Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for precious metals due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the military actions between the US and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran's military conflict may impact its production capabilities, particularly in metals where it holds a high global market share, such as strontium (56% of global production) and DRI (24% of global production) [4][5]. - Copper and zinc are identified as critical metals with significant implications for global supply chains, especially in light of potential disruptions in the Middle East [6]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions will enhance the appeal of gold and silver as inflation hedges, with gold prices expected to rise in response to increased demand [3]. - The report also discusses the potential for silver prices to be more volatile due to its dual role as an industrial and financial asset [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report indicates that the ongoing conflict may tighten the global aluminum supply, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could lead to price increases [11][12]. - It highlights that the aluminum market is currently in a state of tight balance, with potential for price support due to supply constraints [11]. New Energy Metals - The report discusses Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting their pricing and availability [15].

债券策略周报 20260301 3 月债市投资策略 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 债市观点及组合策略推荐 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [Table_Author] 分析师 徐亮 执业证书： S0590525110037 邮箱： xliang@glms.com.cn 展望 3 月债市，从利率节奏来看重点关注两个问题：1.中东冲突带来的大类资产 联动情况；2.国内货币政策是否有宽松的迹象。 从当前债券利率定价来看，目前 10 年国债利率略低于 1.8%，市场进一步做多意 愿不强（这一点可以从节后止盈情绪升温导致利率回升看出），不过地缘风险导致 的风险偏好下降确实有较大概率使得近期利率脉冲下行，但也需要观察权益下跌 情况，如果权益下跌后立即企稳，债券利率的下行空间也不大，预计 10 年国债活 跃券低位在 1.75%左右；而后续则需要关注大宗商品是否上涨带来通胀预期进一 步升温，从而带动利率上行。另外，国内债券利率下行的另一个制约在于降息预 期不高，如果两会后市场降息预期有所抬升，则 10 年国债利率有明显的交易机 会。 因此，从利率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

二 五 2026 年 3 月 1 日 二 〇 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场受"沪七条"影响被上方阻力位压制回落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Wind，国泰君安期货研究 市场特征方面，本周国债期货市场呈现长端利率震荡上行、短端相对稳健的特征，收益率曲线呈现阶 段性陡峭化倾向。长端由于节前的快速下行，目前市场存在一定的止 ...

国泰海通研报指出，美国地产企稳或是新一轮通胀的起点，但本轮再通胀的不同之处在于，通胀预期伴 随的是降息预期而非紧缩预期，其代价是更弱的美元。在通胀预期的自我实现与预期强化的循环下， 2026年10年美债利率存在突破4.5%的风险，甚至不排除挑战5%。 ...

中信建投：看好顺周期板块行情 重点看好重资产行业困境反转机会：一是通胀预期升温，PPI持续修复，大宗商品价格上行，利好重资 产企业资产负债表修复；二是化工、建材等行业历经产能出清，叠加反内卷政策控增量、稳价格，行业 盈利修复动力增强；三是一线城市地产逐步企稳，有望带动内需与产业链需求回暖。综合转债估值与行 业逻辑，建议重点关注化工、建材、电力设备板块。 光大证券：碳排放双控转型推动碳成本重估，看好绿电的非电应用 国内从能耗双控向碳排放双控的考核机制转变、欧盟碳关税实质落地，具备低碳或负碳属性的资产（绿 铝、绿氢氨醇、零碳园区等）将获得绿色溢价。综合考虑下游支付溢价能力、替代经济性等因素，航运 燃料绿醇、储氢固碳绿氨、氢冶金领域的非电应用有望受益。 昨日，市场探底回升，三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指盘中一度跌超1%，黄白线分化。沪深两市成交额 2.54万亿。从板块来看，算力硬件方向涨幅居前，PCB、CPO、液冷服务器、算力芯片概念均表现强 势，电力板块走强，燃气轮机概念集体大涨。下跌方面，影视院线、保险、房地产等板块跌幅居前。截 至收盘，沪指跌0.01%，深成指涨0.19%，创业板指跌0.29%。 在今日券商晨会上 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：张剑宇 梁中华 · 投资要点 · 美国地产企稳或是新一轮通胀的起点，但本轮再通胀的不同之处在于，通胀预期伴随的是降息预期而非紧缩预期，其代价是更弱的美元。在通胀预期的自 我实现与预期强化的循环下，2026年10年美债利率存在突破4.5%的风险，甚至不排除挑战5%。 住房负担能力已清晰地展现出改善前景：1）只需抵押贷款利率降至5.6%以下（当前6.1%），或者房价收入比降至3.5（当前3.8），负担能力即能有明显 改善（回到金融危机前的平均水平）；2）住房价格去通胀的同时，收入增长韧性有助于降低房价收入比；3）更即时的改善源于抵押贷款利率的快速下 降，自2025年三季度经济开启修复后，房贷利率因利差收窄而迅速降低，往后看仍有下降空间。 3、去通胀后：供需错配下的房价弹性 疫后高房价压制需求，导致房价跟随供给端进行了一轮去通胀，但在供给不足的总体格局下，房价下探有底，后续大概率跟随需求温和反弹。 次贷危机以来，美国地产行业长期存在供给不足的问题：难买的土地、难招的工人、难建的房子是三大掣肘，土地分区监管导致大城市居民用地结构性短 缺，建筑工人数量永久性收缩、以及疫情和关税 ...

委《银行与商业报》等媒体2月10日报道，消息人士透露，本周委央行将向 市场投放近3亿美元外汇，以稳定本币玻利瓦尔汇率和通胀预期。此系委央行 今年第3次向市场投放美元，总额已达8亿美元。 （原标题：委央行将向市场投放近3亿美元外汇） ...

Group 1: Macro Overview - U.S. Treasury yields are a core variable in the global asset pricing system, influencing asset valuations and capital flows[2] - Understanding U.S. Treasury yields is essential for grasping global asset price linkages and cyclical evolution[2] Group 2: Four-Factor Framework - The report constructs a "four-factor" framework to decode U.S. Treasury yields, comprising expected real interest rates, inflation expectations, inflation risk premium, and actual risk premium[3][5] - The expected 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to fluctuate around 4.1% in 2026, with a likely "steepening" curve characterized by a slow decline in short-term rates and high volatility in long-term rates[3][11] Group 3: Key Insights on Yield Dynamics - The yield curve is expected to reflect a "twist steepening" if the new Fed Chair, Warsh, becomes more politicized, potentially leading to faster-than-expected rate cuts[3][11] - Conversely, if Warsh emphasizes Fed independence, rate cuts may be slower and shallower, impacting the yield curve differently[3][11] Group 4: Risk Factors - Key risks include fiscal and supply shocks that could elevate the term premium, as well as political and policy uncertainties that may disrupt market pricing[12] - The report emphasizes that managing curve shape and exposure to high term premiums is more critical than betting on specific interest rate levels in 2026[12]

东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞认为，这主要源于美国关税风波再起、贸易政策不确定性加剧，以 及美国与伊朗地缘政治风险升级带来的避险需求集中爆发，多重因素共同推动金价大幅上扬。 金鹏期货总经理喻猛国表示："美国最高法院裁定此前关税违法，本质上是政策与法律之间的冲突，直 接加剧了市场对美国财政状况及美元信用的担忧。避险情绪升温后，黄金、白银等贵金属往往走强。虽 然美国又推出了新关税，但其法律基础同样存在不确定性，政策反复只会进一步抬升不确定性。再加上 可能涉及上千亿美元关税退款，也会推升通胀预期，对黄金这类兼具抗通胀与避险属性的资产构成明显 利好，因此金银有望重新回到上升趋势。" 此次裁决还引发了规模可观的税收退款问题。宾夕法尼亚大学相关预测模型经济学家估算，超过1750亿 美元的关税收入面临退款风险。 美国一系列关税政策变动，引发全球市场高度关注。 美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）日前表示，将自美国东部时间2月24日起停止征收依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）开征的关税。此前，2月20日，美国最高法院裁定，依据IEEPA加征的"对等关税"及 芬太尼关税违法。 但同样在2月20日，美国总统特朗普在最高法院裁 ...