1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - April economic data declined compared to March but remained resilient under the tariff war. Social retail sales were up 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 up 8% year-on-year. The China-US joint statement and subsequent policies are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - The internal policy push is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded by about 4%. However, ROE is still at the bottoming stage. These measures will help companies repair their balance sheets and lift the stock market valuation [1]. - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts up 0.03%, the 5-year down 0.04%, and the 2-year down 0.03%. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and other factors have changed the bond market environment, and the short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: April economic data was resilient, and policies such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the entry of long-term funds into the market, are expected to support the stock market. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the stock market valuation is expected to rise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures had mixed performance, and the bond market environment has changed due to policy and economic factors. The short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: All major contracts of stock index futures declined, with IM down 1.56%, IC down 1.31%, IF down 0.89%, and IH down 0.53% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: All major stock indexes declined, with the CSI 1000 down 1.68%, the CSI 500 down 1.45%, the SSE 50 down 0.49%, and the SSE 300 down 0.91% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30-year and 10-year contracts rose, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell. The 30-year contract was up 0.15%, and the 10-year contract was up 0.02% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds showed different trends [3]. 3.3 Market News - In May, the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month, and the 1-year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts and their basis [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of various currency exchange rates, including the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB and other currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the market as a foundation for economic growth, highlighting the need for targeted, precise, and effective policies to strengthen market stability [1][2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy is expanding, with the number of eligible home appliance categories increasing from 8 to 12 by 2025, and local initiatives in Shenyang further expanding the categories to 35, indicating a robust consumer market [1][2] - The "Two New" policies have led to significant investment growth, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, and retail sales of consumer goods rising by 4.7% [2][3] Group 2 - The approach to market stability involves a gradual and methodical implementation of policies, ensuring that measures are adjusted dynamically based on current conditions [3][4] - The real estate sector is receiving focused support through coordinated financing mechanisms and lowered mortgage rates, with a notable increase in housing loans by over 750 billion yuan in the first quarter [4] - The overall market has ample space for growth, with expectations for more effective policies to enhance market vitality and stimulate demand [4]

1、 《 5月 LPR 报价下调，还有空间》摘要 4、 《 财险公司一季度经营透视》摘要 ■ 银行业绩分化加剧： 国有行净利润增速转正（+0.08%），但股份行、城农商行持续负增长；城农 商行利息净收入改善支撑其降幅收窄，关注区域性银行结构性机会。 ■ 息差 压力边际缓解 ： Q1净息差1.43%（同比-12BP），负债成本压降驱动降幅收窄；5月降准降息 叠加存款利率下行空间打开，后续息差企稳预期增强。 ■ 零售资产风险需警惕： 不良率环比升至1.51%，主因零售贷款风险暴露；中小银行（城农商行）不 良率上升明显，政策落地对居民收入改善效果成关键变量。 ■ 资本补充迫在眉睫： 核心一级资本充足率10.7%（环比下降），信贷开门红消耗资本；国有大行已 获1650亿特别国债注资，中小银行或借地方专项债补充资本 。 ■ 政策红利释放方向： 降准降息+结构性工具加码，支撑银行基本面修复；国有行资本充足率 （17.79%）和抗风险能力突出，高股息策略价值凸显。 ■ 行业整体高增长但分化加剧： 2025年Q1财险行业保费增5.4%、净利润同比+66.91%，但头部5家 公司（人保/平安/太保/国寿/英大）贡献超80%利润 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 4.65 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.5%, exceeding the high end of the revenue guidance [1][2] - The non-GAAP operating profit reached 110 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, and the non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 2.4% [2] - The company has strengthened its offline delivery capabilities, with a total of 1,886 stores across 283 cities and over 1,000 personnel in the delivery team [4] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 4.65 billion yuan, with 1P (self-operated) product sales contributing 4.26 billion yuan, a growth of 28.8% year-on-year, while 3P (platform) service revenue was 390 million yuan, up 14.2% [1][2] - Non-GAAP net profit was 78.04 million yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin increasing from 0.6% in the same period last year to 1.7% [2] - Cash and cash equivalents, restricted funds, short-term investments, and third-party payment platform account balances totaled 2.78 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025, ensuring stable operations [2] Business Development - The company has expanded its multi-category recycling services, with a nearly 200% year-on-year growth in transaction volume and revenue from multi-category recycling [4] - The C2B mobile digital recycling revenue grew over 50% year-on-year, driven by national subsidies and user demand from platforms like JD.com [4] - The company’s拍机堂 (Paimitang) platform has registered over 1 million merchants, with a double-digit year-on-year growth in trading merchants [5] Infrastructure and Service Enhancement - The first offline flagship store of拍机堂 was opened in Shenzhen, featuring a "warehouse-sales integration" model that allows for nearly 10,000 units available for immediate supply [5] - The company has improved its self-operated product retail, with toC revenue from self-operated products increasing by 73.5% year-on-year, and the toC share of 1P revenue rising to 33% [5] - The拍卖 (Pai Pai) consignment business saw a 220% year-on-year increase in sales across all categories, enhancing the experience for small and medium-sized merchants [5]

新华财经北京5月20日电（分析师刁倩）2025年5月19日，国家统计局发布数据显示，4月份，社会消费 品零售总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额33548亿元，增长5.6%。 按经营单位所在地分，县乡市场增长快于城镇。从消费类型看，服务零售市场稳中有升，出行类消费较 快增长。从零售业态来看，线上消费有所提升，实体店铺零售平稳增长。从具体商品分类来看，升级类 绿色类商品销售向好，以旧换新商品销售热度不减。 元，增长4.8%。 总的来看，今年以来政策效果继续显现，市场销售延续回升态势，消费市场稳定增长，消费新动能发展 壮大。但消费内生动力还需要进一步增强。下阶段，要实施好提振消费专项行动，继续提升居民消费能 力，增加优质供给，改善消费环境，更好释放消费潜力。 一、4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1%，消费市场持续稳定增长 2025年5月19日，国家统计局数据显示，4月份，社会消费品零售总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%。其 中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额33548亿元，增长5.6%。1—4月份，社会消费品零售总额161845亿元， 增长4.7%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额147 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场涨跌互现，Wind 全 A 上涨 0.17%，成交额 1.12 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 0.45%，中证 500 指数上涨 0.09%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.31%， | | | | 上证 50 指数下跌 0.43%。4 月经济数据整体较 3 月有一定程度下滑，但仍在 | | | | 关税战背景下保持韧性。其中社零同比 5.1%，继续受到"以旧换新"政策的 | | | | 明显支撑。4 月社会信贷需求偏弱，4 月累计新增人民币贷款 10.06 万亿元， | | | | 同比多增 2.86%；4 月 M2 同比 8%。此前中美发布联合声明，为后续进一步 | | | | 贸易协商奠定良好开局，超过市场预期。近期三部门召开联合新闻发布会， | | | 股指 | 央行宣布降准降息政策，降低企业负债端成本。金融监管总局强调将大力推 | 震荡 | | | 动中长期资金入市，通过类平准基金的方式支持、 ...

Economic Overview - In April, industrial and service sector weighted year-on-year growth was 6.1%, down from 6.8% in March but higher than the 5.7% in January-February[1] - April's export delivery value increased by only 0.9% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from March's 7.7%[2] - Retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from March, but still above 5%[4] Trade and Investment Insights - The contribution of export delivery value to industrial revenue dropped to approximately 0.1%, down from 0.8% in March, indicating a significant decline in export-driven growth[2] - Fixed asset investment in April showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with manufacturing investment slowing from 9.2% in March to 8.2% in April[3][6] - Equipment and tool purchases accounted for 64.5% of total investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% from January to April[6] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate sales in April saw a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in sales area and 6.7% in sales value, indicating a slowdown in the housing market[7] - The average price of new homes in April declined, with second-hand housing prices in 70 cities dropping by 0.4% month-on-month[7][8] - Financing for real estate development decreased by 4.1% year-on-year from January to April, reflecting a decline in pre-sale deposits and personal mortgage loans[7] Future Outlook - The potential for a new round of export growth is anticipated due to tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, which may lead to a surge in exports from mid-May to August[8] - Domestic policy adjustments may be delayed until August-September, with a focus on monetary easing as the economy stabilizes[9] - The stock market may experience narrow fluctuations, with a need for clear signals of fundamental recovery to drive further strength[9]

Core Insights - The "trade-in for new" policy in China is significantly boosting the automotive market, with a reported 10 million applications for subsidies, indicating strong consumer interest and activity in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "trade-in for new" policy has led to a notable increase in consumer activity, with the Ministry of Commerce reporting over 10 million applications for subsidies, including 3.225 million applications in 2025 alone [4]. - The policy has effectively stimulated consumption growth, green transformation, and resource recycling, with over 53% of trade-ins involving new energy vehicles [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are opting to trade in their old vehicles for new energy vehicles, with a significant number of trade-ins coming from brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi [3]. - Discounts and subsidies are making new energy vehicles more attractive, with some consumers reporting total savings of up to 34,000 yuan when trading in for models like the Li Auto L6Pro [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Companies like Li Auto have seen a substantial increase in trade-in orders, with over 10,000 orders reported as of May 18, and the Li L6 model being particularly popular [5]. - Xiaopeng Motors and Leap Motor have also experienced rapid sales growth, with Xiaopeng breaking traditional seasonal sales patterns and Leap Motor increasing monthly sales from 10,000 to 40,000 units since the policy's implementation [6]. Group 4: New Product Launches - The automotive industry is actively launching new models to attract consumers, with companies like Xiaomi, Great Wall, and NIO introducing new vehicles to enhance market offerings [7]. - NIO plans to release nine new models this year, with significant promotional offers for early reservations, indicating a competitive push in the market [7].

Economic Overview - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March[2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous month's 4.2%[2] - The industrial added value for large enterprises rose by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease from 7.7% in March[2] Industrial Performance - The industrial production growth rate remains above last year's average of 5.6%, despite a slight decline due to reduced "export rush" effects[2] - High-tech manufacturing saw a growth rate of 10.0%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points[2] - Exports showed a decline, with the export delivery value dropping to 0.9% year-on-year in April[2] Consumer Behavior - Offline consumption rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in April[2] - The "trade-in" effect contributed notably to retail growth, with categories like home appliances and office supplies seeing retail growth rates of 38.8% and 33.5%, respectively[2] - Jewelry retail sales increased by 25.3%, driven by high gold prices[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth showed a slight decline, with real estate investment remaining low at a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%[2] - Infrastructure investment growth rates were 9.6% for broad infrastructure and 5.8% for narrow infrastructure in April[2] - Real estate sales continued to weaken, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8%[2] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may provide a temporary boost to exports in the second quarter[2]

证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《3 月社零同比+5.9%，促消费政策加力 实施——3 月社会零售品消费数据点评》 2025/04/17 《1-2 月社零同比+4%，政策定调提振消 费——1-2 月社会零售品消费数据点评》 2025/03/19 券 研 究 联系人 赵令伊 (8621)23297818× zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 19 日 4 月社零同比+5.1%，政策支持下 内需展现强韧性 看好 ——4 月社会零售品消费数据点评 ⚫ 风险提示：①终端消费需求不及预期。②政策落地效果不及预期。③行业竞争加剧。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 报 告 本期投资提示： ⚫ 2025 年 4 月社会零售总额同比增长 5.1%，略低于市场一致预期。4 月扩内需仍为政策 主线，政治局会议重点提及大力发展服务消费，商务部组织协会、大型商超进行座谈切 实推进外贸企业出口转内销 ...