Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Low - level Volatility" [1] - The core view is that the LPG disk valuation is being repaired but there are still macro risks, and propylene is supported by cost and will run with short - term low - level volatility [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Futures Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,318 yesterday with a 1.91% daily increase and 4,326 in the night session with a 0.19% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,174 yesterday with a 2.03% daily increase and 4,181 in the night session with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,084 yesterday with a 0.81% daily increase and 6,098 in the night session with a 0.23% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,125 yesterday with a 0.69% daily increase and 6,143 in the night session with a 0.29% increase [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had 18,142 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,241 from the previous day, and a position of 21,319, a decrease of 3,024 from the previous day; PG2512 had 67,025 contracts traded yesterday, an increase of 3,151 from the previous day, and a position of 94,237, an increase of 1,934 from the previous day; PL2601 had 5,624 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 4,499 from the previous day, and a position of 10,672, a decrease of 610 from the previous day; PL2602 had 2,625 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,745 from the previous day, and a position of 5,324, a decrease of 92 from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 203 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 142 yesterday, compared to 223 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 74 yesterday, compared to - 25 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 9 yesterday, compared to 40 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 59 yesterday, compared to - 10 the previous day [1] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 68.8% this week, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1% this week, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9% this week, compared to 45.1% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 4: Market News CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 22, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 448 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH devices have maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfat New Material Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on September 29, 2025, and ending at the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting maintenance on May 14, 2024, and ending in October 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical starting a rotational inspection on October 17, 2025, and ending in early December 2025 [6]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - For the polyolefin industry, the overall macro - environment is pessimistic, and the cost and supply - demand situation are weak. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure. The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP have limited upside space due to new device production pressure and lackluster demand [2]. - In the polyester industry, PX is expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply contraction and demand support. PTA may be boosted in the short - term. EG is under pressure due to inventory build - up. Short - fiber prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip prices follow the cost side [4]. - Regarding pure benzene and styrene, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. They may follow oil prices in the short - term [5]. - For PVC and caustic soda, short - term caustic soda prices are weak due to supply increase and general demand, while long - term there is demand support. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and the short - term disk has stopped falling [6]. - In the methanol industry, the price may continue to oscillate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation, port de - stocking, and overseas gas - limiting expectations [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 increased. The price differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed. The prices of some spot products such as East China PP wire drawing and North China LDPE film also rose [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Polyester Industry - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On October 22, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed. The cash flows of some products decreased [4]. - **PX - Related**: Some PX devices had unplanned maintenance or load reduction, and a new PTA device was planned to be put into production. PX supply was expected to shrink, and demand was supported [4]. - **PTA - Related**: As some PTA devices restored their loads and new devices were about to be put into production, the PTA spot basis continued to weaken [4]. - **EG - Related**: Domestic ethylene glycol devices started up and increased their loads, and the supply was sufficient. It was expected to build up inventory in October [4]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply was high, and demand was supported. Bottle - chip was in the traditional off - season, and demand was weak [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the prices of some products such as CFR China pure benzene and BZ futures 2603 increased. The spreads between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories changed, and the operating rates of industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain also changed [5]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Pure benzene supply was expected to be loose due to new capacity and weak demand. Styrene supply was expected to be high, and demand was limited [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the prices of SH2601 and V2601 increased, while SH2509 decreased. The price differences between SH2509 - 2601 and V2509 - V2601 changed [6]. - **Export and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC export prices and profits changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Caustic soda demand was weak in the short - term but had long - term support. PVC supply - demand pressure was large, and the market was weak [6]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the closing prices of MA2601 decreased, while MA2605 increased. The basis and regional price differences changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol inventories such as enterprise, port, and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Overseas methanol production decreased, and there were expectations of supply reduction. Port inventory was high, and demand was weak in the traditional downstream [7].

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 4434.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4488.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.59% [1] - Major producers are reducing output due to various reasons, leading to a slight decrease in supply, while demand remains lukewarm despite the traditional peak season [1] - The processing fee for PTA is at a low level, indicating an overall undervaluation, but the long-term supply-demand outlook is pessimistic, suggesting a continuation of the current oscillating market pattern [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations of increased PTA maintenance, the polyester production load is anticipated to decline during the traditional off-peak season, resulting in a weak supply-demand outlook for PTA [2] - The cost side shows that PX loads remain high in Asia and domestically, putting pressure on PXN, while crude oil prices are fluctuating [2] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for PTA are weak, with recent news indicating a potential easing of US-China trade tensions, warranting attention to the progress of US-China economic negotiations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. - For PX, it currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. - For PTA, supply is increasing slightly, and demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, a 22.68% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, a 12.56% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels, an 8.20% increase [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [2]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, a 0.17% decrease [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: No specific strategy viewpoint is provided other than for the overall energy market situation. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 13 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan, at 2268 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 6, at - 20 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed due to port fees, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply is slightly down, while demand remains weak. The pattern of weak reality persists, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, while that in Henan decreased by 10 yuan. Most areas remained stable, with only a few areas seeing price drops. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan, at 1609 yuan, with a basis of - 79. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5, at - 75 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and开工 has significantly declined. The price is at a low level with low valuation and weak drivers, and it's expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It's advisable to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, affecting rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 18.70 percentage points from the previous week and 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.37%, up 23.50 percentage points from the previous week but down 4.73 percentage points from the same period last year. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025, a 0.7% decrease [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and trade quickly. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 3 yuan, at 4699 yuan. The spot price of SG - 5 in Changzhou was 4600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 99 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan). The 1 - 5 spread was - 301 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan). The overall operating rate of PVC was 76.7%, down 5.9% from the previous period; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.7%, down 8.2%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.6%. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.2%, down 8.6%. Factory inventory was 36 million tons (- 2.3 million tons), and social inventory was 103.4 million tons (- 0.3 million tons) [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation is poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market and weak export expectations. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [12][14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5430 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5476 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract increased by 73 yuan/ton to 6438 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.88%, down 1.73%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 38.81%, up 0.27% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling temporarily as the port inventory is being depleted. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 6883 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6975 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%, down 0.11%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45%, up 0.64%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract increased by 18 yuan/ton to 6583 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained unchanged at 6615 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.04%. The LL - PP spread was 300 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [21][22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 64 yuan to 6332 yuan. The PX CFR price increased by 1 dollar to 784 dollars. The basis was 78 yuan (- 59 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 10 yuan (+ 6 yuan). The Chinese PX load was 84.9%, down 2.5%; the Asian load was 78%, down 1.9%. Some devices were under maintenance. The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. In early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 12.7 million tons, up 2.1 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons, up 1.9 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 246 dollars (+ 5 dollars), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 dollars (- 11 dollars) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. The new PTA device commissioning expectation suppresses the PTA processing fee, making it difficult to deplete PX inventory. It currently lacks driving forces, and its valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 30 yuan to 4414 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4320 yuan. The basis was - 88 yuan (- 3 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 2 yuan). The PTA load was 76%, up 1.6%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 10 was 216 million tons, up 5.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 115 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 12 yuan to 260 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, leading to a slight inventory increase. The processing fee is difficult to expand due to weak forward expectations. The polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure in the demand side are low, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 1 yuan to 4004 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan to 4075 yuan. The basis was 74 yuan (+ 2 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (+ 4 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, up 2.5%. The downstream load was 91.4%, down 0.1%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 80%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast was 5.3 million tons, and the East China departure on October 20 was 0.56 million tons. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 436 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 706 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 253 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price decreased to 780 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines increased to 660 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is expected to continue accumulating inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - For electrolytic nickel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, with an expected trading range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Given a loose fundamental situation, high inventory pressure, and low valuation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies, with an expected trading range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Due to weak fundamentals and declining cost support, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][122]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.89%. Trading volume reached 486,300 lots (+196,400), and open interest was 60,500 lots (-17,300). LME nickel dropped 1.11% weekly, with trading volume at 34,600 lots (-6,400) [12]. - The basis premium was 1,240 yuan/ton [14]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, as did the shipping price from the Philippines to China [21]. - In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease but a 33.9% YoY increase [26]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 707,000 tons MoM, and port inventories rose by 30,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 14 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel narrowed [33]. - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, up 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY. Imports are expected to decline in October [36]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate rose. RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [40]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those in Indonesia increased [44]. - Nickel pig iron inventories decreased [46]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [50]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel decreased [54]. - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, and exports decreased [58]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [63][111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, while imports rose by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY. October's import and export volumes are expected to be similar to September's [67][114]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel declined, while that of nickel sulfate increased, widening the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is minimal [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors increased by 16.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, and those of ternary materials rose by 4.3% MoM and 33.7% YoY [77]. - In October, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 5.1% MoM and 24.3% YoY [79]. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, up 16.3% MoM and 23.7% YoY; sales were 1.604 million units, up 15.0% MoM and 24.6% YoY [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventories and LME nickel inventories increased [86]. - Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventories remained unchanged, while the six - region social total inventory increased by 4,014 tons [91]. 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from purchased nickel sulfate increased, while that from purchased nickel matte and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte integrated production [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Wait and see. Expected trading range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Loose fundamentals, high inventory pressure, and low valuation suggest low - level price fluctuations [95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures trended downward, with a weekly decline of 1.64%. The basis shrank to 970 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 716,700 lots (+557,400), and open interest was 197,700 lots (+144,300) [98]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support [102]. - Losses in the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel expanded [107]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. October's volumes are expected to be similar to September's [114]. 2.4 Inventory Side - Stainless Steel - Total domestic stainless steel social inventories decreased. 200 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased, while 300 - series inventories increased [120]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies. Expected trading range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Weak fundamentals, loose cost support, and inventory patterns suggest weak price oscillations [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. On the one hand, cost increases provide support, and there are plans for manufacturers to halt production or reduce output. On the other hand, the post - holiday demand recovery is slow, and there is an imbalance between supply and demand in the downstream polysilicon market, with supply exceeding demand. The overall downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, a 9.75% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained sluggish. Polysilicon inventory was at a high level of 253,000 tons, while organic silicon inventory was at a low level of 55,100 tons with a production profit of - 582 yuan/ton. Alloy ingot inventory was also at a high level. The cost support in the Xinjiang region increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 20, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 420 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.09%, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling increased and was near the historical average level, while the demand recovery was at a low level. The cost support increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,445 - 8,685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The scheduled output for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer output last week was 14.35 GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, but the production was in a loss state. The battery cell production was also in a loss state, while the component production was profitable. The overall demand was expected to continue to recover [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 467,790 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 414,990 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 20, the basis of the 12 contract was - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 12 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling continued to increase, and the demand was expected to recover in the medium - term. The cost support was strengthened, and the polysilicon 2512 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,470 - 51,210 [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts showed an upward trend, with the 01 contract increasing by 0.91%, the 02 contract by 1.02%, etc. The social inventory increased by 3.12% week - on - week, while the main port inventory remained unchanged [14]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts decreased, with the 01 contract decreasing by 3.76%, the 02 contract by 3.86%, etc. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74%, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% [16]. 3. Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends in sample regions are presented through various charts [18][25][27][33]. - **Polysilicon**: The price trends, basis trends, and cost trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [22]. 4. Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon, indicating the overall supply - demand situation in different time periods [35][38]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon, indicating the supply - demand relationship in the polysilicon market [62]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, production trends, price trends, import - export, and inventory trends are presented [41][43][48]. Aluminum Alloy - The price and supply situation, inventory and production trends, and demand in the automotive and wheel hub sectors of the aluminum alloy market are presented [51][54][56]. Polysilicon Downstream - The cost trends, price trends, inventory trends, production trends, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories are presented [59][65][68][71][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side," suggesting a relatively cautious view of the energy and chemical industry [3][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's Q3 economic data is strong, but the weakness in the energy and chemical sector mainly stems from the supply side. The good economic data provides some support to the crude oil market, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [1]. - The export of chemical products in September generally maintained a good trend, with polyester products performing particularly well. Expanding overseas markets may be the future hope for the chemical industry [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is still anchored by crude oil and is expected to continue its weak oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP growth rate from January to September was 5.2%. In September, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year. The demand for petroleum in September increased by 6% year - on - year, continuing the positive year - on - year growth since June [1]. - The President of Ukraine stated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict will not end soon, but the pre - conditions for peace have emerged. Russia's oil transportation to India continues [8]. 3.2 Product - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Macroeconomic factors disrupt the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in an increasing phase dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC+ production. Later, there will be pressure on accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the peak and decline of refinery operations. Although China's inventory has decreased recently, overseas and sea - borne inventories have increased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still being realized. The fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and macro - risks are fluctuating. Oil prices are expected to continue their weak oscillation. If concerns about tariffs ease or there are temporary geopolitical risks, oil prices may rebound but the downward trend is difficult to reverse [8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price is testing the 3200 resistance level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the positive impact of China - US negotiations remains. In the short term, crude oil has entered an oscillation mode, and asphalt futures prices will follow the oscillation of crude oil. The asphalt spot price has been continuously falling, the asphalt - fuel oil price difference is expected to continue to decline, the asphalt production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force supporting the high premium of asphalt has significantly weakened. The pricing power of asphalt futures is expected to return to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure on asphalt inventory accumulation is still high. Currently, asphalt is still overvalued compared to crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the overvalued premium is starting to decline [9]. 3.2.3 Fuel Oil - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillation mode. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled. Among the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil (the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict), the Palestine - Israel conflict and the Russia - US call have a negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the fuel oil futures price will follow the oscillation of crude oil. As refinery operations increase, the demand for fuel oil processing by refineries gradually increases, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, the demand for residue processing is sluggish, and the peak power - generation season in the Middle East is coming to an end, so the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has declined following crude oil, and the 3500 resistance level is effective in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and substitution by high - sulfur fuel oil. It is undervalued and is expected to follow the movement of crude oil. Fundamentally, the reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil products in China and the cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO have increased the supply pressure of refined oil products in China. The pressure to reduce oil and increase chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, which is facing a trend of increased supply and decreased demand and may maintain a low - valuation operation [11]. 3.2.4 Chemical Products - **PX** - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price, but the processing margin has been repaired due to the improvement in supply - demand on a month - on - month basis. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. There is no obvious positive support from its own supply - demand, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The import volume of PX in September remained stable with narrow fluctuations. Under the situation of strong supply and demand of PX, and with the expected commissioning of PTA, there is some support for downstream demand, and the downward space for the processing margin is limited [12]. - **PTA** - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of new plant commissioning and restart, both the basis and the processing margin are under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost support is average, the atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and PTA follows the cost to oscillate and decline. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The new Fengming plant is about to be commissioned, so there is some supply pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and there is more speculative replenishment at low prices. Polyester factories have enough space to offer promotions after profit repair, and the sales volume has increased slightly. The overall price mainly fluctuates following the upstream and macro - economic sentiment [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Viewpoint**: After the profit improvement, there is more room for profit to promote sales, the inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the support for the low processing margin has increased. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is not good, and the short - fiber price has declined following the cost. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, short - fiber is still generally stronger than the upstream. There is still support at the low processing margin. After the weather turns cold, orders are being placed smoothly, and the export data is strong. There is no expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - fiber industry in the short term, and there is support for demand at the end of the peak season [21]. - **Bottle Chips** - **Viewpoint**: There is not much positive support from the fundamentals, and the low price stimulates the increase in speculative replenishment demand. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is average, and the bottle - chip price has declined following the cost. The spot processing margin has slightly decreased. The export data of polyester bottle chips in September was average, showing a decline compared to August. The demand is in the off - season, and there is no obvious driving force for supply - demand [22]. - **Styrene** - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is weak and inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene resumes its downward trend. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment for pure benzene in the future is still pessimistic. With styrene's own profit at a low level, the number of maintenance operations has increased, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. However, the biggest current pressure is the high port inventory. As the end - of - year seasonal inventory accumulation period approaches, the concern about over - inventory persists, dragging down the performance of the industrial chain prices [17]. - **Methanol** - **Viewpoint**: The coal end provides slight support, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the methanol futures price oscillated and may continue in the short term. The production enterprises are offering discounts to sell, and the downstream purchases on demand. The price is weakly declining. The port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, but considering the high probability of disturbances from Iran approaching winter, methanol still has value for long - position investment at low prices. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment in the energy and chemical industry, and the weakness of downstream olefins also limits the upward space of methanol. Therefore, it is advisable to view it as oscillating in the short term [26]. - **Urea** - **Viewpoint**: The price support of individual spot goods has weakened, and the urea futures price is continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the mainstream spot prices of urea in Shandong and Hebei declined, and the downstream's follow - up purchases were cautious. Fundamentally, both supply and demand have weakened to a certain extent. The operation rate is at a relatively low level, and the agricultural demand has not improved. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and there is no effective positive support, so the futures price shows a narrow - range oscillation [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of substantial positive factors, and it is in a low - level range adjustment without fundamental driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The overall atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and ethylene glycol oscillates and declines. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The operation rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and multiple integrated plants have restarted. Although there will be maintenance operations at Shell and Fulian plants later, they are all short - term shutdowns with limited impact. The port inventory continues to accumulate gradually, and the price is still under pressure under the expectation of weakening supply - demand [18]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)** - **Viewpoint**: The oil price is still weak, and plastic oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is still weak, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited. It is now in the second half of the "Golden September and Silver October" period. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of the price. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. In the short term, the futures price has slightly stabilized near the previous low, and the support strength should be monitored [31]. - **PP** - **Viewpoint**: The weakness of the oil price continues, and PP oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Currently, the production continues to increase year - on - year, but the demand support is limited, and the high - level inventory will still suppress the price performance. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. PP has slightly stabilized near 6600, and the focus of subsequent attention is the change in maintenance operations [32]. - **PVC** - **Viewpoint**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the cost is stable. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increased in mid - October, so the PVC production will decline; the downstream operation has recovered stage by stage, and only the low - price purchases have increased; the export order signing of PVC has improved; the operation rate of calcium carbide has decreased, and the number of PVC maintenance operations has increased, so the calcium carbide price is weakly stable; there coexist the marginal production reduction of alumina plants and the stockpiling for new plant commissioning, and the caustic soda spot may fluctuate narrowly. The static cost of PVC is 5190 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost is expected to remain stable [35]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the medium - and long - term demand growth for caustic soda may be limited, and the production may also increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, manifested as: the alumina market remains in surplus, and the industry profit is poor. Recently, marginal plants have started to reduce production; the procurement by Wenfeng has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but the caustic soda receipt volume of Weiqiao is equal to its daily consumption, and the caustic soda inventory of Weiqiao is high; the commissioning of a 4.8 - million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; the non - aluminum operation rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high, and the operation rate will decline from November to December; the production of caustic soda in late October is not high, and the production will increase after the end of maintenance and new plant commissioning in the future [36]. 3.3 Product Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., along with their changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, as well as their changes [39]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between different products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their changes [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices declined during the week due to lack of cost support. International oil prices dropped continuously because of signs of easing geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic PX开工 was at a high level for the year, and although there was a fire at a South Korean refinery, the PX device was not affected. Downstream demand did not improve significantly, leading to a price decline under weak cost and fundamentals [9]. - PTA prices also fell during the week due to the lack of cost support and the expectation of new device commissioning. The weakness of crude oil and PX negatively affected the PTA market sentiment. The potential trial - run of 2.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity in East China would increase the supply pressure. Although downstream开工 increased driven by the demand for warm - keeping products, the subsequent upward space was limited, and the fundamental boost to PTA was weakening [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil prices will fluctuate within a narrow range, waiting for the follow - up development of Sino - US trade issues. - For PX, due to sanctions, trade wars and other factors, the short - term production of some factories may be affected, thus affecting PX supply, but the overall开工 will remain at a high level. - For PTA, PTA factories have not further reduced production even under low - efficiency conditions, and the expectation of new device commissioning in East China suppresses market sentiment. It is expected that the开工 will remain at a high level. - For polyester, the polyester开工 load will be generally stable, and there are no planned start - up or shutdowns of polyester devices. At the end of the traditional peak demand season, it is estimated that polyester factories will not actively reduce production to maintain market share. - For the weaving industry, foreign customers are conservative in placing orders due to uncertain factors, resulting in slow placement of recent export orders. Domestic demand has increased, but factories are not optimistic about the subsequent market. - Overall, PX will operate weakly in the range of 6,150 - 6,350 yuan/ton; PTA will also operate weakly in the range of 4,300 - 4,500 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **Futures**: On October 17, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,292 yuan/ton, down 212 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.26%. The settlement price on October 17 was 6,334 yuan/ton, down 198 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.03% [14]. - **Spot**: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were acceptable, with a differentiated trend in the paper - spot market. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 131 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.50 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.97% [15][17]. 3.1.2 PTA - **Futures**: The price decline was dominated by cost. On October 17, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,402 yuan/ton, down 132 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.91%. The settlement price on October 17 was 4,424 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.85% [19][21]. - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere was average, mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There was concentrated trading on Friday, with an average daily trading volume of about 2 - 3 million tons. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 70 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 549.2 US dollars/ton, down 17.8 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of - 3.13%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,371.6 yuan/ton, down 108.07 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.41% [22][24]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - There were changes in the operation of PX devices in different regions. For example, in East China, some enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Sheng Hong Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical had different load - operation conditions. In North China, Urumqi Petrochemical stopped for maintenance on October 14, expected to last for 15 days. The overall domestic PX开工 rate remained at a high level, and the planned maintenance of domestic and foreign PX devices in the fourth quarter was limited [29][33]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some large - scale PTA devices were under maintenance, such as those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Yisheng Dahua. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 1.92% [36][37]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: European and American crude oil futures fell for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of more than 12%. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 57.15 US dollars/barrel, down 1.75 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 61.29 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The market was concerned about the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the price was affected by factors such as trade relations, supply and demand expectations, and geopolitical situations [42][44]. - **Naphtha**: The price continued to decline this week, and the economy rebounded slightly. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 550.25 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.72 US dollars/ton. The fundamental situation of naphtha did not change significantly, and the East - West arbitrage window remained open, with European naphtha flowing to Asia. The substitution effect of downstream LPG on naphtha affected some demand expectations, and the subsequent impact of sanctions and trade wars on naphtha remained to be evaluated [47][49]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The PXN margin rebounded slightly, and the short - process efficiency narrowed. The weekly average PXN was 236.92 US dollars/ton, a change of 7.36% from the previous period. The PX - MX margin remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 98.75 US dollars/ton. Due to the high domestic开工 rate and insufficient demand, the decline of PX was obvious, and the cash flow continued to narrow during the week, with short - process devices near the break - even point [50][52]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The boost of device short - stops to the processing fee was limited. From October 13 - 17, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 169.05 yuan/ton, compared with 202.90 yuan/ton last week. Although the production reduction plan temporarily increased the processing fee, the demand did not improve significantly, and it was difficult to improve the processing fee under weak cost and demand [54][56]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the PTA social inventory was 4.126 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week, a change of - 0.47% in the month - on - month growth rate. The decrease in inventory was due to device maintenance rather than demand improvement. The inventory days of PTA factories decreased by 0.14 days, while those of polyester factories increased by 1.15 days. As of October 16, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 4.08 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days. It was estimated that the upward space of the polyester开工 rate was limited in the later period, and the inventory - reduction rhythm would slow down [59][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The average weekly price of PTA declined, and the overall demand was weak, which was negative for the polyester market. The average market prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.47%, 0.82%, and 1.13% respectively from the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.45%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,600 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and the average weekly price was 5,710.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14% from the previous period. The average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.38%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.22% [67][75]. - **Weaving**: The new export orders were placed slowly, and the weaving market lacked confidence in the future market. With the significant drop in temperature in the north, the online sales of autumn and winter textile and clothing accelerated, driving the sales of thick fabrics such as autumn and winter velvet and woolen fabrics. The starting rate of warp - knitting enterprises increased steadily. However, there was a risk of escalation of Sino - US trade frictions after the festival, and some export enterprises were accelerating the production of existing orders to avoid potential impacts [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish view on the energy and chemical industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The core drivers in the current market are the supply surplus during the off - season, accelerated global crude oil inventory accumulation, and geopolitical easing, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [8] - For various energy and chemical products, most are facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, and inventory issues, resulting in a generally bearish or cautiously bearish outlook [1][2][5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical easing, supply surplus, and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1][8] - **Logic**: OPEC + plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. US inventories are rising during the consumption off - season. The IEA predicts higher supply growth and lower demand growth in 2025 - 2026 [1][9] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC at [430 - 440] [10] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. Cost - end oil price drag, rising transportation cost expectations, and weakening downstream demand [1][13] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weakening. China's counter - measures may increase transportation costs. Supply is relatively sufficient, and downstream chemical开工率 is declining [1][13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Cost support weakens, and supply remains loose [1][18] - **Logic**: New装置s are coming into operation, and the supply pattern remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking motivation is insufficient [18] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. The market maintains a bearish trend, focusing on the range of L at [6800 - 7000] [18] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Rising warehouse receipts and weak cost - end oil prices [1][23] - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, and the post - holiday inventory reduction is slow. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and there is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [23] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP at [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish rebound. Short - term rebound following coal prices, but supply - demand imbalance persists [1][27] - **Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to slight inventory reduction, but new产能 is being released, and demand faces uncertainties such as anti - dumping taxes [27] - **Strategy**: Lightly participate in short - term rebounds. Focus on the range of V at [4600 - 4800] [27] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Cost - end pressure and potential supply - demand improvement [1][28] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels [28] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of PX at [6310 - 6410] [29] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Inventory accumulation pressure and limited upward drivers [2][31] - **Logic**: Supply - end device maintenance and new装置s are coming into operation. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is inventory accumulation pressure from October to November [31] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of TA at [4420 - 4480] [32] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Supply - demand looseness and low valuation [2][34] - **Logic**: Domestic装置s are increasing production, overseas装置s have slight load reduction, and inventory is accumulating. Cost - end oil prices are under pressure [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG at [4010 - 4100] [35] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and weak fundamentals, but potential long - term opportunities [2][37] - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses prices. Supply pressure is large due to domestic装置maintenance and high import volume. Demand lacks obvious positive factors [37] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for long - position opportunities on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Weak domestic demand and high inventory, but export support [2][41] - **Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, and domestic demand is weak. However, fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long - term. Focus on the overall market situation of urea [40][42] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Sufficient supply and potential price decline [5] - **Logic**: US natural gas rig count is increasing, indicating sufficient supply. Although there is some demand support from temperature changes, the overall trend is bearish [5] - **Strategy**: Not specifically mentioned in the report Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. Cost - end pressure and supply - demand imbalance [5] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weakening, and the growth rate of asphalt production is higher than that of demand. Demand in the north is affected by weather [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish continuation. Weak demand and supply pressure [5] - **Logic**: There is no short - term macro - policy drive, real estate transaction area is weak, and factory inventory is increasing [5] - **Strategy**: Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average in the short term [5] Soda Ash - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish continuation. Supply surplus and industrial hedging pressure [5] - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, factory inventory is rising, and supply is loose. Demand is mostly for rigid needs [5] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds. Hold long positions on the soda - glass spread [5]