美股科技七巨头集体熄火，市场热度降温。当地时间5月15日，美股三大指数表现不一，道指涨 0.65%，标普500指数涨0.41%，而纳指结束六连涨下跌0.18%。科技巨头多数走弱，亚马逊和Meta跌幅 超过2%，特斯拉下跌超1%，苹果、英伟达和谷歌也出现小幅下跌。这一轮调整使得七巨头总市值蒸发 超过1000亿美元。 英伟达成为第三只年内转正的科技巨头。在经历前期调整后，英伟达股价近期强势反弹，本周累计上涨 逾16%，年内整体由跌转涨，涨幅约0.7%。这使其成为继Meta和微软之后，第三只年内实现正增长的科 技巨头股票。Meta和微软今年涨幅分别达到约12%和7%。相比之下，苹果和特斯拉表现不佳，年内跌 幅均超过13%。 中美贸易关系缓和曾带动科技股反弹。中美同意互降关税的消息曾在5月13日引爆市场多头热情，当天 美股科技七巨头市值激增约8375亿美元。苹果股价上涨约6%，亚马逊大涨8%，英伟达上涨约5%。这一 利好消息使纳斯达克100指数较上月低位反弹超20%，进入技术性牛市。 美联储政策前景增添不确定性。鲍威尔在第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议上表示，美国可能正进入一个 供应冲击更频繁、持续时间更长的时期，未来通 ...

豆一盘面主力处于震荡态势中。今日黑龙江调节储备竞价销售全部成交。豆一仓单高企,仓单少量减少。农业 农村部本周部署推进粮油大面积单产提升工作。进口大豆方面加征关税进行了下调,进口大豆开机率环比回 升,5-7月份的大豆到港量也庞大。短期继续关注政策端的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 国内豆箱现货报价继续走弱,今日华北,山东,江苏部分地区已有现货跌至3000元/吨以下。下游采购积极性不 佳,成交表现一般。受中美贸易关系缓和影响,美大豆进口加征关税减至20%。5月开始国际大豆到法增多，局 部供应偏紧情况已缓解,供应趋于宽松。后续中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多,短期看空不做空,下方空 间有限,投资者注意风险,关注天气,关注长期做多机会。 【豆油&棕榈油】 美豆油出现大幅下跌,回吐了之前的涨幅,因为RVO政策延期公布,使得市场忧虑。国内豆棕油也跟随下跌。近 期美国生柴政策领期的变动加大了植物油的波动风险,总体从美国生物柴油现有的产能和未来几年扩产的产能 来看,原押需求体量大趋势是存在的,原料价格、原料类别、政策补贴、企业的利润等之间存在博弈,容易造 成价格波动增大的风险,注意控制风险。 | | | | | 操作评级 | 202 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 15 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-15） | | | | 铁矿：关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，黑色盘面大幅上涨。随着部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港 | | | | | 口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关键，贸 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将 | | | | | 迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，未来 90 天中美两国之间的贸易将 | | | | | 大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套，激进的投 | | | | | 资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状态。钢厂铁水 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 产量仍处于 ...

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Core Insights - Recent US inflation data shows a cooling trend, which enhances expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, positively impacting risk assets like cryptocurrencies [4][12] - Improvement in US-China trade relations, with both sides agreeing to lower tariffs, provides additional support for Bitcoin [4][12] Current Price Trends - Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at approximately $2,584.98, down about 3.13% from the previous day, but has seen a remarkable weekly increase of 43.05% [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $103,197, down about 0.42% from the previous day, maintaining a strong support level above $100,000 [4] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's technical indicators show a neutral to strong RSI, with a slight decline in momentum, while MACD remains bullish [4] - Ethereum's technical indicators indicate a strong upward trend, having successfully broken through long-term resistance levels [5] Market Sentiment - The Fear and Greed Index for the cryptocurrency market is at 70, indicating a "greed" level, which suggests optimism among market participants but also hints at potential overheating risks [4][7] ETF Fund Flows - Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a net outflow of approximately $9.6 million, led by Fidelity's FBTC, breaking a 20-day streak of net inflows [4] - In contrast, Ethereum ETFs have seen significant inflows, with $1.35 million net inflow on May 14, indicating a shift in institutional interest from Bitcoin to Ethereum [9] Investment Strategies - Suggested entry points for Bitcoin are in the $100,000-$101,000 range, with a primary target of $105,000 and a stop-loss set below $98,500 [4] - For Ethereum, a buying strategy is recommended in the $2,400-$2,500 support area, with targets of $2,800 and $3,000 [9] Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict Ethereum could reach $5,000 by 2025, driven by its status as the only approved spot Bitcoin ETF alternative, technological advancements, and overall bullish market trends [9][12] - The overall market is in a mid-bull phase, with recommendations to maintain a 65-70% overall position in cryptocurrencies, adjusting Bitcoin and Ethereum allocations to capture potential excess returns [12]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） 棉纺团队 研究员： 洪润霞 咨询电话 ...

本次中美大幅降低双边关税水平，符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，有利于中美两国经贸往来，有利于 全球经济。 中美关税冲突缓和，A股市场积极反应。 截至5月14日午间收盘，Wind海运指数（886027.WI）大涨3.82%，在Wind中国行业指数中涨幅排名第 一。 板块个股中，国航远洋（833171.BJ）涨24.84%、华光源海（872351.BJ）涨13.69%。宁波海运 （600798.SH）、宁波远洋（601022.SH）、中远海发（601866.SH）、锦江航运（601083.SH）。 在港口方面，南京港（002040.SZ）、连云港（601008.SH）等涨停。其中，宁波海运、宁波远洋、南京 港已连续两日涨停。 另外，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约盘中大涨逾15%，升至1700点关口上方，创一个月来的高位。 5月14日，Wind海运指数（886027.WI）大幅上涨，截止午间收盘涨幅达到3.82%，在Wind中国行业指数 中涨幅排名第一。另外，多只航运、港口个股涨停。 在互动平台上，多家上市公司回应了双方关税下调的短期影响。同时，不少上市公司也提醒，中美双方 的关税政策仍处于波动之中，长远应对之策才是重 ...

2025 年 5 月 14 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏弱震荡 铜、螺纹钢、 铁矿石期货将偏强震荡 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、集运 欧线期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3876 和 3905 点，支撑位 3836 和 3822 点；IH2506 阻力位 2697 和 2719 点，支撑位 2680 和 2670 点；IC2506 阻力位 5700 和 5748 点，支撑位 5616 和 5583 点； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties have different trend judgments, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, different futures varieties are judged as short - biased, oscillating, or long - biased [5]. - For various futures varieties, corresponding trading strategies and trend analyses are provided, such as maintaining a long - term mindset for stock index futures, considering a steeper yield curve for bond futures, etc. [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - US trade relations have eased. The State Council Tariff Commission has adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods from the US. International investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China and the outlook for the Chinese stock market [7][8]. - The US 4 - month CPI was lower than expected, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders are betting on Fed rate cuts in September and October [7]. - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the US and Saudi Arabia have reached a large - scale commercial agreement [8]. - The US House of Representatives is promoting a tax bill, and the US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU [9]. Futures Varieties Analysis Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to possible style drifts. The market has digested the impact of the China - US joint statement, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [11]. Bond Futures - It may be better to consider a steeper yield curve for bonds, and it is advisable to remain moderately cautious. The inter - bank funds are loose, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [12]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The focus of the market game is on whether the spot price will further decline and whether shipping companies will announce and implement price increases in June. The contract trend in the second half of the year is highly uncertain [13]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are under pressure to rebound at a low level. The actual orders and demand outlook are worrying, and the USDA supply - demand report is negative [13][14][15]. Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating. There is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The expected increase in supply restricts the upward space of sugar prices [16][17][18]. Oils and Oilseeds - Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short term, and soybean meal is also expected to be weak [19][20]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The sitting - fruit situation varies by region, and the inventory is at a low level in the past 6 years [20]. Jujubes - Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may oscillate at the bottom [20][21]. Pigs - The futures price is at a discount, and the long - short situation is stalemated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand may decline [21]. Crude Oil - In the long - term, the oil price is expected to decline. In the short term, the rebound space is limited due to the easing of the trade war [22]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, and it is necessary to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the increase in production [22]. Plastics - L and PP are expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment and increased export demand for downstream products [23]. Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the digestion of macro and emotional factors [23]. Methanol - Adopt a short - term small - scale rebound strategy, but be cautious as the supply pressure is large [23]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate under the influence of the macro market, and the spot price is showing signs of loosening [23]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is expected to have limited downward space in the short term, and glass is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the inventory is stable with price support [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to the possible postponement of maintenance when the price rises continuously [26]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The futures price may rebound after offsetting the short - term tariff impact, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Pulp - The fundamentals are short - term oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [29]. Logs - The short - term is expected to oscillate. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long - term [30]. Urea - The UR2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a short - term short strategy can be adopted if it rises significantly [30]. Synthetic Rubber - The raw materials and finished products are oscillating strongly. Take profit when the price rises and buy again after the callback [31]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy at low prices. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - term short strategy. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upward space, and the 07 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [32]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, but the medium - and long - term is still weak. Pay attention to the cost support level [33][34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price fluctuates with macro policies, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The price is in a downward channel [35][36][37]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a range - trading strategy without a clear trend [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the speculation that U.S.-China trade negotiations may involve Taiwan issues, particularly after President Trump's comments about "unification and peace" [1][3] - Trump's remarks during a press conference suggested that the outcomes of the trade talks would be beneficial for both China and the U.S., as well as for "unification and peace," raising concerns in Taiwan [3][4] - Taiwan's government officials, including spokespersons from the office of Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te, stated that they currently have no information indicating that Taiwan-related issues are part of the U.S.-China trade discussions [3][4] Group 2 - Following the trade talks, China announced a significant adjustment to tariffs on U.S. imports, reducing the additional tariff rate from 34% to 10%, effective from May 14, 2025 [5] - The adjustment includes a temporary suspension of a 24% additional tariff on U.S. goods for 90 days, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [5][6]