Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7288 | 7239 | 7301 | 7231 | -45 | -0.62% | 122440 | 5899 | | Plastic 2605 | 7258 | 7214 | 7272 | 7206 | -35 | -0.48% | 2935 | 568 | | Plastic 2509 | 7285 | 7221 | 7292 | 7208 | -63 | -0.86% | 433865 | 12529 | | PP2601 | 7072 | 7024 | 7080 | 7015 | -34 | -0.48% | 110563 | 4374 | | PP2605 | 7066 | 7018 | 7074 | 7010 | -33 | -0.47% | 5931 | 1115 | | PP2509 | 7080 | 7015 | 7080 | 7008 | -50 | -0.71% | 397459 | 5611 | [5] Spot Market - On July 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (-0.63%) from the previous working day, compared with 765,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE market prices declined weakly. Linear PE prices were as follows: North China: 7,100 - 7,400 yuan/ton; East China: 7,200 - 7,600 yuan/ton; South China: 7,280 - 7,550 yuan/ton [7] - Shandong propylene market prices declined slightly, closing at 6,270 - 6,300 yuan/ton at 12:00, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] - PP futures fluctuated at a low level, suppressing the market trading atmosphere. The mainstream prices of North China PP drawstrings were 6,980 - 7,080 yuan/ton; East China: 6,980 - 7,130 yuan/ton; South China: 6,970 - 7,200 yuan/ton [7] Market Review and Outlook - LLDPE L2509 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%), with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 2,987 to 436,852 lots [6] - PP futures closed at 7,013 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan (-0.33%), with an increase in open interest of 13,700 lots to 411,200 lots [6] - Futures opened lower and fluctuated, dampening the market trading atmosphere. Some ex-factory prices were lowered, and spot prices partially declined. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low [6] - Entering the consumption off-season, the downstream operating rate of polyethylene was at the lowest level of the year, and there was no sign of improvement in pipe demand. The demand side was difficult to support, while the supply side pressure increased. Previously shut-down plants were planned to restart, and the loss of maintenance was expected to weaken. The supply side would still face pressure in the future. Downstream companies mostly maintained a low inventory strategy, and the supply-demand balance was expected to deteriorate, leading to a weak downward trend in the single-sided market [6] Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market is in a consumption off - season with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although group farms have not increased supply, some individual farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This indicates that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may cause more concentrated sales, leading to an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of this inventory cycle is more complex and needs to be judged based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and individual farmers' hoarding behavior. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 16,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,010 yuan/ton, 13,490 yuan/ton, and 13,700 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 240 yuan/ton, 130 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 50,384 lots, 10,814 lots, and 4,715 lots respectively, with increases of 26,540 lots, 5,178 lots, and 44 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 69,001 lots, 44,390 lots, and 22,988 lots respectively, with increases of 1,125 lots, 822 lots, and 265 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 620 yuan/ton, 1,140 yuan/ton, and 930 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 140 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and - 35 yuan/ton. The Pig 9 - 11 spread is 520 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the short - term, due to the consumption off - season and increased selling by individual farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market's expectation of a future price increase may lead to more concentrated sales and an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of the inventory cycle is complex and needs further spot price verification. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Different metals show different trends, with some expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and others to be affected by short - term factors [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed down 0.21% to $9,637/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77,950 yuan/ton. Trump's 50% copper tariff announcement will put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons to 121,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 50,000 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the tariff impact and the off - season [2]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77,200 - 78,600 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,720/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed down 0.29% to $2,575/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,425 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 33.6 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 42.4 tons [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may be volatile due to the low inventory and the off - season [4]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,550 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - 2,600/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.20% to 16,911 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $2.5 to $1,986/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 271,100 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be weak due to the relatively loose supply [6]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.21% to 22,023 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $12.5 to $2,699/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 93,100 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [8]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price was in a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply shortage persists, and the demand is weak. The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is 54.07% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9,644 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. - **Price Range**: The domestic tin price is expected to operate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 35,000/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell and adjusted [10]. - **Supply Impact**: The fire at Zhejiang Zhongneng has limited impact on pure nickel supply [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel iron price is expected to continue to fall, and it is recommended to short the nickel price at high levels [10]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,000/ton [10]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2509 contract closed down 0.36% [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be affected by news and market sentiment [12]. - **Price Range**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 64,800 - 67,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.56% to 3,094 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,500 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short at high levels [15]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 116,750 tons [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile due to the off - season demand [17]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.15% to 19,820 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 40 tons to 28,000 tons [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to face resistance due to the off - season and the aluminum price pressure [19].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed a downward trend with the main contract closing at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots. The LME zinc inventory increased for two consecutive days, and the domestic social inventory increased as expected. The zinc ingot supply remained strong, while the consumption was squeezed by the off - season and weak exports. The market was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: Different contracts of Shanghai zinc (2507, 2508, 2509) all declined. The main contract 2508 opened at 22,110 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots, and the monthly spread C strengthened to 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME zinc inventory in Singapore increased by 5,200 tons to 118,600 tons. The domestic social inventory on Monday increased by 0.28 million tons to 9.31 million tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The import zinc concentrate index was 66.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate weekly processing fee rose to 3,800 yuan/ton. The overall zinc ingot supply was strong. The domestic consumption was affected by the off - season and weak exports, and the off - season inventory accumulation trend was gradually realized [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The market tested the support at the 22,000 yuan integer mark, and it was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions**: On July 15, 2025, in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, the prices of 0 and 1 zinc and their premiums to different contracts were reported. For example, in Shanghai, 0 zinc mainstream成交价 was between 22,325 - 22,530 yuan/ton, and the premium to the 2508 contract was different for different brands [8][17]. 3. Data Overview - **Relevant Charts**: The report included charts such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE monthly spread [13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina futures are expected to be short - term bullish and oscillatory, targeting the key resistance level of 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected continuous release of supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [14][135]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is expected to oscillate within the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [15][136]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [15][136]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market Overview - **Macro**: Trump announced on July 9 that a 50% tariff would be imposed on all imported copper starting from August 1. Also, on July 7, he declared tariffs on imported products from 14 countries starting from August 1 and postponed the implementation of the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1 [8]. - **Spot**: As of July 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. As of July 4, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27 [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [8]. - **Demand**: As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The operating rates of the aluminum plate and strip and aluminum cable sectors decreased, while others remained stable [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3, mainly due to the increase in alumina price. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3 [10]. - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminium, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish and oscillatory trend [13]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price as of July 11 was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. Tightening spot circulation and spot discount transactions led to the rebound of the average spot price [27]. 2.1 Supply - As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. There is an expectation of future supply surplus due to capacity restart and new capacity release [31]. 2.1 Import and Export - As of July 10, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The alumina import and export windows are both closed [33]. 2.1 Cost and Profit - As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has expanded to about 284 yuan/ton [36]. 2.1 Inventory - As of July 10, the alumina port inventory was 26,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a low level in the past four years. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [40]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost - As of July 11, the pit - mouth coal price in Ordos decreased slightly, while those in Yulin, Datong, and the FOB coal price at Qinhuangdao Port increased. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/kWh. The pre - baked anode price in major production areas remained stable this week [48][52]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [57]. 2.3 Supply - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. As of the end of June, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96%, unchanged from the previous month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [59]. 2.4 Spot - As of July 11, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 4 [62]. 2.6 Demand - As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in June was 40.1%, remaining below the boom - bust line and down 8.8% from May [69]. 2.7 Inventory - As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports the price, but the support may weaken during the off - season [73]. 2.8 Futures Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from July 4. From July 4 to July 10, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 38,750 tons to 395,725 tons [77]. 2.9 Import and Export - The import profit window for aluminum ingots is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [79][84]. 2.11 Terminal - The real estate market is slowly recovering. From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 238,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period in July last year. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 135,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21% [88][90]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis 4.1 Raw Materials - The price of scrap aluminum has been high. The aluminum scrap - refined aluminum price difference shows certain characteristics [96][98]. 4.2 ADC12 Cost and Profit - The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy has increased, and the profit situation is affected [100][101]. 4.3 ADC12 Spot Price - The average price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and there are differences in prices in different regions [103][106]. 4.4 Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit - The overseas ADC12 price and import profit situation have changed [108][111]. 4.5 Supply - The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy have certain characteristics [113][115]. 4.6 Demand - The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [117][120]. 4.7 Inventory - The inventory of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [128]. 4.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain characteristics [130][131]. 3. Future Outlook - **Alumina**: In the short term, alumina futures are expected to be bullish and oscillatory, targeting 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected increase in supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [135]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE Aluminium is expected to oscillate within the range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [136]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [136].

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - **Macro**: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Upstream**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend this week. With the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data, the overall interest - rate cut expectation fluctuated. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly, with imports from January to May contributing to the growth. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4]. - Lead prices rose moderately this week. Supply - side issues persist, demand is still weak overall, and prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the Myanmar situation and domestic production cuts, demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11]. - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly [16]. - Nickel supply is high, demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18]. - Stainless steel supply has seen partial production cuts, demand is mainly for essential needs, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices had a reverse V - shaped trend. Macro factors included the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data and the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" bill. Fundamentally, domestic inventory increased, and consumption was suppressed. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to adjust in the third - quarter off - season [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes online and some smelters resume production after maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas. The strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues such as low scrap battery supply and high - cost raw materials persist. Demand is still weak overall, mainly for essential needs. Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic production cuts. Demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - In July, production is expected to decline due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate. The market expectation has shifted from inventory build - up to inventory reduction [15] Lithium Carbonate - This week, prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of major projects [16] Nickel - Supply is high as pure nickel production remains at a high level and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18] Stainless Steel - Supply has seen partial production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for essential needs. Cost is stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of macro - improvement and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, with a small accumulation expected in July. Long - term attention should be paid to the price increase driven by stronger - than - expected consumption under the background of supply constraints [4]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [6]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 114,240 lots and a position of 281,092 lots. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 474,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 356,975 tons, up 350 tons from the previous day [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market transaction premium is still falling, and social inventory shows signs of accumulation. The supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the industry profit is rich. The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short term, beware of price drops due to inventory accumulation; in the long term, pay attention to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption [4]. Alumina - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 361.6 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 336,450 lots and a position of 279,051 lots. The alumina warehouse receipt was 21,000 tons [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, and the new project of Guangtou is about to be put into production. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [5][6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 15,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of aluminum alloy was 108,800 tons, up 2,100 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [8] Core Views - Steel: The market has strong speculative sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. Steel is entering the off - season, with no obvious changes in fundamentals and slightly better de - stocking than seasonal expectations. The inventory of rebar is gradually decreasing, and the plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient due to price advantages, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by market sentiment, the price is oscillating upwards. The overall supply is increasing, and iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is positive, and the prices are rebounding. For coke, after multiple price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: With the increase in downstream demand, the price is oscillating upwards. Some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the long term, the supply is still abundant [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3065 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. The market speculative atmosphere is strong, and the futures trading volume has increased. The spot price has risen, and the national building materials trading volume was 12500 tons yesterday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Commodity futures are generally rising, and steel is entering the off - season. The fundamentals are stable, and de - stocking is slightly better than expected. Rebar inventory is decreasing, and the plate has strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and demand changes in the off - season [1]. - Strategy: Neutral for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, the futures price is oscillating upwards. The price of imported iron ore has risen slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 1.06 million tons yesterday, a 0.19% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of forward - looking spot was 1.03 million tons, a 33.12% decrease [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has decreased, but the overall supply is increasing. Iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the iron - making water production in the off - season and industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating upwards. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1442 yuan/ton, a 3.15% increase; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, a 3.18% increase. The trading atmosphere of imported coal has warmed up [5]. - Logic and Views: For coke, after price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The price is rebounding due to improved market sentiment [6]. - Strategy: Oscillating for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply and output have increased. With the increase in high - temperature days, traders' bullish sentiment may persist, and some stocking demand will be released. The price in the production area fluctuates within 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the inventory is decreasing slightly, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has increased, but high - price transactions are limited. The imported coal market is stable, with high - cost - performance of medium - and low - calorie coal, and active domestic bidding and restocking [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, some coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the short term, the price is rising slightly. In the long term, the supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8]