白宫新闻秘书：欧盟在贸易谈判中持续表现出极大热情。 ...

欧元兑美元跌0.4%，暂报1.1588。 丹麦经济部长Lose称，欧盟准备在与美国谈判贸易问题时捍卫自身利益。 欧盟必须警惕（美国总统特朗普挑起的关税造成的）欧盟企业所承担的额外税负。 ...

丹麦经济大臣：欧盟准备在与美国的贸易谈判中维护自身利益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on global trade and the economy, highlighting the ongoing negotiations and the reactions from various countries and economic experts [1][5][9]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Negotiations - President Trump announced that over 150 countries may face a tariff increase of 10% to 15% if they do not reach favorable trade agreements with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various trade partners, with specific rates for countries like Japan (25%), Thailand (36%), and Canada (35%) [3][5]. - The European Union has prepared a countermeasure list worth €72 billion, including products like Boeing aircraft and automobiles, in response to the proposed tariffs [5][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Financial markets showed a muted response to the tariff announcements, with slight increases in major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1]. - Economic data indicates rising inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.7% year-on-year in June, suggesting that tariffs are contributing to upward price pressures [8]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that the tariff policies could disproportionately impact the least developed countries, predicting a potential 54% decline in exports for these economies [9]. Group 3: Expert Opinions on Negotiation Strategies - Experts suggest that the high-pressure negotiation tactics employed by the Trump administration may backfire, leading to distrust among trade partners and complicating future agreements [6]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies is causing businesses to hesitate in decision-making, which could further suppress international trade [9].

Group 1: Trade Policy and Negotiations - The U.S. government is warning over 150 countries about potential tariff increases of 10% to 15% if they do not reach favorable trade agreements with the U.S. [1] - Trump has extended the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, with proposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, and up to 50% on Brazil [4] - The EU has strongly reacted to the proposed 30% tariffs, stating they are unacceptable and preparing a countermeasure list valued at €72 billion [6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Financial markets showed a muted response to the tariff announcements, with slight increases in major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1] - Analysts suggest that the stock market tends to ignore low-probability tail risks but may react sharply if the likelihood of significant tariffs increases [2] - Recent U.S. economic data indicates rising inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.7% year-over-year, leading to concerns about future cost pressures on consumers [8] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - The UNCTAD has warned that U.S. tariff policies are causing significant distortions in global supply chains, predicting a potential 54% drop in exports for the least developed countries [9] - The organization has revised the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.8% to 2.3% due to the uncertainties surrounding trade policies [9] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, highlighted major risks to the U.S. economy, including trade uncertainties and high asset prices [9]

日本政府周四公布的数据显示，今年上半年，日本陷入了2.2万亿日元的贸易逆差。这主要是因为美国 总统特朗普的关税政策对日本出口造成了冲击。 上个月，日本的出口额同比下降0.5%，此前5月份已下降1.7%。其中，日本对美国的出口在6月份下降 了11%，汽车出口更是暴跌26.7%。此前，美国已于今年4月对汽车进口加征了25%的关税。 与此同时，日本对中国的出口也下降了近5%。对墨西哥的出口下降了近20%，墨西哥是日本汽车制造 商在北美的重要汽车组装中心。特朗普已将上调进口关税的实施日期推迟至8月1日，以便为谈判争取时 间，但到目前为止，双方尚未达成任何协议。 上个月，日本出口总额接近9.2万亿日元，这是连续第二个月出现下滑。随着进口小幅增长0.2%，当月 贸易顺差为1530亿日元，而5月份则出现了6376亿日元的贸易逆差。 今年上半年，日本出口总额达到53.4万亿日元，增长3.6%；进口总额为55.6万亿日元，增长1.3%。 日本和美国一直在进行贸易谈判，日本官员强调日本是美国的重要盟友。海关数据显示，2024年日本近 五分之一的出口流向美国，因此达成一项贸易协议对日本经济至关重要。 特朗普政府一直关注大米，这个领 ...

据媒体报道，欧盟在与美国进行贸易谈判期间搁置对埃隆·马斯克旗下X平台的调查。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump said he would not consider firing the Fed Chairman for the time being, easing market concerns, boosting risk appetite, and causing oil prices to rebound. Meanwhile, the decline in EIA crude oil inventories also supported oil prices. However, the accumulation of gasoline and refined oil in the downstream and the decline in gasoline production have worried the market about the lack of optimism in summer peak demand, limiting the upside of oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term trading is expected to be in the range of 513 - 523, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Trump said he doesn't plan to fire the Fed Chairman, EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail, and gasoline demand decline during the summer driving season is disappointing. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.22 per barrel, and the basis was 8.60 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 163.7 barrels; EIA inventory decreased by 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 55.2 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 21.3 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 451.7 barrels. The overall situation is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is near the moving average, a bearish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 8, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.50, - 0.46, - 0.80, and - 2.24 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.72%, - 0.69%, - 0.15%, and - 3.09% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by - 0.54, - 0.46, - 1.87, - 1.89, and - 2.28 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.75%, - 0.69%, - 2.59%, - 2.73%, and - 3.15% [9]. 2. Recent News - Trump's potential replacement of the Fed Chairman caused market fluctuations, but he later said there was no current plan. Market participants have different views on this event. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail. Trump also mentioned possible tariff rates for Japan and a potential trade agreement with India [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **API Inventory Trend**: From May 2 to July 11, API inventory showed fluctuations, with an increase of 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [10]. - **EIA Inventory Trend**: From May 9 to July 11, EIA inventory also fluctuated, with a decrease of 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 25,319 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds also fluctuated, with an increase of 55,630 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [19].

在与美国的贸易谈判中，印度的目标是获得比印尼更低的关税。 （印度《铸币报》） ...

加拿大总理卡尼：（谈及软木木材问题）是与美国谈判中的首要优先事项，希望能在解决其他贸易问题 的同时一并达成协议。 ...