西班牙经济部长：（就特朗普威胁对西班牙因国防开支争端而加倍关税一事）贸易谈判属于欧盟委员会 的职责范围。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners, highlighting the likelihood of a framework agreement being reached by July 9, followed by further negotiations [1][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Negotiations - Most U.S. trading partners prefer to reach a preliminary agreement by July 9, after which detailed discussions will continue [1][7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the U.S. might extend negotiation deadlines for countries engaging in good faith discussions, such as the EU [6][8]. - President Trump expressed a willingness to extend negotiation deadlines but deemed it unnecessary, stating that the U.S. is negotiating with about 15 economies [6][8]. Group 2: EU's Position - The EU anticipates that negotiations will extend beyond the July 9 deadline, aiming for a principle agreement before focusing on specifics [7][9]. - The EU's goal is to reduce additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on sectors like steel and automobiles, while acknowledging the challenge of eliminating the 10% baseline tariff [9][11]. - EU officials are preparing for potential retaliatory measures against the U.S. if negotiations do not yield a fair agreement, including tariffs on $95 billion worth of U.S. goods [11][12]. Group 3: Other Countries' Negotiations - Trade discussions with India and Japan are ongoing but have seen limited progress, particularly on agricultural issues and automotive tariffs [13][15]. - India is resistant to U.S. demands regarding genetically modified crops, while seeking tariff exemptions [14]. - Japan faces challenges with U.S. automotive tariffs, which remain a significant barrier to reaching an agreement [15].

跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰：对7月9日前的贸易谈判持乐观态度。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU is preparing to escalate countermeasures against the US tariffs in order to negotiate better agreements [1][5] - Most US trading partners prefer to reach a preliminary agreement with the US by July 9, followed by further negotiations [1][3] - The EU aims to reduce additional tariffs imposed by the US on sectors like steel and aluminum, while acknowledging the difficulty in eliminating the baseline 10% tariff on EU exports [4][5] Group 2 - The US government is likely to extend the negotiation deadlines for countries that are seen as negotiating in good faith, such as the EU [3][4] - The EU is preparing a package of tariffs on US goods worth €95 billion as a countermeasure if negotiations do not yield favorable results [5] - Other countries like India and Japan are also in negotiations with the US, but progress has been limited due to disagreements on key issues such as agricultural products and automotive tariffs [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the container shipping market, due to the cease - fire news between Iran and Israel and some shipping companies reducing spot prices, most contracts declined except the 06 contract. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the long - term freight rate is not expected to be overly high under the background of the tariff trade war. It is recommended to operate with caution [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped to a more than two - week low due to the decline in capesize ship freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, while the medium - sized ship market is expected to show an oscillating trend [13][17]. - In the tanker shipping market, the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil shipping market, and the BDTI has rebounded. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On June 24, 2025, most container shipping futures contracts declined, with EC2508 closing at 1772 points, down 5.49% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1937.14 points, up 14.11% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $1835/TEU on June 20, down 0.49% month - on - month [2][4]. - Logic Analysis: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered. Maersk's reduction of spot prices in the second week of July has led to concerns about an inflection point. In terms of demand, the possible extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations reduces the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from June to September 2025 is expected to increase in July. The repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cause the far - month contracts to fall again [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is weakly oscillating. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7]. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the comprehensive PMI was 52.8. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh is severely congested. There are repeated developments in the Iran - Israel cease - fire news [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a more than two - week low, with the capesize ship freight index dropping and the panamax ship freight index rising [13]. - Spot Freight Rates: On June 23, the freight rates of some capesize ship routes declined, while those of some panamax ship routes increased [14]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazil's soybean export is expected to reach 1437 tons in June. In May, China's imports of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [15]. - Logic Analysis: The capesize ship market is pessimistic about future freight rates, and the panamax ship market has a slight increase in freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to oscillate [17]. Industry News - The inventory of seven major iron ore ports in Australia and Brazil increased. Typhoon "Sepat" is approaching Japan [18][19]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Rates: On June 23, the Baltic Crude Oil Transport Index (BDTI) was 1099, up 4.27% month - on - month, and the Baltic Product Oil Transport Index (BCTI) was 720, up 1.69% month - on - month. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums [21]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term demand is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the impact of market sentiment on freight rates needs to be observed [21]. Industry News - Israel will strongly respond to Iran's violation of the cease - fire. HSBC predicts the future trend of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production and exports increased in April [22][24]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures in the report, including the SCFIS European and US West lines index, SCFI comprehensive index, BDI index, BDTI, and BCTI, etc., which visually present the historical trends of relevant data [25][33][39].

印度财长称，印度与美国和欧盟的贸易谈判正在紧密进行中。 ...

Group 1 - The Thai Finance Minister anticipates that trade negotiations with the United States will be extended following a 90-day suspension of tariffs [1]

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：仍在为下一轮贸易谈判的时机而努力。 ...

Group 1 - The core discussion between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and U.S. President Trump focused on alleviating the Middle East conflict [1] - They emphasized the commitment to strengthening NATO at the upcoming summit [1] - The conversation also included updates on ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries [1]

今起加征。 据央视新闻此前报道，美国商务部宣布将自6月23日起对多种钢制家用电器加征关税，包括洗碗机、洗衣机和 冰箱等"钢铁衍生产品"。 据美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）发布的通知，此次关税调整将八大类家用电器及相关产品新增为"钢铁衍生 产品"，统一适用50%的税率。征税金额将根据各类产品中所含钢铁组件的价值进行核算。 八类家用电器及相关产品，具体包括组合式冰箱、冷冻柜；小型和大型干衣机；洗衣机；洗碗机；卧式和立式 冷冻柜；烹饪炉、灶具和烤箱；食物垃圾处理器；焊接金属架等。 新规适用于美国东部时间2025年6月23日凌晨00:01或之后入境或从仓库提取的商品。不过，该政策也设定了例 外条款，如果产品使用的是在美国本土熔铸的钢铁原料，即便在海外完成加工，也可以享受免税待遇。 此次是美国总统特朗普政府自3月抬高进口钢铝关税以来的第二次扩展关税产品范围。 据了解，特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。3月12日，特朗普 对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普 宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50 ...