Report Summary Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias, and the yield curve steepened and shifted downward. Despite the rise in the stock market and commodity prices and better-than-expected July trade data suppressing market sentiment, the bond market was supported by loose liquidity and the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements. The long - term yields declined overall, with the short - term yields falling more than the long - term ones [2]. - This week, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The better - than - expected July trade data shows export resilience, but low PPI and CPI data reflect insufficient aggregate demand. The upcoming July financial data is likely to show that the credit volume will not exceed expectations and the structure may be poor. The central bank still has a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, so the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. However, the "anti - involution" policy has improved market expectations and relieved some downward pressure on PPI. The recent good performance of the stock and commodity markets may continue to boost market risk appetite, attracting some funds out of the bond market and suppressing the bond market. Overall, the bond market is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to range between 1.65% - 1.75% [2]. Market Review Last Week Secondary Market - The bond market was strongly oscillating last week, and long - term bond yields continued to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures' main contract rose 0.18% in the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.68bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 2.28bp, with the term spread widening [3]. - On August 4, affected by the new VAT policy, the bond market continued to decline in the morning but was pressured and weakened in the afternoon due to the rebound of the stock and commodity markets. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.24bp [3]. - On August 5, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.22bp [3]. - On August 6, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and rumors of large banks buying 7 - 8Y old bonds, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.62bp [3]. - On August 7, the better - than - expected July trade data and the rising stock market pressured the bond market, but the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements in the afternoon released a positive signal, and the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.05bp [3]. - On August 8, the stock market continued to rise, but the bond market oscillated with a positive bias supported by loose liquidity. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.03bp [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 62 interest - rate bonds were issued, 30 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 808.5 billion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was 595.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. Important Events Last Week - July's foreign trade data exceeded expectations. In July 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points higher than in June. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, 3.0 percentage points higher than in June. The increase in exports was mainly due to the low base in the same period last year and the "rush - to - export" and "re - export" effects caused by the changing US tariff policy. The increase in imports was due to the rebound of international commodity prices and the demand for imports in the export process [14]. - July's CPI and PPI continued to operate at a low level. In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the high base of vegetable and pork prices in the same period last year. PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with a 0.2 - percentage - point decline month - on - month, mainly due to the uncertainty in international trade, the decline in prices of some major export industrial products, and the impact of the real - estate market and electricity prices. However, the "anti - involution" policy improved the prices of domestic - dominated industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium - battery, alleviating the decline of PPI [14][15]. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants and the daily average molten - iron output decreased. The semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week [16]. - On the demand side, the BDI index rebounded slightly, while the CCFI continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [16]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated and decreased slightly, while most commodity prices rose. Rebar and copper prices increased, and crude - oil prices declined [16]. Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [27]. - The half - year national - share direct - discount rate decreased, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions continued to increase. The R007 and DR007 both increased slightly, and the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward. The inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased slightly [28][29][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the bond industry is not mentioned in the report Group 2 - The core view of the report is that there are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. The positive factors are the continuous loosening of the capital market and the increasing expectation of the overseas Fed's interest rate cut. The negative factors are the rising inflation expectation and the phased recovery of capital interest rates. The market is cautious about the VAT benefits and regards them as short - term factors and should not be overly optimistic [3] Group 3 Market Factors - Positive factors include the continuous loosening of the capital market, rising treasury bond futures prices, falling yields, and increasing overseas Fed's interest rate cut expectation, which support the domestic bond market and boost the overall atmosphere [3] - Negative factors include the rising inflation expectation caused by policy - stimulated commodity price increases and the phased recovery of capital interest rates combined with high - level wealth management leverage, leading to partial profit - taking behavior [3] Transaction Advice - The market is cautious about the VAT benefits and considers them as short - term factors, not suitable for excessive optimism [3] Data Presentation - The report presents the data of treasury bond yields, capital interest rates, treasury bond term spreads, treasury bond futures positions, trading volumes, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, covering 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds [4][5][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.04%报119.330元，10年期主力合约持平于108.555元，5年 期主力合约涨0.02%报105.775元，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.370元。银行间主要利率债收益率多数 下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行0.05bp，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.1bp， 10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行0.7bp，5年期国开债"25国开08"收益率下行0.75bp。 【资金面】 央行公告称，央行公告称，8月6日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1385亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作 利率1.40%，投标量1385亿元，中标量1385亿元。数据显示，当日3090亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单 日净回笼1705亿元。资金面方面，央行公开市场连续净回笼，依然无碍银行间市场资金面宽松局面，隔 夜回购利率微升但仍在1.31%低点附近徘徊。 【操作建议】 债券征税新规对市场扰动淡化，期债在资金面维持宽松的支撑下多数震荡收涨。目前预计8月上旬：一 是政治局会议落地，中美谈判结果也暂时落定，国内外政策利空出尽，二是月初资金面预期转松 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, driven by declining interest rates, population influx, and favorable policies, with experts predicting continued high transaction activity in the future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the second quarter of this year, both transaction volume and prices in the Hong Kong real estate market have gradually stabilized, with July seeing a 37.1% year-on-year increase in all types of property sales contracts registered [2]. - The number of residential property sales contracts registered in July reached 5,766, marking a 54.8% year-on-year increase [2]. - The private residential price index showed a slight monthly increase of 0.03% in June, marking three consecutive months of growth, which reduced the year-to-date price decline to 0.86% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The decline in interest rates has significantly lowered mortgage costs, with current mortgage rates around 2%, thus supporting housing demand [2]. - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has dropped significantly since May, with the one-month HIBOR reported at 1.73% as of August 4 [2]. Group 3: Talent Influx and Rental Demand - The introduction of talent attraction programs has led to an influx of over 75,000 high-end talents and their families into Hong Kong by the end of 2024, boosting rental and purchasing demand [3]. - The rental index for private residential properties increased by approximately 0.31% month-on-month in June, marking a continuous rise for seven months, with a cumulative increase of 1.61% in the first half of the year [3]. Group 4: Mainland Buyers - The relaxation of property purchase restrictions has made it easier for mainland buyers to participate in the Hong Kong real estate market, with a notable increase in their activity [4]. - In June, mainland buyers registered 1,237 transactions in the Hong Kong residential market, representing a month-on-month increase of approximately 21.9%, with transaction amounts reaching around HKD 11 billion, up about 14.4% [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The positive fundamentals of Hong Kong's economy are expected to continue supporting the stabilization of the real estate market [5]. - Factors such as favorable stock market conditions, sustained low HIBOR, and the upcoming launch of multiple new developments are anticipated to maintain strong transaction momentum in the primary market [5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise in July, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both increasing by over 2.8%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect rising by 4.7% [1] - There has been a resonance inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Hong Kong stock market this year, leading to a sustained liquidity environment [1] - According to Guosen Securities, Hong Kong stocks remain in a reasonable valuation range compared to A-shares, with a focus on five key investment directions: undervalued internet and AI leaders, innovative pharmaceuticals, resources and commodities benefiting from anti-involution, strong fundamentals in new consumption, and improving performance in non-bank financial institutions [1][2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF (513120) has seen a year-to-date return exceeding 100% as of July 29, with its latest scale surpassing 16 billion yuan, making it the largest innovative pharmaceutical ETF in the market [2] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) tracks the Hang Seng Consumption Index, including 50 leading Hong Kong consumer stocks, and offers a balanced distribution that aligns with the consumption trends of Generation Z [2] - The Hong Kong Non-Bank Financial ETF (513750) is the only ETF tracking the Hong Kong non-bank financial index, with significant holdings in major insurance companies and has seen continuous net inflows, reaching a scale of 12.5 billion yuan and a year-to-date return of over 40% [2] Group 3 - Fund professionals believe that the four ETFs covering technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and non-bank financial sectors provide investors with a convenient tool for a diversified exposure to Hong Kong stock opportunities [3] - Institutional analysis highlights the long-term allocation value of the Hong Kong technology and pharmaceutical sectors, especially with the deepening of anti-involution policies and rising global inflation expectations [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - Due to weak US employment data and strong Fed rate - cut signals, market risk appetite increases, the dollar index drops, and precious metals oscillate and stabilize. Silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - The US - India tariff negotiation continues, the dollar index weakens, which is positive for gold. However, the probability of gold exceeding the previous high is low, and it will be in a mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. - The coke market is still in a state of tight supply and demand after five rounds of price hikes. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - The steel market returns to fundamentals. Due to high - temperature and rainy weather, demand is weak. Steel mills have good profits, and inventory reduction is under pressure. Steel prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. - Iron ore supply and demand are stable, which strongly supports the price. It is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - The pig market has a strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - The palm oil market has a weak fundamental, but there is little room for a sharp downward movement in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The rapeseed meal price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - The short - fiber market has a weak fundamental, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - OPEC+ maintains a production - increase stance, but the production increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. - The overall supply and demand of rubber are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Product Precious Metals - **Silver**: US employment data is weak, Fed officials signal rate cuts, the dollar index drops, and silver is bullish in oscillation [1]. - **Gold**: US - India tariff negotiation affects the dollar index, and gold is in mid - term high - level oscillation with a slightly bearish trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production increase, but the actual increase is far from the target. The short - term trend is weak [7]. Industrial Metals - **Coke**: After five rounds of price hikes, the market is in tight supply - demand, and it will oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are stable, and it is expected to be strong in short - term oscillation [4]. - **Steel**: The market returns to fundamentals, demand is weak, and prices may adjust narrowly in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline more than rise in the short - term [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental is weak, and there is little short - term downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price will stabilize after a decline and continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10]. - **LLDPE**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The money market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds, but the stock market rebounds, which is negative for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw logic remains the main logic [3]. - **Rubber**: The overall supply and demand are expected to be tight throughout the year. It will oscillate at a low level in the short - term [8]. - **Short - fiber**: The fundamental is weak, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [6].

Group 1: Company Insights - The report indicates that the performance bottom is showing for Nepean Mining Machinery, with a forecasted net profit of 15 million to 22.5 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a decline of 73% to 82% year-on-year [3][4] - Several unconventional factors are impacting the company's performance, including the absence of EPC project revenue in H1 2025, which was 200 million yuan in H1 2024, leading to a significant drop in net profit [3][4] - The company has a strong order backlog of 487 million yuan as of June 30, 2025, which is a 39.26% increase from the end of 2024, indicating a positive growth trend [4][5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The heavy truck market saw a year-on-year sales increase of approximately 42% in July 2025, with wholesale sales reaching about 83,000 units [13] - The launch of new electric vehicles, such as the Li Auto i8 and the NIO L90, is expected to stimulate market interest and sales in the automotive sector [14][15] - The report highlights a shift in the pig farming policy towards regulation, suggesting a long-term revaluation opportunity for the sector, with top pig farming companies likely to benefit [20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Alacran copper-silver mine project is projected to significantly enhance the company's growth potential, with an estimated annual processing capacity of 6.1 million tons and expected production of 23,800 tons of copper, 38,600 ounces of gold, and 370,000 ounces of silver [6] - The project has a net present value (NPV) of 360 million USD and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 23.8%, with a payback period of approximately 3 years [6] - The report recommends investment in leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly those positioned for high-end market growth, such as Li Auto, Geely, and BYD [17]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 789.3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation and a 400 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on July 25, resulting in a net injection of 801.8 billion yuan into the market [1] - For the week, the PBOC executed a total of 1.6563 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan in MLF operations, leading to a net injection of 129.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing operations [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) fell by over 11 basis points, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor rates increased [1][2] Group 2 - The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 11.50 basis points to 1.5200%, while the 7-day Shibor rose by 7.50 basis points to 1.6200%, and the 14-day Shibor increased by 11.30 basis points to 1.7280% [2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight rates decreased, and the 7-day and 14-day rates increased, with the R007 transaction share rising to 14.7% [6] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 13.4 basis points and 14.0 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 rates increased [6] Group 3 - The funding environment was reported to be loose on July 25, with overnight funding rates dropping to around 1.50% by the end of the day [11] - A total of 91 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on July 25, with an actual issuance amount of 74.54 billion yuan [11] - The secondary market for certificates of deposit showed a slight decline in overall yield levels compared to the previous day [12]