今天下午，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。发布会上，中央广 播电视总台央视记者提问："十四五"期间我国财政宏观调控实现了很多新的突破，能否详细介绍一下这 几年财政宏观调控有哪些新的特点？下一步还有什么考虑？ 财政部部长蓝佛安介绍，财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依 然充足。 一是我国经济长期向好的趋势没有变，这决定了财政运行的基本盘，始终是坚实稳固的。 二是这些年我们积累了越来越多的宏观调控的经验，政策工具不断丰富，逆周期跨周期调节能力大大增 强。 三是随着重点领域风险防范制度机制进一步健全，以及存量风险逐步消化，财政应对未来挑战更有底 气、更加从容，这些都是我们做好财政工作的信心所在、优势所在。 下一步财政部门将继续保持政策的连续性、稳定性，增强灵活性、意见性，加强为形势的前瞻研判，做 好政策储备，主动靠前发力，为经济社会高质量发展贡献财政力量。 (责任编辑：王擎宇) ...

新华社快讯：财政部部长蓝佛安9月12日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻 发布会上介绍，财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。 ...

Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance coordinates fiscal and monetary policies to create synergy [1] - The issuance of 500 billion yuan (approximately $69 billion USD) in special treasury bonds is expected to leverage approximately 6 trillion yuan (approximately $830 billion USD) in credit [1] - Fiscal policy considers both risk prevention and development, maintaining sufficient room for future policy implementation [2]

Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance considers both risk prevention and development promotion in its fiscal policy, ensuring sufficient future policy space [1] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 100 billion yuan for childcare subsidies and 20 billion yuan to gradually implement free preschool education [2] Social Welfare - The government is actively responding to the concerns of the people by implementing childcare subsidies and free preschool education [2]

责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 新华社快讯：财政部部长蓝佛安9月12日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布 会上介绍，财政政策统筹考虑防风险和促发展，始终留有后手，未来财政政策发力空间依然充足。 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：渐近投研） 这篇文章的重要性在于它透露了当下特朗普、贝森特的主政思路，以及他们认为美联储下一步改革的方 向。现任美联储主席鲍威尔将会在明年卸任，考虑到特朗普的任期还有三年，除了任命新一任美联储主 席外，他也有充分的时间来对委员会其他的委员施加影响，我们有理由认为未来几年美联储的政策风格 会带有显著的特朗普色彩。 因此贝森特引出了本文中第一个重要的主张。美联储高估了基于支出的财政政策的作用，但是低估了减 税和放松管制的作用。这里所说的基于支出的财政政策，大概率包括但不限于疫情期间美联储使用超宽 松货币政策配合财政部发行国债募集资金，然后将资金通过转移支付或补贴的方式，为居民和企业兜底 的行为。 在文章之中，贝森特认为美联储直接下场购买各类资产的行为，也即量化宽松/QE，严重的扭曲了市 场。美联储必须将原先复杂且难以管理的工具箱进行简化，从而更好的保证经济发展和美联储的独立 性。 自从2008年金融危机的成功经验之后，美联储开始大举扩展拥有的流动性工具。当利率处于零利率下限 时，美联储开始直接下场购买各类资产。 美联储降低利率和直接亲自下场购买债券的货币政策有很多益处。首先，从理论上来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pricing of interest rate bonds is primarily influenced by three aspects: long-term fundamentals, medium-term policy, and short-term technical factors. The current market is characterized by a "top and bottom" scenario, with a focus on band trading strategies. The macroeconomic situation has not shown significant improvement, and financial data continues to underperform expectations, providing support for the bond market [1][5]. Fundamental Analysis - The main pricing factors for interest rates are economic growth and inflation. Economic growth determines real interest rates, while inflation, driven by domestic demand, is closely linked to economic activity. Therefore, inflation is fundamentally an issue of economic growth [1][3]. - The current macroeconomic reality supports interest rate bonds, with the ten-year government bond yield facing difficulty in rising further due to high funding costs for banks and limited downward pressure on yields [1][4]. Policy Analysis - The central bank maintains a loose liquidity stance, with interbank funding rates remaining stable. The current low interest rate environment is not expected to change significantly, as the absolute level of rates is low, but the term spread is narrow, indicating a maintenance of the current low rate state rather than a push for lower rates [4][5]. - The government's fiscal policy remains proactive, using bond issuance to stabilize the economy. However, there are concerns about whether fiscal stimulus will continue at the same intensity, especially as the peak of bond issuance may have passed [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The widening gap between social financing and RMB loans indicates ongoing government leverage to stabilize the economy. However, both corporate and household loan growth remains in a downward trend, suggesting that domestic demand has not shown significant improvement [3][4]. - The market is currently in a narrow trading range, with potential for upward or downward breakthroughs depending on inflation changes, the central bank's interest rate stance, and potential changes in tariffs [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, being the only ETF tracking the ten-year government bond index. It holds a benchmark position in the market and offers good allocation value for interested investors [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2512 are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures maintained low - level oscillation and consolidation. Today, the stock market rose unilaterally, and the recovery of stock market risk appetite suppressed the bond market. Inflation data is still weak, and subsequent policy - makers will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate recovery of inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be strengthened in the fourth quarter, which will put pressure on the supply side of Treasury bonds. Since there is no need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, the downward space for market interest rates is limited, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates that fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with overall budget execution and fiscal operations remaining stable [1][2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [1] - During the same period, national general public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The government has implemented more proactive fiscal policies, including measures to boost consumption, such as personal consumption loans and subsidies for elderly care services [1][2] - The scope of subsidies has been expanded to include the scrapping and updating of automobiles and the replacement of household appliances, as well as digital products like mobile phones [1] Future Fiscal Policy Directions - The report outlines plans to enhance the execution of fiscal policies, focusing on accelerating budget execution, improving fund utilization efficiency, and ensuring fund security [3] - Key future initiatives include supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, and enhancing fiscal governance effectiveness [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 11, 2025, the spot yields of treasury bonds mostly strengthened, with the ultra - long end weakening. Treasury bond futures showed short - term strength and long - term weakness. The domestic fundamental situation indicated a stable recovery of the overall price level, and overseas, the downward revision of US non - farm employment data led to market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, creating room for China's overall easing policy. Recently, the bond market has been weak, driven by pessimistic sentiment. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of bond futures in the short term and consider band allocation after stabilization, while also paying attention to opportunities for the expansion of term spreads due to a steeper yield curve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.580, up 0.07%, with a trading volume of 30,204 (an increase); TF主力收盘价105.590, up 0.14%, with a trading volume of 17,654 (an increase); TS主力收盘价102.410, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 3,960 (an increase); TL主力收盘价114.740, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 37,306 (an increase) [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 7.16, down - 0.44, up 0.16; T12 - TL12 spread increased by 0.11; T2512 - 2509 spread was - 1.99, down - 0.30, down 0.06; TF12 - T12 spread increased by 0.08; TF2512 - 2509 spread was - 5.17, down - 0.18, down 0.03; TS12 - T12 spread decreased by 0.03; TS2512 - 2509 spread was - 3.18, up 0.06, up 0.03; TS12 - TF12 spread decreased by - 0.11 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量 was 196,841, an increase of 5,005; T前20名多头 increased by 2,529; T前20名空头 increased by 7,964; T前20名净空仓 decreased by 5,435; TF主力持仓量 was 122,214, an increase of 2,666; TF前20名多头 increased by 1,461; TF前20名空头 increased by 2,478; TF前20名净空仓 increased by 1,017; TS主力持仓量 was 54,959, an increase of 181; TS前20名多头 decreased by 632; TS前20名空头 increased by 425; TS前20名净空仓 increased by 1,057; TL主力持仓量 was 119,162, an increase of 1,940; TL前20名多头 increased by 2,127; TL前20名空头 increased by 5,973; TL前20名净空仓 increased by 3,846 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB(6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0984; 220019.IB(6y) was up 0.0820; 230006.IB(4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0306; 240020.IB(4y) was up 0.1465; 250012.IB(1.7y) was 101.9942, up 0.0432; 220016.IB(2y) was up 0.0157; 210005.IB(17y) was 122.5704, down - 0.0023; 220008.IB(18y) was down - 0.1141 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Coupons - 1 - year coupon was 1.4300%, up 1.00bp; 3 - year coupon was up 0.75bp; 5 - year coupon was 1.7525%, up 1.75bp; 7 - year coupon was up 2.00bp; 10 - year coupon was 1.8150%, up 2.00bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3690%, up 4.46bp; Shibor overnight was down 5.60bp; 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.4660%, up 3.05bp; Shibor 7 - day was up 1.70bp; 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5100%, down 3.00bp; Shibor 14 - day was up 0.90bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale was 292 billion yuan, maturity scale was 212.6 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repos [2] 3.9 Industry News - In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year, with core CPI up 0.9% year - on - year. PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The Ministry of Finance stated that fiscal policies have been more proactive this year. From March 2024 to March 2025, US private non - farm employment decreased by 880,000, with various sectors seeing employment declines [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - At 20:15 on September 11, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision; at 20:30 on September 11, US August CPI and core CPI data [3]