1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1359，较上一交易日下调37个基点。 国泰海通宏观团队表示，2025年二季度货币政策报告对人民币汇率的表述较一季度货币政策执行报告明 显缓和，表明汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定，货币政策的执行节奏将"以我为主"。 美元指数在98关口上方震荡，截至9时30分，报98.2848。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）8月19日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘跌68 点，报7.1860，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1792。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.18872。 ...

Core Points - The Central Bank of Mauritania (BCM) has significantly reduced its inflation forecast, noting a decline in domestic inflation from 3.0% in July 2024 to 1.3% in July 2025, indicating a clear downward trend in inflation [1] - The BCM's monetary policy committee decided to maintain the main interest rates, with the benchmark rate at 6%, the lending facility rate at 6.5%, and the deposit facility rate at 2% [2] - This decision aims to consolidate economic stability, further support price stability, and allow room for future monetary policy adjustments [2]

摘要今日周一（8月18日），在国际黄金市场上，周二呈现出窄幅波动的态势。此时，投资者们的目光 紧紧聚焦于本周即将盛大开幕的杰克森霍尔全球央行年会，他们期望从这场盛会中探寻到美联储未来货 币政策走向的关键线索。就具体行情而言，现货黄金的价格大致徘徊在3333.65美元/盎司的水平；而12 月交割的COMEX黄金期货价格也处于3377美元/盎司附近。 今日周一（8月18日），在国际黄金市场上，周二呈现出窄幅波动的态势。此时，投资者们的目光紧紧 聚焦于本周即将盛大开幕的杰克森霍尔全球央行年会，他们期望从这场盛会中探寻到美联储未来货币政 策走向的关键线索。就具体行情而言，现货黄金的价格大致徘徊在3333.65美元/盎司的水平；而12月交 割的COMEX黄金期货价格也处于3377美元/盎司附近。 【要闻速递】 除了这场举世关注的央行年会之外，投资者同样将视线投向了周三即将公布的美联储7月会议纪要，试 图从中挖掘更多有关政策走向的细节信息。与此同时，地缘政治局势也充满变数。美国总统特朗普于周 一宣称已着手推动俄乌领导人进行会晤安排，然而，美国对于乌克兰的安全承诺具体细节至今仍不明 朗。这些不确定性因素犹如潜流暗涌，有望继 ...

鲍威尔曾利用在杰克逊霍尔的年度演讲来暗示货币政策的重大转变。2024年，在为抑制疫情后的一波通 胀而将联邦基金利率维持在高位后，他确认美联储即将进行一年多来的首次降息。这一次，鲍威尔可能 会利用这次峰会来暗示，美联储是否准备好自去年12月以来恢复降息。 鲍威尔也可能会阐明他如何看待美联储当前的困境。美联储的任务是利用货币政策来保持低通胀和高就 业。但最近，在美国总统特朗普发起了前所未有的提高关税的运动后，这两个经济指标都已走向了错误 的方向。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 华尔街将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上的讲话，他可能会在讲话中暗 示美联储是否准备在9月的下一次会议上降息。 鲍威尔定于北京时间周五晚10点发表题为《经济展望与框架评估》的演讲。这次谈话可能会揭示这位美 联储主席对抗击通胀的看法，以及他是否认为美联储已准备好将其基准联邦基金利率从目前4.25%至 4.5%的区间下调。他和其他美联储官员认为，目前的利率水平足以对经济增长构成"温和"压力，并对 通胀施加下行压力。 给降息希望泼冷水 鉴于令人警惕的通胀数据，市场参与者对9月降息可能过于乐观。B ...

金融研究 2025年8月19日 星期二 金融期货早班车 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 2,665 亿元，货币回笼 1,120 亿元，净投放 1,545 亿元。 交易策略：风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议中长线 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏不及预期。 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 18 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.85%，报收 3728.03 点；深成 指上涨 1.73%，报收 11835.57 点；创业板指上涨 2.84%，报收 2606.2 点；科创 50 指数上涨 2.14%， 报收 1124.82 点。市场成交 28,091 亿元，较前日增加 5,363 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.46%)， 综合(+3.43%)，计算机(+3.33%)涨幅居前；房地产(-0.46%)，石油石化(-0.1%)，有色金属(+0.14%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,034/165/1,220。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 54、-191、-68、205 亿元，分别变动-70、-9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q2 monetary policy implementation report indicates that there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels, and promoting service consumption can help boost domestic demand [8]. - The hog market is under pressure with an oversupply situation, and the 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish, with short - term contracts showing some resilience and long - term contracts facing potential adjustments [11]. - Various commodities have different trends, such as gold and silver being affected by PPI data, copper lacking driving forces and oscillating, and zinc facing downward pressure [13][17][22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Central Bank Policy and Consumption - The central bank's Q2 2025 monetary policy implementation report emphasizes that promoting service consumption by improving high - quality service supply is important. In 2024, the service consumption proportion in residents' per - capita consumption expenditure was about 46.1%, with significant growth potential [8]. 3.2 Hog Market - Since July, leading hog groups have increased supply and reduced weight, causing the spot price to decline. The market's previous bullish expectations have failed, and there is an oversupply situation. The 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. 3.3 Bond Market - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The central bank's policy emphasizes "continuing easing" and "structural adjustment." Short - term contracts have some resilience, while long - term contracts may face adjustments due to inflation expectations, macro - policies, and equity market risk preferences [11]. 3.4 Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by PPI data. Gold and silver prices declined slightly, and their trend intensities are - 1 [13][17][20]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and oscillates. US 7 - month PPI growth and changes in Chilean copper production and China's copper imports affect the market [22]. - **Zinc**: Faces downward pressure, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][25][26]. - **Lead**: LME inventory reduction provides some support for prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][28][29]. - **Tin**: Oscillates within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][32][33]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum's volatility converges, alumina's center of gravity moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are 0, and that of alumina is - 1 [13][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel oscillates narrowly based on fundamentals, and stainless steel oscillates due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][38][42]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply disruptions and improving demand may lead to a continued bullish oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [13][43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to market sentiment changes, and polysilicon requires attention to market news. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [13][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend intensity is 1 [13][51][52]. - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils oscillate widely, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][54][58]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferrosilicon oscillates weakly due to weak sector sentiment, and silicomanganese oscillates widely with a firm spot price. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][59][61]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both oscillate at high levels, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][62][64]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][65][68]. - **Petrochemicals**: Paraxylene is in a short - term oscillating market with increased supply and decreased demand but improved terminal demand. PTA has a weak reality and strong expectations, suitable for a monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG oscillates within a range, and attention should be paid to terminal demand improvement [13][69].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Long - term, the bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained a "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy and there is high tariff uncertainty. But short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect since late June has put pressure on the bond market, and the short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: A - shares hitting new highs suppressed the bond market, with treasury bond futures falling across the board and long - end bonds experiencing larger declines. The yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds approached the 2.0% and 1.8% thresholds respectively [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with long - end yields rising significantly by 4 - 6bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.785%, up 4bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank increased its investment to offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funding market tightened marginally. There were 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates rose, while medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] - **Conclusion**: The long - term bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds and pay attention to the central bank's investment during the tax - period this week [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policy support will be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises and the diversification of the financial market [13] - On the evening of August 17, Eastern Time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington, and on the afternoon of August 18, Eastern Time, he was scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on August 18, including settlement prices, trading volumes, and open interest, were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and other money - market data were presented [28][29] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [32]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a complex economic landscape as he prepares for his farewell speech, balancing the dual objectives of price stability and full employment amid conflicting economic indicators [3][4][6] Economic Indicators - Current economic data presents a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI declining and corporate orders decreasing, indicating pressure on the real economy [4] - Conversely, the job market remains strong with low unemployment rates and stable wage growth, suggesting a relatively healthy economy [4] - Inflationary pressures persist, indicating that price stability has not yet been fully achieved [4][7] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell is caught in a dilemma between addressing high inflation, which could erode purchasing power, and high unemployment, which could lead to social issues and reduced economic growth [3][4] - The internal debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding which risk is greater—high inflation or high unemployment—reflects the complexity of the current economic situation [3] Market Expectations - Investors and the Trump administration anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, hoping it will create a more accommodative monetary policy environment and stimulate economic growth [3][4] - The communication surrounding any potential rate cut is crucial, as it could signal either a temporary measure or the beginning of a series of cuts, impacting market confidence [5] Historical Context - Powell's tenure has been marked by unprecedented challenges, including aggressive monetary policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures [6] - He aims to emulate the flexible policy adjustments of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan while navigating the current economic uncertainties [7]