2025 年 6 月 23 日 供需收紧，下方有限 ---2025 年豆一期货半年度行情展望 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：豆一期价下方空间有限。 我们的逻辑：1）供应增幅放缓。2025 年国产大豆生产稳中有增，种植面积、单产、总产量小幅提升，国产大 豆连续第四年高产。进口大豆数量维持高位，总供应增加、但增幅放缓。从全球角度看，全球大豆产量及供应 增幅均放缓。2）需求增幅略高于供应增幅。市场需求稳中有增。低价激励下，国产大豆的食品和压榨需求预计 增长，进口大豆压榨需求稳中有增，因猪周期带动豆粕需求增长。此外，国产大豆还有储备需求托底调节：若 市场需求不足、储备需求可以增加；若市场需求较好、储备需求可以减量。3）供需收紧。据 USDA 对中国大豆 供需平衡表的预估，2025/26 年度中国大豆库存消费比下降：需求增幅略高于供应，期末库存微降、库存消费 比下降，供需收紧。 风险提示：2025 年美豆种植面积同比增加、全球大豆供需重回宽松周期、超预期经济风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 低价提振棉花需求 ---2025 年棉花期货半年度行情展望 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点： 2025 年下半年的国内外棉花市场目前看仍缺乏明显的上涨驱动，预计维持震荡走势的概率较大。 我们的逻辑： 预计 2025 年下半年国际棉花供应仍将偏宽松。巴西棉和澳棉的丰产基本奠定 2025 年下半年国际棉花供应 宽松的基调，关注美国棉花产量情况，兼顾印度、巴基斯坦、澳大利亚和土耳其等其他主产国情况，只有上述 主产国的棉花产量的合计减幅超预期，才会使得全球 2026 年上半年的供应收紧。美国政策不确定性影响全球 经济形势和国际贸易局势的稳定，棉花终端消费和直接贸易需求均不乐观。 预计 2025 年下半年国内棉花供应先紧后松。低棉价、产能扩张和抢出口这三个因素共同作用使得 2024/25 年度前 9 个月国内的棉花表观消费大幅超预期，市场担忧 8、9 月份国内棉花库存偏紧。但是，随着抢出口和 低价这两个因素减弱，三季度的棉花降库速度预计放缓；另外，国内棉花新作仍然是高产的预期；关注进口端 政策情况。初步预计 2025/26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: The Fed's new economic forecast predicts slower economic growth and rising inflation, but policymakers still expect rate cuts later this year. There are significant differences in opinions among officials, with 7 believing no rate cuts are needed, 8 expecting two cuts, 2 predicting one cut, and 2 forecasting three cuts. Fed officials Waller and Barkin have different views on the timing of rate cuts [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical situations had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, with dull spot transactions and stable social inventories. On the supply side, the periodic supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad plan to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the marginal TC of zinc ore spot. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased, and refined zinc production has recovered marginally. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down global economic growth, and there are concerns about a contraction in zinc demand. Whether the demand outlook is optimistic or pessimistic, there is a tendency of oversupply in the zinc market, putting downward pressure on long - term zinc prices [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to low social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. It is advisable to consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 is set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. As of June 20, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $55.27/ton, and that for domestic ore was 3,600 yuan/ton, both having been raised recently [10]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelters' profits have been continuously improved [13]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc production was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Downstream buyers over - purchased and replenished stocks at low prices, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of June 20, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $24.65/ton. Due to low social inventories, the spot premium is relatively high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 13, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 4,817 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance is considered to be in a "good place," with risks between the U.S. labor market and inflation targets becoming more balanced [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time since the rate cut cycle began last September [3] - Federal Reserve officials generally anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with rising inflation pressures and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rate cuts could begin as early as July, while Mary Daly expressed a more cautious view, indicating that actions are more likely in the fall [5] - Daly emphasized that monetary policy adjustments should be based on actual economic data rather than preset paths, highlighting the challenges of communication within the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's future policy adjustments will heavily depend on key indicators such as inflation, employment, and economic growth, as the U.S. economy faces multiple challenges [7]

半年度报告-美豆&豆粕 等待驱动，价格运行中枢上移 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： [Table_Summary] ★美豆 25/26 年度平衡表或趋紧 迄今为止美豆主产区天气良好，但7-8月才是决定单产的关键时期。 EPA 政策利好美豆压榨，但受限于产能、美豆压榨继续上调的空 间或有限；受特朗普政策影响，未来美豆出口变化可能很大，但预 计最坏情况也不会差于第一轮贸易战时期。我们测算美国 25/26 年 度平衡表大概率较上年度更紧张，这也就意味着 CBOT 大豆价格 震荡/震荡向上的概率更大。 ★预计豆粕价格运行中枢上移 农 产 品 CBOT 大豆震荡或震荡上行，而随着 7 月巴西玉米上市出口增加， 大豆出口将逐月递减，巴西出口 CNF 升贴水则将逐月抬升，两者 共同影响下国内进口大豆成本也将逐渐增加，对远月豆粕期价形成 支撑。现货供需上，当前豆粕处于季节性累库周期，但由于需求好 于预期，豆粕累库速度较慢。此外，国内豆粕压力最大的时候预计 出现在 7 月底-8 月，随后豆粕库存将出现拐点。如果我国 4 季度完 全不进口美豆，届时豆粕现货还可能出现紧缺。 ★后市展望 预计 CBOT 大豆难再跌破 ...

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/23 | 指标 | | 6月20日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 13 | 10 | 2500 г 2000 | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 -- 23/24 | | | 24/25 | | | 天津 | -87 | 10 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | | 日照 | -137 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -127 | 10 | -500 | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | | | 东莞 | -147 | 10 | | M9-M1 | | | | | | 湛江 | -11 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（6.16~6.20） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约下跌0.03%，收报于77990元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，伊以摩擦加剧，全球不确定加强。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意 愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存99200吨， 上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | ...

钴行业专家会： 刚果金再延长 3 个月出口禁令，影响如何 看待？20250622 摘要 刚果金延长钴出口禁令旨在消化中国高企的钴原料库存，此前禁令曾推 动钴原料价格上涨近 100%，金属钴价格上涨约 50%，原料价格上涨速 度明显快于成品。 中国钴原料进口量在禁令前四个月并未减少，但库存仍未完全消化。预 计 7 月后，中国企业可能面临原料短缺，中小企业或率先停产，大型企 业也将降低产能。 钴价未来走势或分两阶段：短期内受刚果金政策影响，电子盘和现货市 场价格波动；7 月底至 8 月中旬，企业原料库存不足可能再次推高价格， 并引发产业链生产结构调整。 目前钴供应增速仍大于需求增速，短期内供需基本面不会显著变化。国 内厂商需应对 7 月份可能出现的进口量减少，前期库存（包括原材料和 贸易商库存）是关键。 行业库存约七八万吨，原料端占比约 50%。若无锡电子盘涨至 24-25 万元，可能出现获利了结，影响工期。原料端价格预计上涨幅度大于金 属钴。 Q&A 刚果金最近发布的政策对钴行业有哪些影响？ 刚果金政府最近发布了一项文件，主要内容包括延长禁止出口钴的禁令。这一 禁令将从 6 月 22 日开始，再延长三个月，涉及 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas industry, logistics, and various sectors including aviation, express delivery, and chemicals [1][2][4][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Oil and Gas Industry - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical oil transport route, accounting for 20% of global oil liquid consumption, approximately 20 million barrels per day [1][2][3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel, leading to energy inflation and significant impacts on various sectors, particularly aviation [1][2][5]. - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have increased dramatically from 22,000 yuan to over 50,000 yuan, indicating that freight performance has outpaced stock price movements for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1][4]. Aviation Sector - A potential rise in oil prices to $130 per barrel would significantly affect airline stocks, as fuel surcharges may not fully cover increased costs, potentially suppressing demand [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that airline stock prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than temporary spikes in fuel prices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in investment [6]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a reduction in price wars, with companies like YTO Express raising prices, indicating a stabilization in pricing pressures [7]. - The application of unmanned vehicles in last-mile delivery is advancing, reducing costs by 0.6 to 0.8 yuan per parcel, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. Chemical Industry - The chemical products price index has risen to 4,210 points, driven by increasing oil prices, although demand seasonality limits the ability to pass on costs, leading to heightened cost pressures [9][10]. - The polyester POY price has increased by 3.6%, but the profit margins are narrowing due to seasonal demand constraints [10]. Fertilizer and Agricultural Chemicals - The price of potassium fertilizer has surged due to supply constraints from Israel, with domestic prices rising by 80 yuan to 3,040 yuan, indicating further potential for price increases [12]. - The pesticide sector is witnessing price increases, particularly for chlorantraniliprole, which has risen by 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply chain disruptions [11]. Metals Market - Gold prices have continued to decline, but the risk premium may rise due to the severity of the conflict, with potential for prices to reach around $3,400 per ounce [16]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise following the extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds a significant share of global cobalt production [17]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing mixed performance, with a decline in demand but potential for increased utilization in coal chemical processes due to high oil prices [19][20]. - Recent price increases in coal, particularly in the power sector, suggest a potential rebound in demand as electricity consumption rises [22]. Other Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC's production adjustments, will significantly influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [25][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong dividend yields and those positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices, such as coal and energy firms [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and their implications across various industries.

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...