Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing a tug-of-war between high supply and increasing production losses, leading to heightened price volatility amid contrasting realities and expectations [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol supply remains high, with port inventories reaching a historical peak of 1.531 million tons as of October 23, an increase of approximately 380,000 tons compared to the same period last year [2] - The expected import volume of methanol in the next two weeks is around 980,000 tons, which is about 50% higher than the average of previous years, indicating continued pressure on port inventories in the short term [2] Seasonal Production Constraints - Iran is expected to reduce methanol production due to seasonal natural gas shortages, with production facilities typically shutting down from mid-November to the end of January for maintenance, potentially easing domestic inventory pressures [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including increased U.S. sanctions on Iran and strained relations with Venezuela, could impact methanol imports, as Venezuela accounted for approximately 6% of China's total methanol imports in the past year [3] Cost Support Factors - The domestic methanol industry is facing a scenario of high supply and significant production losses, with an operating rate of approximately 75.85%, which is historically high [4] - The theoretical production profit for coal-based methanol in Inner Mongolia has dropped to -173.5 yuan per ton, a decline of about 200 yuan per ton over the past month, driven by diverging trends in methanol and coal prices [4] - As winter approaches, coal demand is expected to rise, which may provide cost support for methanol production despite current price declines [4] Demand Trends - The demand for methanol is showing a mixed picture, with methanol-to-olefins (MTO) production maintaining a relatively high operating rate of about 84.33%, indicating strong demand resilience [5] - In contrast, traditional downstream sectors are experiencing weakness, with a comprehensive operating rate of only 46.89%, down 6.64 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting sluggish terminal consumption [5] - Overall, the high inventory, supply, and weak demand situation is unlikely to change significantly in the short term, while external factors and cost pressures may provide some support for prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and will fluctuate later due to the expected reduction in crude steel production despite the lack of substantial improvement in downstream consumption [3]. - The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. - Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. - Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of various steel contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up from 3046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also generally increased slightly [4][9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly in the short - term and then fluctuate due to the expected reduction in crude steel production and the lack of improvement in downstream consumption [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the 01 contract closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton. The basis of each contract changed slightly [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The average daily hot - metal output decreased, the 45 - port inventory increased, and the global and Australia - Brazil shipments increased [28]. - **Market Outlook**: The iron ore market faces pressure from abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand boost. Prices are expected to remain under pressure [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the coking coal and coke basis and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was 204 yuan/ton. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed to some extent [40][41]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and short - term coke prices may be strong, but potential negative feedback from the steel market will limit the upside [34]. Ferroalloys - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the basis and spreads of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese changed. For example, the ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese 01 - 05 spread was - 42 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [51][53]. - **Market Outlook**: Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with significant destocking pressure [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to October 24. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1337 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts also changed [61]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash is cost - priced. With high - level supply expected in the medium - to - long - term, prices are restricted by high inventories but supported by costs [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts increased slightly compared to October 24. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [88]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass sales are weak, with high intermediate inventories. Without real production cuts, the price of the 01 contract may decline, but there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [87].

投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围仍存，煤焦偏强震荡 核心观点 焦炭：截至 10 月 24 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦炭产量 110.72 万吨，周环比下降 0.51 万吨；247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 239.9 万 吨，周环比下降 1.05 万吨。库存方面，本周焦炭在上游和中游有所累 积，独立焦化厂累库 1.35 万吨，四大港口累库 4.94 万吨，而下游钢厂焦 炭库存周环比下降 6.28 万吨。整体来看，焦炭上下游博弈加剧，基本面 支撑不足，相对利 ...

Industry Overview - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased to 76.57%, down 0.12% week-on-week and 0.67% year-on-year. The calcium carbide method utilization was at 74.38%, down 0.34% week-on-week and 1.91% year-on-year, while the ethylene method increased to 81.64%, up 0.38% week-on-week and 1.68% year-on-year [1] - The maintenance loss for PVC production last week was 80,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The current PVC industry inventory stands at 1.4249 million tons, showing a slight decrease from last week. The overall inventory (upstream + social) decreased by 1.47% week-on-week [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures noted that with maintenance gradually recovering and high absolute inventory levels, the fundamental support is insufficient. However, prices are at relatively low levels, and domestic policy expectations suggest that PVC will mainly experience low-level fluctuations in the short term [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures observed that while pressure from manufacturers and society has decreased, the overall situation remains under high pressure. Production has slightly declined due to maintenance, and domestic demand is stable. Export activities in September continued to show positive trends. Recent stability in calcium carbide prices has not significantly supported costs, indicating a continuation of a weak market environment, with PVC likely operating within a bottom range due to potential policy pressures on exports [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With cost support and peak - season restocking, PTA inventory reduction continues. It is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation at a low valuation. However, the long - term supply - demand situation is weakening, and the rebound momentum is limited. Attention should be paid to crude oil dynamics [6]. - MEG: The cost side of ethylene glycol performs well. With some device maintenance and blocked arrival of imported goods, it is expected to continue the short - term rebound trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Market Trend**: Due to the US increasing sanctions on Russia, the ongoing stalemate in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the easing of market concerns about trade disputes, combined with the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, international crude oil rebounded from a low level. For PX, with cost support, many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, and terminal restocking enthusiasm increased, leading to a recovery in the absolute price of PX. As of October 24, the closing price of Asian PX was $815/ton CFR China, up $32/ton from October 17 [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The 1 million - ton device of Urumqi Petrochemical continued maintenance and was planned to restart around October 29; two 1.4 - million - ton devices of Fushun Dahua continued maintenance and were planned to restart in early November. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PX was 86.33%, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week [19]. - **Price Difference**: As of October 24, the PX - naphtha price difference was $233.9/ton, a decrease of $12.3/ton from October 17. Although many factories reported reduced reform loads or malfunctions, the cost side was significantly driven up by crude oil, resulting in a narrow decline in the PX - naphtha price difference [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: In the first half of the week, affected by the weakening of oil prices, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was low, and the pessimistic sentiment in the industrial chain spread. The spot price of PTA continued to weaken. In the middle of the week, as oil prices rebounded from a low level, the overall sentiment in the commodity market improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries in the traditional peak season increased. The spot price rebounded from a low level. As of October 24, the spot price of PTA was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA reached 75.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%. Although the load of Yisheng Ningbo's device decreased, due to the load increase of Yisheng New Materials last week, the increase was more than the decrease, and the overall domestic production this period increased. In October, Ineos and Hengli both had maintenance plans, and the restart times of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan were not yet determined. The monthly production of PTA may increase significantly. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more - than - expected production cuts in existing devices [28]. - **Processing Fee**: The terminal performance was mediocre, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream industries was hindered, and the spot price trend was sluggish. However, the raw material supply was tight, and the price trend was strong. This week, the PTA processing fee continued to decline. Next week, there is an expectation of a rebound in the PTA spot price, but the maintenance devices have restart plans, and the polyester end changes little. The inventory reduction amplitude in the balance sheet narrows, and the PTA processing fee may be slightly repaired [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In October, there was insufficient PTA device maintenance, and the maintenance devices restarted one after another. With little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be in a loose balance [32]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: At the beginning of the week, the market continued to worry about the supply - demand pattern. In the middle of the week, affected by factors such as the continuous rise of crude oil, the reduction in supply, and the decrease in imported goods, the price of ethylene glycol rose from a low level. As of October 24, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang reached 4,183 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market remained stable at 4,280 yuan/ton [37]. - **Capacity Utilization**: This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 68.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 67.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 70.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. In October, due to cautious import expectations, the inventory accumulation amplitude at ports was limited, but the domestic production increase expectation was obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of unexpected device changes [38]. - **Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China was 127,000 tons. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to October 16 [42][44]. - **Profit**: With the stable operation of newly invested domestic devices, the overall supply continued to increase. The terminal orders were mediocre, and the downstream polyester demand was lackluster. The trend of weakening supply - demand could not be reversed. The raw material prices fluctuated, and the sample profits of each ethylene glycol production process showed both increases and decreases. As of October 24, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $95.04/ton, up $13.85/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was - 610.44 yuan/ton, down 140.24 yuan/ton from last week [46]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%. Some domestic polyester devices were shut down for maintenance during the week. Next week, the previously shut - down and maintained devices have no clear restart expectations, and the commissioning of new devices is postponed. It is expected that the domestic polyester production will decline slightly next week [51]. - **Capacity Utilization of Each Product**: This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.04%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous period. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 85.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%; among them, the average capacity utilization rate of conventional staple fiber was 88.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%. The Fujian Shanli plant shut down during the period. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08% [57]. - **Inventory**: Downstream industries carried out centralized restocking during the week, the overall sales of polyester increased, and the finished product inventory of factories decreased [58]. - **Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost increased, and polyester filament manufacturers sold products at discounted prices. The cash flow of most varieties was compressed [63]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, an increase of 2.39% compared to the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 15.68 days, an increase of 0.88 days compared to last week. As the weather gets colder, the demand for domestic autumn and winter fabrics is good, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is relieved. However, the market lacks confidence in future orders, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis. It is expected that the operating rate will still face downward pressure in the future [64]. 3.5 Summary of Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International crude oil rebounded from a low level, and the absolute price of PX recovered [68]. - **Supply**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of PTA increased slightly, and the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate decreased [68]. - **Demand**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased [68]. - **Inventory**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the near - term supply remains tight, while the long - term supply - demand inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China decreased [68].

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 地缘与宏观利好释放，油价反弹。地缘方面，欧美新增对俄罗斯制裁，印 | | | | 度或减少进口俄罗斯原油，油价反弹；宏观方面，中美在马来西亚达成"非 | | 原油 | 谨慎看多 | 常实质性的框架协议"；供需方面，消费淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期， | | ★ | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量 | | | | 变化。策略：空单持有，买入看涨期权控制风险，同时买入看跌期权。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气反弹。成本端油价受地缘扰动反弹，成本端利好；供 | | LPG | | 需基本面改善，供给量小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强。 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 库存端，港口库存下降。策略：地缘驱动价格反弹，买入看跌期权等待风 | | | | 险释放。 | | | | 现货跟涨，基差走强，跟随成本端弱势反弹。社会去化缓慢，10 月进口到 | | L | | 港较多，后市仍存增加预期；广西石化 70 万吨装置计划本月底投产叠加 | | ★ | 空头反弹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of casting aluminum alloy is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end logic of casting aluminum alloy still exists, and the price is supported. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is bullish. It is advisable to look for buying points on dips [6] - The combined inventory of cast aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses has increased, and the inventory pressure remains. However, with the arrival of the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry, car sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The weekly price of casting aluminum alloy futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a high of 20,775 yuan/ton during the week. The scrap aluminum price fluctuated strongly, and the prices of raw and processed aluminum increased simultaneously. Some enterprises faced prominent cost pressure due to low raw material inventories. The demand showed certain resilience, and leading enterprises maintained a good production rhythm [6] 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2511.shf and AD2512.shf contracts on October 24, 2025, the futures price difference was 90 yuan/ton. The fixed cost was 14.48 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 65.89 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 80 yuan/ton [12] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The reference price of casting aluminum alloy spot was 20,700 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost was 20,916.4 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production was at a high level, and social inventory was decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum was also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [16][18] 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 was slightly raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum fluctuated. The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum decreased, while the monthly operating rate increased. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output proportion were also provided [29][39][44] - The cost of ADC12 was mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost was above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy increased, and the social inventory was at a historical high. The import window of casting aluminum alloy was temporarily closed [45][50][55] 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The fuel - powered vehicle industry entered the year - end sales rush stage, which would drive die - casting consumption. In the second week of October (October 13 - 19), domestic passenger car retail sales were 1.128 million, a 6% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in October last year and a 7% increase compared to the same period last month. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 18.136 million, a year - on - year increase of 8% [6][64]

Group 1: Report Title and Core Views - The report is titled "LPG: Significant Cost Support, Macroeconomic Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Rebound from Low Levels" [2][3] - The core view is that LPG has significant cost support but still faces macro risks, while propylene is supported by cost and shows a short - term rebound from low levels [2][3] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,356 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.88%, and its night - session price remained unchanged; PG2512 closed at 4,236 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.49%, and its night - session price dropped 0.05% to 4,234; PL2601 closed at 6,154 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.15%, and its night - session price remained unchanged; PL2602 closed at 6,211 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.40%, and its night - session price rose 0.14% to 6,220 [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - For PG2511, yesterday's trading volume was 17,245, a decrease of 897 from the previous day, and open interest was 16,040, a decrease of 5279; for PG2512, trading volume was 73,452, an increase of 6427, and open interest was 92,674, a decrease of 1563; for PL2601, trading volume was 10,211, an increase of 4587, and open interest was 10,340, a decrease of 332; for PL2602, trading volume was 5,167, an increase of 2542, and open interest was 5,207, a decrease of 117 [3] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 44 yesterday, down from 82 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 104, down from 142; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 129, down from - 74; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 54, down from - 9; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 129, down from - 59 [3] Industrial Chain Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 71.7%, up from 68.8% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 67.8%, up from 63.1%; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, slightly down from 45.1% [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2 [6] Group 4: Market Information CP Paper Cargo Prices - On October 23, 2025, the November CP paper cargo price for propane was 461 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 458 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The December CP paper cargo price for propane was 470 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfa New Material Co., Ltd.'s PDH Phase I from September 29, 2025, to the end of October 2025 [8] LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many LPG factories have device maintenance plans, like Huaxing Petrochemical in Shandong starting a full - plant maintenance on October 22, 2024, until November 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical having a rotational inspection from October 17, 2025, to early December 2025 [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **PE**: Affected by geopolitics and macro - factors, international oil prices have rebounded strongly from a low level, enhancing cost support. However, the supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand follows up limitedly. Although the price has risen with cost support, the upside space is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Oil prices and propane prices have rebounded, increasing cost support. But the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly with large inventory de - stocking pressure. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6999元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6691元/吨（+72）。LL华北现货为6940元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6610元/吨（+50）。LL华北基差为 - 59元/吨（-3），LL华东基差为1元/吨（-23），PP华东基差为 - 81元/吨（-22） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为81.5%（-0.3%），PP开工率为75.9%（-2.3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为404.0元/吨（-87.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 236.0元/吨（-87.8），PDH制PP生产利润为63.7元/吨（-104.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 138.6元/吨（+8.8），PP进口利润为 - 367.2元/吨（+84.5），PP出口利润为 - 7.6美元/吨（-39.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为47.1%（+4.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.6%（+0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（+0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost support has increased, but the supply is expected to rise with limited downstream demand. The price has risen with cost support, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Cost support has strengthened, but the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Low - level Volatility" [1] - The core view is that the LPG disk valuation is being repaired but there are still macro risks, and propylene is supported by cost and will run with short - term low - level volatility [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Futures Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,318 yesterday with a 1.91% daily increase and 4,326 in the night session with a 0.19% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,174 yesterday with a 2.03% daily increase and 4,181 in the night session with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,084 yesterday with a 0.81% daily increase and 6,098 in the night session with a 0.23% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,125 yesterday with a 0.69% daily increase and 6,143 in the night session with a 0.29% increase [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had 18,142 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,241 from the previous day, and a position of 21,319, a decrease of 3,024 from the previous day; PG2512 had 67,025 contracts traded yesterday, an increase of 3,151 from the previous day, and a position of 94,237, an increase of 1,934 from the previous day; PL2601 had 5,624 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 4,499 from the previous day, and a position of 10,672, a decrease of 610 from the previous day; PL2602 had 2,625 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,745 from the previous day, and a position of 5,324, a decrease of 92 from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 203 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 142 yesterday, compared to 223 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 74 yesterday, compared to - 25 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 9 yesterday, compared to 40 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 59 yesterday, compared to - 10 the previous day [1] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 68.8% this week, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1% this week, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9% this week, compared to 45.1% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 4: Market News CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 22, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 448 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH devices have maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfat New Material Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on September 29, 2025, and ending at the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting maintenance on May 14, 2024, and ending in October 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical starting a rotational inspection on October 17, 2025, and ending in early December 2025 [6]