·中国人民银行与韩国央行续签双边本币互换协议 ·英国央行维持利率在4%不变 ·澳洲联储维持关键利率在3.6%不变 ·挪威央行将基准利率维持在4.00%不变 ·马来西亚央行将隔夜政策利率维持在2.75%不变 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行与韩国央行续签双边本币互换协议，互换规模为4000亿元人民币／70万亿韩元，协议有 效期五年，经双方同意可以展期。 ·美联储官员发言一览： 美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，鉴于利率已降至更接近中性的水平，美联储在未来政策行动中应更加谨慎。 理事米兰再次公开呼吁进行更激进的降息，称美联储的政策过于紧缩，保持政策限制性的时间越长，经 济下行的风险就越大。米兰重申中性政策利率远低于当前水平，应该通过一系列50基点降息实现。 理事库克表示，每次美联储会议对货币政策而言都是实时的，货币政策并未设定固定路径；美联储的双 重使命面临的两方面风险均有所上升；当前政策适度具有限制性。12月有可能降息，但将取决于后续新 出炉的信息。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美联储可能很快需要通过购债来扩大资产负债表规模，以满足流动性需 求，但此举不代表货币政策立场的改变。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆预计，货币政策处于适 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing over the past year aims to support the labor market, with an estimated policy adjustment space of 50 to 75 basis points remaining [2] - The Federal Reserve has cumulatively lowered interest rates by 150 basis points over the past year to ensure the labor market remains close to full employment [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a wait-and-see attitude in its monetary policy meetings this year, influenced by the extensive tariff policies of the Trump administration, and has implemented rate cuts again in September and October after a noticeable cooling in the labor market [2] Group 2 - As of November 6, the two-year Chinese government bond yield is at 1.43%, while the ten-year yield is at 1.81%. In the U.S., the two-year yield has decreased by 6 basis points to 3.57%, and the ten-year yield has also decreased by 6 basis points to 4.11% [7] - The top ten gainers and losers in Chinese dollar bonds are listed, indicating significant price fluctuations in various bonds, with some experiencing gains over 42% while others saw declines exceeding 52% [10][11] - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $33,433 billion, up by $4.7 billion from the end of September, reflecting a stable economic foundation and favorable long-term trends [12]

Economic Impact - The White House economic advisor Hassett stated that the government "shutdown" could have a far greater impact on the U.S. economy than previously expected, potentially causing long-term damage to government efficiency and leading to a slowdown in Q4 GDP growth [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the "shutdown" continues, economic growth in Q4 could be halved [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson suggested that the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions as interest rates are closer to neutral levels [2] - New York Fed President Williams mentioned that the Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity needs, although this does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard projected that monetary policy is in a moderately tight to neutral range, with 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment space remaining if rates decline further [2] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for November is at 50.3, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce [5] Oil and Bond Market - The main contract for U.S. oil rose by 0.69% to $59.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.47% to $63.68 per barrel [6] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.43 basis points to 3.560%, the 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.682%, the 10-year yield rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.097%, and the 30-year yield increased by 2.04 basis points to 4.699% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The December monetary policy will be a "real balancing act" between employment and inflation targets, as inflation remains high without signs of decline, while the economy shows some resilience [1] Economic Conditions - Many Americans are struggling with housing and other living costs, indicating economic pressure on the middle and lower-income groups [1] - There is evidence that these groups are facing issues related to economic affordability, which poses risks to consumer confidence and spending [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rhythm of the central bank's bond - buying is smoother than expected, but the resonance between the fundamentals and monetary policy may still push up the bond market [6]. - The monetary policy is gradually reaching more consensus on aggregate easing, and the intensification of monetary policy is entering the implementation stage as previously predicted [8]. - The bond market may still have upward momentum, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [8]. Summary According to the Directory 01 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - The central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase withdrawal led to a marginal convergence of capital prices after an initial loose period, with overall price stability. The central bank restarted bond - buying with a purchase of 20 billion yuan, the lowest level since the start of bond - buying and significantly lower than the 100 - 300 billion yuan level in 2024. The 70 billion yuan 3 - month repurchase in November was fully hedged [8][34]. - The symbolic significance of the central bank's bond - buying may be more positive than the actual scale, which is bearish. The central bank's small - scale bond - buying is mainly due to concerns about the sharp decline in bond yields during the previous bond - buying period [8][34]. - The weakening of foreign trade data is affected by both the holiday misalignment and the decline in external demand, and foreign trade pressure still exists. The macro - financial and economic data to be released next week may be weak, especially in the real estate sector [8]. - The monetary policy is expected to intensify, and the bond market may have upward momentum, with the curve likely to continue to steepen [8]. 02 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) No relevant content provided. 03 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - **Domestic**: In October, trade data showed a significant year - on - year decline in export growth, turning negative and lower than expected. The decline in exports was due to short - term factors and structural pressures, including the high - base effect, holiday misalignment, and the impact of US tariff policies. The natural decline in foreign trade is a more concerning trend. Moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented [8][19]. - **Overseas**: Due to the US government shutdown, the labor department missed employment data for two consecutive months. ADP employment data and the significant increase in Challenger job - cuts point to a loosening US labor market. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI declined slightly, the service PMI rebounded, mainly driven by new orders and business activities. The US economy is still growing at a slower pace but remains resilient [8][19]. 04 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - **Fundamentals**: The central bank's bond - buying and repurchase operations did not exceed expectations. The bond market declined slightly due to the weakening of bond - buying sentiment and the marginal convergence of the capital side. The weakening of foreign trade data and the upcoming release of potentially weak macro - financial and economic data may affect the bond market. The redemption fee rate of public funds still disturbs the bond market sentiment [8]. - **Indicator Monitoring**: Data on bond yields, reverse - repurchase operations, and various bond - related indicators such as bond futures prices, positions, and spreads are presented, showing the performance and changes in the bond market [43][47][94]. 05 Equity Broad - based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 31) - **Fundamentals**: Data on the ROE of major equity broad - based indices are presented, showing the relationship between the ROE of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc., and macro - economic data [96][99][101]. - **Liquidity and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring**: No relevant in - depth analysis content provided. 06 Macro - economic Medium - term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P32 - 50) No relevant content provided. 07 Macro - economic Long - wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P51 - 52) No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal this week reached the highest level since February 2024, but the liquidity remained generally loose at the beginning of the month. After the large - scale maturity of the 3M repurchase on Friday, the liquidity tightened marginally, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3%. The central bank may increase hedging after such a tightening, and the liquidity is expected to return to stability [3][7]. - The government bond net payment scale will rise to a new high since mid - July next week. The central bank's possible increase in the scale of buying treasury bonds in the open market to replace repurchase operations to supplement medium - and long - term liquidity is worthy of attention [3][18]. - It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November will be about 1.84 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of about 620 billion yuan compared with October. The government bond issuance in December is expected to be about 2.37 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 77 billion yuan [3][30]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Liquidity Review - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal was 1.5722 trillion yuan this week, reaching the highest level since February 2024. The 3M repurchase operation on Wednesday offset the maturity on Friday. The liquidity remained loose at the beginning of the month and tightened marginally on Friday after the 3M repurchase maturity, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3% [3][7]. - After the cross - month period, the repurchase market activity increased. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase rose by 1.27 trillion yuan to 7.97 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase returned above 12 trillion yuan but decreased significantly on Friday [3][14]. - The new - caliber liquidity gap index fluctuated downward to - 838.3 billion on Thursday and rebounded to - 488.7 billion on Friday, still lower than last Friday. The weekly excess reserve ratio dropped to 0.9%, a new low since mid - September [3][14][18]. 1.2 Next Week's Liquidity Outlook - The treasury bond payment scale next week is expected to be 315.9 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale in 12 regions is 285.1 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 230.5 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale will rise from 36.8 billion yuan this week to 424.2 billion yuan, a new high since mid - July [20][22]. - The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale next week will decrease from 2.07 trillion yuan to 495.8 billion yuan. The new stock issuance of Nante Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange may bring some disturbances to the exchange liquidity price from Tuesday to Wednesday. The central bank is expected to increase liquidity injection to stabilize the market [3][38]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1Y Shibor rate dropped 1.7BP to 1.65% this week, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.2BP to 1.63% [3][39]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.01 billion yuan to 163.8 billion yuan this week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 23.9 billion yuan, - 57.5 billion yuan, 170.6 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the 6M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 38% [3][42]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks decreased this week, while those of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [43]. - The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week. The 3M supply - demand index rose, while the other maturity varieties decreased slightly [54]. III. Bill Market - The bill rates rebounded significantly this week but remained at a low level overall. The 3M and 6M national bill rates rose 36BP and 41BP respectively compared with October 31, reaching 0.37% and 0.61% [59]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted slightly this week, and the credit spread narrowed slightly. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings weakened, while the willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, and the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings increased [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the treasury bond market. Positive factors include high geopolitical risks driving up market risk - aversion and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading operations. Negative factors are the accelerated bond supply, reduced positions, and rising inflation expectations. The short - term technical support is effective, and investors can focus on rebound opportunities while controlling risks and monitoring policy trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: High geopolitical risks increase market risk - aversion, driving up demand for treasury bond futures. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading operations signals monetary policy support and boosts market confidence [2] - **Negative Factors**: The accelerated bond supply and significant reduction in positions suppress futures prices. Rising inflation expectations and climbing yields of overseas treasury bonds indirectly affect market sentiment [2] Market Indicators - **Yield**: The report presents the historical data of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] - **Funding Rate**: It shows the historical data of deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rates (1 - day and 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] - **Term Spread**: Data on the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] - **Open Interest**: Historical open interest data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [8] - **Trading Volume**: Historical trading volume data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [9] Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are provided, with different time ranges for each [10][11][12][16] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Data on the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented, with different time ranges for each [14][15][17][18] - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL inter - variety spreads are provided, with different time ranges for each [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Friday's marginal tightening of funds and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations do not indicate a marginal shift in the central bank's attitude. Since June, liquidity has been mainly characterized by easing, and the number of optimistic funding indicators has further increased in November. The central bank's easing is gradually being realized, and DR001 could move towards 7 - day OMO - 20BP. For certificates of deposit, continue with the current allocation and wait for the capital gain game space after the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [4][5]. - The marginal tightening of funds on Friday and the central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operations are due to frictions in fund delivery, not a change in the central bank's attitude. With OMO returning to net investment, the probability of stable low - level funding prices is higher. The "shortening and lengthening" operation does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude. The central bank's policy is supportive, and it is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1. 1. Loose Policy is Being Realized, and Funding Prices are Becoming More Optimistic - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank adopted a "shortening and lengthening" approach. It carried out advance equal - volume roll - overs of repurchase agreements and continuously withdrew short - term liquidity while ensuring a proper level of overall liquidity. For example, on November 4, it announced bond - buying of 200 billion yuan in October, and on November 5, it advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement due on November 7 [14]. - **Fund Quantity**: The bank's net lending ability is closely linked to the central bank's operations. Institutions slightly increased leverage. After the fiscal support at the beginning of the month and the injection of liquidity through bond - buying, the net lending of state - owned and joint - stock banks continued to rise. Institutions increased leverage due to low funding prices, and the segmentation of non - bank funds remained at a low level [14]. - **Funding Prices**: The performance of funding price indicators is more optimistic. DR001 was mostly stable at 1.31%, Shibor 3M continued to decline, and DR007 started to approach the 7 - day OMO rate. Since October, the proportion of DR001 weighted around 1.31% has become more concentrated, Shibor 3M has been on a downward trend since the central bank announced "restarting bond - buying" on October 28, and DR007 has shown a trend of approaching the 7 - day OMO rate [16]. - **Reasons for Friday's Marginal Tightening of Funds**: The marginal tightening of funds on November 7 was due to the friction in fund delivery. Although the central bank advanced the roll - over of the 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase agreement, the large - scale withdrawal of 7 - day liquidity caused short - term disturbances, but this does not represent a change in the central bank's attitude [18]. - **Analysis of the "Shortening and Lengthening" Operation**: Different from the period of financial de - leveraging from 2016 to 2017, the current central bank's "shortening and lengthening" operation is to inject medium - and long - term liquidity while reducing the price of relevant liquidity tools, which is beneficial for banks' net interest margins and the stability of funding prices at a low level [20][21]. - **Certificate of Deposit Situation**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of small and medium - sized banks on certificates of deposit decreased significantly. Non - bank institutions such as money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries were more active in trading before the bond - buying announcement. In the future, the lower limit of certificates of deposit is constrained by the non - cut of policy interest rates, but it is difficult for 1 - year certificates of deposit to be significantly higher than 1.63%. The current level of certificates of deposit can continue to be allocated [23][24]. 3.2. 2. Weekly Tracking of Funds and Certificates of Deposit and Key Matters - **Central Bank**: This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. Next week, 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [32]. - **Government Bonds**: This week, the net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan. Next week, the net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. There will be a 30 - year treasury bond issuance on November 14, and the issuance proportion of treasury bonds and local government bonds with a term of 10 years and above is about 31.03% and 73.00% respectively [32]. - **Bills**: After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. - **Exchange Rate**: This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. - **Fund Supply and Demand**: The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Certificates of Deposit - Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89]. 3.3. 3. Central Bank: Pay Attention to the Roll - Over of 6 - Month Repurchase Agreements - **This Week**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from reverse repurchases, and advanced the equal - volume roll - over of the 3 - month repurchase agreement. The balance of reverse repurchases was 49.58 billion yuan as of November 7, still higher than the seasonal level [36]. - **Next Week**: 49.58 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 100 billion yuan of repurchase agreement funds and 90 billion yuan of MLF due in November [38]. 3.4. 4. Government Bonds: Next Week's Net Payment will Rise to 36.92 Billion Yuan - **This Week**: The net financing of government bonds was 13.84 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.15576 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 83.4%, and a net payment of 3.68 billion yuan [42]. - **Next Week**: The net financing will be 24.98 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 1.17987 trillion yuan and a net financing progress of 85.1%, and a net payment of 36.92 billion yuan. The net financing progress of treasury bonds is 86.1% (higher than the historical average), and the issuance progress of new local government general bonds, new local government special bonds, and special refinancing bonds is 86.4%, 88.3%, and 94.4% respectively (lower than the historical average) [42][43]. 3.5. 5. Bills: The Bill - Boosting Effect Weakens, and Bill Interest Rates Generally Increase - After the month - end, the bill - boosting effect weakened, and bill interest rates generally increased. As of November 7, the 3 - month and 6 - month straight - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks all increased compared with October 31 [52]. 3.6. 6. Exchange Rate: The RMB Depreciates - This week, the RMB depreciated by 0.13% against the US dollar. The swap points of USDCNH/USDCNY were around 1400 points/1300 points. The central bank's regulation of the exchange rate was weak, with the mid - price of the US dollar against the RMB slightly depreciating, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 358 pips [54][58]. 3.7. 7. Market Fund Supply and Demand: The Net Lending of State - Owned Banks Continues to Recover - The net lending of state - owned banks increased, the net lending of money market funds and wealth management subsidiaries decreased, and most non - bank institutions increased leverage. Except for insurance, the leverage ratios of other institutions increased. Overnight funding prices slightly increased, and the 7 - day funding price decreased. Except for the last trading day, the funding feeling was loose [60][73]. 3.8. 8. Certificates of Deposit: The Net Financing of State - Owned Banks Turns Positive, and the Weighted Issuance Duration Increases - **Primary Market**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 15.099 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 18.6%. State - owned banks' net financing turned positive, while joint - stock banks' net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of certificates of deposit increased, and the proportion of long - term certificate of deposit issuance by banks increased [78][80][82]. - **Secondary Market**: After the month - end, the selling pressure of banks on certificates of deposit decreased. Before the bond - buying announcement, trading activity was high, and non - bank institutions were strong buyers. After the announcement, trading activity and non - bank buying power decreased. This week, the yield of certificates of deposit fluctuated downward, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield was 1.6300% [86][89].

Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have surprised many investors, with prices recently peaking near $4,400 before dropping to around $4,000, raising questions about whether to buy the dip or avoid becoming the last buyer [1] Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have shifted their strategies regarding gold, with some countries considering reducing their gold holdings while others, like South Korea, are looking to increase their reserves. India is also repatriating gold to its national treasury [3] - The total amount of gold held by global central banks now exceeds that of U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a declining confidence in the U.S. dollar [3] U.S. Economic Uncertainty - The return of Trump to the White House has created turmoil in the U.S. financial markets, with calls for the replacement of Federal Reserve Chair Powell and pressure for interest rate cuts, increasing uncertainty around fiscal and monetary policies [5] - This uncertainty raises concerns about the stability of the U.S. dollar, prompting global investors to be wary of holding dollars [5] Market Dynamics - The current market environment has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with more individuals purchasing gold bars and exploring gold-related investment channels. However, high gold prices have deterred many ordinary consumers, resulting in a decline in gold jewelry sales in the third quarter [7] - The dual role of gold as both an investment and a consumer good has created a complex market atmosphere, where demand for gold as a protective asset contrasts with reduced consumer purchases due to high prices [7] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts are divided on the future of gold prices, with some predicting further increases while others fear a significant drop. Historically, gold bull markets are often followed by deep corrections [9] - Despite differing opinions, many analysts agree that gold's status as a "safe haven" asset is unlikely to change in the near term [10] Investment Strategy - For ordinary investors, focusing solely on price fluctuations can lead to confusion. It is suggested to view gold as a stable asset for portfolio diversification rather than a quick profit opportunity [12] - Given the ongoing internal and global uncertainties, both central banks and individual investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach to risk management, recognizing gold's enduring significance in turbulent times [12]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggests that the rise of stablecoins may lower the U.S. neutral interest rate, known as "r-star," and advocates for interest rate cuts to avoid hindering economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The proliferation of stablecoins could lead to a decrease in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate by approximately 0.4 percentage points [1]. - Stablecoins are increasing the demand for U.S. Treasury securities and other dollar-denominated liquid assets, a trend expected to continue [1][2]. - Even conservative estimates of stablecoin growth indicate an increase in the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, which would further lower the neutral interest rate [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - Milan has consistently advocated for a series of rapid interest rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 50 basis points to align the policy rate closer to his estimate of the neutral rate [3]. - He believes the current neutral interest rate is significantly lower than most of his colleagues' estimates, indicating that the Federal Reserve's current policy stance is overly restrictive and burdensome for the economy [3]. - Milan cites various factors, including changes in immigration policy and tariffs, as additional evidence supporting his view that the neutral interest rate has declined [3].