Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Congo Tin [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Styrene, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral: Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silver, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Steam, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1][2] Core Views - Two major domestic meetings have concluded, releasing limited incremental information. In the short term, be wary of the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the implementation of meeting policies. Asset shortage and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside. Market sentiment has been fluctuating, with increased price volatility. Look for opportunities to buy at low levels [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stock Index: Be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are a constraint [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Limited industrial drivers, but fluctuating risk appetite leads to wide - range high - level oscillations [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental outlook. Some short - sellers are leaving the market, causing a price rebound, but the upward momentum is limited [1] - Zinc: Short - term macro benefits have been digested. Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward, with an expected short - term bullish trend [1] - Nickel: Macro sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and Indonesia's 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval. Global nickel inventories are high, and short - term prices may decline in a volatile manner [1] - Stainless Steel: Macro sentiment is volatile. Pay attention to policies and production. Raw - material nickel prices are falling, and futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Tin: Due to the tense situation in Congo, it is considered bullish in the long term. Look for opportunities to buy on dips [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and have long - term upward potential [1] - Silver: Prices are highly volatile and may oscillate widely in the short term [1] - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and long - term buying on dips is recommended [1] - Palladium: May follow platinum's strength in the short term. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while Southwest production is decreasing. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon are decreasing [1] - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, supply is increasing, and there is significant pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Futures - spot arbitrage positions can take rolling profits. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, leaving room for upward movement in far - month contracts [1] - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1] - Ferrosilicon: Similar to manganese silicon, prices are under pressure [1] - Glass: Supply - demand is supportive, valuation is low, and prices are fluctuating upward [1] - Soda Ash: Follows the trend of glass. Supply - demand is okay, valuation is low, and downward space is limited [1] - Coking Coal: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to downstream winter - storage replenishment [1] - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data is negative, and short - selling is recommended [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is likely over, and selling the 05 contract is advised [1] - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Pay attention to future policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices fall further, cost support will be strong, but there is a lack of continuous short - term drivers [1] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand mismatch in the spot market has eased but not fully resolved. Pay attention to sales progress and inventory changes [1] - Soybean Meal: Domestic near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Pay attention to oil - mill operations and South American weather [1] - Pulp: Futures prices are affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see on one - sided trading and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - Logs: Affected by falling external prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] - Pork: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, but the production capacity has not been fully released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1] - Fuel Oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Raw - material cost support is strong, the futures - spot price difference is low, and intermediate inventory may start to accumulate [1] - BR Rubber: Trading volume has improved, and export support exists. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but long - term tire demand is increasing [1] - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and consumption is stable. The cost is high, and the profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, and prices are falling. Coal prices are dropping, weakening the cost support [1] - Short Fiber: Prices closely follow the cost [1] - Styrene: Cost support is weak, production profitability is negative, and inventory has not significantly decreased [1] - Steam: Export sentiment has eased, and there is limited upside. There is support from the cost side [1] - Propylene: The monomer price is high, providing cost support. The oil - based cost is decreasing due to falling crude - oil prices [1] - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1] - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants are delaying production, and there is pressure to accumulate inventory in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high [1] - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the market is returning to a loose supply - demand situation. The PG price is oscillating within a range [1]

| 方富强 | | 国贸期货研究员 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 2025/12/16 | | 变化 (%) 15:00期货价格 | 价格指标 | 现货价格 | | | 变化 (%) | 图表 | | # 0. 65 11871. 5 | | 11816 | | | 0.92 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | 锌 -2. 35 3172. 5 | LME | 3242 | | | -0. 19 | | | -0. 21 2890 铝 镍 -0. 21 | (美元/吨) | 1932 14420 | | 14645 | 0. 03 0. 24 | | | 期货与现货 锡 42400 3. 34 价格 | | 41905 | | | 2. 42 | 100000 | | 铜 -1.7 92400 锌 -1. 35 23430 | | 92370 23410 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Platinum [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Silver, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Log, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping [1][2] Core Views - In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. There is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. - Metal prices are affected by factors such as industrial drivers, risk preferences, and macro - policies, showing different trends of high - level volatility, short - term rebound with limited upward drive, and short - term shock - strengthening [1]. - Precious metals have different short - and long - term trends, with some having short - term shocks and long - term upward potential, and some being recommended to wait and see [1]. - New energy - related products are affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term pressure [1]. - Black metal prices are affected by factors such as macro - drivers, supply - demand, and inventory, and some products have opportunities for basis positive - spread positions [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as reports, policies, and supply - demand, and different products have different trends and investment suggestions [1]. - Energy - chemical product prices are affected by factors such as international agreements, supply - demand, and cost, showing trends of decline, shock, and short - term upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: In the short - term, be cautious about the “buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news” adjustment after the policy implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the stock index to rise next year. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The market sentiment is fluctuating recently, and there is an opportunity to go long at low positions [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Oxide: Industrial drivers are limited, and risk preferences are fluctuating. The aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level. Domestic alumina production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Some short - positions are closed in the short - term, and the price rebounds, but the upward drive is limited [1]. - Zinc: Short - term macro - benefits have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and it is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to the changes in domestic growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. Global nickel inventory is still high. The nickel price may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to position changes and macro - sentiment. The cost of integrated MHP provides support below. Operate mainly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will be in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Pay attention to domestic growth - stabilizing policies and the RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026. The price of raw - material ferronickel has temporarily stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the estimated production cut by steel mills in December has increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. The raw - material price has stabilized, and steel mills have raised prices. The stainless - steel futures are oscillating. It is recommended to operate mainly in the short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies for hedging [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. Tin is still regarded as bullish in the long - term. Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: It has fallen after reaching a high. The gold price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, but there is still upward space in the long - term [1]. - Silver: It has fallen after reaching a high, with sharp fluctuations. The silver price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Platinum: The platinum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term [1]. - Palladium: The palladium price is expected to enter an oscillation phase in the short - term. From the perspective of the relative strength of the fundamentals, the “long platinum, short palladium” arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing in the northwest and decreasing in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. The number of delivery brands has increased [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles. Energy - storage demand is strong. Supply - side production resumption has increased. There is great pressure at the key level of 100,000 yuan [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and can appropriately participate in spot - futures positions [1]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - drive has increased in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - spread positions. Do not chase high in single - side trading, and the spot - futures positive - spread positions can still be continuously participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month contract [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Direct demand is weakening, supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass. The supply - demand situation is okay, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Coke: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is likely to be near the end. The coke contract at 1630 prices in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. Each coking - coal contract is also close to the key support level. Further decline requires a continuous increase in coking - coal supply. From a drive perspective, it may need to wait. Downstream is expected to start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, treat single - side trading with a short - term mindset for now, and wait and see for the long - term. Close out hedging short - positions [1]. - Coking Coal: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB report is bearish, but the German RED III policy is bullish for origin exports. The night - session shows a rebound. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Soybean Oil: The USDA report has no highlights. Recently, pay attention to the bearish impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Affected by the news of the return of imported non - GMO rapeseed oil, the supply of rapeseed oil has become relatively tight, and there is an expectation of a rebound [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream opening rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the cotton demand in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of “having support but no drive”. In the future, pay attention to the setting of direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand from March to April [1]. - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The bearish consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: In the short - term, funds are taking profits, and the futures price is giving back the emotional premium, but the spot contradiction has not been completely resolved. The short - term decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. Still, pay attention to changes in farmers' grain - selling mentality and inventory at each link [1]. - Soybean Meal: There are rumors of delayed customs clearance in China. Today, the成交率 and成交 premium of domestic imported soybean auctions are high, reflecting the market's expectation of commercial shortages, which is bullish for the near - month contract and positive spreads. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious speculation drive for South American weather, and the Brazilian discount is expected to be under pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Pulp: Pulp futures have been fluctuating greatly recently, being pulled by the reality of “weak demand” and the expectation of “strong supply”. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - Log: Log futures have fallen due to the negative impact of falling foreign - market quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is still being promoted. The US has intensified a new round of sanctions against Russia. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for catch - up construction during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber: The raw - material cost provides strong support. The futures - spot price difference is at a low level. The mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1]. - BR Rubber: The trading of butadiene has improved, the ex - tank price has increased, and there is bullish support on the export side. The listed price of major producers of cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber has stabilized, and the ex - factory price of private enterprises has increased. High production and high inventory are still pressures, but the long - term demand for tires at home and abroad is increasing. Pay attention to the export situation of synthetic rubber [1]. - PTA: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX cost is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification is expected to drive an increase in exports [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory is accumulating, and the price is falling accordingly. The coal price has fallen, and the cost support for domestic ethylene glycol has continued to weaken. The strong expectation of domestic plant commissioning is suppressing the rise of ethylene glycol [1]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: The styrene market as a whole maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Discussions about exports provide some support, but the polymer market sales are weak. US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has declined, and the price of high - octane components has declined [1]. - Urea: The number of overhauls has decreased, and the operating load is at a high level. There are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - Propylene: The number of overhauls is small, and the operating load is relatively high. The supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, providing strong cost support. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [2]. - PVC: The futures price has returned to the fundamentals. There will be fewer overhauls in the future, and new production capacity will be released, increasing the supply pressure. The demand has weakened, and orders are not good [2]. - Caustic Soda: The pre - delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have delayed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there are few overhauls. There is inventory - accumulation pressure for caustic soda in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The short - positions in the 01 contract have been rolled over to the March contract, and the shorts have not left the market [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental logic of looseness. The FEI has recently rebounded and repaired upwards. The heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually being released, and there is support from chemical rigid demand. The production and sales of domestic C3/C4 are smooth, and there is no inventory pressure. After the decline in the PG futures price, it maintains a range - bound oscillation. Pay attention to the price increase of the near - month contract affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [2]. - Container Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected. The expectation of price increases in the peak season was priced in advance. The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock index, bullish on treasury bonds [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Aluminum - high - level wide - range shock; Alumina - weak fundamentals, limited upward drive; Zinc - expected to be shock - strong; Nickel - shock - weak; Stainless steel - shock; Tin - bullish in the long - term; Gold - shock in the short - term, upward space in the long - term; Silver - wide - range shock in the short - term; Platinum - shock - strong in the short - term, long - term long - position allocation; Palladium - shock in the short - term; Industrial silicon - bearish; Polysilicon - shock; Lithium carbonate - affected by multiple factors, facing pressure at 100,000 yuan [1] - **Black Metals**: Rebar - shock; Hot - rolled coil - shock; Iron ore - shock; Manganese silicon - shock; Silicomanganese - shock; Glass - price fluctuates strongly; Soda ash - shock; Coke - shock; Coking coal - shock [1] - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil - wait - and - see; Rapeseed oil - expected to rebound; Cotton - "supported, no drive" in the short - term; Sugar - bearish consensus, cost - supported below; Corn - limited short - term decline; Imported soybeans - shock, different expectations for different contracts; Pulp - wait - and - see for single - side, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread; Logs - shock - weak [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Fuel oil - bearish; Bitumen - affected by multiple factors; Natural rubber - supported by raw material cost; BR rubber - shock, pay attention to export; PTA - affected by multiple factors; Ethylene glycol - price decline; Short - fiber - follow cost; Styrene - narrow - range shock; PP - limited upward space; PE - shock; Urea - shock; Propylene - shock; PVC - bearish; Caustic soda - affected by multiple factors; LPG - shock [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation of the central economic work conference, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - Different non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and overseas policies, showing different price trends [1] - Black metals are affected by factors such as macro - drive, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, with prices mainly in a shock state [1] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather, and their prices show different trends and need to pay attention to different influencing factors [1] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, with complex price trends [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, be vigilant against post - policy adjustment, but in the long term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and winning probabilities [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. Pay attention to low - level layout opportunities for long positions [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range shock due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating risk preference [1] - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although some short - positions leave the market and the price rebounds, the upward drive is limited [1] - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro - benefits, the fundamentals improve, the cost center moves up, and it is expected to be shock - strong in the short term. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and domestic policies [1] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as overseas policies and high global inventory, the price may be shock - weak in the short term. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is one of surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by factors such as raw - material prices, inventory, and production reduction of steel mills, the futures price fluctuates. Short - term operation is recommended, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] - **Tin**: Bullish in the long - term due to the tense situation in the Congo. Pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities during corrections [1] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a shock state in the short - term, while platinum has upward potential in the short - term and long - term long - position allocation is recommended. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest and decreased production in the southwest, as well as reduced production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: In the medium - long term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation increases marginally, and large manufacturers have strong price - support and low delivery willingness. The number of delivery brands increases [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the peak season of new - energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, increased supply - side resumption, and pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In December, macro - drive strengthens, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. Do not chase high for single - side positions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicomanganese**: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and inventory accumulates, putting pressure on prices [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply - demand provides support, and the valuation is low. However, short - term sentiment dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Single - side positions should be treated with a short - term approach, and long - term positions should wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the MPOB report and German policies, wait - and - see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to rebound due to the news of returned imported non - genetically modified rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is "supported, no drive". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The bearish consensus is strong, and pay attention to the cost support below [1] - **Corn**: Short - term decline is limited, and pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and inventory changes [1] - **Imported Soybeans**: Domestic auction results are positive for near - month and positive - spread positions. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations, single - side wait - and - see, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread for month - spread [1] - **Logs**: Affected by external quotes and spot - price declines, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to be shock - weak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1] - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by raw - material cost, the basis is low, and the mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1] - **BR Rubber**: Transaction improves, but high -开工 and high - inventory are still pressures. Pay attention to synthetic - rubber exports [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber**: Affected by factors such as gasoline cracking profit, PX cost, and new - device production [1] - **Styrene**: Mainly in a narrow - range shock, affected by export discussions and polymer - market sales [1] - **PP, PE**: Limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, with support below [1] - **Urea**: High - level operation of production, increased supply, and weak downstream demand [2] - **Propylene**: High - level cost support, but downstream improvement is less than expected [2] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases, and demand weakens [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production, production load, and inventory [2] - **LPG**: International oil and gas return to the fundamental - relaxation logic, and the price is in a range - shock state [2]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of dividend-themed funds has significantly accelerated in the second half of the year, driven by favorable policies and market conditions, leading to a renewed interest in high-dividend assets [1][5]. Fund Issuance Growth - In the first half of the year, 26 dividend-themed funds were issued, raising a total of 9.398 billion yuan, with the largest single fund size being 1 billion yuan and a median size of 300 million yuan. By December 9, the number of funds issued in the second half had increased to 37, with a total size of 20.444 billion yuan, marking a more than double growth compared to the first half [3][4]. - The maximum fundraising size for a single product in the second half reached 1.767 billion yuan, and the median size rose to 400 million yuan, indicating a significant increase in issuance enthusiasm [3]. Market Structure and Focus - The market has seen a notable increase in the issuance of Hong Kong dividend funds, with 12 new products launched in the second half, surpassing the first half's figures. The leading fund, "浦银安盛港股通央企红利," raised 1.289 billion yuan [3][4]. - There has also been a substantial expansion in low-volatility dividend products, with 19 new products launched, covering various indices such as the 中证800红利低波动指数 and 沪深300红利低波动指数 [3]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" and stable growth policies have positively influenced market sentiment, improving profit expectations for related industries. The regulatory emphasis on cash dividends has enhanced the certainty of high-dividend assets, making them more attractive in a volatile market [1][6]. - Institutional demand for stable cash flows has increased, particularly among long-term funds like insurance and pension funds, which have shown a preference for high-dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [7]. ETF Expansion - The rapid growth of dividend ETFs has been notable, with their scale expanding from 50 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to nearly 200 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting the evolving structure of the dividend strategy [8].

现货市场缺乏采买资金认可，铜价高位略显无力 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月09日，SHFE主力合约价格小幅回落至91740元/吨， 较前一交易日跌幅0.97%。基差整体走弱，SMM升水铜贴水从2025-12-08的 210元降至160元，平水铜从65元降至45元，湿法铜从-5元降至-15元； LME(0-3)基差在2025-12-08为8.19美元/吨，较2025-12-03的23.05美元/吨 显著下滑。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓在2025-12-08小幅扩大，增加449手至342321手；但 成交情绪偏弱，SMM沪铜快讯显示日内出货情绪抬升导致成交价格走跌，采 购情绪继续走跌，洋山铜溢价资讯提及市场成交冷清，少量成交集中于35- 45美元/吨。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给有所增强，LME在2025-12-08新增中国弘盛铜业"DJ-HS"阴 极铜注册品牌，可能提升全球流通量；中铁资源鹿鸣矿业截至2025-12-05 铜金属量完成年度计划137.71%，产量超预期；滇中有色近日降低渣选尾矿 含铜至0.162%，提高回收效率；鑫海高导技术突破提升铜导体生产效率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of understanding the investment logic and focus areas for 2026, particularly in the context of the technology sector, cyclical industries, and structural transformations [1][6] - The investment strategy meeting highlighted the need for a systematic approach to research and investment, aiming to convert systematic capabilities into sustainable value for investors [1][6] - The fixed income investment manager noted the increasing difficulty of achieving stable high returns in a low-interest-rate environment, which is a central goal of "fixed income plus" strategies [1][6] Group 2 - The recent stock market rally has been primarily driven by valuation expansion, with technology expected to be the main strategic focus for the upcoming year [2][7] - Three key lines of inquiry for identifying quality assets include: the anticipated dominance of technology in the market, the global expansion of outstanding Chinese companies, and opportunities arising from high prosperity sectors and potential reversals in cyclical industries [2][7] - High prosperity sectors to watch include computer equipment, marine equipment, batteries, and power grid equipment, while cyclical reversals may be found in sub-industries within chemicals, new energy, and consumption [2][7] Group 3 - Different asset classes present varying investment opportunities, with pure debt assets likely to remain in a low-interest-rate environment and limited upside potential [3][8] - Stock assets are expected to experience increased volatility, with limited valuation uplift and a positive performance driven by earnings [3][8] - Convertible bonds are viewed as overvalued, with a focus on structural opportunities and swing trading as key strategies moving forward [3][8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, with a cumulative CPI of 0.0% from January to November[1] - The year-on-year CPI growth rate expanded by 0.5 percentage points, primarily due to a significant increase in vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% year-on-year, contributing 0.49 percentage points to the CPI increase[5] - The core CPI remained at 1.2%, the highest level of the year, driven by a surge in international gold prices, which led to a 58.4% year-on-year increase in domestic gold jewelry prices[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, a slight increase in the decline compared to the previous month, with a cumulative PPI decline of 2.7% from January to November[1] - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month, influenced by seasonal demand increases and rising prices in the coal and non-ferrous metal sectors[8] - The overall industrial product market remains weak, with a "strong supply and weak demand" situation persisting, indicating limited upward price movement for industrial goods[11]

Economic Overview - China's economy is experiencing fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, but there is optimism for stabilization in November with coordinated policies [1][2] - Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence in achieving economic and social development goals, highlighting industrial upgrades and large-scale market demand as key growth drivers [1] Industrial Production - The forecast for November's industrial value-added growth is 5.0%, slightly up from 4.9% in October, indicating a potential recovery in industrial production [3][4] - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2 in November, reflecting a slight increase in market confidence, although it remains below the growth threshold [3][4] Consumer Spending - The predicted year-on-year growth for retail sales in November is 3.09%, an increase from 2.9% in October, supported by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [5][6] - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% increase in online sales compared to last year, indicating a positive impact on consumer spending [6] Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for fixed asset investment growth in November is -2.1%, a decline from -1.7% in October, reflecting ongoing challenges in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [8][9] - New policy financial tools have been introduced to support investments in key sectors, including digital economy and infrastructure, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated to over 2,300 projects [9][10] Policy Measures - The government is implementing various policies to stabilize investment, including the expansion of infrastructure REITs, which aim to attract private investment into public projects [10] - Recent meetings have emphasized the importance of strategic planning and collaboration across departments to enhance investment in critical areas [10]

12月8日，海关总署发布的数据显示，以美元计价，11月，我国出口额同比增长5.9%，比10月加快7.0个 百分点，超出市场预期；进口额同比增长1.9%，增速比10月加快0.9个百分点。 11月出口继续呈现"东方不亮西方亮"特征。东方金诚数据显示，11月中国对美国出口同比下降28.6%， 降幅较上月扩大3.4个百分点；但中国对发达经济体中的欧盟、日本、韩国出口同比分别增长14.8%、 4.3%、1.9%，增速分别较上月大幅加快13.9个、10.0个、15.0个百分点。 数据显示，当月集成电路和汽车出口额分别同比增长34.2%和53.0%，增速分别较上月加快18.9个和7.2 个百分点。"以上两类商品出口加快，是11月机电产品和高技术产品出口较快增长的主要原因，这有效 抵消了当月箱包、玩具、服装等传统劳动密集型商品出口下滑带来的影响。"冯琳表示，预计短期内芯 片及汽车出口有望继续保持高增势头。 另外，数据显示，11月我国对"一带一路"共建经济体整体出口同比增长10.5%，增速较上月加快7.8个百 分点。冯琳认为，这主要是在上年同期基数走低下，当月对非洲、拉丁美洲出口增速显著加快带动的结 果。 总体上看，冯琳表示： ...