Group 1 - The domestic equity market continued to experience fluctuations, with the Wind All A index declining by 0.27% last week and the average daily trading volume remaining around 1.3 trillion yuan [1] - On June 13, Guangzhou released a draft plan to boost consumption, which includes the complete removal of purchase, sale, and price restrictions, making it the first tier city to fully relax these measures [1] - The State Council's executive meeting emphasized the need to promote the construction of "good houses" and optimize existing policies to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market [1] Group 2 - From June 9 to June 13, bond market yields slightly declined, with the ten-year government bond active coupon falling by 1.1 basis points amid weak foreign trade and financial data [2] - The bond market's reaction to the China-US trade negotiations was muted, with government and corporate bonds being the main support items in the social financing data [2] - The current monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity, resulting in a generally loose funding environment, although the previously flat yield curve limits the downward space for long-term bonds [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with TMT leading the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index. The current index has stable support below but faces resistance above, and it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [2][3][4]. - The bond market is affected by factors such as economic data and capital conditions. Although the economic data in May is mixed, the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. The upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test will affect the bond market, and it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [6][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are expected to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. - For various metals, copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate; zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle, and it is recommended to consider shorting on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to tight supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly in the short term due to supply pressure and high inventory [18][22][25][28][30]. - For black metals, steel is affected by the Iran - Israel conflict but still has a downward trend; iron ore supply pressure will increase in the short term, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view; for coking coal and coke, although the futures have rebounded, the fundamentals are still weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies; silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [35][40][43][47][49][53]. - For agricultural products,粕类is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up; the pig price is expected to remain volatile with limited upward and downward space; corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level with insufficient upward momentum [56][59][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, the A - share market opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.66%. TMT led the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3]. - **News**: The National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for May, showing an increase in social consumer goods retail sales and a slowdown in fixed - asset investment. Overseas, there was a new round of military strikes between Iran and Israel [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 16, the A - share trading volume decreased by 250 billion yuan compared with the previous day, with a total turnover of 1.22 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.10%, - 0.25%, - 0.20%, and - 0.33% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider selling the July 5800 strike price put options to earn the premium [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market varied [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on June 16, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The short - term capital rate decreased, while the long - term capital rate remained stable [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The economic data in May is mixed, and the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test, it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital conditions [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals Gold - **Market Review**: International gold prices fell by 1.38% to close at $3384.54 per ounce, ending a three - day upward trend. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and the prices of gold and crude oil have declined [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. Silver - **Market Review**: International silver prices fluctuated slightly, closing at $36.301 per ounce, up 0.03%. The industrial attributes of silver make its trend relatively independent [10]. - **Outlook**: The improvement of trade relations and the expansion of fiscal and monetary policies in Europe have increased the optimism of the industrial manufacturing industry, which has a certain supporting effect on silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the flow of speculative funds and ETFs and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of June 16, the quotes of major shipping companies showed different price ranges [12]. - **Shipping Index**: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose by 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose by 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell by 6.79% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in May showed different trends [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market fluctuated downward, and it is expected that the price of the 06 contract will decline, driving other contracts to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 16, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved after the price decline, but they preferred to purchase after the contract change [14]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium has stagnated after rising to 10%, and there are different views on its future trend. The conflict between Iran and Israel has not had a significant impact on copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be limited, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased. It is expected to decline slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod processing enterprises showed different trends, and the terminal demand has certain resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 16, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was mainly among traders [18]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate changed little, and the production of zinc concentrate in May increased. The production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries of zinc increased, but the downstream consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes and consider shorting on rallies. The main contract is expected to find support between 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 16, the price of tin decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [22]. - **Supply**: The import volume of tin ore and tin ingots in April showed different trends, and the supply of tin ore is expected to be tight [23]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of solder in April increased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE decreased slightly, while the social inventory increased [23]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Due to the tight supply of tin ore, tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data [24]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import premium also decreased [25]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to decline slightly in June [25]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [25]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social inventory has a slight downward trend [26]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel market is affected by macro and industrial factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The main contract is expected to trade between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [27]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of stainless steel remained stable, and the trading was light [28]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore is still tight, and the price of nickel iron is weak, while the price of ferrochrome is relatively stable [28]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in May decreased, and it is expected to decrease slightly in June [29]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased, and futures inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 12, the price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the trading in the spot market was still relatively light [30]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June. The supply is still relatively high [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but it may face pressure in the off - season [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, and the whole - chain inventory has been increasing in recent weeks [32]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the market sentiment is still weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [33]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel weakened again, and the basis showed signs of stabilizing and strengthening [35]. - **Supply**: The steel production declined from a high level, with a significant reduction in finished steel products [35]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to decline, and it is affected by factors such as tariffs and the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of relevant policies on demand [35]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, with the plate inventory increasing [36]. - **Viewpoint**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has a certain impact on the steel market, but it does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly, and the 09 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated [38]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate also declined [38]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the future [39][40]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory also increased [40]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. In the short term, there is pressure on the iron ore price, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the 09 contract, with the price range expected to be between 720 - 670 yuan [40]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The coking coal futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot [43]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal production decreased slightly due to environmental inspections, and the import coal price continued to decline [43]. - **Demand**: The coking production and downstream pig iron production declined, but the demand still has certain resilience [43]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to accumulate, and the port inventory was at a historical high, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 800 - 850 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [45]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The coke futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The third - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [47]. - **Supply**: The coking production decreased due to environmental factors [47]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the downstream pig iron production continued to decline [47]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory decreased, with the coking plant, steel mill, and port inventories all showing a downward trend [47]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 1380 - 1430 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47]. Silicon Iron - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of silicon iron increased, and the 09 contract of silicon iron futures rose by 1.93% [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon iron production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [48]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased slightly this week [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron from five major steel products decreased, and the non - steel demand is also weak [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [49]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of manganese silicon increased, and the 09 contract of manganese silicon futures rose by 1.97% [50]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [50]. - **Supply**: The manganese silicon production increased slightly this week [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon from five major steel products decreased [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The manganese silicon market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume also increased [54]. - **Fundamentals**: The US EPA proposed to increase the biofuel blending volume in 2026 and 2027, which affected the price of soybean oil. The soybean processing profit in Brazil decreased, and the EU's soybean import volume increased [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The current operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybean crop has a fast planting progress and a high excellent rate, which puts pressure on the price. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate,

| 豆棕价差 2509 -476 -354 -122 -34.46% | | --- | | 王滚辉 Z0019938 2025年6月17日 | | 更加 | | 6月16日 涨跌 | | 江苏一级 8300 8130 170 2.09% | | 7576 7444 132 期价 Y2509 1.77% | | 幕差 Y2509 724 ୧୫୧ 38 5.54% | | 菜豆油价差 现货 1350 1400 -20 -3.57% | | 仓单 17552 17552 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 2509 1545 1524 21 1.38% 采豆油价差 | | 现价 广东24度 8790 8530 260 3.05% | | 期价 P2509 8258 7976 282 3.54% | | 某差 P2509 532 554 -22 -3.97% | | 现货墓差报价 广东6月 09+350 09 +400 -50 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港9月 8825.0 8560.1 264.8 3.09% | | 2.94% | | 0.00% | | 菜籽油 | | 6月16日 6月13日 涨跌 旅 ...

冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 冠通期货研究咨询部 王静 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜价格先抑后扬，价格重心下移，宏观方面，美国5月份CPI、PPI增长均不及市场预期，通胀压力放缓，美联储降息预期再度升高， | | | | | 周五以色列对伊朗核设施和军事设施袭击，导致全球油价飙升可能导致全球通胀水平上升，可能会促使美联储降息预期下降，美国就业数 | | | | | 据并不乐观，叠加目前中美贸易谈判尚无明确信号，市场情绪偏向于谨慎。基本面方面，供给端精铜矿港口库存本期有增加，但国内冶炼 | | | | | 费依然没有拐点的信号，截至2025年6月13日，现货粗炼费为-43.19美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.40美分/磅。虽目前冶炼厂暂无减产计划 | | | | | 但依然面临减量风险，支撑铜价底部空间。但目前为止，铜产量依然高位运行，尚未受到偏紧预期的影响，今年以来精炼铜产量一直处于 | | | | 沪铜 | 历年同期高位值状态。需求端，截至2025年4月，电解铜表观消费128.27万吨，相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨，涨跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong oscillation [6] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Rebound [6] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybeans No.2): Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand situation in various industries is complex, with some industries facing supply surpluses and weak demand, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market trends are diverse, including downward pressure, oscillation, and rebound opportunities [2][4][6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments are rising, but iron water production is falling, and port inventories are decreasing. The valuation is relatively high, and prices may decline if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons. Hold existing short positions and consider adding on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: High supply and weak demand persist. Coke production costs are falling, but steel mills are proposing price cuts, and inventories are increasing. The market follows the trend of finished products [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Entering the off-season, demand is weakening, production is decreasing, and inventory decline is slowing. Total demand is expected to show a front-loaded pattern, and prices are likely to fall [2] - Glass: There is no substantial positive news. Production capacity is slightly decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is at a high level. Long-term demand recovery is difficult [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating, with attention paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. Market sentiment is affected by policies and economic data, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Yields are stable, and the central bank is conducting reverse repurchase operations. The market is in a narrow rebound, and light long positions are recommended [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank purchases, currency credit, and geopolitical risks are influencing prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [4][6] - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by various factors and expected to oscillate strongly [6] Light Industry - Pulp: Spot prices are falling, costs are decreasing, and demand is in the off-season. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Logs: Port shipments are increasing, demand is relatively strong, and supply pressure is easing. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. Soybean oil is under pressure from high supply, but the market is boosted by biofuel policies. Prices are expected to rebound [6] - Meal: The USDA report is neutral, and the market is affected by weather, trade negotiations, and supply. Prices are expected to rebound, but the upside is limited [8] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The market is in a weak downward trend, with a loose supply-demand pattern and weak consumption. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, demand is decreasing, and the market is in a pattern of supply exceeding demand. Prices are under pressure and expected to oscillate [9] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing, but demand may be affected by polyester load. The short-term supply-demand pattern is tight, and prices follow oil prices [9] - PTA: Supply is rising, demand is weakening, and prices follow costs [9] - MEG: Supply and demand are showing a benign structure, and prices are supported. Attention should be paid to polyester load changes [9] - PR: Cost support is strong, and the market may adjust strongly. Follow-up from downstream is to be watched [9] - PF: Affected by oil prices and downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: USDA's June supply - demand data shows a 300,000 - ton increase in global palm oil production and a 588,000 - ton increase in inventory for 2025 - 26. Indonesia's production and inventory remain unchanged, while Malaysia's production rises by 300,000 tons and inventory by 190,000 tons. Geopolitical conflicts and policy利好 may push up palm oil futures in the short - term, but fundamentals suggest potential inventory increase may suppress prices [1]. - Soybean oil: Similar to palm oil, affected by the same supply - demand data and external factors, with potential for short - term upward movement but facing pressure from inventory growth [1]. Meal - Current US soybean trading is influenced by Sino - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel blending requirements. New US soybean plantings have a fast progress and high good - quality rates, which put pressure on prices. Brazilian soybean premiums are strong, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. Domestic meal is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [4]. Corn - Northeast traders have tight inventories and strong price - holding sentiment, and North China traders' shipping willingness is low. Corn prices are strong in the short - term but may face limited upward momentum after a rise. In the long - term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [7]. Livestock (Pigs) - Spot pig prices are in a volatile pattern. Slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, and secondary fattening has limited impact. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and while there is support from the reserve - purchase policy, upward drivers are weak [12]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to favorable weather in major producing regions. Raw sugar is likely to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, and domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak with increasing import competition and weak demand [14]. Cotton - Old - crop cotton basis is strong, supporting prices, but new - crop production is expected to be high. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, prices of various oils and fats products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 180 to 8530, and the price of P2509 increased by 0.91% [1]. - Inventory: Palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17,552 on June 13 compared to June 12, and the inventory of coastal soybean oil and rapeseed oil was also reported [1]. Meal - Price Changes: On June 13, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 20 to 2900, while the price of M2509 decreased by 8 to 3041. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 40 to 2610, and RM2509 remained unchanged [4]. - Supply and Demand: US soybean production and policy factors affect domestic meal prices. Brazilian soybean supply and domestic inventory trends also play important roles [4]. Corn - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.25% - 0.42%, and the price of corn starch 2507 decreased by 0.26% [7]. - Market Situation: The control of grain rights by traders, the supply and demand situation of downstream industries, and policy factors all influence corn prices [7]. Livestock (Pigs) - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of the main pig contract increased by 8.00%, and the prices of different delivery months also changed slightly [12]. - Market Situation: Factors such as slaughter weight, secondary fattening, supply - demand balance, and policy support affect pig prices [12]. Sugar - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.20%, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.30%. Spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [14]. - Industry Situation: Sugar production, sales, inventory, and import data all show different trends, indicating a complex market situation [14]. Cotton - Price Changes: On June 13, compared with June 12, the price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.18%, and the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.11%. ICE US cotton increased by 0.55% [15]. - Market Situation: Supply - side factors (such as inventory and production expectations) and demand - side factors (such as downstream consumption and export data) jointly affect cotton prices [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-16甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

Group 1 - Domestic factors are currently in a phase where their impact on the stock index market needs to be strengthened, with macroeconomic data showing resilience but lacking short-term positive catalysts [1][7] - The CPI in May decreased slightly by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial product prices [1][7] - In May, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1%, while imports fell by 3.4%, leading to a trade surplus of $103.22 billion [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI in May rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, suggesting insufficient recovery momentum [2][7] - Recent monetary policy measures from the central bank have created a "vacuum period" for domestic policies, with the market focusing on the actual effects of these policies [3][7] - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has reduced the necessity for large-scale market interventions by state funds, allowing the stock index to operate more independently [3][4] Group 3 - The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has introduced new volatility factors into the market, affecting global risk sentiment and asset prices [5][7] - Investors are advised to monitor the developments in the Iran situation closely, as it may impact commodity supply expectations and overall market stability [5][7] - The overall economic environment is characterized by low inflation and structural adjustments in exports, with a focus on observing the effectiveness of prior policy measures [7]

Core Viewpoint - China's export resilience remains despite a slowdown in growth, influenced by tariff negotiations and market conditions [1][4][5] Export Performance - In May, China's total export amount reached $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The export growth rate to the US significantly dropped to -34.5%, with the US accounting for only 9.1% of China's total exports [2][3] - Exports to ASEAN and EU showed strong growth, with ASEAN exports increasing by 14.8% and EU exports by 12% [3] Import Performance - China's import amount in May was $212.88 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, indicating a weakening domestic demand [4] - Key imports such as coal, crude oil, and natural gas saw significant declines, while high-tech products and machinery imports provided some support [4] Market Outlook - The ongoing tariff negotiations present considerable uncertainty, which may further impact exports in the second half of the year [5] - The company suggests enhancing negotiations with the US while also focusing on domestic economic strategies to boost demand and maintain export stability [5]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 15 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 市场进入第二轮宽幅震荡，警惕微盘股、新消费及创新药波动加剧风险 Market Enters Broad Consolidation; Watch for Increased Volatility in Micro-Caps, New Consumption, and Innovation Drugs 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA 上周我们认为市场或在顶部震荡后迎来第二波更大幅度的宽幅震荡；并强调规避短期过热的A股小微盘股以及港股新 消费板块。本周初，市场在对中美谈判的积极预期下风险偏好有所提升，但周四在缺乏进一步利好消息的情况下开 始回调，周五以色列伊朗冲突进一步导致市场风险偏好下降。具体来看，美股周五抹去本周涨幅，标普和纳指全周 小幅下跌，VIX恐慌指数升至21；港股连续两天回调，本周恒指微涨0.4%但恒生科技指数下跌0.9%；A股波动相对较 小，上证综指下跌0.3%，创业板指微涨0.2%，而科创50跌1.9%。行业来看，港股新消 ...