近期召开的中央政治局会议提出，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。多位专家认 为，这意味着加快财政支出节奏是当前财政政策的实施重点。"接下来，新增专项债发行节奏可能加 快，超长期特别国债发行期数已经确定，可能会适度提高5月、6月的单只发行额度。"华西证券首席经 济学家刘郁认为。（中证报） ...

Group 1 - The central government has emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announcing a series of measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [2][5] - The PBOC's recent report indicates that monetary policy will continue to support the economy, focusing on implementation and effectiveness evaluation [2][5] - The report highlights the need for increased counter-cyclical adjustments due to external uncertainties affecting exports, particularly from U.S. tariff policies [3][4] Group 2 - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to support fiscal policy, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds [4] - The PBOC aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market to support these fiscal measures, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [6][7] - The report outlines specific policy tools to support sectors such as technology finance, green finance, and small and micro enterprises, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in new funding [7] Group 3 - The PBOC is maintaining a focus on the stability of the financial markets, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in the international financial markets due to U.S. trade policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, reflecting concerns over banks' net interest margins [5][9] - The PBOC's assessment of government debt sustainability indicates that China's fiscal policy still has room for expansion, supporting the notion of continued monetary easing [10] Group 4 - The report expands its focus to include various economic indicators, such as the evolution of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and the sustainability of government debt, reflecting a comprehensive approach to monetary policy [9][10] - The PBOC acknowledges the current low inflation environment and the need for policies that stimulate effective demand while managing supply-side constraints [10][11] - The overall strategy involves deepening structural reforms and coordinating various policy measures to achieve a balance between supply and demand, while fostering a conducive environment for reasonable price recovery [11]

"5·07"增量政策不低于市场预期甚至某些方面还略超出了市场期待，但总体上是落实前述政治局会议的 部署。 在外部环境不确定性挑战和新旧动能转换压力的背景下，5月7日，中国出台了一揽子稳市场稳预期的金 融增量政策（下称"5·07"增量政策）。与去年9月24日出台的一揽子金融增量政策（下称"9·24"增量政 策）相比，当前国内金融市场反应显得较为克制。 增量政策范围广、措施多、落地快 去年7月30日的中央政治局会议在强调坚定不移完成全年经济社会发展目标任务的同时，明确提出宏观 政策要持续用力、更加给力。要加强逆周期调节，实施好积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，加快全面 落实已确定的政策举措，及早储备并适时推出一批增量政策举措。但是，"9·24"增量政策力度之大、范 围之广依然超出了市场预期。 当时，国新办在股市开盘前的九点安排了新闻发布会，会上宣布了一揽子金融增量政策。其中：降息20 个基点、降准0.5个百分点，其力度都是超常规的；创设稳股市的两项结构性货币政策工具，显示央行 用实际行动支持资产价格稳定，这也大大出乎了市场意料。 两天之后9月26日的政治局会议才揭晓了"5·07"增量政策出台的背景和思路。会议指出， ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend of the RMB exchange rate, with a slight appreciation in financial rates and a significant depreciation in trade rates, is deemed appropriate for stabilizing cross-border capital flows and promoting exports [2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Characteristics - The RMB experienced a sudden depreciation shock due to increased tariffs, with the onshore rate touching 7.35 and offshore rate reaching 7.4295 in early April [4]. - Despite a significant depreciation of the USD by over 9% from the beginning of the year to April 21, the RMB only appreciated by 0.8% onshore and 1.3% offshore, indicating unexpected stability [5]. - The onshore and offshore markets have shown good linkage, with a minimal average difference of only 3 basis points, which supports exchange rate stability [5]. - The RMB trade rate has depreciated significantly, with the CFETS index down 5.2% and the BIS currency basket down 4.8%, while the financial rate against the USD only appreciated by 0.5% [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - Key factors affecting the RMB exchange rate include tariffs and trade surplus, with a notable trade surplus of 2.64 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year despite increased tariffs [6]. - The inverted yield curve between China and the US has been significant, with a current inversion of around 260 basis points, which is expected to persist due to differing monetary policies [6][8]. - Cross-border capital flows have remained stable, with a net inflow of 51.7 billion USD in the first quarter, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing asset prices [6]. - The exchange rate pricing mechanism has shown a systematic slight positive bias, which is crucial for stabilizing expectations [7]. - Foreign exchange reserves increased by over 40 billion USD in April, contributing positively to exchange rate stability [8]. - A proactive fiscal policy has been implemented, with a completion rate of 24.5% for the annual budget in the first quarter, which is higher than in previous years [8]. - The financial package announced on May 7 includes interest rate cuts and liquidity releases, which are aimed at stabilizing asset prices and cross-border capital flows [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Responses - Future RMB exchange rate movements will be influenced by US tariffs and interest rates, with a focus on economic fundamentals [9]. - If the US economy faces significant pressure and interest rates are cut substantially, the RMB may experience upward pressure [10]. - Maintaining stability in the RMB/USD exchange rate is crucial for managing uncertainties and supporting exports, while also ensuring stable cross-border capital flows [10].

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年5月11日 | 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 | | --- | | 从业资格证号： F3063825 | 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年5月11日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 4月物价保持低位 摘要 4月份全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比下降0.1%，市场预期下降0 .15%，3月同比下降0.1%。1-4月平均，全国居民消费价格比上年同 期下降0.1%。4月和一季度对比，消费物价继续保持在低位。 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 4月CPI环比上涨0.1%，前值环比下降0.4%。4月食品价格环比上 涨0.2%，前值环比下降1.4%。4月非食品价格环比上涨0.1%，前值环 比下降0.2%；4月消费品价格环比持平，前值环比下降0.4%；4月服 务价格环比上涨0.3%，前值环比下降0.4%。4月核心CPI环比上涨0. 2%，3月核心CPI环比持平。4月核心CPI环比上涨，显示在波动比较 大的食品和能源之外的通胀水平环比小幅上涨。细 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 从环比看，CPI由降转升，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食品、出行服务回升带动。 5月10日，国家统计局发布的物价数据显示，4月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.4%转为上 涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.5%。 "4月CPI同比增速大致符合市场预期，环比增速由降转升至0.1%，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食 品、出行服务回升带动。4月PPI同比增速录得-2.7%，略好于市场预期，环比下降0.4%，主要受4月国际定价的大 宗商品价格下行等输入性因素影响，关税等国际经贸环境变化对PPI的影响暂未充分显现。"浙商证券首席经济学 家李超对《华夏时报》记者分析表示。 "虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业价格产生一定下拉影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性强，各项宏观政策协同发力， 高质量发展扎实推进，部分领域价格呈现积极变化。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读数据时表示。 按照预测，二季度经济相较一季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低后稳的U型走势，物价回升 ...

央视网消息：5月9日，中国人民银行发布2025年一季度中国货币政策执行报告。报告显示，一季度货币政策逆周期调节效果明显，人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 专家表示，从一季度货币政策报告可以看出具体政策操作进一步优化，比如调整中期借贷便利（MLF）中标方式、优化两项资本市场支 持工具，将支农再贷款和支小再贷款合并为支农支小再贷款等。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示，在各项货币政策支持下，货币信贷合理增长，社会综合融资成本稳步下行，信贷结构进一步优化，持续多 年、多次降准降息的累积效应不断显现，社会融资环境总体处于较为宽松状态。 一季度货币政策执行报告解读：加大支持实体经济力度 支持扩大消费 专家表示，一季度货币政策执行报告中，新的政策信号不断释放，包括进一步加大支持实体经济力度、支持扩大消费等。 在进一步加大支持实体经济力度方面，报告释放出积极的信号，货币政策持续保持适度宽松力度。在支持扩大消费方面，报告对此进行了 专题论述，5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款也于9日正式推出。市场预计，未来服务领域的消费潜力有望进一步激发释放。 我国广义政府总资产相当于GDP的166%，总负债相当于GDP的75%，净资产约占 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for extraordinary macroeconomic policies, particularly expansionary fiscal policies, to achieve the 5% growth target, suggesting a new large-scale stimulus plan similar to the previous "4 trillion" initiative [1] - The implementation of a new "4 trillion" investment stimulus policy raises questions about its effectiveness and whether it can address current economic challenges and ensure the targeted growth rate [3][5] - Critics argue that the previous "4 trillion" policy led to rapid increases in housing prices and local government debt, which now limit the effectiveness of government stimulus measures [5][6] Group 2 - The current focus should be on effective investment and consumer spending rather than solely on infrastructure investment, as consumer confidence and purchasing power are crucial for economic stability [6][8] - A proposed solution includes distributing 5 trillion yuan in consumption vouchers, particularly targeting low- and middle-income groups to stimulate direct consumption and market activity [8] - The past experience with the "4 trillion" stimulus should serve as a lesson rather than a model, indicating that without addressing consumer confidence, further investment may not yield positive results [8]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [1][2] - The report highlights a shift in macroeconomic policy focus from investment to a balanced approach between consumption and investment, with a stronger emphasis on consumption [1] - The report identifies boosting consumption as a critical point for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, noting that China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower compared to countries like the US and Japan [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Strategy - The report suggests that promoting reasonable price recovery requires balancing supply and demand, with a focus on expanding effective demand [2] - Experts indicate that price levels are primarily determined by supply and demand relationships, with monetary factors being secondary; current monetary growth is outpacing economic growth, yet prices remain low [2] - The report outlines the need for the implementation of a recently introduced financial support package to enhance monetary policy effectiveness and stabilize prices [2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - The report notes an increase in fiscal support this year, with a faster issuance of new local special bonds [1] - It compares government debt levels in China with those in the US and Japan, suggesting that China's debt expansion remains sustainable due to substantial state assets and low government debt levels [1] - Experts recommend that future fiscal policies should adjust spending structures to focus more on areas that stimulate consumption, such as elderly care, childcare, and healthcare services [1]