甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/12 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/08/0 5 801 2378 2373 2538 2535 2510 2695 271 333 44 -15 -1237 2025/08/0 6 801 2395 2390 2558 2535 2535 2710 272 333 44 -12 -1237 2025/08/0 7 801 2387 2385 2555 2535 2535 2710 272 333 37 -10 -1237 2025/08/0 8 801 2383 2378 2545 2535 2535 2690 270 333 52 -12 -1237 2025/08/1 1 801 2374 2375 2550 2550 2535 2703 270 333 52 -10 -1237 日度变化 0 -9 -3 5 15 0 13 0 0 0 2 0 观点 本周跟随煤炭波动，甲醇自身基本面变化不大，仍在累库途中，进 ...

Report Title - Palm Oil: Supply and Demand in Producing Areas Are Both Strong, Focus on Buying at Low Levels; Soybean Oil: Lack of Drivers from US Soybeans, Pay Attention to Subsequent Domestic Purchases [2] Report Date - August 12, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the supply and demand in producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to buy at low levels; for soybean oil, there is a lack of drivers from US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent domestic purchases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 2.65%, night - session closing price was up 0.20%, with 567,374 lots traded (an increase of 125,153) and 299,985 lots held (a decrease of 5,729) [3] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.67%, night - session closing price was down 0.38%, with 164,012 lots traded (a decrease of 40,472) and 335,019 lots held (a decrease of 29,250) [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.15%, night - session closing price was up 0.33%, with 194,113 lots traded (an increase of 713) and 126,040 lots held (a decrease of 14,440) [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 3.06%, night - session closing price was down 0.27% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.91% [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The price was 8,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The price was 8,650 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: The price was 1,060 dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 238 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 194 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 18 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The previous trading day was 370 yuan/ton, and the day before was 594 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: It was - 778 yuan/ton, compared with - 592 yuan/ton previously [3] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in July increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, and imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons [4] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [6] - Indonesia: Trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the DMO plan, aiming to lower prices, and the DMO level should be maintained at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out [6] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - Abiove: In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [7] - Secex: Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with an average daily export volume 27% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [7] - CCC: Canada exported 651,106 tons of rapeseed, 223,217 tons of rapeseed oil, and 459,023 tons of rapeseed meal in June 2025. As of June, the 2024/25 annual exports were 8.911907 million tons of rapeseed, 3.127944 million tons of rapeseed oil, and 5.369241 million tons of rapeseed meal [7] - APK - Inform: Lowered the forecast of Ukraine's soybean production this year to 5830,000 tons from the previous 6260,000 tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 1; soybean oil trend intensity was 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [9]

【现货消息】 短纤：PF 期货震荡偏强，现货方面工厂报价多维稳，福建局部优惠缩小，下游跟涨意愿低。期现及贸易 商基差报价略有走弱，部分基差报价：新拓 09+170，中磊 09+150，三房 09+160，逸达 09+140，华宏 09-20， 贸易商成交两极分化。今日半光 1.4D 主流重心维持在 6350~6700 区间。工厂销售相对偏淡，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 57%，部分工厂产销：100%、500%、0%、50%、50%、50%、80%、30%、50%。 2025 年 08 月 12 日 短纤：短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 63 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has a relatively low valuation on the futures market, and investors should pay attention to the risk of position reduction [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of propylene is tightening, and there is certain support for its price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, PG2509 closed at 3,799 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a night - session close of 3,788 with a decline of 0.29%; PG2510 closed at 4,273 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a night - session close of 4,268 with a decline of 0.12%; PL2601 closed at 6,491 with a daily increase of 0.62% and a night - session close of 6,498 with an increase of 0.11%; PL2602 closed at 6,541 with a daily increase of 0.60% and a night - session close of 6,559 with an increase of 0.28% [1]. - **LPG Positions and Trading Volumes**: PG2509 had a trading volume of 72,506, a decrease of 26,484 from the previous day, and a position of 105,831, a decrease of 2,800; PG2510 had a trading volume of 26,378, a decrease of 3,884, and a position of 90,819, an increase of 603; PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,288, an increase of 101, and a position of 4,453, a decrease of 294; PL2602 had a trading volume of 39 and a decrease of 10 [1]. - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 521 (previous day: 576); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 601 (previous day: 626); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 49 (previous day: - 151); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 91 (previous day: - 126); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 166 (previous day: - 126) [1]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8% (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% (last week: 48.8%) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]. 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 8, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 522 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 492 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 537 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; for butane, it was 507 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times still undetermined [9]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many factories, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different start and end times and varying loss volumes [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Olefins - Polyolefins: The futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices. Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly. Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Polyester: Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - Coal Chemicals: Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas. Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers. PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6]. - Soda Ash - Glass: Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply. Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]. Summary by Sections Olefins - Polyolefins - Futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices [2]. - Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly [3] - Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3] Polyester - Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas [6] - Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers [6] - PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply [7] - Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]

2025 年 08 月 11 日 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16845 | -0.18% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2003.5 | -0.17% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 31008 | -1423 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5355 | -456 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 59123 | -2896 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 151197 | 868 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -35 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -31.29 | 2.23 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -55 | -5 | 进口升贴水（ ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG is expected to experience short - term weak and volatile trends, while propylene's supply - demand situation is tightening, and its price has certain support [1]. - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1, indicating a neutral outlook for LPG and a slightly positive outlook for propylene [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - PG2509 closed at 3,774 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.28% and a night - session close of 3,775 with a 0.03% increase. - PG2510 closed at 4,252 yesterday with a 0.91% decline and a night - session close of 4,257 with a 0.12% increase. - PL2601 closed at 6,451 yesterday with a 0.45% decline and a night - session close of 6,463 with a 0.19% increase. - PL2602 closed at 6,502 yesterday with a 0.35% decline and a night - session close of 6,510 with a 0.12% increase [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: - For PG2509, yesterday's trading volume was 98,990, an increase of 23,479 from the previous day, and the position was 108,631, an increase of 2,869. - For PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 30,262, an increase of 2,357 from the previous day, and the position was 90,216, an increase of 2,753. - For PL2601, yesterday's trading volume was 1,187, an increase of 69 from the previous day, and the position was 4,747, an increase of 213. - For PL2602, yesterday's trading volume was 49, an increase of 37 from the previous day, and the position was 924, a decrease of 38 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG09 contract was 566 yesterday, up from 527 the previous day. - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG09 contract was 576 yesterday, up from 517 the previous day. - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 151 yesterday, up from - 205 the previous day. - The spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day. - The spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day [1]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: - The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8%, up from 72.6% last week. - The MTBE operating rate was 66.6%, down from 67.8%. - The alkylation operating rate was 50.0%, up from 48.8% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 7, 2025, the expected price of propane for September's Saudi CP was 518 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 488 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton. For October, the expected price of propane was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton, and the expected price of butane was 502 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times yet to be determined [10]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, along with their fundamental data and macro - industry news, helping investors understand the market situation of these commodities [2][5][8] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (-0.38%); yesterday's position was 308,077 hands, down 27,288 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,213 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.71%); for HC2510, it was 3,428 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%). Spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. There were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month - on - month, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. On August 7, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; a manganese mine enterprise signed a long - term contract; manganese ore inventory in ports changed [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 declined. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different trends, and there were changes in basis and spreads [15] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [19] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

2025 年 8 月 10 日 端涉辑限 駒. 冶炼 空博弈加剧,钢价震荡运 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 增加 437 吨至 12014 吨，保税区库存减少 400 吨至 5190 吨。LME 镍库存增加 5160 吨至 209082 吨。 2）有色网 7 月底镍铁库存 33415 吨，月环比-10%,同比+56%, 库存压力偏高，边际稍有缓和。 报告导读: 沪線基本面:预计镍价窄幅震荡运行,关注区间操作和双卖期权策略。矿端支撑逻辑削弱,冶炼瑞逻 辑限制弹性。全球精炼镍显性库存趋势回归温和增加,对镍价上方形成拖累,长远端的低成本供应增量预 期可能会动摇成本曲线格局,不过,下半年成本曲线仍暂时参照火法一体化路径,因此短线線价或呈现出 深跌有难度,但上方存在压制的格局。从相对估值来看,短线镍铁环节库存高位有所松动,带动价格底部 轻微上修,从转产经济性的角度稍微提振镍价上方空间,但是幅度有限。整体而言,基本面矛盾不够凸显, 弹性有限,盘面边际跟随板块的宏观情绪变化。多头主要关注点在于矿端,配额增加向矿端价格传导,但 整体跌幅相对温和,火法现金成本下移 2%左 ...

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - Monitor the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in major producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69%. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1,125, a decline of 13.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 5 to 1,095, an increase of 0.46% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production was 392,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.23%. Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.03%. India's production was 62,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.82%. China's production was 103,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased by 5,798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,318 tons to 39,716 tons, an increase of 6.20% [1]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure may increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the spot price is still under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 800 - 850 [3]. 2. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The price of Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5. The price of Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840, a decline of 0.06%. The price of Log 2601 remained unchanged at 841.5 [3]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.183. The import theoretical cost increased by 13.84 yuan to 818.70 yuan [3]. Supply - In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong increased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 56,000 cubic meters to 960,000 cubic meters, a decline of 5.55% [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters. The demand last week increased by 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Core Viewpoint Soda Ash - The supply is in excess. The spot sales are weak. Consider short - selling at high prices in the short - term and monitor the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [4]. Glass - The futures price has weakened, and the market sentiment has declined. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. Hold short positions and monitor the implementation of policies and the stocking performance of downstream industries [4]. 2. Summary by Directory Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased, while the price in Central China remained unchanged. The prices of Glass 2505 and Glass 2509 decreased [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of Soda Ash 2505 and Soda Ash 2509 decreased [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased from 80.27% to 85.41%, and the weekly production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - cases to 61.847 million weight - cases, an increase of 3.95%. The soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton in August. Consider buying at low prices when the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control and risk management [5]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44%. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 to - 25, a decline of 66.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.10%. The organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.54% [5]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02%. The social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon price fluctuates and declines. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices [6]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material increased by 1,235 to - 3,110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 1,235 to 20,110, a decline of 2.41%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2,075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.02 GW, a year - on - year increase of 9.27%. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [6]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 960,000 pieces to 19.11 million pieces, an increase of 5.29% [6].