新华财经北京2月24日电 Comerica Bank首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯（Bill Adams）在最新研报中指出，在 当前"经济增长稳健但通胀仍高于目标"的宏观背景下，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）很可能在 主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）当前任期结束前——即2026年5月之前——维持联邦基金利率不 变。 亚当斯分析称，FOMC内部普遍认为，美国经济展现出较强韧性，短期内并无衰退风险。展望2026年， 多项积极因素将支撑增长：包括前期降息的滞后效应、政府支出扩张、房地产市场回暖，以及持续升温 的人工智能投资热潮。此外，美国最高法院上周裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的对 等关税违法，相关退税预计将为企业和消费者带来额外流动性，进一步提振经济活动。 然而，政策制定者对通胀前景仍持谨慎态度。尽管1月CPI同比降至2.4%，创2025年5月以来新低，但核 心通胀黏性犹存，且劳动力市场结构性紧张构成潜在上行风险。亚当斯强调："经济增长面临的最大下 行风险并非需求不足，而是劳动力供应瓶颈——若工资-物价螺旋再度抬头，可能引发通胀反弹。" 在此背景下，美联储倾向于保持政策观望。亚当斯 ...

2月24日，新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。据中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1年期LPR 为3%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，两个品种均较上月保持不变，这也是自2025年6月以来连续第9个月按兵不动。 "受反内卷推进等影响，2026年物价水平会温和回升，但总体物价涨幅仍会偏低，货币政策在包括降息在内的适度 宽松方向上有充足空间。另外，2026年美联储会进一步降息，汇率因素对国内货币政策灵活调整的掣肘也会减 弱。"王青补充道。 关于降准，温彬分析称，今年1月国新办发布会已明确，目前金融机构平均法定存款准备金率为6.3%，降准仍有空 间。从需求端看，为支持财政发力、稳定银行负债成本，以及在MLF和买断式逆回购余额增长背景下释放长期流 动性、缓解续作压力，降准存在一定必要性。但目前央行已能灵活运用7天/14天逆回购、买断式逆回购、MLF及 国债买卖等工具，有效满足市场流动性需求并维持利率稳定，因此短期内降准的概率同样不高。 LPR二季度有望跟进政策利率下调 展望后市，市场对2026年货币政策的宽松空间仍抱有期待。 温彬认为，央行四季度货政报告也提出"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 发布时间：2026-02-24 近期研究报告 《跨越化债边界，长久期城投债怎么 看？20260211》 - 2026.02.12 固收周报 节后债券交易逻辑有变化吗？ 研究所 ⚫ 交易逻辑变化不大，沿节前预设节奏进行 第一，节中消费、交运等景气数据的改善不乏亮点，但难以形成 对债市预期的显著冲击。 第二，节后风险偏好可能继续上行，但对债市的冲击也不会强于 节前。 第三，节后流动性无虞，降息进入"两会"前的观察窗口，预计 兑现概率不高，故债市交易情绪可能有所降温。 第四，大行年初负债相对宽松，是节前配置盘活跃度提升的主要 驱动，这条主线是阶段性的，在 3 月可能有所松动，二季度可能有变。 第五，超长期政府债的发行依然是主要关注因素，供需处于紧平 衡，3 月地方债发行计划明细增多，可能构成压力。 总之，节后债券的交易逻辑变化不大，依然沿着节前预设节奏进 行。对债市投资者而言，持仓过节之后，已经在 2 月获取了收益率小 幅下行的资本利得，继续博弈的胜率和赔率虽然不高 ...

0 2 B 从这一点来讲，降息肯定是利多黄金的，但缩表、缩减资产负债表，又是利空黄金的，所以接下来黄金具体会怎么走，还得等沃神正式上任之后，看美国的 实际利率究竟会如何表现，这才是关键。这里跟大家简单说一句，不管是降息还是加息，调整的都是名义利率；而缩减资产负债表，会直接影响到美国长期 债券的收益率，咱们可以简单理解为，长期债券收益率，其实就相当于美国的实际利率，这两者的关联度非常高，近期美债收益率的波动也间接影响了黄金 的短期走势。 所以说，从这方面来讲，我们后续要重点关注的，就是长期债券收益率的走向，尤其是沃神上任之后，他的货币政策会有哪些具体变化。当然了，大家也不 用太着急，沃神上任还有两三个月的时间，暂时不需要过分担忧，咱们边走边看、顺势而为就好。 l ( � 9 09 C T III l 首先一方面呢，就是关税的事。在放假期间，美国那边对特朗普的关税作出了判决，认定是不合法的，但这一点也不影响特朗普，他还是会从其他方面进一 步增加其他关税，说白了就是"不管合法不合法，我都要执行"，就是这么一个状态。 这是关税方面的情况，当然了，对于全球贸易来讲，这种做法肯定是不合理的，也不利于全球经济的发展。而从黄 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses macroeconomic narratives impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on demand recovery, currency dynamics, interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on market performance. Key Points Demand Recovery Narrative - Demand expectations are stable, with no signs of a turning point anticipated until 2026; if a turning point were to be identified, it would be considered to have occurred in 2022 or 2023 [1][2] Dollar Credit Loss - The dollar is entering an observation period, with no other currency currently presenting a strong appreciation narrative; the narrative surrounding the dollar's depreciation is expected to weaken in its influence on other assets [1][2] Interest Rate Narrative - The market has not priced in any interest rate cuts for January, with expectations indicating that no cuts will occur in March; future developments will depend on the testimony of Waller, who has previously expressed hawkish views during the Obama administration and dovish views during the Trump administration; if Waller does not exhibit hawkish tendencies in his upcoming testimony, the market may begin to price in the possibility of interest rate cuts [1][2] Geopolitical Narrative - There have been no fundamental changes in geopolitical risks; oil and precious metals continue to be supported by ongoing tensions, particularly regarding Trump's potential actions towards Iran [2][3] AI Narrative - There is a belief that 2023 will be a year for validating AI performance; if AI companies fail to meet market expectations, they may face significant pressure; however, proponents of AI believe the narrative surrounding AI is substantial and transformative [3]

Market Overview - US stock markets opened lower due to uncertainty in trade policies, with the Nasdaq down 0.23%, Dow Jones down 0.05%, and S&P 500 down 0.02% [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Tesla dropping over 2%, Amazon and Microsoft nearly 2%, and Facebook close to 1% [2] Company Performance - Novo Nordisk's stock fell nearly 14% after its next-generation weight loss drug CagriSema showed a weight loss effect of 20.2% over 84 weeks, compared to Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide, which achieved 23.6% [2][3] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Atour, NIO, and Hesai Technology increasing over 3%, while Li Auto and Weibo rose over 2% [4] Commodity Market - Gold prices surged, with spot gold nearing $5,200 per ounce, and NYMEX gold rising 2.67% to surpass this threshold [5] - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver increasing over 3% [6] - Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by over 0.6% [7] Economic Indicators - The US January CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, below the expected 2.5%, and core CPI increased by 2.5%, aligning with expectations [8] - The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed significant internal divisions among committee members regarding inflation persistence [8] - Recent changes in US trade policy include a Supreme Court ruling against large-scale tariffs, followed by an announcement of a 10% import tariff on global goods, which was later increased to 15% [8][9]

Group 1: Domestic High-Frequency Data - Retail and catering sales showed a significant increase, with average daily sales during the first four days of the Spring Festival rising by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous year [2][10] - Travel activity also increased, with an average daily passenger volume of 30.99 million during the Spring Festival, representing a 10.9% increase from 2025. Railway travel increased by 13.3% to 11.44 million, while civil aviation travel rose by 8.9% to 2.46 million [2][10] - Box office revenue for the Spring Festival was low, with an estimated total of around 6 billion yuan, which is below the levels of the past three years and similar to 2022 [2][10] - Real estate transactions were low during the Spring Festival, with average daily sales in 30 major cities at seasonal lows, making the data less relevant for broader analysis [2][10] Group 2: Overseas Macro Environment - The U.S. is experiencing increased uncertainty regarding tariffs due to internal conflicts between judicial and executive branches, with a recent Supreme Court ruling declaring many tariffs imposed by the previous administration as legally invalid [3][25] - Economic growth in the U.S. has slowed, with Q4 GDP rising by only 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth in Q3, influenced by government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][25] - Inflation pressures remain, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.0% year-on-year in December 2025, up from 2.8%, which may complicate future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4][25] Group 3: Global Capital Markets - Most global stock indices rose during the Spring Festival, with the South Korean market leading with a 3.09% increase. The U.S. stock market also saw slight gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.51% and the S&P 500 up 1.07% [5][34] - Oil prices increased by 5.7% due to geopolitical tensions, while gold and silver prices recovered, with silver rising by 5.6% and gold by 0.7% during the same period [5][40] - Bond yields in major economies mostly declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly rising to 4.08%, while other regions like Germany and France saw decreases in long-term bond yields [5][38] Group 4: Post-Festival Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue strengthening post-festival, supported by a weak economic backdrop and low financing demand, which provides overall protection for the bond market [6][43] - Seasonal declines in funding demand and limited impact from central bank liquidity withdrawal are anticipated, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][43] - The low positions of trading institutions and the continued allocation by investment institutions driven by lower costs and declining yields from other assets are expected to stabilize the market [6][43]

格隆汇2月21日｜2028年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆周五接受福克斯新闻商业频道采访时表 示，如果特朗普政府通过其他方式维持大部分关税，那么他对经济前景的看法不会发生重大变化。他还 表示，他想了解企业是否会收到关税退款，以及退款金额是多少。当被问及今年降息的可能性时，穆萨 莱姆表示，美联储的基准利率目前处于或低于所谓的"中性利率"水平，即既不会刺激经济增长也不会抑 制经济增长的水平。这一水平能够很好地应对美联储使命的任何方向。 ...

在美联储即将迎来新一轮人事调整之际，美国货币政策前景再添不确定性。被总统特朗普提名、拟接掌 美联储主席之位的凯文·沃什，不仅将继承当前的经济形势，也将直面一场尖锐的政策分歧，白宫希望 尽快降息，而他即将领导的政策制定机构却明显转向更为谨慎、偏紧的立场。 美联储1月会议纪要显示，在去年三次降息后，多数官员认为有必要在3.50%-3.75%的联邦基金利率区间 维持一段时间。部分与会者甚至指出，若通胀持续高于目标水平，应保留"必要时加息"的政策表述。官 员们普遍判断，就业下行风险已有所缓和，但通胀顽固性仍构成主要威胁。 智通财经APP获悉，EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco表示，这一背景令沃什的处境颇为微 妙。"外界可能认为沃什带着偏鸽的立场上任，但他首先需要证明自己的判断立足于经济基本面，而非 政治因素；随后，还要说服一个愈发偏鹰、且对政策利率接近中性水平感到安心的委员会。" 最新经济数据并未迫使政策立场迅速转向。1月美国非农就业新增约13万人，失业率小幅降至4.3%；招 聘节奏虽不均衡，但裁员水平仍然较低，初请失业金人数也未释放衰退信号。通胀方面，美联储偏好的 通胀指标仍徘徊在约3%附 ...

记者丨张嘉钰 编辑丨江佩霞 2月20日，美股集体低开，截至发稿，美股三大股指集体飘红反弹。 | 美国股票 [ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | 49514.02 | 22861.45 | 6896.37 | | +118.86 +0.24% | +178.72 +0.79% | +34.48 +0.50% | | 美国科技七巨头 | 中概科技龙头 | 中国金龙 | | 63000.13 | 4000.57 | 7547.33 | | +767.94 +1.23% | -8.84 -0.22% | -6.65 -0.09% | 科技股涨跌不一，英特尔跌近3%，谷歌涨近超2%，西部数据涨近1%。 加密货币市场表现积极，比特币上涨1.4%至67837.55美元，以太坊上涨0.8%。最近24小时，全球共有 79554人被爆仓。爆仓总金额为1.84亿美元。 美伊方面，据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月20日上午，在被问及"如果伊朗不达成协议、是否在考虑有限 的军事打击"时，美国总统特朗普回应称，"我想我可以说，我正在考虑那件事。" 据CCTV时讯报道 ...