周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 中美贸易风波再起，美元高位震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率回落至 4.03%。美元指数涨 1.28%至 98.9，非美货币悉 数贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.12%，欧元跌 1.06%，英镑跌 0.9%，日 元跌 2.52%，瑞郎跌 0.48%，雷亚尔跌 3.44%，新西兰元、澳 元、贬值约 2%，兰特、韩元、比索 泰铢跌超 1%，金价涨 3.4% 至 4018 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 21.66，现货商品指数收 跌，布油跌 2.8%至 64.48 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美国政府在 10 月 1 日正式停摆，两党目前仍然未能就支出达成 一致，15 日军队发薪日成为关键时间节点，随着政府停摆时间 的延长，两党面临的压力都在增加，同时美国 9 月非农就业报 告和首申数据未能如期公布，经济也将受到拖累。中美贸易摩 擦再度升级，中国宣布对稀土出口进行管制后，美国总统特朗 普表示 11 月 1 日起要对中国商品再度加征 100%关税，即将到来 的 APEC 会 ...

美国密歇根大学10日发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值下降，跌至五个月以来低 点。 美国密歇根大学发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值，从9月的55.1降至55，触及5个 月来低点，为连续第三个月下滑。 分析指出，眼下高物价和就业前景低迷仍是美国民众最关心的问题，他们普遍认为短期内情况难以出现 实质性改善。密歇根大学的调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀预期仍维持在4.6％的高位，长期通胀预 期也稳定在3.7％，二者均远高于美联储2％的政策目标。美联储在9月的议息会议纪要中指出，预计关 税上调将推高今年通胀，到2026年还将进一步加剧通胀压力。与此同时，美国就业市场降温态势明显。 同一项调查显示，仍有近半数美国家庭预计明年就业形势将继续恶化。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 ...

（央视财经《天下财经》）美国密歇根大学10日发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值 下降，跌至五个月以来低点。 分析指出，眼下高物价和就业前景低迷仍是美国民众最关心的问题，他们普遍认为短期内情况难以出现 实质性改善。密歇根大学的调查显示，消费者对未来一年通胀预期仍维持在4.6%的高位，长期通胀预 期也稳定在3.7%，二者均远高于美联储2%的政策目标。美联储在9月的议息会议纪要中指出，预计关税 上调将推高今年通胀，到2026年还将进一步加剧通胀压力。与此同时，美国就业市场降温态势明显。同 一项调查显示，仍有近半数美国家庭预计明年就业形势将继续恶化。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：王昕宇 美国密歇根大学发布的调查数据显示，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值，从9月的55.1降至55，触及5个 月来低点，为连续第三个月下滑。 ...

摘要10月11日金价再创历史新高，多个金店金饰价格来到1180元/克附近，2025年10月11日，各大品牌 黄金零售价格大幅上涨，据金投网统计，目前是老庙价格最高，为1183元/克（工费另计），菜百首饰 黄金价格最低，为1110元/克（工费另计），投资金条价格每克933-939元左右，白银价格11.52元/克。 10月11日金价再创历史新高，多个金店金饰价格来到1180元/克附近，2025年10月11日，各大品牌黄金 零售价格大幅上涨，据金投网统计，目前是老庙价格最高，为1183元/克（工费另计），菜百首饰黄金 价格最低，为1110元/克（工费另计），投资金条价格每克933-939元左右，白银价格11.52元/克。 全球经济与政治存在不确定性，且美联储释放鸽派信号，投资者因此将黄金作为避险选择。此外，俄乌 冲突持续等地缘政治风险未消，加之美国政府停摆引发担忧，均支撑了黄金的避险吸引力。 与此同时，各国央行持续购金，黄金ETF也迎来强劲资金流入，这些因素助力黄金延续创纪录涨势，有 望实现连续第八周上涨。 10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.0，略高于54.2的预期，但较9月的55.1小幅下降。消费者预期 ...

今年中国经济总量继续保持稳健增长，尤其是上半年GDP增速明显高于5.3%，超出之前的市场预期。我们认为中长期来看，中国经济仍然具有巨大的增 长潜力。不过短期经济结构分化的现象依然存在，尤其是供给偏强、需求偏弱，数量偏强、价格偏弱，内需还需要进一步提振。而内需端的一个重要拖累 项是房地产，尽管房地产投资、销售占经济比重已经不高，但房地产在居民存量财富配置中的份额仍然很高，而居民消费的资金来源一靠收入，二靠财 富。如果房价出现调整，势必会对总需求构成压制。 关于房地产的趋势和影响，其实海外其他经济体有大量的经验可以参考，我们在2022年就系统的梳理了海外房地产的经验。当然我们也要考虑到中国独特 的制度优势，不能完全照搬海外的经验。但海外的一些教训，我们是可以回避的。那么如何才能稳住房价呢?或者说，当什么变量发生变化的时候，可以 判断房价被稳住了?本文重点就这一问题进行探讨。 租金回报率重要吗? 为了后续阐述的必要，我们先来介绍两个概念：租金回报率和房价租金比。租金回报率衡量的是同样的一套房，如果出租出去每年获得的租金总额，与如 果现在出售出去获得的总房价之比。租金回报率的倒数是房价租金比，衡量的是一套房子出租多少 ...

三是通胀预期。传统的说法是持有黄金是为了对冲通胀，但是事实也正好相反，全球尤其是发达经济体 已经从疫情后长期的通胀中走出来了。 2025年8月美国居民消费价格同比上涨2.92%，并且已经开始了首轮降息，欧洲已经降息多次，有些经 济体长期通缩，只有日本的通胀有所抬头，但仍然在低位，作为不具有收益的黄金资产，怎么可能对冲 通胀呢？ 关于此轮黄金上涨的原因探讨很多，笔者认为决定此轮黄金价格上涨的主要是两点：一是黄金的国际支 付功能，一是美元仍然过度发行，导致全球的权益资产泡沫和黄金泡沫。 地缘政治风险加剧，美元成为武器，在全球范围围堵削弱相关国家的支付通道和支付能力，让持有美元 储备的国家对美元资产的未来产生担忧。最典型的案例就是西方在俄乌战争爆发后没收其美元资产，并 关闭国际支付通道，这让某些国家的央行可能提前抛售美元资产，购入黄金，这是推动黄金价格的核心 力量。 文/冉学东 国际黄金现货价格于10月8日冲破4000美元关口，最高触及4059美元。最近几年黄金凭借强劲动能持续 上涨，屡屡突破历史新高，涨幅令其他资产难以望其项背，但是有一个资产却跟它的走势非常相关，而 且是正相关，那就是美股。尤其是今年以来，在黄金 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index recording their largest single-day drop since April [1][2] - Major technology stocks fell sharply, with Nvidia dropping 4.89%, resulting in a market value loss of $228.7 billion (approximately 163.18 billion RMB) [1][2] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,479.60, down 878.82 points (1.90%) [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 182.60 points (2.71%) to 6,552.51 [2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 820.20 points (3.56%) to 22,204.43 [2] Sector Performance - Semiconductor and cryptocurrency stocks led the declines, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 6.32% [2] - Notable declines included Circle down over 11%, Arm down over 9%, and AMD, Qualcomm, and Coinbase each down over 7% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also saw widespread declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 6.10% [3] - Individual stocks such as Daqo New Energy and Global Data fell over 14% and 13%, respectively [3] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index for October from the University of Michigan was reported at 55, the lowest since May, with a previous value of 55.1 [3][4] - Consumer sentiment regarding personal finances and the business environment improved, but expectations for future finances declined [3] Inflation Expectations - Short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term expectations remained stable at 3.7% [4] Government Layoffs - The U.S. government has begun layoffs as part of a plan to reduce federal government size, with the Department of Education and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) confirming staff reductions [4][5]

Core Insights - The October consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined for the third consecutive month, reflecting growing public concern over the economic outlook amid government shutdown, high inflation expectations, and slowing job growth [1][2] - The current index is significantly lower than levels seen in early 2025 and before the return of former President Trump, nearing lows observed during the inflation peak in 2021 [1] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have slightly decreased from 4.7% in September to 4.6%, still above the current actual inflation rate of 2.9% [1] Economic Context - Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, making changes in consumer confidence a significant indicator of overall economic trends [2] - Historical data shows that government shutdowns, while having limited direct economic impact, often lead to significant declines in consumer confidence [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has entered its 10th day, causing key economic indicators to be suspended, making the Michigan survey a crucial alternative for gauging economic direction [1][2] Political and Monetary Policy Implications - The U.S. economy is currently in a sensitive phase with slowing hiring rates, uncontrolled inflation, and rising recession risks [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that policymakers are attempting to guide the economy through a "challenging situation" during this turbulent period [2] - Analysts warn that if the government shutdown continues and consumer confidence weakens further, it may suppress household spending willingness, posing downward pressure on economic growth [2]

Market Performance - Chinese concept stocks showed overall weak performance, with the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index, Wind Chinese Stocks 100 Index, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index all declining over 2% [2] - The Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index is currently at 4732.44, down 3.06%, while the Wind Chinese Stocks 100 Index is at 3267.28, down 2.96% [3] Futures and Commodities - The FTSE China A50 Index futures experienced a sharp drop, currently down 1.14% [2] - As of the latest update, WTI crude oil fell over 3%, reaching a new low since early May, while Brent crude oil dropped over 2%, currently priced at $63.60 per barrel [5] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, with a previous value of 55.1 and an estimate of 54.2 [6] - Consumer sentiment regarding current personal financial situations and the business environment for the next year has improved, but expectations for future personal finances and current purchasing conditions for durable goods have declined, leading to a net neutral outlook [7] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed an open attitude towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting, citing concerns over a possibly negative employment growth trend [8] - Waller emphasized that the labor market is a key concern and that the decision-making process should remain cautious [8]

Market Overview - On October 10, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 878.82 points (1.9%), the Nasdaq dropping by 820.20 points (3.56%), and the S&P 500 decreasing by 182.60 points (2.71%). This marked the largest single-day drop for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 since April [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks saw widespread declines, with Broadcom down nearly 6%, Tesla falling over 5%, and Amazon dropping close to 5%. Notably, Nvidia's stock price fell to $183.16, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $228.7 billion (approximately 1.63 trillion yuan) [2]. Semiconductor and Cryptocurrency Stocks - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by 6.32%, with significant losses in stocks such as Circle (down over 11%), Arm (down over 9%), and AMD, Qualcomm, and Coinbase each down over 7%. Bitcoin also saw a sharp decline, dropping below $110,000 with a 24-hour decrease of 9.16% [4][5]. Commodity Markets - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.58% to $4,035.5 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 3.15%. In contrast, WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 3.25% [7]. Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October was reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2. The index reflects mixed sentiments regarding personal financial situations and future economic conditions [11].