2025 年 7 月 29 日 行业研究 《价格法》修正草案征求意见，反内卷政策持续深化落实 ——建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 周报（7 月 19 日-7 月 25 日） 要点 《价格法》修正草案征求意见，反内卷相关政策持续深化落实。24 年 7 月中央 政治局会议首次提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争以来，相关政策持续深化落实。24 年 12 月中央经济工作会议亦提出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企 业行为；25 年 3 月政府工作报告指明要综合整治"内卷式"竞争；7 月 1 日中 财委第六次会议再次强调，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品 品质，推动落后产能有效退出；在 7 月 16 日-17 日中央企业负责人研讨班上， 国资委提出国资央企要超越内卷竞争维护产业价值；7 月 18 日国新办新闻发布 会上，工信部表示，近期将陆续发布新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大 重点行业稳增长具体工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产 能；在 7 月 23 日-24 日地方国资委负责人研讨班上，国资委强调要带头抵制"内 卷式"竞争，加强重组整合；7 月 24 日《中华人民共和国价格法修 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The current demand for copper is temporarily weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment momentum, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered to be established in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may have a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased from 250 to 95, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1699. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The current demand is affected by the off - season and weak trans - shipment. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view is maintained [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand in August is expected to be in the off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 1500, and the inventory of LME increased by 114. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50. Other indicators such as waste stainless steel price also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price premium increased by 5, and the inventory of LME decreased by 2625. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 239.11, and the inventory of LME increased by 80. Other indicators such as LME C - 3M also changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased from - 1105 to - 165, and the 553 East China basis increased from 45 to 1035. The number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Hesheng has a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 280. Other indicators such as basis also changed [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17].

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and the concept of "anti-involution" [1][2][4][5][6][19][21] Core Points and Arguments 1. **Supply-Side Reform and Anti-Involution**: The discussion centers around the ongoing supply-side reforms in China, particularly the government's initiative to combat "involution" and promote structural adjustments in various industries [1][5][19][21] 2. **Market Sentiment and Liquidity**: Recent discussions with private and public investors indicate a warming sentiment in the stock market, with some investors perceiving signs of a bull market, although the fundamental economic situation remains challenging [4][6][19] 3. **Policy Expectations**: The expectation for the second half of the year is that policies will focus on structural adjustments and gradual support, with a recognition that initial measures may only address surface issues rather than deeper structural problems [5][21] 4. **Economic Data Trends**: There is an anticipation of economic activity peaking in the first half of the year, followed by a potential decline in the latter half, influenced by previous policy measures and external factors [5][21] 5. **Impact of U.S.-China Relations**: Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to continue without significant breakthroughs, with tariffs likely remaining at current levels for an extended period [12][13][15][18] 6. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with expectations for policies to support it, but challenges remain due to mismatches in supply and demand across different cities [25][26] 7. **Social Security and Welfare Reforms**: There are indications of gradual reforms in the social security system, including potential nationwide birth subsidies and free preschool education, aimed at enhancing consumer spending and social welfare [27][28][29] 8. **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The discussion highlights the potential for inflationary pressures in certain sectors, but overall demand remains weak, complicating the path to sustainable economic growth [35][36] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context**: The current reform efforts are compared to previous supply-side reforms from 2015 to 2018, with an emphasis on the need for a more profound structural change rather than just addressing superficial issues [22][24][31] 2. **Market Reactions**: There is a caution against overly optimistic market expectations, particularly regarding the speed and effectiveness of policy implementations [45][56] 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The call suggests that while the immediate outlook may be cautious, there are potential long-term investment opportunities arising from structural changes in various industries, particularly those that have previously undergone supply-side reforms [40][44][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets has faded, leading to price corrections. For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, while demand has mixed changes. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the demand in the photovoltaic market remains weak [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.52% to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price fell 1.45% to 10,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 8.33% to 8,915 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained flat, while the futures main contract closing price dropped 3.17% to 49,409 yuan/ton [1]. Market News - On July 26, the China Tendering and Bidding Network announced the winning candidate publicity for the second batch of photovoltaic module procurement of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. in 2025. Jingao and Hengdian Dongci were short - listed, with Jingao at 0.73 yuan/W and Hengdian Dongci at 0.701 yuan/W, and the procurement volume was tentatively set at 124.09MWp [1]. - Premier Energies plans to build a new 1.2GW TOPCon solar cell production line in Telangana, India, which will increase its solar cell production capacity from 2GW to 3.2GW [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Northern large factories have production cuts with no restart news, while Southwest production areas are in the wet season with lower power costs and a slow increase in enterprise operations. Overall, supply may decrease after offsetting [1]. - Demand side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, with some restarts in July to bring demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory willingness is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - Supply side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and some new production capacity may be put into use, with an expected slight increase in production in July, approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand side: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected price increase of polysilicon, the terminal market is still weak [1].

重要消息 国家育儿补贴方案公布，3周岁前每娃每年3600元。 中美经贸会谈开始举行。 香港证券市场下调最低上落价位，第一阶段将于下周一（8月4日）生效。 申购提示：今日1只新股申购，为北交所新股酉立智能，申购代码为920007，发行价23.99元，申购上限 53.21万股。 重要的消息有哪些 国家育儿补贴制度实施方案7月28日公布。从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴 幼儿发放补贴，至其年满3周岁。育儿补贴按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元。其中， 对2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，按应补贴月数折算计发补贴。 当地时间7月28日，中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。 7月28日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。路透社记者提问，中美即将在瑞典开始经贸会谈，中 方对此次会谈持何立场？"关于中美在瑞典举行经贸会谈的具体情况，你可以保持关注。"郭嘉昆指出， 在经贸问题上，中方的立场是一贯明确的，希望美方同中方一道，落实两国元首通话达成的重要共识， 发挥中美经贸磋商机制的作用。在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上，通过对话沟通，增进共识，减少误解， 加强合作， ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Vietnam's GDP growth in Q2 2025 reached 8.0%, the highest increase since 2023, outperforming other Southeast Asian economies [2][7] - For the first half of 2025, GDP growth was 7.5%, compared to 6.6% in the same period of 2024, marking the strongest performance since 2011 [2][7] - Industrial GDP grew by 8.3% and service GDP by 8.1% in the first half of 2025, driven by stable domestic demand [2][7] - The Prime Minister raised the GDP growth target for 2025 from 8.0% to a range of 8.3% to 8.5% [2][9] Trade Dynamics - A tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam reduced the baseline tariff on Vietnamese exports from 46% to 20%, enhancing Vietnam's competitive position [3][22] - Vietnam's existing multinational enterprises are less incentivized to relocate, making the current trade environment favorable for investment [3][23] - Vietnam's tariff advantages compared to other manufacturing countries may reduce the economic drive for companies to shift production to lower-cost nations [23] Policy Reforms - Vietnam is undergoing significant reforms, focusing on four key resolutions aimed at enhancing governance and economic efficiency [4][31] - Recent reforms include a two-tier administrative structure and a series of important legislative measures to improve the business environment [9][10] Stock Market Performance - The VN Index reached 1,474 points on July 15, 2025, the highest level since April 2022, with a year-to-date increase of 14.9% [5][34] - Foreign investment has shifted from net selling to net buying, with a net inflow of $339 million in July [5][34] - Key sectors expected to benefit from market trends include consumer markets, industrial and logistics, banking, commercial real estate, and brokerage stocks [5][38] Sectoral Insights - Consumer market leaders may benefit from government crackdowns on counterfeit goods, enhancing brand preference [38] - The industrial sector is expected to gain momentum due to reduced pressure from multinational companies relocating production [38] - Banking and commercial real estate sectors are poised for growth due to ongoing credit expansion and rising demand for office and retail spaces [38] - Brokerage firms may see increased profitability as retail investor participation rises, with nearly 1 million new accounts opened in the first half of 2025 [39]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Supply-side policies are expected to accelerate, focusing on sectors with supply elasticity in the basic chemical industry. The domestic policy emphasizes supply-side reforms, while international raw material costs are rising, leading to capacity exits in European and American chemical companies. In the long term, China's chemical industry has a competitive advantage due to cost and technological advancements, which may reshape the global chemical industry landscape [6][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Rectifying the Pesticide Industry" was launched, aiming to improve market order and product quality by addressing issues like illegal production and unfair competition. The goal is to enhance compliance awareness among enterprises and optimize the supply structure in the pesticide industry by the end of 2027 [14]. 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.69%, while the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 4.03%, outperforming the market by 2.34 percentage points. The Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index rose by 2.58%, also outperforming the market [19][22]. 3. Key Sub-industry Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with structural supply optimization, such as organic silicon, membrane materials, chlorine-alkali, and dyes. Key companies to watch include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Dongcai Technology, Zhejiang Longsheng, and Runtu Co. Additionally, for sectors with relatively weak supply-demand dynamics, attention should be on leading companies like Baofeng Energy, Juhua Co., Yangnong Chemical, Guangxin Co., and Runfeng Co. [6][18]. 4. Price Data Tracking - Notable price increases for the week included TDI (East China) at 15.58%, organic silicon DMC at 8.45%, and vitamin E at 6.06%. Conversely, hydrochloric acid saw a significant drop of 56.52% [29][30]. 5. Market Trends and Consumer Demand - New consumer trends are driving demand for health additives and sugar substitutes, with regulatory policies promoting the expansion of the food additive industry. Companies focusing on technology and product differentiation, such as Bailong Chuangyuan and Jinhai Technology, are expected to benefit [7][18]. 6. Industry Data Tracking - The report highlights that the overall self-sufficiency rate of new chemical materials in China is approximately 56%, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic substitution and development in various sectors, including semiconductor materials and high-end engineering plastics [7][18].

Group 1 - The report from Morgan Stanley highlights a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the Chinese photovoltaic industry, moving from short-term speculation to long-term value considerations, with long-term investors now comprising nearly half of the investor base [2] - Investors are cautious about the government's ability to intervene significantly in the short term regarding the oversupply issue in the photovoltaic sector, despite recognizing the need for action [3][4] - The industry is experiencing a paradigm shift in sentiment, transitioning from continuous valuation downgrades to a phase of range-bound fluctuations, driven by concerns over oversupply and ongoing policy exploration [5] Group 2 - Daqo New Energy is identified as the most attractive company in terms of risk-reward ratio, with investors acknowledging its valuation advantages, financial stability, and cost leadership [6][7] - Other renewable energy companies such as Goldwind and Orient Cables are noted for their strong fundamentals, although they may face performance pressure in the second quarter, presenting potential entry opportunities [8] - Longjiang Power is viewed as a defensive choice among renewable power generation companies, while some investors agree with the valuation assessment of Longyuan Power and the downgrade of CGN Power to a "neutral" rating [9] Group 3 - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical juncture of emotional transition, with ongoing policy exploration and market structure optimization, making Daqo New Energy a preferred choice for investors looking to capitalize on industry transformation opportunities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need to address "involution" in competition within industries, emphasizing that the root cause lies in the extreme unfairness of resource distribution, where 98% of people compete for only 20% of resources, leading to a cycle of inefficiency and pressure to overwork [2]. Group 1: Involution and Its Causes - Involution is driven by an extremely unfair distribution of resources, compelling individuals to work harder to secure a share of wealth [2]. - The total wealth produced is a function of production efficiency and time, with individuals having limited means to increase their wealth other than working longer hours [2]. - Companies face similar pressures, often resorting to lowering prices to capture a larger share of the distribution [2]. Group 2: Government and Policy Responses - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for market-driven price mechanisms, suggesting that prices should be determined by market forces wherever possible [9]. - The NDRC's approach includes a systematic view and comprehensive measures to address issues, promoting the efficient flow of high-quality production factors [9]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The article suggests that addressing involution may lead to the elimination of low-quality enterprises while retaining those that meet higher standards, as seen in the charging treasure industry where stricter regulations can lead to the exit of weaker players [4]. - There are concerns that reducing production capacity to combat involution could result in layoffs and salary reductions, as fewer workers may be needed if capacity is decreased [8]. Group 4: Historical Context - The article contrasts the current situation with the supply-side reforms of 2015, which primarily targeted internal issues, while the current context involves both internal and external factors influencing the economy [11]. - The article notes that the execution strength of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) was a significant factor in the 2015 reforms, raising questions about which capacities will be reduced in the current environment dominated by private enterprises [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued optimistic view of the bond market and A-share structural opportunities, but does not explicitly provide a specific industry investment rating [12] Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the substantial price increases of commodities are driven by the dual positive factors of heightened expectations for supply-side reform and increased demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project. The bond market is not significantly affected by the commodity price hikes, and the short - term adjustment presents an opportunity to go long on the bond market. In the stock market, the Politburo meeting at the end of July may introduce pro - growth policies, and the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden are expected to keep investors' risk appetite at a relatively high level. There are still investment opportunities in sectors such as rare earths, artificial intelligence, innovative drugs, and commodities [12] Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - **US Stocks**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by 1.02%, 1.46%, and 1.26% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.91%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 2.27% [3] - **A - shares**: The Wind All - A Index rose 2.21%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by 2.29%, 1.69%, 3.28%, 1.81%, and 3.63% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 changing by 1.12% and 4.63% respectively, and the Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index changing by 2.12% and 2.76% respectively. The North Exchange 50 Index changed by 2.85% [4] - **Industry Performance**: Among the 30 CITIC industries, 4 declined and 26 rose. Leading industries included coal, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and construction, with weekly gains exceeding 6%. In terms of ETF performance, rare metals, coal, building materials, non - ferrous metals, and Hong Kong securities performed well, with weekly gains above 7% [4] Bond Market Performance - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.56% compared to July 18, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 6.72 BP to 1.7324%. Yields of maturities of 6 months and above increased, with longer - term yields rising more, making the yield curve steeper [5] - **Funding Costs**: As of July 25, 2025, R007 was 1.6937%, up 18.65 BP from July 18, 2025, and DR007 was 1.6523%, up 14.56 BP. The spread between them widened. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 70.5 billion yuan through open - market operations (reverse repurchase operations and central bank bill swaps) in the past week [6] - **Bond Market Leverage**: The bond market leverage level increased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.24 trillion yuan on July 18, 2025, to 7.70 trillion yuan on July 25, 2025. As of July 25, 2025, the spreads between the yields of 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds and IRS007 were - 14.52, - 1.76, and 22.25 BP respectively [7] - **US Treasury Bonds**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), US Treasury yields showed a pattern of short - term increases and long - term decreases. As of July 25, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 4 BP to 4.40%. Yields of maturities of 3 years and below increased, while those of other maturities decreased, making the yield curve flatter [7][9] Currency and Commodity Markets - **US Dollar**: The US dollar index fell 0.80% in the past week (20250721 - 20250727). The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.00%, - 0.19%, and - 0.76% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates fell 0.18% and 0.12% respectively [10] - **Gold**: In the past week (20250721 - 20250727), international gold prices fell, with the London gold spot price down 0.35% to $3343.5 per ounce and the COMEX gold futures price down 0.61% to $3329.1 per ounce. Domestic gold prices rose, with the Shanghai gold spot up 0.09% to 774.21 yuan per gram and the futures up 0.01% to 774.70 yuan per gram [10] Trade Negotiations - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and the EU. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement on July 27, 2025. Sino - US economic and trade talks will be held in Sweden from July 27 - 30, 2025, and their progress is worthy of attention [11]