投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季特征未退，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹产量再度下降，供应有所收缩但依旧处于年 内高位，且品种吨钢利润较好，压力缓解有限。同时，螺纹需求季节性弱势，高频需求指标均走 弱，且位于近年来同期低位，淡季需求特征未退，弱势需求继续承压钢价。总之，螺纹钢基本面延 续季节性弱势，淡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Although the short - term glass market has intense long - short competition, considering the marginal support of supply reduction and the unchanged medium - term upward trend of the futures main contract, if the price stabilizes at the key support level, one can try to go long; otherwise, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Stock Index Futures: It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level during the delivery week [7]. - Gold: Despite the adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. - Iron Ore: With the improvement of the macro - environment, high iron - water production, and the positive feedback repair of the industrial chain, it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. - Methanol: As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, so it should be shorted with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Glass - Fundamental: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. The social inventory of glass has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold repair of production lines such as Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support for supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industrial News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for glass enterprises to reduce inventory and subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a light position. The short - selling power of glass is concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract show a decreasing trend, and market divergence has intensified [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures This week is the delivery week of stock index futures. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a correction in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore The improvement of the macro - environment has increased risk appetite. With good steel - mill profits, iron - water production remains at a high level, and the industrial chain is in a state of positive feedback repair. Technically, it continued to rise today, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it fluctuated within a narrow range today, and the lower support is effective, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Methanol As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate this week, and it should be shorted with a light position [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for PVC [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience a downward trend in the short - term and remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply - side pressure exists due to upcoming new capacity and limited further decline in the operating rate. The demand side is weak as the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and export is restricted by policies and seasons. The high - price spot transactions are difficult, and the inventory pressure is large [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and it is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate is low, and procurement is cautious. The BIS policy in India is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. The social inventory has increased, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although the PVC maintenance is increasing in July, the operating rate is expected to have limited room for further decline, and new capacity is about to be put into production. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract decreased by 1.14% to close at 4934 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22748 hands in open interest to 982527 hands. The lowest price was 4922 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4978 yuan/ton, staying above the 20 - day moving average [2] Basis - On July 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4785 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2509 contract was 4934 yuan/ton. The basis was - 149 yuan/ton, strengthening by 16 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97% due to the maintenance of some devices. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into production in 2025, and about 110,000 tons/year is expected to be put into production in July. On the demand side, from January to June 2025, the real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas all decreased significantly year - on - year. The investment and sales growth rates further declined. The 30 - city commercial housing transaction area decreased by 37.32% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 10, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% to 623,600 tons, 34.15% lower than the same period last year, but still at a relatively high level [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2620至2680区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2560，基差-95，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.46万吨，上周1.1万吨，周环比减少58.18%，去年同期3万吨，同比减少 84.67%。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月16日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万吨，环比增幅3.5%,同 比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.9166%，环比增加0.779个百分点，全国 样本企业出货26.12万吨，环比增加10.91%,样本企业产量为56.6万吨，环比增加2.35%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为58.2万吨，环比减少2.51%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为32.7%，环比增加0.03个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 16 日 铝：淡季承压 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：开工率下行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20430 | 15 | -95 | 360 | -275 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20390 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2583 | -14 | 6 | 132 | -25 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 103595 | -105046 | =5988 | -10141 | -35696 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 205194 | -17295 | -49532 | 23736 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, with supply and demand both weak and no obvious contradictions, tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will move in a range in the short term [1]. - For the zinc market, although there is strong bullish sentiment in the market, the supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation is emerging. Fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that zinc prices will be weak in a range in the short term, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,005 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.91% [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,085 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,732.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.08, down 0.74% [1]. 3.2 Inventory and Position - **Lead**: LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,768 tons, up 6.60%; the futures active contract trading volume was 33,602 hands, up 6.48%; the futures active contract open interest was 52,667 hands, up 0.43%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.64, up 6.03% [1]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 11,184 tons, up 21.95%; the futures active contract trading volume was 119,038 hands, down 12.56%; the futures active contract open interest was 84,304 hands, down 10.48%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.41, down 2.32% [1]. 3.3 Industry News - A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a 15 - day regular maintenance in August, expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production, and plans to add 20,000 tons of new capacity in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year [1]. - On July 14, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 32.78 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 144,891 hands, a decrease of 1,790 hands; the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 5.61 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 194,167 hands, an increase of 1,614 hands [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply. Refineries are facing cost issues and reduced production. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The impact of raw material shortages on production is weakening, and production is expected to increase. Although downstream purchasing increased slightly when zinc prices fell, overall demand remains weak [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Demand negative feedback, unilateral trend is weak [1] - PTA: In the off - season of demand, unilateral trend is weak [1] - MEG: Low inventory, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Supply remains tight, don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [9] - PTA: Uncertainty about the start - up progress of Sanfangxiang and Yisheng's production cut. Don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA on the 01 contract [9] - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plant start - up rates decline, single - side shows a strong - biased oscillatory market, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On July 15, the price of PX fell. The estimated price was 838 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars from the 14th. Asian crude oil futures declined. The demand slump of Asian polyester chains pressured upstream PX. Petronas plans to shut down its 550,000 - ton/year PX plant from mid - August for about a month [3][5] - PTA: On July 15, the spot price of PTA dropped to 4715 yuan/ton [5] - MEG: On July 15, the average spot price was 4408 yuan/ton. The planned arrival at major ports from July 14 - 20 was about 45,000 tons [6] - Polyester: On July 15, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 49% [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [8] Views and Suggestions - PX: The market focuses on Sanfangxiang's start - up progress. Supply is tight, don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Pay attention to the compression position of far - month PXN [9] - PTA: The market focuses on whether Sanfangxiang's start - up will be postponed and whether Yisheng will increase production cuts. Don't chase short on the single - side, go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread. Long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA on the 01 contract [9] - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plant start - up rates decline. Supply increases while demand decreases, but inventory is low. Go long on the nearby contract and short on the far - away contract for the spread when the spread is low [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - The international soybean market is generally characterized by a relatively loose supply - demand balance. The US soybean market may still face pressure, while the situation of Brazil and Argentina also has an impact on the market. The domestic soybean market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying at the bottom, maintaining short - term oscillations. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - The palm oil market is in a stage of production and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil market is in a phased inventory accumulation. The rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support on the futures market. Overall, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak. [20] - The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] Summary by Categories Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1012.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.21% to $279 per short ton. [2] - **相关资讯**: As of July 10, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 147,045 tons. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. The US soybean meal export sales reached 2 million tons as of July 3. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. [2][3] - **逻辑分析**: The international soybean market has a loose supply - demand balance. The domestic market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, buy in small quantities at low points; for arbitrage, conduct M91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [7] Sugar - **外盘情况**: The ICE US sugar futures dropped 1.57% to 16.31 cents per pound. [8] - **重要资讯**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose, and the demand in the peak season led to inventory reduction. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons. In the 2024/2025 season, Yunnan's sugar production increased significantly. [9][10][11] - **逻辑分析**: The raw sugar market is weak but may oscillate. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - **持仓建议**: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options. [13][14] Oil - **外盘情况**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil futures changed by 0.02% to 53.95 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil futures changed by - 0.09% to 4,228 ringgit per ton. [16] - **相关资讯**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60%, and the total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6%. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. As of July 11, the domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased. [17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**: The palm oil market is in production and inventory accumulation. The domestic soybean oil market is in phased inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support. [20] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak, and it may oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: The CBOT corn futures rose, with the December contract up 2.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel. [25] - **重要资讯**: The CBOT corn futures rose due to bargain - hunting and short - covering. The US corn production is expected to be strong. Brazil's corn shipments decreased. The good - excellent rate of US corn was 74%. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable. [26] - **逻辑分析**: The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the December US corn futures will oscillate at the bottom, and the September contract should be observed; for arbitrage, close the long - corn and short - September - corn positions gradually; for options, those with spot can consider the high - selling strategy carefully. [28][29][30] Pig - **相关资讯**: The pig price oscillated. The prices of piglets and sows were stable. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.6%. [32] - **逻辑分析**: The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - **策略建议**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [33] Peanut - **重要资讯**: The prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The arrival volume of an oil factory was 200 tons. The peanut oil price was stable, and the peanut meal sales were slow. As of July 10, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased. [35] - **逻辑分析**: The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, short the October contract at high prices and wait and see currently; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option. [37][39][40] Egg - **重要资讯**: The egg price in the main production and sales areas rose. The inventory of laying hens increased in June. The egg sales volume decreased. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit decreased. [42][43][44] - **交易逻辑**: The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [45] Apple - **重要资讯**: As of July 2, the apple cold - storage inventory was 993,100 tons. In May 2025, the apple import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased. The apple price in the origin was stable, and the sales were slow. [47] - **交易逻辑**: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider buying low and selling high; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [50][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: The ICE US cotton futures rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound. [52] - **重要资讯**: As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%. As of July 3, the un - priced contracts of ICE cotton increased. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased slightly. [53][54][55] - **交易逻辑**: The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] - **交易策略**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [57][59]