需求相对偏弱，3QFY26 表现符合公司预期。三季度以来运动鞋服市场表现相对较弱，3QFY26 滔 搏零售及批发业务总销售金额同比下滑高单位数，与公司此前预期一致。 公司近况 公司公布3QFY26（9 月至11 月）运营表现：零售及批发业务总销售金额同比下滑高单位数，直营门店 毛销售面积较8 月末减少1.3%。 分渠道看，季内零售渠道表现好于批发，其中线下渠道在低基数下环比1HFY26 略有改善。公司持续关 注店铺运营效率，期内继续关闭低效门店，关店速度环比放缓，11 月末直营门店毛销售面积同降 13.4%、较8 月底减少1.3%。线上渠道受基数影响，同比增速较1HFY26 有所放缓。 库存和折扣方面，公司动态把握新旧货品销售节奏，11 月末库存总额同比下降并维持良好周转效率。 研究员：杨润渤/林骥川/庄铭楷/陈婕/宋习缘 受线上渠道占比提升与促销环境影响，季内零售折扣继续同比加深，但加深幅度环比有所收窄。 12 月以来需求仍有波动，管理层维持审慎判断。受天气波动及节日错期影响，12 月以来终端表现继续 走弱，但零售折扣受益于低基数支持同比基本持平。管理层对短期环境保持审慎判断，更加 ...

下游以签订长单为主 现货成交持续清淡 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 现货方面：2025-12-23，LME铅现货升水为-46.89美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16875 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 50元/吨至45.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16900元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至16875元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化50元 /吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-23，沪铅主力合约开于16920元/吨，收于16995元/吨，较前一交易日变化75元/吨，全天交易日 成交44610手，较前一交易日变化-4634手，全天交易日持仓58086手，手较前一交易日变化-1500手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17025元/吨，最低点达到16915 ...

基本金属 2025年12月24日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价再创新高。 | | | | 基本面：昨日金银铜继续创历史新高，但在美 GDP 后曾"闪跌"，但在贝森特和哈赛特发言后收回。供应端， | | | 铜 | 铜矿紧张格局延续。平水铜贴水 220 元和 150 元左右成交。伦敦结构 28 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：建议逢低买入。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.11%，收于 22195 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-330 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2948.5 美元/吨。 | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境偏暖和海外供应扰动为价格提供支撑，但下游开工率维持低位，现货跟涨乏力贴水幅度 | | | | 增加，周二累库 0.4 万吨，预计铝价维持震荡整理。 | | ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，滔搏(06110)Q3销售金额跌高单，基本延续H1趋势，预计26 财年关店大幅减少，维持全年指引不变。NIKE与公司加强合作，回收老旧库存、减少促销力度，考虑 到短期终端零售仍面临压力，该行小幅下调公司盈利预测。该行预计FY2026/27/28公司归母净利润分别 为12.5/14.5/17.2亿元，给予FY2027PE15X，按照1港元=0.92人民币换算，对应目标价3.81港元/股，维 持"增持"评级。 国泰海通主要观点如下： Q3销售金额跌高单，基本延续H1趋势 FY26Q3(25.9-11)滔搏零售及批发总销售金额同比下降高单位数，跌幅环比Q2持平，去年同期下降中单 位数。零售表现好于批发，趋势与上半财年基本一致。受去年基数影响，线下零售略有改善、线上零售 略有放缓。由于线上渠道收入占比提升，零售折扣同比有所加深，但加深幅度环比收窄，主因线上线下 分化幅度收窄。本季度末库存同比下降，库龄结构环比改善。 本季度末公司直营门店毛销售面积环比下降1.3%，同比下降13.4%。Q3虽仍净关店但幅度较Q2放缓， 预计26财年关店数目相比25财年大幅减少。公司维持26财年指引 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/24 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/1 7 801 2130 2095 2440 2485 2385 2550 249 318 -5 25 - 2025/12/1 8 801 2168 2120 2440 2485 2385 2525 251 318 0 20 - 2025/12/1 9 801 2157 2115 2435 2485 2385 2508 249 320 1 20 - 2025/12/2 2 801 2142 2115 2430 2485 2385 2500 248 320 11 20 - 2025/12/2 3 801 2137 2115 2420 2485 2355 2505 - - - 20 - 日度变化 0 -5 0 -10 0 -30 5 - - - 0 - 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/1 6 801 2120 2075 2445 2475 2395 2555 245 317 5 25 - 2025/12/1 7 801 2130 2095 2440 2485 2385 2550 249 318 -5 25 - 2025/12/1 8 801 2168 2120 2440 2485 2385 2525 251 318 0 20 - 2025/12/1 9 801 2157 2115 2435 2485 2385 2508 249 320 1 20 - 2025/12/2 2 801 - - - 2485 2385 2500 - - - 20 - 日度变化 0 - - - 0 0 -8 - - - 0 - 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for 滔博 International Holdings Limited Company Overview - **Company**: 滔博 International Holdings Limited - **Industry**: Retail (Sportswear and Footwear) Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, 滔博's pre-tax sales decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, consistent with mid-term performance trends [4] - The demand for sports footwear and apparel remained weak, with seasonal product sales under pressure [4] - Retail business outperformed wholesale, but overall retail performance was slightly weaker compared to the first half of the fiscal year [5] - The company maintained a reasonable and controllable inventory level, with total inventory decreasing year-on-year [5] Market Dynamics - Increased promotional activities disrupted both online and offline market order, leading to heightened consumer price sensitivity [2] - The offline channel showed improvement from a low base, but overall retail performance was still slightly weaker than the first half of the fiscal year [5] - Nike's performance in the Greater China market faced challenges similar to those observed by 滔博, including low foot traffic and inventory pressures [2][5] Strategic Initiatives - 滔博 is optimizing its offline store network, with a significant reduction in the number of store closures expected compared to the previous year [2] - The company launched a new running brand concept store, Echoes, and collaborated with Soar to introduce a Shanghai city-limited series to enhance brand recognition and user interaction [2] - 滔博 plans to maintain healthy gross margins through a volume control strategy and cost optimization measures [4][6] Collaboration with Nike - Nike's increased wholesale discounts are expected to positively impact 滔博's gross margins by providing better purchase subsidies [4][6] - The collaboration with Nike aims to standardize market order and optimize pricing, which may have short-term impacts but is expected to enhance overall value in the long term [4][7] - Nike's old inventory recovery efforts are anticipated to alleviate operational pressures on retail partners and improve market conditions [6][19] Future Outlook - The external environment remains challenging, with cautious expectations for terminal demand due to ongoing low foot traffic and retail fluctuations [6] - The company anticipates potential deviations from annual profit targets, but the range of deviation is considered manageable [3][6] - 滔博 is focused on long-term growth driven by national policy support and increasing public enthusiasm for sports [7] Inventory Management - Inventory management is a dynamic process influenced by demand, online promotional rhythms, and pricing strategies [9][10] - The company is implementing new measures to improve inventory turnover and overall market health [9] Competitive Landscape - Adidas has shown strong performance in the current quarter, particularly with its three-stripe series and localized product strategies [15] - The competitive environment remains challenging, with various factors affecting sales performance across different companies [10] Conclusion - 滔博 is committed to enhancing its operational efficiency and profitability while navigating a challenging retail environment. The focus remains on strategic partnerships, particularly with Nike, to drive long-term growth and market share expansion [20][21]