证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 5 月出口，高关税阴影犹存 据海关总署，2025年5月出口总值为3161亿美元，同比增长4.8%，低于市场预期的6.2%和4月的8.1%； 进口总值为 2129 亿美元，同比-3.4%，预期 0.31%，前值-0.2%。5 月以来，中美贸易关系缓和，第一轮谈判后 中美互相大幅降低关税，当前美国对华关税仍维持在 30%之上。如何看待 5 月份进出口数据？ 一是对美出口继续下降，暂未反映贸易缓和。5 月对美出口同比降 34.6%，拖累出口同比 5 个百分点。对美 出口进一步大幅下降，或仍在继续反映 4 月美国对中国征收 145%高额关税的影响。不过，5 月以来，中美贸易 关系逐渐缓和，5 月 12 日中美会谈结束后发布日内瓦联合声明，中美之间关税税率超预期大幅下降，关税下调 于 5 月 14 日正式生效。6 月 5 日晚间，中美最高领导人通话，同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，并约定尽 快举行新一轮会谈。 伴随中美关系缓和，中国对美出口的恢复有望体现在 6 月数据。5 月中旬暂停加征关税后，市场迅速 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Sino - US trade relationship shows signs of further easing, which is short - term positive for the market. However, domestic deflation pressure still exists, and imports and exports are weak under tariff impacts. The economic fundamentals are under pressure, limiting the upside space of the broader market. The market is in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, making it difficult for large - cap blue - chip stocks to perform strongly. Small and medium - cap technology stocks with low valuations are expected to rise in the short term. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short single - side trades and try the arbitrage strategy of going long IC/IM and short IF/IH [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) is at 3867.8, up 14.0; IF next main contract (2509) is at 3802.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2506) is at 2676.6, up 3.8; IH next main contract (2509) is at 2641.4, up 6.0. IC main contract (2506) is at 5766.4, up 45.8; IC next main contract (2509) is at 5584.6, up 54.2. IM main contract (2506) is at 6167.8, up 73.6; IM next main contract (2509) is at 5912.6, up 77.2 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1191.2, up 9.4; IC - IF current - month contract spread is 1898.6, up 28.6. IM - IC current - month contract spread is 401.4, up 26.6; IC - IH current - month contract spread is 3089.8, up 38.0. IM - IF current - month contract spread is 2300.0, up 55.2; IM - IH current - month contract spread is 3491.2, up 64.6 [2] - IF quarterly - current month is - 65.4, up 6.6; IF next - quarter - current month is - 97.8, up 11.6. IH quarterly - current month is - 35.2, up 2.0; IH next - quarter - current month is - 34, up 4.2. IC quarterly - current month is - 181.8, up 8.4; IC next - quarter - current month is - 306, up 11.6. IM quarterly - current month is - 255.2, up 4.2; IM next - quarter - current month is - 432.6, up 6.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 28,228.00, up 443.0; IH top 20 net position is - 12,105.00, down 123.0. IC top 20 net position is - 7,964.00, down 1837.0; IM top 20 net position is - 29,143.00, up 174.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is at 3885.25, up 11.3; IF main contract basis is - 17.4, up 1.1. SSE 50 is at 2686.83, down 2.0; IH main contract basis is - 10.2, up 5.0. CSI 500 is at 5805.65, up 43.6; IC main contract basis is - 39.3, down 2.6. CSI 1000 is at 6218.96, up 66.1; IM main contract basis is - 51.2, up 1.5 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 13,126.55, up 1354.42; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 18,085.96, down 30.84. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 1249.86, down 171.83; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) is 0.0, up 1738.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) are + 3.93, down 265.05. MLF data is not provided. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 76.13, up 28.09; Shibor (daily, %) is 1.378, down 0.033 [2] - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) is 23.00, up 1.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) is 12.06, down 0.43. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) is 52.40, down 10.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) is 11.92, down 0.05 [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) is 9.24, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) (6.6) is 54.89, down 2.38; position PCR (%) (6.6) is 67.17, down 0.13 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 7.30, up 2.50; technical aspect score is 7.60, up 2.80; capital aspect score is 7.00, up 2.20 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year (same as the previous value) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value was a 0.1% increase). PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year (previous value was a 2.7% decrease) and 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous value) [2] - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, a 7.2% year - on - year increase; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. In May, the total goods trade import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.28 trillion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase; imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease [2] - A - share major indices generally closed higher. The three major indices opened and rose in the morning and maintained high levels in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index once reached 3400 points. Small and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased. Most industry sectors rose, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector strengthening significantly, and only the food and beverage sector falling against the market [2] 3.7 Key Data to Watch - China's May financial data is to be determined on 6/11 at 20:30. US May CPI and core CPI will be released on 6/11 at 20:30. US May PPI, core PPI and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be released on 6/12 at 20:30 [3]

上周国内权益市场延续震荡走势，万得全A周涨幅1.61%，日均成交量维持在1.2万亿元附近。具体来 看，创业板、中证2000、和中证1000涨幅靠前。上周港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数均上涨2.2%。从行 业来看，上周通信、有色金属和电子上涨较多，交通运输、食品饮料和家电下跌较多。 事实上，自5月12日中美日内瓦会谈结束后，过去的4个交易周里，万得全A维持窄幅震荡，区间涨幅为 1.68%，区间振幅仅为2.84%。《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》公布后，双方承诺互相取消 91%的关税， 互相暂停24%的关税90天，仅保留4月2日以来10%的对等关税。然而从过去一个月的协议落实情况观 察，美方陆续新增出台多项对华限制措施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件 （EDA）销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。接下来将举行的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，意味着未 来中美沟通的领域将更加丰富。泓德基金认为，接下来的一周，全球资本市场会高度关注中美在英国会 谈结果。 从债券市场看，上周债市整体走出窄幅震荡状态，收益率"短强长弱"、曲线走陡。信用债收益率下行为 主。泓德基金分析，展望下一阶段，尽管目前市场对关税谈判逐步脱敏，但中美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall shipping derivatives market shows a complex situation. The spot market has a tendency to increase prices in late June, and the futures market fluctuates upward. It is recommended to hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI and CCFI**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 2240, with a previous value of 2073 and a rise - fall rate of 8.09%. The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1155, with a previous value of 1118 and a rise - fall rate of 3.34% [5] - **Regional Routes**: SCFI - US West has a current value of 5606, a rise - fall rate of 8.39%; SCFI - US East has a current value of 6933, a rise - fall rate of 11.15%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1667, a rise - fall rate of 5.04%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1252, a rise - fall rate of 0.40%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 3302, a rise - fall rate of 7.87%. However, SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1718, a fall rate of 0.12% [5] 3.2 EC Futures Contracts - **Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their prices have different changes. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1936.8, a previous value of 1971.1, and a fall rate of - 1.74%; EC2508 has a current value of 2062.5, a previous value of 2146.3, and a fall rate of - 3.90%. But EC2604 has a current value of 1217.3, a previous value of 1205.7, and a rise rate of 0.96% [5] - **Positions**: The positions of different contracts also vary. For example, the current value of EC2506 position is 8138, with a decrease of 622 compared to the previous value; the current value of EC2508 position is 46227, with a decrease of 1027 compared to the previous value [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are 732.5, - 174.2, and 286.9 respectively, with changes of - 57.8, 11.8, and - 49.4 compared to the previous values [5] 3.3 Trade Situation - **Tariff Adjustment**: China will reduce the tariff on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce the tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [5] - **Trade Friction**: There are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions. Trump claims that China violated the agreement, and the US plans to impose broader sanctions on Chinese technology. Also, the US trade negotiation team has internal differences, which may complicate the negotiation in London on June 9 [6][7] 3.4 Market Situation - **Spot Market**: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The COSCO offline quotation is 4200, CMA is 4250, etc. The market average transaction price in the first week of June is 2350 $/FEU, and the high - end (75% quantile) transaction price is 2700 $/FEU. Although the Far - East to Northern Europe route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, the change in one region can affect the whole supply chain [8] - **Futures Market**: The price increase of shipping companies in late June stimulates the futures market to fluctuate upward. The near - month contracts of June and August are most affected, with the August contract being more elastic as June enters the delivery logic, while the far - month contracts follow the fundamental logic [8] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9]

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领98元券包 ， 优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先 得！ 周末大事 何立峰将访问英国并举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 外交部发言人宣布：应英国政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于6月8 日至13日访问英国。其间，将与美方举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 商务部：对稀土实施出口管制符合国际通行做法 已依法批准一定数量的合规申请 商务部新闻发言人就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问表示，稀土相关物项具有军民两用属 性，对其实施出口管制符合国际通行做法。随着机器人、新能源汽车等行业发展，各国对中 重稀土在民用领域的需求量正持续增长。中国作为负责任的大国，充分考虑各国在民用领域 的合理需求与关切，依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查，已依法批准一定数量 的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相关国家的出口 管制沟通对话，促进便利合规贸易。 商务部：目前中欧双方电动汽车案价格承诺磋商进入最后阶段 但仍需双方努力 商务部新闻发言人就王文涛部长赴法国期间与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇会 谈答记者问。 问：电动汽车反补贴案的价格承诺 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil and fat sector showed a volatile trend with differentiation. Affected by the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakened significantly. Soybean oil was more obviously boosted by the improved sentiment in China - US trade but remained in a volatile range. For palm oil, both production and inventory in the producing areas are expected to increase. Export demand has improved compared to the previous period, supporting prices to some extent. The palm oil market saw frequent short - term capital inflows and outflows, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, and the weekly line closed slightly higher [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut time may be postponed. Attention should be paid to this week's China - US economic and trade meeting. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices rose with fluctuations. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report and the follow - up negotiation progress of China - Canada trade. In general, palm oil may continue to fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 39 to close at 3,917 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 100 to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 208 to close at 9,140 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decrease; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.53 to close at 47.43 cents/pound, a 1.13% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 18.7 to close at 602.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.63% decrease [4][7]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao increased by 60 yuan/ton to 7,930 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton, a 1.46% decrease [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - MPOB monthly report preview: Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8]. - According to SPPOMA data, in May 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 1.90%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.30%, and palm oil production increased by 3.53%. MPOA data shows that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.07%. UOB data shows that as of May 25, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 - 5% [8]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 are expected to be 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the same period last month. AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the same period last month [9]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, sunflower oil imports increased by 2% to 184,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 10% to 398,000 tons, and palm oil imports soared by 87% to 600,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 14,750 tons, and that of palm oil was 903 tons [11]. Industry News - A commodity research institution predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 19 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. Thailand's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.09 - 4.09 million tons [12][13]. - Global palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to be 41.6 million tons, a 1% decrease from last month's estimate and a 0.5% decrease from the 2023/24 season, mainly due to the downward adjustment of India's import estimate [13]. - Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to April this year, a 5.37% decrease from the same period last year. However, due to rising prices, the export value of palm oil in the first four months reached $7.05 billion, a 20% increase from the same period last year [14]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the inventory and production trends of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD, My Agri - data, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][19].

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of soybean meal futures will follow the price of US soybean futures and continue the phased rebound trend, and the overall market is expected to be volatile and strong. The price of palm oil futures will be volatile and strong as well [6][8]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations enhance the expectation of good US soybean exports. Entering the weather - sensitive period, potential extreme weather risks in US soybean - producing areas this summer make US soybean prices easy to rise and hard to fall. The trading logic of the domestic soybean meal market mainly depends on import costs, so short - term soybean meal futures prices will follow the US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly data on June 10. Expected moderate growth in production will push up inventory. There is export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia. In China, increased palm oil purchases will supplement supply and raise inventory. So the short - term palm oil futures prices will be volatile and strong [8]. Other Information - For soybean meal 2509, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors are Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7].

Report Information - Report Type: Index Daily Review [1] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi (Index Futures), He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bond and Container Shipping) [3] Market Condition Review - On June 6, the Wind All A index declined on lower volume, ending its three - day post - holiday rally. In the spot market, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.14%, and 0.23% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the futures market, futures generally outperformed spot. The IF and IC main contracts rose 0.09% and 0.03% respectively, while the IH and IM main contracts fell 0.01% and 0.02% respectively [6]. - By sector, non - ferrous metals, communication, and petroleum and petrochemical led the gains, rising 1.16%, 1.00%, and 0.88% respectively. Beauty care, textile and apparel, and food and beverage sectors led the losses, with declines of - 1.70%, - 1.18%, and - 0.92% respectively [6]. Market Outlook - Externally, on the evening of June 5, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call. From the Chinese statement and Trump's interview, the US is willing to implement the Geneva Agreement with China. China stated that it has seriously implemented the agreement, showing both sincerity and principles. The US also welcomes Chinese students to study in the US, and the two sides will hold a new round of talks soon [8]. - Domestically, the central bank will conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for a term of 3 months, leading to a marginal loosening of overall macro - liquidity. Fundamentally, although the economic data in April slowed down due to tariff impacts, the overall economy still showed resilience. In particular, export data was better than expected, and under the background of "export rush", it may support the economic performance in the second quarter to some extent [8]. - Overall, as Sino - US trade relations ease again, market trading logic returns to the domestic economic fundamentals. Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the upper resistance level, and whether trading volume can break through should be monitored. It is recommended to maintain long positions at a medium - low level. Specifically, small - and medium - cap indices have rebounded significantly this week. The CSI 1000 index has broken through the 60 - day moving average, showing an upward trend. The technology sector shows signs of a turn. Considering the remaining uncertainties in trade risks, the relative performance of IF and IM contracts is favored in the later stage [9]. Industry News - On June 5, according to Cailian Press, the central bank announced that on June 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for a term of 3 months (91 days) through fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid methods [26]

Market Overview - The Wande All A index closed at 5156.21 on June 6, 2025, up 1.61% from May 30, 2025, while the China Convertible Bond index rose by 1.08% during the same period[1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Wande All A index has increased by 2.68%, and the China Convertible Bond index has risen by 4.67%[1] U.S.-China Relations - The recent U.S.-China summit led to a positive market response, with expectations of easing trade tensions, although the U.S. raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%[2][34] - Non-farm payrolls data showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for the year[35] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a rotation strategy, focusing on technology opportunities, as the technology sector shows low crowding and potential for upward movement[3][40] - The TMT sector's crowding index rose from 8.7% at the end of May to 27.5%, indicating increased interest in technology stocks[43] Convertible Bonds - Convertible bond valuations have improved across various price levels, with the valuation center for 80 yuan parity rising by 0.81 percentage points to 47.28%[27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring stock performance and credit events for potential investment opportunities in convertible bonds[55] Risks - The report highlights risks associated with accelerated style rotation in equity markets and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on June 5th, the market's optimism about the trade situation increased, which had different impacts on different agricultural products. Some products were boosted by this positive sentiment, while others were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and weather conditions. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Meal - **Trend**: Strongly rising. The 2509 contract was boosted by trade optimism and rising import costs. The price broke through the 3000 - integer mark, showing technical strength [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 2980, and the resistance level is 3050 [2]. (2) Cotton - **Trend**: Breaking upward. The 2509 contract was driven by the positive sentiment of trade optimism. Although the fundamentals remained unchanged, the market expected an increase in cotton - textile product exports. However, the downstream demand was in the off - season, which limited the upward space [3]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13330, and the resistance level is 13475 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - **Trend**: Rising first and then falling, closing with a shadow - line negative candle. The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory limited the increase, while the increase in export volume provided some support. The domestic inventory increased, and the demand was weak [5]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 8058, and the resistance level is 8186 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - **Trend**: Strongly rising. Driven by the positive sentiment of Sino - US trade relations, the price rebounded technically. However, the large arrival of imported soybeans increased the supply, which might limit the increase [7]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 7686, and the resistance level is 7750 [7]. (5) Sugar - **Trend**: Falling first and then rising, rebounding at a low level. Affected by the decline in ICE raw sugar futures prices, Zhengzhou sugar opened lower, but the high domestic sugar sales rate and low inventory provided support [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 5688, and the resistance level is 5741 [9]. (6) Corn - **Trend**: Continuously rising. Supported by tight supply and declining port inventory, the price showed a stable upward trend [11]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2329, and the resistance level is 2350 [11]. (7) Live Pigs - **Trend**: Oscillating and falling, continuing the weak trend. High inventory in the breeding end and weak downstream demand in the off - season put pressure on the price [14]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13380, and the resistance level is 13545 [14]. (8) Eggs - **Trend**: Continuously falling. High egg - laying hen inventory and weak post - festival demand, along with storage difficulties in the rainy and hot season, led to downward pressure on the price [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2850, and the resistance level is 2889 [19]. (9) Apples - **Trend**: Rising first and then falling, with oscillating prices. The peak season of fruit listing affected apple sales, but low inventory and the expected reduction in some western regions provided some support [21]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions. The support level for the 2510 contract is 7651, and the resistance level is 7800 [24]. (10) Peanuts - **Trend**: Rising and then falling, continuously closing with negative candles. Affected by the volatility of the oil market, the price showed an oscillating trend. Limited supply at the grass - roots level, weak downstream consumption, and cautious purchasing by traders contributed to this situation [23]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. If the 10 - day moving average is broken again, go short with a light position. The support level for the 2510 contract is 8400, and the resistance level is 8450 [23].