熊园、穆仁文（熊园 系国盛证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 事件：2025年10月新增人民币贷款2200亿，前值1.29万亿，预期4600亿，去年同期5000亿；新增社融8150亿，前值3.53万亿，预期1.53万亿，去年同期1.41 万亿；存量社融增速8.5%，前值8.7%；M2同比8.2%，预期8%，前值8.4%；M1同比6.2%，预期6.6%，前值7.2%。 核心观点：10月新增信贷、社融规模均低于预期，也低于季节性。结构上，居民部门再度转为"去杠杆"，短贷、中长期贷款同比均少增；企业部门信贷同 比转为多增，但票据冲量是主要贡献，政策性金融工具对企业信用扩张拉动效果暂未显现；政府债券对社融拖累明显，后续地方政府债券结存限额盘活 后，可能有所好转。整体看，需求不足的问题仍然突出。往后看，维持我们年度策略报告（《乘势而上—2026年经济与资产展望》）的观点：货币宽松还 是大方向，降准降息可期、节奏上"相机抉择"（我们预计2026年一季度之前大概率会降，旨在扭转经济下行态势、配合"十五五"抢开局），紧盯基本面的 变化。 1、整体看，新增信贷、社融规模均低于预期、也低于季节性，结构上也未有好转，居民 ...

Group 1 - The probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement cut is low in the current economic cycle, with the central bank likely to use a combination of liquidity management tools instead of solely relying on reserve cuts [1] - The mechanism for creating base currency has shifted from passive foreign exchange reserve injection to active central bank injection, indicating limited future potential for reserve increases [1] - Reserve cuts are viewed as a scarce tool for releasing medium to long-term liquidity, making it a valuable option compared to short-term policy rate tools [1] Group 2 - The window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market typically pricing in expectations of monetary easing in advance [1] - It is suggested to seize opportunities before the implementation of interest rate cuts rather than speculating on the timing of the cuts, with expectations for the 10Y government bond yield to decline to 1.65%-1.7% [1] Group 3 - As of November 12, 2025, the active bond ETF for 5-10 year government bonds has seen a 0.02% increase, with a cumulative increase of 3.21% over the past year [2] - The latest size of the 5-10 year government bond ETF reached 1.656 billion, marking a six-month high, with recent inflows balancing out [3] - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has shown a net value increase of 21.99% over the past five years, ranking in the top 16.57% among index bond funds [3] Group 4 - The maximum drawdown for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past six months is 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.46% [4] - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5 - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month is 0.024%, closely tracking the index of active government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years [6]

Market Overview - On November 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.13%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.58%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.39%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.85% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 12 were home appliances (+1.22%), comprehensive (+1.05%), textiles and apparel (+0.87%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.84%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (+0.61%). The worst-performing sectors included electric power equipment (-2.1%), machinery (-1.23%), computers (-1.04%), defense and military (-0.87%), and automobiles (-0.81%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 12 was 19,648.13 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.286 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Research - The report anticipates a decreased probability of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, with more significant easing policies likely reserved for early 2026 to support a stable economic start for the year [5] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some teams still expecting rate cuts in the fourth quarter [5] - The central bank's third-quarter report emphasizes a shift from quantity to price, and the resumption of government bond trading operations in October [5] Machinery Equipment Sector Strategy - The outlook for the machinery equipment sector is optimistic regarding the U.S. market, cautious about Europe, and focused on emerging markets [6] - For the U.S. market, reduced uncertainty around tariff policies, combined with interest rate cuts and tax reductions, is expected to support demand, while small and medium enterprises are seeing improved profitability [7] - In Europe, energy security-related demand is anticipated to boost economic activity, although recovery remains uncertain due to fiscal constraints [7] - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from stable exchange rates and orderly interest rate reductions, with some countries absorbing excess capacity and others experiencing continued urbanization and industrialization [7] - The report highlights a shift in focus for 2026's machinery export chain towards industry prosperity and micro-operational quality, seeking beneficiaries of recovery and those who can navigate trade changes [6][7]

Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicates that a slight decline in loan growth is reasonable, reflecting changes in the financial supply side structure, with M2 growth potentially peaking at 8.8% in August and expected to decline to 8.0% in the fourth quarter [3][6][12] - The probability of short-term reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions remains low, as the current financial dilemma is attributed to a lack of borrowers rather than lenders, suggesting that any released funds may not effectively stimulate the real economy [3][8][18] Summary by Sections Monetary Aggregate Guidance - The PBOC notes that with the rapid development of financial markets, the structure of social financing has changed significantly, leading to a natural decline in total financial growth rates [5][11] - Loan growth has shifted towards supply-side financing rather than demand-side, which may help improve supply-demand balance despite impacting M2 growth [5][11] - M2 growth has increased from 7.3% in December 2024 to 8.4% in September 2025, but is expected to decline to 8.0% in the fourth quarter [6][12] Monetary Policy Guidance - The PBOC emphasizes the need for an appropriately loose monetary policy, which is characterized by ample liquidity and the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose financing conditions [7][16] - The increase in excess reserves does not necessarily lead to improved total liquidity, as the effectiveness of monetary creation is influenced by the demand for financing in the real economy [17] - The absence of the phrase "preventing fund circulation" in the latest report suggests a more favorable view of the short-term bond market [17][18]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank maintains a stance of "appropriate monetary easing" and emphasizes the need for consistency in macro policies[1] - The report highlights the importance of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in monetary policy[5] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in September was 3.24%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, with corporate loans at 3.14% and personal housing loans unchanged at 3.06%[6] Global Economic Concerns - The central bank expresses ongoing concerns about global economic growth, citing insufficient momentum and the impact of tariff policies on certain economies[2] - Geopolitical conflicts are identified as potential risks to economic and financial stability[2] - The report indicates a decrease in concerns regarding global inflation, with a noted divergence in inflation trends among major economies[4] Domestic Economic Outlook - The central bank is optimistic about domestic economic performance, citing strong production supply, released consumption potential, and proactive macro policies as key support factors[3] - The report stresses the need for a development model driven by domestic demand and consumption[3] - The central bank acknowledges the complex and uncertain environment for domestic development, urging confidence and strategic focus[3]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicates that a slight decline in loan growth is reasonable, reflecting changes in the financial supply side structure[2] - As of September 2025, the M2 year-on-year growth rate is projected to decline from 8.4% to 8.0% in Q4, with August's peak at 8.8% likely being the highest for the next six months[4] - The current loan growth slowdown is expected to impact the overall liquidity of enterprises and non-bank institutions, necessitating observation of the sustainability of household deposit shifts[4] Group 2: Economic Context and Projections - The total RMB loan balance has reached CNY 270 trillion, while the social financing scale stands at CNY 437 trillion, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development[8] - The PBOC's monetary policy remains supportive, with M2 growth at 8.4% and social financing growth at 8.7%, aligning with the economic growth target of 5%[13] - The decline in loan growth is attributed to factors such as local government bond issuance and the reduction in real estate loans, which have not been compensated by growth in light-asset industries[8] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - The likelihood of short-term interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions is deemed low, as the primary issue is the lack of borrowers rather than lenders[5] - The PBOC's focus on maintaining liquidity may lead to funds being diverted from real economic activities to financial markets, especially if fiscal measures do not stimulate real investment returns[5] - Risks include potential unexpected changes in overseas monetary policies and domestic monetary policy adjustments[6]

在宏观政策层面，明明认为2026年中国财政政策将更加积极，赤字率或将继续维持在4%左右，专项债 额度有望提升并向项目建设倾斜；货币政策方面，降准降息空间依然存在，结构性货币工具将持续发 力，央行继续进行国债买卖。宏观政策层面对经济的支持力度仍将延续。 明明认为，中美经济周期或均呈先低后高走势，全球经济格局有望迎来再平衡阶段。对于美国而言，就 业市场虽显韧性，但GDP增长结构性问题突出，财政赤字高企，长期国债利率下行受限，而短端利率下 行确定性较强，通胀与经济走弱交织使美联储降息节奏趋于谨慎。 从大类资产配置角度，明明判断，全球宏观环境整体偏宽松，债市方面，国债利率或将先下后上，需要 关注两阶段主导因素的变化；外汇方面，人民币汇率有望温和升值；商品方面，黄金作为配置资产的长 期价值仍具吸引力。 责编:李文玉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 【大河财立方消息】11月11日，中信证券2026年资本市场年会在深圳开幕，多名分析师发表2026年宏观 与政策展望与投资策略。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，中国经济有望延续波动中复苏的态势。明明表示，预计2025年中国经 济将实现5.0%左右的增长目标，2026年将保持在4 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of ensuring liquidity is abundant, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - Analysts expect further monetary policy easing, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to stabilize the macroeconomic environment [1][2] Group 2 - The report indicates that promoting a reasonable rebound in prices is a key consideration for monetary policy, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the rate of decline has narrowed for three consecutive months [3] - The PBOC stresses the need for macro policies to work together to promote a virtuous cycle of supply and demand in the real economy [3] Group 3 - The PBOC aims to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates, while also enhancing the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [4] - The report emphasizes the dual function of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, supporting key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of -0.1%[8] - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[11] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately -0.5 percentage points to the CPI, while energy prices fell by 2.4%, impacting the CPI by about -0.2 percentage points[11] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first rise in 2025[8] - The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by low base effects and "anti-involution" measures[11] - In October, 30 sub-industries saw PPI month-on-month declines, with 17 remaining unchanged from the previous month[11] Group 3: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to reach 2% year-on-year by year-end, while PPI is anticipated to turn positive, contingent on demand-side policy support[11] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an equivalent amount in government bond limits is expected to support short-term CPI and PPI recovery[11] - Domestic demand remains weak, as indicated by CPI being below 1% for 32 consecutive months and PPI being negative for 37 months[11]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's OMO net injection was 1.2008 trillion yuan, and MLF net injection was 200 billion yuan this week[7] - DR001 and DR007 both reached their lowest averages of the year in October, with DR001 at 1.32% and DR007 at 1.46%[25] - The interest rate spread between DR001 and OMO hit a new low since March 2024, while the spread between DR007 and OMO reached a new low since August 2023[22] Group 2: Market Trends and Institutional Behavior - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 1.12 trillion yuan to 6.7 trillion yuan compared to last week[16] - Non-bank rigid financing increased significantly, with wealth management and money market funds seeing substantial rises[16] - The funding gap index adjusted for seasonality rose early in the week but fell midweek, ending at -1843, which is higher than last week's -4056 but still low for the month-end[16] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The central bank's governor indicated that the current funding rates are within a framework of loose monetary policy, with DR001 having a theoretical lower limit of 1.2% and a remaining space of 10 basis points[26] - The resumption of government bond purchases suggests that monetary easing is still necessary to support the economy, indicating that the interest rate cut cycle is not over[30] - Risks include potential monetary policy actions not meeting expectations and unexpected fluctuations in the funding environment[16]