重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：以色列袭击伊朗，油价大幅上涨拉动PTA价格上行，但PTA自身前期检修装置陆续重启，叠加新装置投产，供需格局转 弱，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，基差方面，短期内现货市场货源偏紧，现货基差偏强运行，伴随供应回归后续有 回落预期。关注伊以局势发展。 1、基本面：周五，部分聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出7月货源。下周货在09+220~227附近有成交，价格商谈区间在 4860~5160附近，夜盘价格偏低端。6月底在09+210~220附近有成交。7月中在09+180有成交，7月下在09+170有成交，供应商7 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间16日凌晨，伊朗首都德黑兰上空再度传出密集爆炸声。以色列军队当天袭击伊朗首都德黑兰及马拉德、马什哈德等地，德黑兰多个 地点传出密集爆炸声。伊朗防空部队在德黑兰西部击落数架以色列无人机。 据伊朗卫生部当地时间6月15日夜间消息，截至目前，以色列袭击已致伊朗224人死亡，另有1200多人受伤。 当地时间6月15日晚，伊朗武装部队通过伊朗国家电视台发布视频声明，敦促以色列居民远离"重要区域"，以确保自身安全。该声明发布之际，伊朗正向 以色列发射新一波导弹。据以色列《耶路撒冷邮报》15日报道，伊朗当晚对以色列发动的新一轮导弹打击已造成至少15人受伤，并在以色列北部城市海法 引发大火。 华泰证券认为，考虑此次地缘冲突或将导致伊朗短期原油供应下滑，同时对霍尔木兹海峡这一石油运输要道造成潜在扰动，叠加北半球传统石油消费旺季 将至，国际油价短期或将在相对高位震荡。双方军事冲突有所扩大，后续需关注伊朗是否会采取极端行动，以及周边油气生产国的应对措施。另一方面， 油价上涨至相对高位或将导致美国通胀水平提升，进一步延后美联储降息时点，提升美国财政压力，美方对此次冲突的态度亦值得关注。长期来看，产油 国"利重于量 ...

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油价、黄金继续走高，股市恐慌情绪有所缓和。 受到中东冲突升级影响，国际油价持续走高。上周五（6月13日），美油、布油均收涨超7%。周一（6月16日），国际油价再大幅高开，美油盘初涨超6%，截至 发稿，美油、布油涨幅均接近2%。 | W | NYMEX WTI原油 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CL.NYM | | | | | | | 74.36 | | 昨结 | 72.98 | 总手 | | 3.19万 | | +1.38 | | +1.89% 开盘 | 76.54 | 现手 | | 1 | | 最高价 | 77.49 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 畳 | | 1.42万 | | 最低价 | 74.23 | 博 仓 | -14.45万 | 内 盘 | | 1.77万 | | 关时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | | 中文 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:75.41 | | | | 77.49 | | | | 6.18% 立- ग्रे | 74.38 74.36 | 1 2 | | | | | | 19: ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of major A-share indices is officially implemented today, with significant changes in sample stocks across various indices, which may impact market dynamics and investment strategies [2][4][24]. Index Adjustments - The Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50 will see sample stock adjustments, with 20, 8, 3, and 5 stocks added or removed respectively [2][4]. - The Shanghai indices, including SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, and STAR 50, collectively replaced 61 sample stocks, effective from June 13 [2][23]. - The total number of sample stocks changed across six major cross-market indices is 187, with significant adjustments in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [9][23]. New Additions and Removals - The Shenzhen Component Index will include stocks such as Zhongtung High-tech and Gansu Energy, while removing stocks like Nanbo A and Tianmao Group [5]. - The ChiNext Index will add BlueFocus and Changying Precision, while removing stocks like Anke Bio and Steel Research [6]. - The ChiNext 50 Index will include stocks like Robot and BlueFocus, while removing stocks such as Lepu Medical and Watson Bio [7]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index will add stocks like Lingyi Zhi Zao and Runze Technology, while removing TCL Zhonghuan and Nasda [8]. Industry Weightings - The strategic emerging industries' weight in the ChiNext Index has reached 92%, with significant contributions from new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology [8]. - The strategic emerging industries' weight in the Shenzhen 100 Index has increased to 76%, focusing on advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green low-carbon sectors [9]. Market Outlook - Investors are closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical tensions on commodity and capital markets, with some analysts suggesting that short-term shocks may present buying opportunities [3][25]. - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to unveil significant financial policies, which could positively influence market sentiment and support A-share stability [26].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of geopolitical conflicts on investment opportunities, particularly focusing on the energy sector, financial markets, and the innovative pharmaceutical industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Conflict Impact**: If the Israel-Palestine conflict does not escalate, gold and oil prices are expected to rise by approximately 5% over the next two weeks. Conversely, U.S. stocks may decline by 1-3%, while A-shares could drop around 5% [1][3][13]. 2. **Market Pressures**: The current market faces multiple pressures, including a slowdown in policy trading, increased geopolitical risks, and high levels of small-cap stock crowding. This suggests a need for investors to avoid short-term volatility and shift towards large-cap stocks [1][4][5]. 3. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas to watch include: - Energy chain (oil and gas, shipping, and services), particularly low-valuation shipping stocks. - Large financial institutions, including regional banks and undervalued insurance companies in Hong Kong. - The public transportation sector benefiting from the summer peak season and reduced working hours [1][6]. 4. **Innovative Pharmaceutical Sector**: The innovative pharmaceutical market is currently at its highest crowding level in three years, yet there remains potential for growth. Focus should be on the ChiNext and STAR Market for innovative drugs [1][7][11][12]. 5. **U.S. CPI and Interest Rate Outlook**: The U.S. CPI is on a downward trend, reducing pressure for interest rate cuts. The upcoming FOMC meeting may signal future rate cuts, with expectations of a stable U.S. Treasury yield [1][8]. 6. **ETF Fund Flow and Small-Cap Stock Crowding**: As the Shanghai Composite Index approaches 3,400 points, ETF turnover rates are declining, indicating potential outflows. High levels of small-cap stock crowding suggest an impending correction in the A-share market [1][9]. 7. **Market Style Shift**: Since July 2024, small-cap stocks have seen significant gains, but as crowding levels peak, a shift towards large-cap stocks is anticipated, which could help avoid short-term adjustments and yield excess returns [2][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Innovative Drug Crowding**: The current crowding level in the innovative drug sector is 1.6 times, surpassing previous peaks in 2022. However, compared to the 2021 highs, there is still considerable room for growth [11][12]. 2. **Geopolitical Conflict Scenarios**: The impact of geopolitical conflicts varies; larger events like 9/11 or the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to significant market declines, while regional conflicts may have a more muted effect [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.79%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. The sub-sectors saw significant gains, with new materials up 8.62%, precious metals up 6.13%, industrial metals up 3.34%, energy metals up 2.29%, and minor metals up 2.17% [1][13] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting market sentiment, particularly affecting industrial metals, while precious metals like gold are benefiting from a declining US dollar index and increased safe-haven demand due to these tensions [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.79%, outperforming the index by 4.04 percentage points [13] - The non-ferrous metals sub-sectors all saw increases, with the new materials sector leading [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have declined due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, with LME copper at $9,648/ton, down 0.24% week-on-week, and SHFE copper at ¥78,010/ton, down 1.17% [2][31] - Aluminum prices increased, with LME aluminum at $2,503/ton, up 2.10%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,440/ton, up 1.84%. Low inventory levels and rising overseas oil prices are supporting aluminum prices [3][35] - Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,627/ton, down 1.35%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,815/ton, down 2.55% [38] - Tin prices rose, with LME tin at $32,780/ton, up 1.63%, and SHFE tin at ¥263,690/ton, up 0.03% [41] Precious Metals - Gold prices surged, with COMEX gold at $3,452.60/oz, up 3.65%, and SHFE gold at ¥794.36/g, up 1.42%. The decline in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions are driving this increase [4][44]

Market Overview - The market returned to a volatile range from June 9-13, with the Wind All A closing at 5142.43, down 0.27% from June 6, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell 0.02%[8] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Wind All A has increased by 2.40%, and the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 4.65%[8] External Factors - The second round of China-US trade talks and escalating Middle East tensions were key trading cues, leading to increased market volatility[2] - The US CPI data indicated limited impact from tariffs on prices, supporting expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while geopolitical conflicts pushed oil prices higher[2][36] Strategy Insights - Following the second round of trade talks, market adjustment pressures stem from external uncertainties, particularly from the Middle East and potential changes in US tariff policies[3] - Historical data shows that after significant geopolitical conflicts, the Wind All A typically experiences a recovery around 14 trading days later, with technology and dividend sectors showing notable excess returns[3][39] Market Dynamics - The congestion level of the China 2000 index has decreased significantly, currently at the 79.3 percentile since September 2023, indicating improved structural issues in the small-cap market[16] - Investors are favoring industries with lower congestion levels while avoiding those with higher congestion, maintaining a "rotation thinking" approach in trading strategies[19][20] Convertible Bond Valuation - Convertible bond valuations have generally declined, particularly for crowded debt-type products, with the valuation center for 80 yuan parity dropping to 46.85%[23] - The valuation for 100 yuan parity has decreased to 26.37%, reflecting a broader trend of valuation adjustments in the convertible bond market[23][29]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述：地缘冲突带来不确定性，短期多配 ➢ 国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格继续偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2300-2420元/吨，广东价格波动在2280-2320元/吨。港口甲醇市场由 于对市场可流通量的担忧，月内买气好转，推动市场价格上涨，基差走强，但涨至高位后，市场买气走弱，价格窄幅回落，但整体仍维持强势运行为 主。本期内地甲醇市场小幅推涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1883-1897元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2150-2160元/吨。受宏观 情绪影响，盘面及港口价格上调，产区企业走量不走价积极超卖，叠加烯烃外采需求尚存，价格处于相对低位吸引部分贸易商介入，周内多数产区工 厂出货顺畅。 (隆众资讯） ➢ 基本面：本周 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the expected growth in the industry, with a projected increase in revenue by 6% from 2025 to 2026, driven by rising demand and favorable market conditions [4][6][8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic indicators such as CPI and PPI, which are expected to influence market dynamics significantly [4][5][8] - The analysis suggests that companies within the sector are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends, particularly in sustainable practices and technological advancements [3][4][6] Industry Overview - The industry is experiencing a shift towards more sustainable practices, with a notable increase in investments in green technologies [4][5] - Market competition is intensifying, with several key players expanding their market share through strategic partnerships and acquisitions [3][4] - The report indicates that regulatory changes are likely to impact operational costs and market entry strategies for new entrants [4][5][6] Company Analysis - Specific companies are highlighted for their innovative approaches and strong financial performance, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4] - The report identifies potential risks associated with supply chain disruptions and fluctuating raw material costs, which could affect profitability [4][5] - Companies that adapt quickly to changing consumer preferences and invest in digital transformation are likely to outperform their peers [3][4][6]