行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is fluctuating, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has changed and the steel price continues to fluctuate. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and definitions of different trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and the weekly output has continued to decline, but the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Thanks to pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the peak season is lackluster. Overall, due to the improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing support for the steel price, but the weak downstream performance and demand concerns remain, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a fluctuating trend before the holiday, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

【沪银期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至2%】智通财经9月23日电，沪银期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至 2%，现报10375元/千克。 转自：智通财经 ...

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 23 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 铝观点： 美联储降息靴子落地，但周一中国 5 年期 LPR 维持不变，国新办新闻发布会 亦未涉及短期政策调整，A 股走弱，日内沪铝冲高回落延续调整态势，主力 2511 收跌 0.36%报 20745，10-11 转为升水 5，远月尚呈现小幅 contango 结构，进口窗 口保持关闭，现货进口亏损扩大至-1780 元/吨。北方国产铝土矿仍未恢复生产， 年内复产概率低，北方矿价有上涨动力，但下游氧化铝现货价格走跌，压价意愿 增强，矿价上涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly provides daily data on iron ore including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, and more. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - DCE01: Today's price is 808.5, up 1.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 786.0, unchanged; DCE09 is 766.0, up 2.0 [2] - Inter - contract spreads: I01 - I05 is 22.5, up 1.0; I05 - I09 is 20.0, down 2.0; I09 - I01 is - 42.5, up 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - Various iron ore spot prices increased compared to the previous day. For example, PB powder (60.8%) rose from 780 to 786, Newman powder from 789 to 796, etc. [2] Basis - The basis of different iron ore varieties to different contracts is provided. For the optimal delivery product (Roy Hill powder), the 01 - contract basis is 34, 05 - contract basis is 55, and 09 - contract basis is 77 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 128 to 129 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the import profit of Carajás fines decreased from 18 to 3 [2] Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased from 105.2 to 106.6, the 65% price remained unchanged at 120.8, and the 58% price increased from 93.3 to 94.6 [2] 内外盘美金价差 - The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts increased. For example, SGX main - DCE01 increased from 7.2 to 7.5 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The trading strategy for pure benzene is a sideways and weak trend for single - sided trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage. For benzene - ethylene, the single - sided trading is also expected to be sideways and weak, and the strategies for arbitrage and options are to wait and see. The price of pure benzene is expected to show a weak sideways movement, and benzene - ethylene may face inventory accumulation pressure and price decline in the future [5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Pure Benzene - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, increasing the risk of employment decline and inflation rise, and the macro - sentiment is weak. Geopolitical tensions have led to high - level fluctuations in oil prices. The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, the price difference with naphtha and styrene has remained stable, and the spot price has slightly increased. The import arrival in East China has been lower than expected, and the port inventory has decreased. The inventory of Shandong refineries is low, and the price is firm, but the buying interest has declined in the second half of the week. The price difference between Shandong and East China has strengthened, and the regional arbitrage window remains closed [5][11]. - Some pure benzene maintenance devices have restarted, and some new devices have been put into production, increasing the overall supply. The start - up rate of hydrogenated benzene has increased, although the profit remains in a loss state with a small loss margin, and the overall supply is also expected to increase. The downstream profit of pure benzene continues to be in a loss state, the inventory of major downstream products has increased, and the downstream procurement is coming to an end [5][26][28]. Benzene - ethylene - The price of benzene - ethylene first rose and then fell this week. The unexpected shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical widened the price difference between East China and Shandong, and the north - south arbitrage window opened. The inventory in East China ports has increased, and the basis has slightly weakened. The inventory of ports and trading enterprises has increased month - on - month, while the inventory of production enterprises has decreased [7][35]. - Some benzene - ethylene devices have reduced their loads or shut down, and some have restarted, resulting in a slight decline in the weekly start - up rate. In the future, the start - up rate is expected to increase, and new devices are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, increasing the supply. The downstream 3S orders are insufficient, the market spot supply is abundant, and the enterprise inventory is generally high, so benzene - ethylene may face inventory accumulation pressure in the future [7][44]. 2. Core Logic Analysis No specific content in the document is marked as core logic analysis, so this part is skipped. 3. Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 Pure Benzene - **Industrial Chain Prices**: The prices of pure benzene in East China, styrene in East China, EPS, PS, and ABS are presented, showing the price trends over the years [52]. - **External Prices**: The prices of pure benzene CFR in China, FOB in South Korea, FOB in the United States, and FOB in Rotterdam are shown [55]. - **Variety Price Differences**: The price differences between pure benzene and naphtha (external market), styrene and pure benzene (external and internal markets) are presented [57]. - **Regional Price Differences**: The price differences between Shandong and East China, China and South Korea, and the United States and South Korea for pure benzene are shown [61]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The production profits of pure benzene, styrene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, phenol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and aniline are presented [67][71]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene are shown [74]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene is presented [75]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The start - up rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid, which are downstream of pure benzene, are shown [79]. 3.2 Benzene - ethylene - **Internal and External Prices**: The spot price of benzene - ethylene in East China, CFR in China, FOB in South Korea, FOB in the United States, and FOB in Rotterdam are presented [83]. - **External Price Differences**: The price differences between internal and external markets of benzene - ethylene, and between China and the United States, South Korea, and Rotterdam are shown [86]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The production profits of benzene - ethylene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, POSM, EPS, PS, and ABS are presented [88]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up**: The start - up rates of benzene - ethylene, PS, ABS, EPS, and phenol are shown [90][91]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventories of benzene - ethylene in East China, South China, and overall are presented [93].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will fluctuate around the cost line with wide - amplitude oscillations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2511 and 2601 are 5736 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan and 8 yuan respectively compared to the previous trading day. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2511 and 2601 are 5930 yuan/ton and 5964 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan and 6 yuan respectively. The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts are also presented [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) is - 386 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) is - 234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 0 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 34 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spread between silicomanganese 2511 and ferrosilicon 2511 is 194 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On September 19, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon was 5900 - 6050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1140 dollars/ton, both up 10 dollars/ton. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of September 19, the total inventory of manganese ore was 420.63 million tons, a decrease of 24.15 million tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in Tianjin Port decreased by 18.92 million tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 7.25 million tons, in Caofeidian Port increased by 2.52 million tons, and in Fangchenggang decreased by 0.5 million tons [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [3].

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance at the opening, with silver rising over 3% to reach a new historical high [2] - Industrial silicon and coking coal both increased by more than 2% [2] - In terms of declines, fuel oil, SC crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) all fell by over 1% [2]