相比6月美联储议息会议的声明，7月会议声明将美国经济活动"持续稳健扩张"的措辞，修改为了"在2025年上半年增长 有所缓和"。 图片来自视觉中国 …… 本次议息会议的罕见投票结果为美联储未来的降息路径增加了更多难以预测性 作者｜曾佳 发自美国华盛顿 在7月29日至30日举行的议息会议上，美联储一如市场预期决定维持当前利率水平不变。但美联储货币政策决策机构 ——公开市场委员会（FOMC）对这一政策决定的投票结果是9票赞成、2票反对，这是30余年来美联储最大的一次政策 分歧。会前，市场预计美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性为60%，但美联储主席鲍威尔此次表示，不会提前对货币 政策作决定。9月降息的市场预期应声滑落至45%。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 29-30 meeting, with no rate cuts so far this year[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts this year have decreased from 2 times to 1 time following the meeting, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance[1] - The Fed acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, shifting from a previous optimistic outlook[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, reversing a -0.5% contraction in Q1, with net exports contributing positively[6] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49% in June, indicating slight improvement but still in contraction territory[6] - The July CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to 4.4%[7] - Risks include financial instability, unexpected Fed policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and potential inflation rebounds[14]

北京时间周四（7月31日）欧洲时段，美元指数再度暴跌，交投于96.37附近，金价目前交投于3309.81美 元/盎司，涨幅1.06%，最高触及3314.65美元/盎司，最低触及3273.41美元/盎司。 今日黄金价格最新查询（2025年7月31日） 具体来看，自动数据处理公司的报告显示，7月份美国私营部门就业人数新增10.4万，较上月修正后的 减少2.3万形成鲜明对比；而美国商务部的数据则显示，二季度GDP年化增长率达3.0%，成功扭转了一 季度收缩0.5%的局面。如今，交易员们的目光已聚焦于美联储青睐的核心PCE价格指数，寻求新的市场 动向线索。与此同时，美元多头相对谨慎的操作策略，也为黄金在周四亚洲交易时段吸引了部分买盘。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 3310.23 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 766.58 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 765.23 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 770.28 | 元/克 | 【黄金走势分析】 【基本面解析】 黄金价格自7月25日跌破上升三角形后，昨天隔夜下跌使三角形整理的量度跌幅得到满足 ...

来源：滚动播报 （来源：直新闻） #美联储连续5次决定维持利率不变##美联储宣布维持利率不变#【美联储决议与特朗普唱反调 鲍威尔强 硬发言：央行决策不受政治干预】当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会 议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25％至4.50％之间不变，这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五 次决定维持利率不变，符合市场预期。 美国总统特朗普当天早些时候表示，维持高利率正在伤害民 众，美联储应该降低利率。面对特朗普不断施压，鲍威尔表示，美联储应该独立服务于公众，避免直接 的政治干预。#美联储连续五次按兵不动# ...

【博时市场点评7月31日】三大指数下跌，跌幅均超1% 每日观点 今日沪深两市震荡调整，深证成指、创业板指跌幅均超1.5%，两市成交进一步放量至1.96万亿。美东时 间7月30日，美联储FOMC会后公布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍维持在4.25%至4.5%，符合市场普遍预 期。会议决议表述较此前发生两点变化，一是认为美国上半年经济增长有所放缓，二是经济前景的不确 定性依然高涨。在会后鲍威尔的讲话中，对于9月会不会降息的问题，则认为需要看9月议息会议之前的 两轮就业和通胀数据的情况，劳动力市场是否明显下滑。市场对鲍威尔的讲话做出了偏鹰派的解读，10 年美债收益率先跌后涨，美元指数上涨，美股盘中跳水、标普500指数由涨转跌，黄金现价跌破3300美 元/盎司关口，目前对于9月降息的预期出现下降。 7月31日，国家统计局披露数据，7月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；非制 造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高 于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 数据来源：同花顺，截至2025年7月31日。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理 ...

智通财经APP获悉，骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管及投资组合经理Dan Siluk 表示，一如 外界预期，美联储连续第五次在会议上维持联邦基金利率于4.25–4.50% 不变。此次决议并非一致通 过，理事鲍曼(Bowman)和沃勒(Waller)表达异议，支持减息25个基点，这一立场在会前已有所透露，如 今获得确认。Dan Siluk 表示，市场可能会将此会议结果解读为美联储"观望"策略的延续，并通过异议 与较温和的措辞展现"鸽派"倾向。9月决策将具高度可变性。 声明中美联储对经济的评估略有下修。6月时的措辞为经济活动"持续稳健扩张"，而本次语气则转为谨 慎，指出"上半年经济活动出现放缓"。委员会仍形容通胀为"略高"，并承认来自关税与财政动态的上行 风险持续存在。 美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上维持以数据为本的立场，不排除在9月采取行动的可能，但也不承诺减 息，由于本次并无更新的经济预测摘要(SEP)，市场焦点将迅速转向 Jackson Hole 研讨会及后续经济数 据。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating uncertainty regarding future rate cuts based on U.S. inflation and employment data [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) noted that the Hong Kong dollar liquidity is gradually tightening, with the Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) rising from low levels, although it remains significantly below U.S. rates [1] - The HKMA mentioned that the "weak-side convertibility guarantee" may be triggered again depending on changes in Hong Kong dollar supply and demand, as well as uncertainties related to U.S. monetary policy and global financial market conditions [1] Group 2 - The HKMA emphasized the significant uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and pace of future U.S. rate cuts, which may lead to changes in Hong Kong's interest rate environment [2] - The HKMA advised citizens to consider the potential for rising Hong Kong dollar interest rates when making decisions related to property, investment, or borrowing [2] - The HKMA will continue to closely monitor market changes to maintain monetary and financial stability [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time this year it has opted to hold steady [1][3] - Compared to the optimistic assessment in June regarding "sustained economic expansion," the Fed's recent statement reflects a more cautious tone, indicating that uncertainty remains high [3] - The Fed noted that net export fluctuations continue to impact data, and recent indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic activity during the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and inflation is still slightly above target [3] Group 2 - Market expectations had pointed to a potential rate cut in September, contingent on data performance, but Fed Chair Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding a rate cut [4] - Notably, two members of the Federal Reserve Board voted against the decision, marking the first occurrence of multiple dissenting votes since 1993 [5][6] - Powell emphasized that many uncertainties remain, and an early rate cut could fail to fully address inflation issues, with the majority of committee members believing current inflation levels are slightly above target [6] Group 3 - Following the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged, the stock market reacted with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 171.71 points to 44,461.28, a decline of 0.38%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 31.38 points to 21,129.67, an increase of 0.15% [8][9] - The gold market saw a significant drop, with COMEX gold futures falling by 1.72% to $3,266.90 per ounce, influenced by the Fed's rate decision and Powell's comments [8][9] - In the commodities market, WTI September crude oil futures closed at $70.00 per barrel, while Brent September crude oil futures settled at $73.24 per barrel [10]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% after the July FOMC meeting, indicating a low probability of rate cuts in September[2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, significantly higher than Q1's -0.5% and above the 2024 forecast of 2.8%[6] - A 30% decline in imports contributed positively to GDP growth, while private investment negatively impacted GDP by 3.1% in Q2[6] Employment and Inflation - The labor market remains solid, with an average monthly job addition of 150,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%[9] - Inflation is still above the 2% target, with Powell noting that service sector inflation is easing but tariffs are pushing up prices on certain goods[12][13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is low, with Powell emphasizing the need for more economic data to assess the impact of tariffs[14] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on price stability and maximum employment, rather than economic growth alone[14] - There were dissenting votes from two Fed officials advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 2020 that more than one official opposed Powell[14] Future Projections - The Fed may delay rate cuts until Q4, as it requires additional economic data to evaluate the effects of recent tariff negotiations[15] - If trade agreements are reached by August, the earliest potential rate cut could occur in October[15]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the future pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will depend on U.S. inflation and employment data [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) noted that the local interest rate environment may change due to various factors, and residents should consider the potential for rising Hong Kong dollar interest rates when making financial decisions [1] Group 2 - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. remains attractive for carry trades, keeping the Hong Kong dollar close to the 7.85 level [2] - Recent demand for Hong Kong dollar liquidity related to stock investments has provided some support for the currency [2] - Future considerations include changes in Hong Kong dollar supply and demand, uncertainties surrounding U.S. monetary policy, and global financial market conditions, which may trigger the "weak side convertibility guarantee" again [2]