记者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨周上祺 根据新华社报道，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议（以下简称"会议"），会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作， 包括"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""在保障和改善民生中扩大消费需求"等。如何理解中央政治局会议的有关部 署？下半年经济政策的侧重点在哪里？针对相关问题，21世纪经济报道记者专访了银河证券首席经济学家章俊。 章俊表示，积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策仍将坚持，超长期特别国债、专项债、政策性金融工具等既定政策不会半途 退出，不搞"急转弯"，目的是稳住企业、就业、市场预期，避免政策摇摆放大经济波动。同时，调控政策并非一成不变，而是 会根据经济运行的实际情况、市场情绪的变动、外部环境的突发事件等因素，及时调整政策的方向和力度。 货币政策方面，章俊预计下半年的首要目标仍然是经济增长和充分就业，下半年降息降准依然有望适时落地，货币宽松力度或 将超出市场预期。另外，政策、资金向"投资于人"再深化，可以强化民生领域资金投入，继续加大教育、医疗、养老、育儿等 领域的财政支持力度。同时，加强人力资本投资。此外，持续优化财政资金支出结构，重点投向民生领域，向困难地区和欠发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau, emphasizing the need for stable and flexible economic policies to address current challenges while maintaining growth and employment [1][5][6]. Economic Policy Focus - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining continuity and stability in policies, with a focus on employment, enterprises, and market expectations [6][7]. - Active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will continue, with no abrupt changes to existing measures like special government bonds and policy financial tools [1][6]. Monetary Policy Expectations - The primary goals for the second half of the year are economic growth and full employment, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to exceed market predictions [2][9]. - Structural monetary tools will be emphasized, particularly supporting small and micro enterprises, alongside promoting social financing cost reductions [9][10]. Investment in Human Capital - There will be a deepening of investments in human capital, focusing on education, healthcare, and social welfare, with increased fiscal support for these sectors [2][11]. - The government aims to optimize fiscal spending structures, directing funds towards underdeveloped regions and areas with significant population inflows [11][12]. Consumer Spending and Service Sector - The meeting stressed the importance of cultivating new growth points in service consumption, which is seen as crucial for expanding overall consumption and improving living standards [11][12]. - Policies will continue to promote consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, as a means to enhance quality of life and meet public needs [11][12]. Market Competition Regulation - The article notes a shift in policy focus from regulating low-price competition to a broader governance of market competition, addressing deeper issues like quality and intellectual property rights [12][13]. - This change reflects a commitment to establishing a unified market system and improving regulatory standards across regions and sectors [13].

● 情绪消费与悦己需求 >>年轻穆体 /2023年! 海玩市场则售额流增 >>模发原流 /2024年/ 中国"谷子经济"市场景极达 1 689 亿元 2025年提携预计资破10万亿元 网比增长期40% 心理健康服务需求准增 /2025年/ 加游、演唱会,责容美夜等猜费占比提升 造老化产品与摄务市场扩大 ● 线上消费占比扩大 >>2023-2025年上半年实物稿简历年零售额 13.02万亿元 -- #长8.4% 2023年 13.08万亿元 · 增长6.5% 2024年 2025年上半年 6.127/4元 - ■ 增长6% m ● 直播电商量构商业生态 /2023年/ 渗透率达到37.8%,同比增长24.3% /2024年/ 市场规模约5。8万亿元,占比近重成,年复合增长李真达18%,3880万职业主播放业 /2025年上半年/ 女男頭文破】,27j亿元,占线上零售总额比例組20%;用户观绩文被行化,年复合增长率达18.6%。 (CEO) 4000) 1990-1990 10 北京商报 全国消费亮点变迁 >> 2025年上半年 ● 消费升级类商品 体育娱乐用品、金银珠宝、家电、文化办公用品增速出0% ● 线上消 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for stable and flexible economic policies to address current challenges while maintaining growth and employment [1][5][6] - The meeting highlighted the importance of continuous and stable fiscal and monetary policies, with no abrupt changes to existing measures [6][7] - The focus for the second half of the year will be on enhancing consumer demand and improving living standards through targeted investments in education, healthcare, and social services [2][11] Group 2 - The economic growth target remains a priority, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support growth and employment [2][9] - The shift from "maximizing policy tool effectiveness" to "precise implementation" indicates a focus on quality over quantity in policy measures [8] - The emphasis on developing service consumption as a new growth point reflects a strategic pivot towards enhancing consumer spending in the service sector [10] Group 3 - The government aims to deepen investments in human capital and social welfare, with specific measures to increase funding for essential services and support disadvantaged regions [11] - The adjustment in policy regarding competition regulation signifies a broader approach to market governance, moving beyond just price control to encompass various forms of unfair competition [12][13]

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market shows signs of fatigue, with non-farm employment growth nearly stagnating over the past two months, which historically indicates economic distress or the need for intervention [4] - Despite the weak labor data, the probability of a recession remains manageable, with the New York Fed predicting a 28.71% chance of recession in the next 12 months [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in consumption and investment due to high interest rates and uncertainty in tariff policies, although the overall economic resilience was strong in the first half of the year with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% [4] Domestic Policy Insights - The current policy focus is on observing the economic conditions in consumption, exports, and real estate, with a shift towards long-term mechanisms for sustainable economic development [4] - The government is expected to prioritize high-quality economic development and establish long-term sustainable growth mechanisms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4] - If GDP growth falls below 4.7% in the third quarter, there may be considerations for additional policy measures [4] Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow upward trend, supported by strong economic fundamentals and high market activity, although valuation recovery may slow down [4] - The focus for investment should be on long-term allocations in sectors such as banking, dividends, and broad-based indices, with a cautious approach to chasing high valuations [4] - The market is witnessing a structural rotation with opportunities in themes like technology (AI, computing power, chips), military, pharmaceuticals, stablecoins, rare earths, and cyclical sectors [4] Asset Class Outlook - A-shares are viewed as relatively optimistic, while Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks maintain a neutral stance [6] - Credit bonds and convertible bonds are also seen as relatively optimistic, indicating a favorable outlook for fixed-income investments [6] - The outlook for commodities like oil remains cautious, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the global market [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of cultivating new growth points in service consumption, which is seen as having higher frequency, greater growth potential, and stronger employment generation compared to goods consumption [1][5][10] Group 1: Policy and Economic Context - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, with a focus on service consumption as a key area for economic work in the second half of the year [1] - A report from Peking University indicates that by 2025, service consumption vouchers could leverage an additional 6.76 yuan for every 1 yuan of subsidy, potentially generating nearly 700 billion yuan in extra consumption [1][3] Group 2: Trends in Service Consumption - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that service retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a continuous rise in its share of total consumption [2][8] - The shift towards online service consumption is accelerating, becoming a key direction for expansion and upgrading, with innovative ecosystems playing a structural role [2][8] Group 3: Mechanisms for Stimulating Consumption - Digital platforms are breaking through traditional consumption stimulation challenges through three mechanisms: precise demand sensing, activation of multiplier effects, and addressing public service gaps [3][4] - The multiplier effect is evidenced by a 1:6.76 leverage ratio, where single-point subsidies trigger chain reactions in consumption, enhancing the overall economic impact [3][4] Group 4: Competitive Dynamics in Service Consumption - The article discusses how healthy competition among platforms is crucial for reshaping market boundaries, enabling the release of dormant demand and enhancing service accessibility across urban and rural areas [6][7] - The focus of competition is shifting towards cultural value and emotional experiences, moving service offerings from mere functionality to meaningful engagement [6][7] Group 5: Future Outlook for Service Consumption - Service consumption is projected to become a primary engine of national economic growth, with platforms expected to create 920 million new jobs from the anticipated 700 billion yuan consumption increase [9] - The service sector's contribution to GDP is currently at 56.7%, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed economies, positioning service consumption as a critical area for expanding domestic demand [8][9]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the significant growth in the food delivery market, particularly during the summer, driven by increased investments from online platforms [2][3][4] - "Qiao Xia Ba Zi Rou," a local restaurant, has seen its daily orders increase from a maximum of 150 to over 300, with peak periods reaching 400, resulting in a daily revenue jump from around 9,000 yuan to nearly 20,000 yuan [1][2] - The integration of online and offline business models has transformed traditional dining experiences, allowing restaurants to tap into new customer bases and increase order volumes [2][9] Group 2 - Data from Meituan indicates that during the summer promotional period, the platform's merchant delivery orders surged by 65% compared to regular periods, with over 1.5 billion daily orders recorded [3][4] - The number of "ten-thousand order stores" has increased by 274% month-on-month, showcasing the explosive growth in the food delivery sector [15] - Traditional supermarkets, like Mingdu Supermarket, have also benefited from online integration, with a reported threefold increase in orders and a 20-fold increase in revenue from their new delivery platform [10][12] Group 3 - The influx of younger consumers into the online shopping space has led to a shift in purchasing habits, with many opting for convenient delivery options [6][10] - The introduction of consumption vouchers has proven effective in stimulating demand, with each 1 yuan spent on vouchers generating an additional 6.76 yuan in consumer spending [12][14] - The overall market dynamics have shifted, with small and medium-sized businesses experiencing a 44.5% increase in offline revenue due to online promotional efforts [14][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the post-95 and post-00 generations becoming the main consumer force, there is a shift towards emotional value-driven demand, leading to rapid growth in service consumption and experience economy, particularly in sectors like trendy toys, health management, and cultural experiences [1] - From an investment perspective, new consumption overall is considered to have high valuations, necessitating a selective approach to stocks with valuation safety margins; traditional consumption is viewed with caution due to low valuations but lack of catalysts, requiring a wait for signals [1] - The investment process in new consumption companies has prompted new considerations, with a focus on the long-term trends in the IP industry and the international expansion of outstanding Chinese companies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of cultivating new growth points in service consumption, which is seen as having higher frequency, greater growth potential, and stronger employment generation capabilities compared to goods consumption [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting has set the focus for economic work in the second half of the year on effectively releasing domestic demand potential, particularly through service consumption [1] - A report from Peking University Guanghua School of Management indicates that by 2025, service consumption vouchers could leverage an additional 6.76 yuan for every 1 yuan of subsidy, potentially driving nearly 700 billion yuan in additional consumption [1][2] Group 2 - Digital platforms are breaking through traditional consumption stimulation challenges by employing three mechanisms: demand perception revolution, multiplier effect activation, and addressing livelihood pain points [2][3] - The demand perception revolution involves constructing micro-demand maps based on real-time market information, significantly enhancing policy precision [2] - The multiplier effect reveals that single-point subsidies can activate chain consumption reactions, transforming fiscal resources into catalysts for economic activity [2] Group 3 - The political bureau's emphasis on cultivating new growth points in service consumption aims to break traditional service industry barriers and reconstruct consumption scenarios [4][5] - Healthy competition among platforms is identified as a key driver for reshaping market boundaries, releasing dormant demand, and enhancing service accessibility across urban and rural areas [5][6] - The competition is shifting focus towards cultural value and emotional experiences, moving service offerings from mere functionality to meaningful creation [5] Group 4 - Service consumption is projected to become a primary engine of national economic growth, with the service sector's value added accounting for 56.7% of GDP in 2024 [7] - The service sector's growth potential is highlighted as a critical breakthrough for expanding domestic demand, with significant contributions to employment and economic stability [7][8] - The rise of service consumption is seen as a necessary trend in China's economic development phase transition and structural upgrade, supported by favorable policies and platform competition [8]

Core Theme - The 2025 "Love in Shanghai + Year" event focuses on the theme "Love in Shanghai, Romance Without Boundaries" with a grand main venue at Jing'an Suhewan MixC [1] Event Structure - The event adopts an innovative "1+4+N" framework, consisting of 1 grand opening ceremony, 4 key marriage and dating consumption integration activities, and N themed brand activities [1] - A collective wedding for 100 couples will be held on Qixi Festival, featuring marriage services and pop-up brand markets to enhance the romantic atmosphere and consumer experience [3] Key Activities - Four major activities include: 1. Newcomer Parade Ceremony 2. "+" Discount Gift Packs 3. "Super Koi" Lottery 4. "Great Happiness Experience Route" to unlock new romantic experiences [3] - A series of special activities will be launched in Jing'an District to offer a fashionable and romantic feast for global newcomers [3] Consumer Engagement - The official platform "Service Shanghai" WeChat mini-program has started global newcomer recruitment, allowing for easy registration, collective wedding lottery, and "Super Koi" lottery sign-ups [3][17] - Various consumer vouchers are available, including multi-industry vouchers with discounts such as 20 yuan off for purchases over 300 yuan [8][10] Promotional Campaigns - Major shopping malls like Jiuguang Department Store and Suhewan MixC will conduct themed promotions to ignite consumer enthusiasm [13] - The "Great Happiness Experience Route" combines Shanghai landmarks and romantic culture, providing multiple travel options for newcomers [14]