Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. - For different sectors and varieties, the short - term judgments are mainly "oscillatory", with some showing "oscillatory upward" or "oscillatory downward" trends [16][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures price was 4728.6, with a daily increase of 0.17, a weekly increase of 0.11, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.8. The SSE 50 futures price was 3077.6, with a daily decrease of 0.08, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.74. The CSI 500 futures price was 8266, with a daily increase of 1.11, a weekly increase of 0.68, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.27. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8186.6, with a daily increase of 0.49, a weekly increase of 0.09, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.09 [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price was 102.4, with no daily change, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.05. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures price was 105.785, with a daily decrease of 0.03, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.02. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures price was 108.04, with a daily decrease of 0.02, a weekly decrease of 0.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.17. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures price was 110.92, with a daily decrease of 0.23, a weekly decrease of 0.22, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.44 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.3691, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 0.23, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.12. The US dollar mid - price was 6.9703 pips, with a daily increase of 32, a weekly decrease of 80, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 187 [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.443 bp, with a daily decrease of 5.94, a weekly decrease of 2.97, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 53.91. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.8424 bp, with a daily decrease of 1.2, a weekly decrease of 3.58, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.49. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.24 bp, with a daily increase of 7 [2]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - Industries such as national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, and consumer services had relatively high daily and weekly increases, while industries like computer, telecommunications, and non - banking finance had declines [5]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 59.22, with a daily increase of 0.08, a weekly increase of 0.75, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.15. ICE Brent crude oil price was 64.2, with a daily increase of 0.69, a weekly increase of 1.87, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.4. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.109, with a daily decrease of 1.11, a weekly decrease of 1.02, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 16.22. ICE UK natural gas price was 98.39, with a daily increase of 13.42, a weekly increase of 33.88, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 31.87 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 4601.1, with a daily decrease of 0.49, a weekly increase of 1.83, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.21. COMEX silver price was 89.945, with a daily decrease of 2.6, a weekly increase of 12.73, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 26.72 [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 12803, with a daily decrease of 2.31, a weekly decrease of 1.5, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.45. LME aluminum price was 3134, with a daily decrease of 1.06, a weekly decrease of 0.06, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.57. LME zinc price was 3209, with a daily decrease of 3.18, a weekly increase of 1.76, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.66 [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean price was 1056.25, with a daily increase of 0.31, a weekly decrease of 0.61, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.86. CBOT soybean oil price was 52.51, with a daily decrease of 0.87, no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 3.24, and a quarterly and annual increase of 8.16 [8]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 439.25, with a daily and weekly decrease of 0.22 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.47. Fuel oil price was 2526.6, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.38 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.11 [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper price was 101196.42, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.32 and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.94. Aluminum price was affected by the potential shutdown of Mozal aluminum plant, with the price oscillating at a high level [12]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends, with rebar price decreasing and hot - rolled coil price having a certain increase in some periods. Iron ore price increased slightly, and coke and coking coal prices also had their own trends [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Prices of products such as soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil had different degrees of fluctuations [12]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: This week, precious metals, Brent crude oil, and ChiNext Index led the gains, showing a pattern of rapid upward movement in the first half - week and oscillatory decline in the second half. The first half - week was driven by factors such as the weakening of the Fed's independence and better - than - expected US inflation data, while the second half - week was dragged down by factors such as the alleviation of concerns about key mineral tariffs, the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strengthening of the US dollar due to initial jobless claims data [15]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, consumer spending showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation was postponed to June [15]. - **Domestic Macro**: Policy support focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, social financing data showed strong corporate loan and bond financing, and inflation improvement clues were clear [15]. - **Asset Views**: The short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [15]. Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to oscillate upward, stock index options to oscillate, and Treasury bond futures to oscillate [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate upward [16]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Black Building Materials**: Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory upward trends [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate, with some showing oscillatory downward trends [18]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show different trends, with some oscillating upward, some oscillating downward, and most oscillating [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in tin and nickel prices in the Yangtze spot market is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and regulatory actions, leading to increased market divergence regarding future trends [1] Macroeconomic Pressure - The US dollar index remains strong around 99.40, nearing a six-week high, which is a key factor suppressing non-ferrous metal prices [2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have solidified, with a 95% probability of maintaining rates in January and a 78.4% probability in March, pushing back rate cut expectations to mid-year [2] Supply and Demand Logic - Tin prices are pressured by increased supply expectations from Myanmar and Indonesia, with imports from Myanmar reaching 7,190 tons in November, alleviating previous supply tightness [3] - Demand for tin is weakening as the "export window" for photovoltaic solder approaches its end, and speculative demand in AI and semiconductor sectors is also declining [3] - Nickel prices are affected by high inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks rising to 285,732 tons, and weak demand from the electric vehicle sector, which saw a 38% year-on-year drop in retail sales in early January [3] Industry Chain Impact - Global visible tin inventories are at approximately 12,000 tons, down over 70% from historical highs, but supply improvements are evident with increased mining quotas expected from Indonesia [4] - The nickel industry faces challenges with overcapacity in smelting and weak demand from the stainless steel and electric vehicle sectors, leading to significant operational pressures across the supply chain [5] Corporate Dynamics - Leading companies like Yunnan Tin Company reported a 35.99% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but current price declines may impact short-term profitability [6] - The second-largest tin producer, Xinyi Silver Tin, is expanding its capacity and plans to increase tin concentrate production to 20,000 tons per year through acquisitions [6] - Nickel industry leader Tsingshan Group is well-positioned due to its extensive operations in Indonesia, with ongoing projects in high-grade nickel and battery-grade nickel expected to benefit from future demand recovery [6] Outlook and Strategy - Analysts predict that tin and nickel prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with tin prices likely oscillating between 370,000 and 400,000 yuan per ton [7] - Nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure, with key support around 141,000 yuan per ton, and potential declines to 140,000 yuan if demand does not improve [7] - Investors are advised to lower leverage and control positions, focusing on leading companies with resource advantages and cost benefits while avoiding speculative trades [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, highlighted that the economic policies of the Trump administration are attracting trillions of dollars in capital back to the U.S. [1] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary warned South Korean semiconductor manufacturers that failure to invest in U.S. facilities could result in tariffs as high as 100% on their products [2] - The U.S. Senate passed a bill approving funding of several billion dollars to federal research institutions, rejecting significant budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson stated that current interest rates are aligned with neutral rates, indicating a stable policy stance [1] - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh has emerged as the leading candidate to replace Powell as Fed Chair, following President Trump's support for Kevin Hassett to remain as the White House economic advisor [1] - Bowman, a Federal Reserve Governor, emphasized that if the labor market does not show sustained improvement, the Fed should decisively lower interest rates to align policy with neutral [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, China's exports continued high - growth, imports rebounded significantly, and the trade surplus expanded. The Fed's January rate - cut probability decreased, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend. The central bank adjusted the structural monetary policy tool rate and commercial real - estate credit policies, aiming to improve capital activation and support the real economy [8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly data from 2023 to 2025 are presented, showing the performance of different industries, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, and services. The contribution rates and pulling effects of the three industries on GDP are also provided [13][18]. 3.2 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Sector**: The growth rate, added - value of major industries, and production of key products are analyzed. The profit situation of industrial enterprises shows mixed results, with some industries growing and some declining. The inventory of industrial enterprises is at a relatively high level, and enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory [28][43][53]. - **Price Index**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased year - on - year, and the industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased year - on - year but the decline narrowed. The prices of different categories in CPI and PPI showed different trends [60][68]. 3.3 Real Estate Market - In January - November 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. The prices of new and second - hand residential properties in major cities also showed different degrees of decline [122][126][130]. 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment - In December 2025, China's total import and export volume reached a record high. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. The export of key products and the import of key commodities are presented in detailed tables [93][100][101]. 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January - November 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment also declined. Investment in different industries showed different trends, with the second - industry investment growing and the third - industry investment declining [114]. 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales is analyzed, and the year - on - year changes in retail sales of different industries above the quota are presented [158][165]. 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers by different means, the subway passenger flow in major cities, and the freight rates of shipping routes are analyzed [168][173][179]. 3.8 Banking and Currency - The new social financing scale, social financing scale stock, new RMB loans, and money liquidity are analyzed. The central bank emphasizes reasonable interest - rate control to promote the decline of the real - economy financing cost [183][194][200]. 3.9 Bond Market - The issuance of interest - bearing bonds and the yields of long - and short - term treasury bonds are analyzed [213][216]. 3.10 Foreign Exchange and Gold - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index are presented. China's gold reserves increased, and the foreign exchange reserves reached a new high [220][223]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - The central and local general public budget revenues and expenditures are analyzed, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate and new urban employment are presented [232][236][242]. 3.12 Business Climate Survey - The global and Chinese manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI are analyzed. In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [245][248][256]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - The US real GDP growth rate, employment situation, treasury bond yields, retail sales, and the Fed's asset structure and federal funds rate are analyzed [263][266][274].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical shocks are frequent, testing the low volatility of cross - asset classes. Geopolitics may be the key short - term market driver, and there is a risk of rising cross - asset volatility. Attention should be paid to non - eurozone safe - haven assets [11][12]. - The IEEPA ruling is still pending. If the US Supreme Court rules it unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund, causing short - term tariff policy chaos, and the White House may seek an alternative legal framework [14][17]. - Changes in the expected FED chairperson have led the 10 - year US Treasury yield to break through the key level of 4.20%, with the pressure level raised to 4.20 - 4.3% [18][20]. - US fundamental data are relatively comfortable and in line with expectations. Retail sales in November were better than expected, and the CPI data in December were in line with expectations, with core CPI lower than expected [23][24]. - In the FICC precious metals market, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, while silver is at risk of volatility. It is recommended to increase gold allocation and consider taking profit on silver long positions [25][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income**: The yields of various - term US Treasuries and major developed country government bonds have changed. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield reached 4.22% on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 5.76bp [43][44]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spreads**: Track the changes in the US Treasury yield curve over 1, 3, and 6 months, as well as the long - short spreads of US Treasury yields [51]. - **Relative Strength of Credit Bonds of Different Ratings and Eurozone Bond Spreads**: Analyze the relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds and the spreads of Eurozone government bonds [60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators**: Include the issuance of US short - term Treasury bills and medium - long - term Treasuries, as well as the bid/offer ratios of 2, 10, and 30 - year US Treasuries [69][73]. Exchange Rate Market - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.3930 on January 16, 2026, with a weekly change of 0.26%. The euro, yen, and other currencies also had corresponding changes [78][80]. - **Yield Spreads between Major Country Government Bonds and US Treasuries**: Analyze the 10 - year yield spreads between US Treasuries and G7 countries, as well as the 2 - year yield spreads between the US and Germany [81]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework**: The inter - bank 7 - day reverse repurchase serves as the "policy rate", and the SLF and excess reserve ratio form the "interest rate corridor" [90]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of the RMB Exchange Rate**: Include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, import and export year - on - year data, and high - frequency indicators such as the yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasuries [95][103]. Commodities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Major Commodities**: Brent crude oil had a weekly increase of 3.45%, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% [121][123]. - **Ratios of Major Commodities and Relative Strength of Industrial Chains**: Analyze the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and the relative strength of the downstream/upstream of the energy and black metal industrial chains [125][131]. - **Mapping of Commodity Prices in the Equity and Bond Markets**: Examine the relative strength of commodities compared to global equity and bond indices and the rolling correlation between upstream Bloomberg commodities and downstream equity cyclical sectors [134][137]. - **High - Frequency Data of Macro Commodities**: Include OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventory changes [141][144]. Overseas Equities - **Week - to - Week Performance of Global Major Indices and US Stock Sectors**: The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.38%, and the Nikkei 225 index increased by 5.51%. Among the S&P industry indices, the real estate index increased by 3.89%, while the financial index decreased by 2.33% [149][153]. - **Week - to - Week Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking of US Stock Styles**: The US large - cap growth style decreased by 1.52%, and the US small - cap value style increased by 1.34%. The PE ratios and EPS growth rates of major indices are also provided [156][160]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices**: Track the quarterly EPS YoY trends of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other indices [166]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators**: Include the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio [173]. - **Tracking Factors**: Track the YTW total return performance of US stock market factors [183]. Cryptocurrencies - Track BTC, ETH, and related derivative assets, including the performance of Bitcoin futures main contracts, non - commercial net positions, and the performance of cryptocurrency - related stocks [186][190]. Post - YCC Era of the BOJ - Track high - frequency data of the yen carry - trade system, such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, the USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging cost, and the yen 3M volatility [194][196]. 2. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - Include the Fed's nominal and real real - time GDP models, US GDP and its sectoral breakdowns, and economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China [204][208]. Financial Conditions - Analyze the Fed's balance sheet and its weekly changes, the balance sheets of G4 central banks as a percentage of GDP, and the US and Eurozone financial conditions indices [212][215]. Fiscal Policy - Examine the US federal government's fiscal expenditure and revenue breakdowns, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP [220][225]. Employment Market - Track the US employment market on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, household surveys, ADP data, and job vacancy numbers [229][230]. Inflation Indicators - Analyze the breakdown of US inflation YoY data, the trends of headline and core inflation, and inflation expectations [237][242]. Consumption Demand - Track US consumption data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, and personal income and savings [245][252]. Cycle Positioning - Track industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cyclical indicators, such as the LEI leading indicator YoY, ISM PMI, and US manufacturing surveys [267][272]. Credit Cycle - Track US credit surveys, valuations, and high - frequency data in the credit market, such as the SLOOS corporate credit survey and S&P index valuations [280][282]. Transportation and Logistics - Track logistics data between China, Asia, Europe, and the US, including shipping frequencies, port freight data, and aviation passenger numbers [284][297]. Real Estate Market - Analyze the US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate, including real estate indices, mortgage rates, and commercial real estate loan delinquency rates [302][308]. Eurozone - Provide a macro overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength analysis of the Eurozone, including deficit rates of peripheral countries, inflation trends, and retail sales data [311][331].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen, prompting hedge fund managers to increase their investments in RMB-denominated assets, particularly Chinese government bonds, anticipating a rise in the RMB against the USD [2][3][5]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Strategies - Hedge fund manager Zhang Gang plans to raise the proportion of RMB assets in his emerging market currency portfolio from 10% to 25% following the RMB's rise above the "7" mark against the USD by the end of 2025 [2]. - Zhang anticipates that if the RMB appreciates to around 6.80 against the USD within the year, the investment could yield over 7% returns due to the fund's leveraged investment nature [4]. - Another hedge fund trader, Yu Yong, has begun increasing offshore RMB positions in a $200 million emerging market portfolio, believing that China's economic fundamentals and improved external trade conditions will support further RMB appreciation [8]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Citigroup's economist predicts that the RMB will strengthen due to China's push for RMB internationalization and easing trade tensions, forecasting a rise to 6.80 against the USD in the next 6-12 months [5]. - There is a growing bullish sentiment among hedge fund managers regarding the RMB, with some speculating that unforeseen events could push the RMB to as low as 6.60 against the USD [6]. - Recent data indicates that the offshore RMB has consistently traded stronger than the onshore RMB, reflecting a more optimistic outlook from foreign capital [7]. Group 3: Caution Among Large Asset Managers - Large asset management firms are taking a cautious approach to increasing RMB assets, focusing on global market conditions and the performance of the US stock market before making significant investments [12]. - Despite some hedge fund managers expressing disappointment, large asset managers have not yet incorporated RMB appreciation into their core investment strategies, limiting the potential impact of RMB appreciation [12][13]. - The differing investment philosophies between hedge funds and large asset managers highlight a preference for event-driven short-term gains among hedge funds, while large asset managers prioritize long-term macroeconomic trends [13].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicated his preference for Kevin Hassett to remain as the Director of the National Economic Council rather than nominating him for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, suggesting a shift in expectations regarding the Fed's leadership [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - The likelihood of Kevin Walsh being nominated for the next Federal Reserve Chair increased from slightly above 40% to around 60% following Trump's comments, while Hassett's chances dropped from approximately 35% to about 15% [1]. - Kevin Walsh, a visiting scholar at Stanford University, previously served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 and was considered by Trump for the Fed Chair position in 2017 before Powell was ultimately chosen [1]. Group 2: Economic Policy Context - Since taking office again, Trump has advocated for significant interest rate cuts and has publicly criticized Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has taken a significant turn, with President Trump expressing a preference for Kevin Hassett to remain as the Director of the National Economic Council, rather than moving to the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - Kevin Hassett was previously considered a strong candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, but Trump's recent comments suggest he may prefer Hassett to stay in his current role [2][5]. - Following Trump's remarks, Kevin Walsh has emerged as the leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with a probability of 59% for his appointment, while Hassett's probability has dropped to 14% [3]. - The selection process is being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has narrowed the candidates down to four, with an announcement expected before or after the upcoming Davos Forum [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The dollar index rebounded after Trump's comments, while U.S. stock indices collectively fell, reversing earlier gains [1][3]. - Spot gold and silver prices experienced sharp declines, with gold dropping by as much as 1.72% and silver falling by 6% during the trading day [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently facing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with some officials advocating for further rate cuts to support a weak job market, while others suggest maintaining the current rates due to persistent inflation above the 2% target [6]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [6].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump indicated his intention to keep Kevin Hassett as the Director of the National Economic Council rather than nominating him for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Nomination - Trump previously mentioned Kevin Walsh as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair position, while also acknowledging Hassett's capabilities [1] - Following Trump's remarks, the probability of Walsh being nominated for the Federal Reserve Chair increased from slightly above 40% to around 60%, while Hassett's chances dropped from approximately 35% to about 15% [1] Group 2: Background on Candidates - Kevin Walsh is currently a visiting scholar at Stanford University and served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 [1] - Trump had previously interviewed Walsh for the Federal Reserve Chair position in 2017 but ultimately chose Jerome Powell, whose term will end in May of this year [1] Group 3: Trump's Monetary Policy Stance - Since taking office again, Trump has advocated for significant interest rate cuts and has publicly criticized Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]

近日市场因韧性十足的劳动力市场数据以及通胀粘性对于美联储降息预期明显降温之际，美联储官员们 最新讲话所释放出的集体鹰派立场可谓令降息预期更加萎靡。货币政策立场长期以来温和鹰派的美联储 副主席菲利普.杰斐逊表示，基准利率已经非常接近既不刺激也不放缓经济的水平——这句话意味着在 副主席杰斐逊看来在2026年降息并不具备紧迫性，他强调，这使得美联储官员们能够在应对不断变化的 经济风险时处于有利位置。 近期多位美联储官员表达对于2026年货币政策的鹰派立场之际，正值"降息交易"主题就已经开始呈现出 明显的疲软态势。自12月的多项劳动力市场统计数据公布以来，叠加最新公布的11月PPI与12月CPI显示 美国通胀降温节奏缓慢，以及最新公布的美国零售销售额数据实现超预期增长，利率期货交易员们对于 美联储2026年降息预期可谓持续降温。 "CME美联储观察工具"显示，利率期货市场交易员们当前对于2026年美联储降息押注从2025年底曾经 定价的降息三次预期缩减至降息两次，且交易员们普遍押注2026年首次降息时机为6月，而不是此前押 注的3月。不过，"CME美联储观察工具"显示出的交易员降息预期仍然高于FOMC点阵图中值所显示 ...