Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, but the demand for components like electrolytes remains uncertain, leading to ongoing operational pressures for manufacturers in the second half of the year [1][6] - The average price of various electrolytes in China is below 20,000 yuan per ton, marking a near three-year low [1][2] Company Performance - Shida Shenghua (603026.SH) is expected to report a net profit loss of 52 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of the year, with a year-on-year decrease in net profit of 236.64% to 257.66% [1][2] - The company reported a net profit loss of approximately 3.15 million yuan in the second quarter, following a loss of 28.54 million yuan in the first quarter [2] Factors Affecting Profitability - The loss is attributed to three main factors: high fixed costs due to underproduction at the Wuhan facility, declining prices of methyl tert-butyl ether products, and falling prices of lithium fluoride and its raw material lithium carbonate [2][4] - The company's gross margin has significantly decreased from 31.5% in 2021 to below 6% in 2024, with a sales gross margin of only 5.6% and a net profit margin of -3.42% as of the first quarter [5] Market Dynamics - The electrolyte market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with low operating rates and a concentration of orders among leading companies, while smaller firms face reduced orders or even shutdowns [3][6] - The price of electrolytes is expected to remain under pressure, with projections indicating a price range of 16,000 to 20,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [6] Future Outlook - The potential for price recovery in the electrolyte market is limited, with weak cost support from key raw materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate [5][6] - The industry may see some demand growth in the second half, but significant improvements are uncertain unless there is an unexpected surge in demand [6]

【2025年7月1日碳酸锂期货收涨，市场仍供大于求】2025年7月1日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于62140元/ 吨，收于62780元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当日成交量398387手，持仓量326676手，较前一减少 4148手，期货升水电碳1480元/吨。所有合约总持仓592395手，较前一减少4592手，合约总成交量较前 一减少9815手，投机度0.82，仓单22940手，较上日增加312手。 现货方面，7月1日电池级碳酸锂报价 6.05 - 6.21万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价5.92 - 6.02万元/吨，均较前一无变化。 库存上，现货库存13.68万 吨，其中冶炼厂库存5.90万吨，下游库存4.06万吨，其他库存3.72万吨，成交价格重心暂时持稳。市场 仍供大于求，供应端可流通货源充足，库存压力未缓解；需求端下游正极厂7月排产有增量预期，但仍 以刚需采购为主，观望情绪浓，成交少。 6月，国内碳酸锂市场显著增产，当月总产量环比增长8%， 同比增幅达18%，产量达78090吨。 策略上，基本面偏弱，过剩格局未变，7月材料厂排产有增量，短 期消费有支撑。7月仓单注销，供应端减产消息扰动致盘面波动放 ...

Core Insights - U.S. soybean and corn futures prices have rebounded from multi-month lows, raising questions about whether the oversupply will end the upward momentum [1] - Upcoming reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are anticipated to influence market expectations significantly [1] Group 1 - The rebound in soybean and corn futures indicates a potential shift in market dynamics after a period of low prices [1] - The market is closely monitoring supply levels to determine if the current upward trend can be sustained [1] - The impact of the forthcoming USDA reports is expected to be critical in shaping future price movements and market sentiment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", etc., based on the defined rating standards in the report [269]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical factors affecting crude oil will gradually fade, and the market will focus on the US trade war and OPEC+ production plans. Crude oil is expected to remain stable, while the chemical industry may show a relatively strong oscillating pattern. Most chemical products have positive basis, and as July approaches, the convergence of futures and spot prices will support these products [1][2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry should be viewed through an oscillating perspective, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The rebound strength is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. After the geopolitical concerns ease, the oil price will return to the supply - surplus fundamental line, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and LPG is expected to oscillate weakly. The overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the market may return to fundamental - driven [9]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of production increase is strong, and the asphalt futures price will continue to decline following crude oil. The asphalt price is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and the fuel oil futures price may continue to decline under pressure. The supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price will decline following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, and is expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations at a low valuation [9]. - **Methanol**: The situation between Iran and Israel has eased, and methanol is expected to oscillate. The support for the futures price from the previous geopolitical situation has weakened, and the domestic market is relatively stable [19]. - **Urea**: Relying on exports to balance the domestic supply - demand gap, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the export situation is favorable [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The supply shock is gradually increasing, but the inventory level is low, and the probability of a downward trend is small. It is recommended that investors conduct short - term range operations [14]. - **PX**: The supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamentals are good, and it is expected to be strong in the short term due to production - cut news [11]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the current situation is still okay, and the cost is relatively strong. It is expected to follow the cost side and show a relatively strong performance in the short term [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is in a healthy state, and the spot processing fee has increased slightly. The processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the upward movement of crude oil drives the energy and chemical market [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The price follows the raw materials, and the production cut has started. The further compression space of the spot processing fee is limited [17]. - **PP**: The oil price oscillates, and PP will follow in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively weak [25]. - **Plastic**: The geopolitical premium has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [24]. - **Styrene**: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and styrene has declined. The supply is returning, and the demand is weakening, but the inventory level is low [13]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is expected to oscillate. The cost center is rising, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The dynamic cost is rising, and caustic soda will oscillate temporarily. The supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 1.17 with a change of - 0.08 [28]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 242 with a change of 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 98360 [29]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 246 with a change of - 21 [30].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-26 地缘平息，能化回归⾃⾝供需 彭博报道，伊朗驻联合国代表团近期表示"伊朗战争逻辑已经失 败——回归外交逻辑"。以色列和伊朗国内也都在分别庆祝冲突中取得了 胜利，这无疑表明地缘因素再次涌现的概率较小了，伊以之间近期将不会 有较大冲突。原油月差与绝对值同步回落，成品油裂解价差却表现尚可， 油价下跌后炼厂利润略修复。供应增加再度成为原油市场的交易驱动， 投资以震荡偏弱思路对待油价。 板块逻辑： 原油震荡，化工得以演绎自身供需逻辑。25日能化市场的一个较大变 化乙烯价格上涨较多，华东乙烯主流参照7200-7300元/吨，较20日上涨5. 07%；华东区域外类类乙烯装置多维持降负运行状态，除合约外可供给资 源不足。乙烯下游的众多产品PE、EG、EB等可能受到乙烯涨价的拉升。 后期团队将对乙烯供需格局做进一步分析。 原油：美国库存压力放缓，短线关注地缘扰动 LPG：地缘缓和，PG弱势震荡 沥青：增产预期强，沥青期价跟随原油继续回落 高硫燃油：以色列恢复气田生产，燃油期价恐继续承压下跌 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油回落 甲 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Affected by the decline in crude oil and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production, the downward movement of the market is blocked, and it is expected to be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, with a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The price may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the probability of coke price increase is low. The overall market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - Ferroalloy: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline [56]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price may continue to decline [69][70]. - Glass: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. Attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations if the low - price situation persists [98]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the closing prices of some steel contracts changed slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the decline in coal prices and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production and the support of raw material costs, the downward movement is blocked. In the off - season, the demand for steel is weak, and some varieties are facing inventory pressure. The export price also restricts the rise of steel prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The overall fundamentals of iron ore are in a state of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased year - on - year, and China's iron ore imports in June are expected to reach the highest value this year. The demand side is supported by high hot metal production, and the inventory in ports is slightly decreasing, but the rate of decrease is slowing down [20]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of iron ore may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the downstream demand is lack of confidence. The probability of coke price increase is low, and the market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the coking coal and coke contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [41]. Ferroalloy - **Market Trend**: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline. The supply side is under low pressure, and the inventory is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is slowing down [56]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the ferroalloy contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan from the previous day [59]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The photovoltaic glass industry is in a loss state, and the demand for soda ash is expected to decline [69]. - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the soda ash contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by nearly 10%. If the market is to achieve supply - demand balance in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline to below 154,000 tons [98]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the glass contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1107 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [99].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the near term, coal mine production cuts and reduced imports have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, slowing down the inventory accumulation rate of upstream coal mines. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Situation - Geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing yesterday, causing energy-related commodity prices to fall and driving down the futures prices of coking coal and coke. On the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, with no further price cut dynamics [3] - Recently, due to safety concerns, some coal mines in Changzhi received notices to suspend production for self - inspection. The suspension period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan have received the notice, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily raw coal output by 82,200 tons, mainly affecting lean coal and lean coking coal. In the short term, supply is tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [3] Data Analysis - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [3] - Downstream steel mills' operations are relatively stable, with hot metal production remaining above 2.4 million tons [3] - In May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 380,560 tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 million tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 400,250 tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, due to high tariffs, US coal imports were zero in May [3] Later Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace operations of steel mills and the customs clearance situation of imported coal [4]

农产品早报 2025-06-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周一美豆小幅回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，不过市场预期全球大豆新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠 加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货回落，现货压榨量本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周 一国内豆粕现货下跌 50 元/吨，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周港口大豆库存 783 万吨，油厂 豆粕库存 51 万吨。周一国内豆粕成交一般，提货仍较好。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given text. Core Views of the Report Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear and smooth trend. Fundamental realities limit price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices will likely fluctuate. Q3 may face pressure on the real demand side, and the US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. Aluminum prices are expected to have high - level wide - range oscillations, with the main reference range of 19600 - 20600 [4]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the mine - end growth rate fails to meet expectations and downstream consumption shows super - expected performance, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. In a pessimistic scenario, the price center may shift down. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach in the medium - to - long - term, with the main reference range of 21500 - 23000 [6]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to have a weakly oscillating adjustment, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upward price space [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly, with the main operating range of 12300 - 13000. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm [10]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but considering the pessimistic demand expectations, a short - selling approach can be taken at 260000 - 265000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 10.87%. The import loss widened to 2522 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and imports increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes, with SHFE warehouse receipts dropping by 94.43% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 21950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The import loss widened to 643 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 119500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The production cost of electrolytic nickel from different sources decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35350 tons, and imports increased by 8.18% to 8832 tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons. Imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 261800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons. Multiple inventories decreased [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 20050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of lithium - bearing ore decreased slightly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72080 tons, and demand increased by 4.83% to 93960 tons. Total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

注意，中东局势出现缓解，美国总统特朗普发文称，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致。市场对石油供应中断的担忧情绪大幅缓 解，国际油价重创，回到之前的低点，国内油价预计涨幅稍有减少。 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第5个工作日，当前预计油价上涨520元/吨，相比昨日的油价预计涨幅减少85元/吨，折合每升油价上涨0.39- 0.47元。仍远超油价上调红线，油价要涨 注意，油价大涨中 | 福建 | 7.14 | 7.63 | 9.13 | 6.82 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海南 | 8.29 | 8.8 | 9.95 | 6.91 | | 广东 | 7.19 | 7.79 | 9.79 | 6.83 | | 广西 | 7.24 | 7.82 | 9.06 | 6.88 | | 広開 | 7.32 | 7.86 | 8.54 | 6.9 | | 贵州 | 7.3 | 7.72 | 8.62 | 6.93 | | 四川 | 7.27 | 7.77 | 8.45 | 6.88 | | 重庆 | 7.24 | 7.65 | 9.24 | 6.89 | | श्रीमें स् ...