1. 11月21日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指 期货涨跌互现。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.14%，标普期货涨 0.08%，纳指期货跌0.12%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数齐跌。欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.14%，英国富 时100指数跌0.35%，法国CAC40指数跌0.3%，德国DAX30指数跌0.84%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌 1.51%，报58.11美元/桶。布伦特原油跌1.26%，报62.58美元/桶。纽交所 黄金跌0.39%，报4044.1美元/ 盎司。 市场消息 1、美联储威廉姆斯表示仍认为近期存在降息空间。 2、瑞士央行行长施莱格尔将于 20:40发表讲话。 3、白宫驳斥特朗普内阁"大清洗"报道，称相关内容为"瞎编引流"。 4、欧洲股市波动 率指数升至5月以来最高水平。 5、印度卢比兑美元汇率跌至历史新低，报89.1613。6、世界 钢铁协会 数据显示，10月全球粗钢产量同比下降5.9%。 7、欧洲央行行长拉加德表示欧盟若降低内部贸易壁垒， 可通过内部贸易增长抵消美国关税对经济增长的影响。8、欧洲芯片股开盘普跌，ASML、ASMI、 BESI、意法 半导体跌幅在3%至5%之间。 个股消息 ...

"我的评估是，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通胀面临的上行风险有所减 弱，"威廉姆斯在演讲中说。"在没有任何证据表明关税产生第二轮效应的情况下，潜在通胀继续呈下降 趋势。" 威廉姆斯表示，贸易关税可能对当前的通胀率贡献了约0.5到0.75个百分点，但他补充说，他并不认为关 税会引发任何第二轮效应或其他对价格的溢出效应。 美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场疲软，他认为美联储近期仍有空间再次 降息。 在计划于本周五在智利圣地亚哥发表的演讲稿中，威廉姆斯表示，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通 胀的上行风险有所缓解。 "我认为货币政策处于适度限制性状态，尽管程度不及我们近期采取行动之前，"他说。"因此，我仍然 认为近期有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，以使政策立场更接近中性区间，从而维持我们实 现两个目标之间的平衡。" 威廉姆斯的言论表明，随着美联储主席鲍威尔试图在12月9日至10日的华盛顿会议之前，在分歧严重的 政策制定者群体中达成共识，再次降息仍是一种可能性。 继10月连续第二次降息后，多位官员表达了反对意见，或对是否支持12月连续第三次降息表示不确定。 在这一演 ...

钛媒体App 11月21日消息，比特币短线回升近3000美元至83500美元，此前美联储威廉姆斯表示对近期 降息持开放态度。（广角观察） ...

英伟达"炸裂"财报之后，全球市场情绪又突变，AI泡沫担忧重新袭来，美股一夜大反转。 与此同时，美国经济数据一团乱麻，特朗普疯狂想炒掉鲍威尔。 美东时间周三，特朗普公开痛批鲍威尔"极度无能"，直言很想将其解雇。 面对财政部长贝森特的极力劝阻，他表示，"贝森特唯一的失误就是美联储政策"，若美联储不降息，他 将解雇贝森特。 周四，美国经济数据公布后，贝森特随即表态，呼吁美联储"关注数据，继续其降息周期。" 救命稻草 特朗普执着换帅的背后，是关税困局与政治压力的双重驱动。 当前美国经济正站在"滞胀"悬崖边缘：国际货币基金组织11月最新报告显示，2025年美国经济增长率预 计为2.0%，显著低于2024年的2.8%，在发达经济体中复苏动能较弱。 耶鲁大学关税研究中心发布的数据显示，截至10月16日，美国消费者当前面临的总体平均有效关税税率 飙升至17.9%，为1934年以来的最高水平。 这直接推动美国PCE指数上涨，生活成本高企让美国家庭倍感压力。 据路透社/益普索最新民调显示，特朗普的支持率跌至38%，这是他重返白宫以来的最低水平，主要原 因在于美国人对他在处理生活成本和针对爱泼斯坦的调查方面表示不满。 在此背景下， ...

Employment Data - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 jobs and revising the previous value from 22,000 to -4,000 jobs[1][16] - The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%[15][35] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7%[15][39] Sector Performance - The service sector added 87,000 jobs in September, up from the previous value of 50,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector saw an increase of 10,000 jobs, recovering from a previous loss of 32,000 jobs[2][27] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors showed significant job recovery, with retail adding 14,000 jobs and leisure/hospitality adding 47,000 jobs in September, both higher than previous values[3][27] Federal Reserve Outlook - The strong non-farm data may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, with a 39.1% probability of a rate cut in December 2025 according to CME Fedwatch[5][23] - The delay in the release of employment data for October and November adds uncertainty, making a December rate cut less likely[5][23] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4% in September, up from 62.3% in August, indicating a rise in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][33] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 219,000 in September, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate[4][35] Wage Trends - The month-on-month increase in average hourly earnings was 0.2%, lower than the previous month's increase of 0.3%[39][40] - The year-on-year wage growth reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates[22][39]

与库克一样，她说她认为金融体系状况良好，银行资本充足，家庭资产负债表稳健。但与库克一样，哈 玛克也表示她正在关注对冲基金的高杠杆水平，并认为私人信贷值得关注。 吴雨，金十数据 金融市场稳定担忧，包括资产价格可能急剧下跌的风险，正成为美联储官员讨论降息时机甚至是否降息 时的新主题。 在周四乔治城大学的演讲中，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）并未特别就近期利率政策发表看法。 但她列举了一系列金融体系风险，包括快速增长的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在国债市场的交易，以及生 成式人工智能在机器交易中的应用。 库克还暗示，她不会对处于历史高位的资产价格崩盘感到惊讶——这些高估值资产支撑了整体消费支出 和更广泛的美国经济——尽管这种下跌本身并不意味着金融市场不稳定。"目前，我的感觉是资产价格 大幅下跌的可能性增加了。" 在早些时候的另一场合，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）重申了她对进一步降息的反 对，因为通胀仍然过高，并表示她认为宽松的金融条件是反对降息的另一个理由。 虽然降息可能被视为为就业市场"购买保险"，但她说，"我们应该记住，这种保险可能以加剧金融稳定 风险为代价。" 巴尔支持美联储 ...

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部 11 月 20 日公布数据 。 9 月新增非农 11.9 万人，高于预期的 5 万人 ，亦远高于达拉斯联储 估算的 3 万人 / 月就业平衡水平（即每 个月使劳动力市场保持平衡的新增岗位数量）。 从趋势上看，这是自 5 月以来首次新增岗位明显反弹，反映就业并非线性弱化，前期疲软一定程度上和 4 月关税 一次性冲击有关。从结构上拆解，医疗保健（ +5.7 万人）、休闲酒店（ +4.7 万人）和建筑业（ +1.9 万）为主要贡献；交通和仓储（ -2.5 万人）、专业服务 （ -2.0 万人）、制造业（ -0.6 万人）为主要拖累。 7-8 月合计下修 3.3 万人。 第二， 住户调查数据略弱，失业率继续有所回升。9 月美国失业率（ U3 ）上升 0.12pct 至 4.44% ，为本轮高点（年初为 4.0% ， 2024 年初为 3.7% ）。 其中就业人口上升 25.1 万人，失业人口上升 21.9 万人，劳动力人口规模增加 47 万人。劳动参与率小幅上升 0.1pct 至 62.4% ， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2][10]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2][13]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2][16]. - Tin: Prices have fallen from a high level [2][19]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances; Alumina: Ranging within a certain interval; Casting aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure to move in an oscillatory manner; Stainless steel: Weak market reality suppresses steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][27][28]. - Lithium carbonate: The speed of inventory reduction has slowed down, and a market sentiment cooldown may lead to a price correction [2][33]. - Industrial silicon: The market shows a weak pattern; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][36][37]. - Iron ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is relatively high [2][40]. - Rebar: Oscillating weakly; Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation; Manganese silicon: Wide - range oscillation [2][48]. - Coke: Wide - range oscillation; Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][52]. - Logs: Repeated oscillations [2][54]. - Para - xylene: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits; PTA: In a single - sided oscillatory market, avoid chasing high prices; MEG: New device launches lead to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure persists [2][28]. - Rubber: Oscillating; Synthetic rubber: Oscillating [2][31][33]. - Asphalt: Following the weak trend of crude oil [2][35]. - LLDPE: Agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, pay attention to supply pressure; PP: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend; Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37][38][39]. - Pulp: Oscillating [2][40]. - Glass: The price of original glass is stable [2][42]. - Methanol: Oscillating weakly, with the downside space narrowing; Urea: Short - term oscillation has support; Styrene: Short - term oscillation; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][43][45][47][48]. - LPG: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term; Propylene: Spot prices are trending strongly, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom; PVC: Do not chase short positions, oscillating at a low level; Fuel oil: Short - term strength, continuous rebound at night; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weak trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined; Container shipping index (European line): In an oscillatory market; Short - fiber: Short - term oscillatory market; Bottle chips: Short - term oscillatory market, with processing fees being compressed; Offset printing paper: Oscillating at a low level; Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline blending has started, mainly oscillating in the short term; Palm oil: The rebound height is limited, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas; Soybean oil: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, mainly oscillating within a certain range; Soybean meal: Oscillating; Soybean: Oscillating; Corn: Oscillating; Sugar: Consolidating at a low level; Cotton: Futures prices maintain an oscillatory trend; Eggs: The volume of culled hens has increased; Pigs: The expectation of temperature drop has materialized, and pressure is gradually being released; Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][5][49] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of domestic and international futures contracts showed declines, trading volumes and positions changed, and ETF positions decreased. For silver, futures prices also declined, trading volumes decreased, and positions increased. Inventory levels of both decreased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, with unemployment reaching a four - year high. The number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, while the number of continued claims reached a four - year high. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [6][9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US employment data was mixed, and the Netherlands suspended intervention in Nexperia. Peru's copper production increased, a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval, China's copper product output decreased, and import and export data for copper - related products changed [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, trading volumes decreased, positions increased, inventory levels changed, and various price spreads and premiums also changed [13]. - **News**: The US September non - farm report showed mixed signals in the employment market, which may complicate the Fed's December decision [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions declined, inventory levels changed, and price spreads and import - related data also changed [16]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, it was affected by the US employment data [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot prices and price spreads changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In addition to the US employment data, there were reports about Trump's AI policy and the White House's pressure on Congress regarding AI chip exports [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For electrolytic aluminum, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory levels, and price spreads changed. For alumina, relevant data also showed certain trends. For casting aluminum alloy, prices and inventory levels changed [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and there were differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, and various industrial chain prices and spreads also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for nickel imports, and there were regulations and policies in the Indonesian mining industry. There were also trade - related threats from the US [28][30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory levels of lithium carbonate contracts changed, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain trends [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and production and inventory data for lithium carbonate changed [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and spot prices, profits, and inventory levels also varied [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was put into operation [38]. Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined slightly, and price spreads changed [40]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial added value data was released [41]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined, and price spreads changed [43]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products were released, and national steel production data from January to October was also provided [44][46]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices and price spreads also changed [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was released, and manganese ore import data was provided [49][50]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices remained stable, and price spreads changed [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [53].

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 1.1 行情回顾： 11 月 20 日，万得全 A 再次缩量下跌，高开后一路震荡走低，收跌 0.66%，全 市超 7 成个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.51%、 0.40%、0.85%、0.63%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力 合约分别收跌 0.57%、0.28%、0.78%、0.47%，表现整体强于现货（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货 ...

金融市场稳定担忧，包括资产价格可能急剧下跌的风险，正成为美联储官员讨论降息时机甚至是否降息 时的新主题。 "一些与会者评论了金融市场资产估值过高的问题，其中几位与会者强调了股票价格无序下跌的可能 性，特别是在市场突然重新评估人工智能相关技术的可能性时"，会议纪要称。 政策制定者之间的辩论主要集中在：再次降息是否会让多年来一直高于美联储2%目标的通胀进一步向 错误方向发展，或者更紧迫的担忧是需要美联储进一步宽松的疲软劳动力市场。 周四，两位被视为持鹰派立场的美联储官员再度对通胀表现出不安。 在周四乔治城大学的演讲中，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）并未特别就近期利率政策发表看法。 但她列举了一系列金融体系风险，包括快速增长的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在国债市场的交易，以及生 成式人工智能在机器交易中的应用。 库克还暗示，她不会对处于历史高位的资产价格崩盘感到惊讶——这些高估值资产支撑了整体消费支出 和更广泛的美国经济——尽管这种下跌本身并不意味着金融市场不稳定。"目前，我的感觉是资产价格 大幅下跌的可能性增加了。" 在早些时候的另一场合，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）重申了她对进 ...