极为鸽派的哈塞特此前一直被视为下一任美联储主席的主要竞争者之一。与此同时，利率期货市场也开 始小幅下调6月降息的可能性，若新任主席在鲍威尔任期结束后立即就任，6月将是其主持的首次政策会 议。 特朗普的反复表态也令其内部顾问团队难以判断最终走向。一名了解遴选过程的人士称，目前竞争仍主 要集中在沃什与哈塞特之间，而谁是领跑者"在某种程度上取决于当天的情况"。 在特朗普发表上述言论后，前美联储理事凯文·沃什迅速跃升为下一任美联储主席的最热门人选。根据 备受关注的预测市场数据，沃什已明显领跑其他竞争者。 1月17日，美国总统特朗普当地时间周五在白宫的一场活动中公开称赞其经济顾问凯文·哈塞特，并表 示，在考虑下一任美联储主席人选之际，他可能更倾向于让哈塞特继续担任现有职务(国家经济委员会 主任)。 特朗普在讲话中表示："我看到凯文就在观众席上，我只想对你表示感谢。你今天在电视上的表现非常 出色。说实话，如果你想知道我的真实想法，我其实希望你继续留在现在这个位置上。" 特朗普随后进一步解释称，若让哈塞特出任美联储主席，意味着其将脱离白宫决策与对外沟通体系，而 美联储官员受制度约束往往"少发声"。在特朗普看来，这将使白宫失 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 施诗 李依农 编辑丨曾静娇 周五（1月16日），欧美股指集体收跌，美股芯片股逆势爆发，中概股多数下跌 ，贵金属跳水，白银一 度失守87美元/盎司。 其中美股高开低走，三大指数全线收跌。本周三大股指均下跌，道指累计跌0.29%，标普500指数跌 0.38%，纳指跌0.66%。 欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌。本周，法国CAC40指数跌1.23%，英国富时100指数涨1.09%。 | 英国富时100 法国CAC40 德国DAX | | --- | | 10235.29 8258.94 25297.13 | | -3.65 -0.04% -54.18 -0.65% -55.26 -0.22% | | 意大利MIB 俄罗斯MOEX 欧洲STOXX50 | | 45799.69 2733.75 6029.45 | | -50.08 -0.11% +32.43 +1.20% -11.69 -0.19% | 黄金、白银盘中几度跳水，截至发稿，现货白银下挫2.7%，一度失守87美元/盎司，纽约期银跌2.6%。 基本金属方面，碳酸锂跌近9%，LME锡跌超4%。 国际油价上涨，WTI原油涨0.24%，ICE布油涨超0.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analyst Adam Button suggests that Bowman, despite her initial failure to secure the Federal Reserve chair position, continues to maintain her stance on "moderately restrictive" policies, which contrasts with the consensus of most Federal Reserve members who believe current policies are either neutral or very close to it [1] Group 1 - Bowman's perspective on "moderately restrictive" policies diverges from the majority view within the Federal Reserve [1] - The potential for close votes in future decisions may elevate the importance of Bowman's opinions over time [1] - If inflation rates rise again, Bowman could easily shift back to a more hawkish stance [1]

Market Overview - The market this week was influenced by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and concerns over the "independence of the Federal Reserve," impacting the dollar and interest rate expectations; and fluctuating geopolitical news related to Iran, leading to volatility in gold and oil prices [1] - The dollar index faced pressure early in the week due to political uncertainty but later strengthened supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for recent rate cuts, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [1] - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, but later entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4583 per ounce [1] - Silver saw a significant increase, peaking at nearly $93.70 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 30%, although it experienced extreme volatility [1] Non-U.S. Currencies - The "high market trading" led to the Japanese yen falling below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024; the euro and pound showed slight weakness while the Australian dollar remained relatively stable [2] - Oil prices were primarily driven by news related to Iran, initially rising due to concerns over internal unrest but later retracing gains as U.S. political statements eased tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Lloyds Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve might become a scapegoat for the weak U.S. job market; UBS indicated that concerns over the Fed's independence could lead to a more hawkish stance [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed would continue to make decisions based on data, unaffected by investigation pressures; Morgan Stanley stated that inflation remains above target, insufficient to support a rate cut in January [5] Major Events - Trump criticized Powell again, claiming he is either incompetent or corrupt, amidst a backdrop of a criminal investigation into Powell, which has drawn support for him from global central bank leaders [6] - The Senate Majority Leader questioned the investigation's legitimacy, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [7] - The December CPI data indicated a strong signal of cooling inflation, leading to increased market bets on early rate cuts, although Fed officials warned against premature easing [8] Corporate Developments - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [24] - Apple and Google reached a potential $5 billion AI partnership, opting for Google's Gemini model over OpenAI, impacting the competitive landscape in AI technology [26] - Tesla announced a shift from a one-time purchase model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature to a subscription model, aiming to create a more stable revenue stream and lower entry barriers for consumers [28]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Derek Halpenny from MUFG indicates that prior to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on January 23, Japanese authorities may be hesitant to follow through on their threats to intervene in the yen's depreciation [1] Group 1: Bank of Japan's Stance - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is likely to maintain a cautious stance regarding further interest rate hikes [1] - This cautious approach could be a factor that leads to the potential failure of intervention measures aimed at supporting the yen [1] Group 2: External Influences - Other influencing factors include Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's plans for an early election and indications from Federal Reserve officials suggesting a pause in interest rate cuts [1] - A more explicit opposition to yen depreciation from the Bank of Japan, along with hints of earlier interest rate hikes, could enhance the success of intervention measures [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - The dollar fell by 0.3% to 158.10 yen [1]

据新华社消息，据新西兰媒体报道，新西兰外交部发言人16日表示，已暂时关闭该国驻伊朗大使馆并撤 离外交人员。 百万用户都在看 上交所出手，暂停国晟科技部分投资者账户交易！浙江证监局也有动作 李湘，突发！多平台被禁止关注，1分钟广告报价达30万！名下14家公司已注销 热门资产，直线跳水！高盛，突然空袭！ "降息大门关闭！"美联储，预期突变！美国重磅数据出炉！ 局势升级！俄罗斯，大规模袭击！发射7枚巡航导弹！英国，重大宣布！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 来源：新华社 券中社 × 券商中国 券 中 社 扫码下载券中社APP 扫码关注券商中国公众号 quanshangcn qzs.stcn.com 舞中 券中社APP 券 商 中 国 是 证 券 市 场 权 威 媒 体 《 证 券 时 报 》 旗 下 新 媒 体 , 券 商 中 国 对 该 平 台 所 刊 载 的 原 创 内 容 享 有 著 作 权 , 未 经 授 权 禁 止 转 载 ， 否 则 将 追 究 相 应 法 律 责 任 。 看券商中国 知天下财经 F 责编：刘珺宇 校对：廖胜超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in deposits in non-bank financial institutions, with a rise of 6.41 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a 147% increase compared to the previous year, while household deposits grew by only 3% to 14.64 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" [2] - Non-bank financial institutions include broker margin accounts, bank wealth management, public funds, finance companies, and insurance, suggesting that the influx of deposits is likely being directed towards stock markets, bond markets, and insurance products [2] - The article notes that when the A-share market performs well, non-bank deposits tend to increase significantly, as seen in 2015 and 2021, which correlates with increased trading volumes in the A-share market [2] Group 2 - Recent favorable developments for the A-share market include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates by the central bank, lowering the one-year re-lending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [5] - The central bank has also decided to increase the quota for re-lending aimed at technological innovation and transformation by 400 billion yuan, bringing the total to 1.2 trillion yuan [6] - This targeted interest rate reduction is expected to lower borrowing costs for commercial banks, potentially leading to lower loan rates for customers, particularly benefiting sectors like technology, consumption, and elderly care [7] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year, which is widely anticipated by the market, alongside expectations of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to be range - bound and may show stronger characteristics. The current economic situation shows that the economic expectation gap is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is neutral. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may test the 6.90 - 6.95 range. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the Put - side volatility slightly decreasing [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The value of the counter - cyclical factor has shifted downwards, and the negative adjustment signal has strengthened. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro 3.2.1.1 Interest Rate and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on January 7 was 783.5 billion (- 89.2 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion (- 65.6 billion) [16]. 3.2.1.2 US Economic Data - Employment authority has declined, non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and inflation in November was lower than expected, supporting subsequent interest rate cuts. Economic expectations have been revised upwards, with a slight decline in PMI and a slight increase in real estate sales in November [18]. 3.2.1.3 Fed Chair Candidates - Trump has no plan to replace Powell for now and is open to the choice of the next Fed chair. Different candidates have different views on interest rate policies, such as Christopher Waller advocating for a cautious interest rate cut, Kevin Warsh calling for a large - scale balance sheet reduction to create room for rate cuts [19][20]. 3.2.1.4 Inflation - The CPI performance in the US in December was moderate, with a slight increase in the contribution of food and core commodities, a decline in the contribution of crude oil, and a decline in the contribution of core services. The pricing of interest rate cuts changed little after the data release [21]. 3.2.1.5 Non - farm Payrolls - In December, non - farm payrolls showed a K - shaped divergence. Employment in trade, transportation, construction, and manufacturing decreased, while employment in services, education, and healthcare continued to increase, and government employment also increased. The unemployment rate was affected by different factors, and the employment environment was deteriorating [24]. 3.2.1.6 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but fixed - asset investment faced pressure and consumption slowed down. Against the background of increasing pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [25]. 3.2.1.7 December Exports - The characteristics of re - exports continued. Exports to the US and Canada decreased, while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa increased. Items such as automobiles, mechanical and electrical products, integrated circuits, and high - tech products showed obvious resilience, as did exports of raw materials such as aluminum and steel [27]. 3.2.2 2026 Monetary Policy - The policy focuses on reducing the re - lending rate by 25BP, setting up a 1 - trillion RMB re - loan for private enterprises, adding 400 billion RMB in technological transformation quotas, and reducing inventory of commercial real estate. The policy features "moderate in aggregate and precise in structure", and the RMB exchange rate maintains strong resilience supported by high - level foreign exchange reserves and stable settlement - sales surpluses [30]. 3.3 Core Content Interpretation 3.3.1 Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In December 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement was significantly higher than its sale. The annual pattern was a net settlement. The settlement rate of received foreign exchange rose to 61.01%, and the purchase rate of paid - out foreign exchange fell to 55.41% [35][36]. - In December 2025, the bank's agent for overseas receipts was higher than payments, showing a surplus. The annual situation was a net inflow. In the current account, the contribution of goods trade was significant, increasing from about 726.66 billion in November to about 1259.22 billion in December, strongly driving the surplus in receipts and payments [43]. 3.3.2 Overall View - The RMB is expected to be range - bound against the US dollar. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may show stronger characteristics, and there is a possibility of testing the 6.90 - 6.95 range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3.3.3 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there will be important events such as Fed chair candidate announcements, FOMC meetings, government work reports, and national two - sessions. These events will affect policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, as well as lead to tariff games and changes in the Fed's stance [50].

在连续两日回调后，华尔街主要股指周四集体收高。芯片制造商台积电公布强劲财报，提振半导体板块 整体走强；与此同时，摩根士丹利和高盛业绩超出市场预期，推动金融股回暖。能源板块则在国际油价 大幅回落的拖累下走弱。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨292.81点，涨幅0.60%，报49442.44点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨58.27 点，涨幅0.25%，报23530.02点；标普500指数上涨17.87点，涨幅0.26%，报6944.47点。 热门股表现 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨2.13%，亚马逊涨0.62%，Meta涨0.86%，谷歌A跌0.91%，苹果跌 0.69%，特斯拉跌0.13%，微软跌0.59%。 台积电股价收涨4.5%，此前公司公布再度刷新纪录的季度业绩，利润同比增长35%。该财报重新点燃了 市场对人工智能相关需求韧性的信心。 受此带动，费城半导体指数上涨1.76%，并创下收盘纪录。盘中该指数一度大涨近4%，但在尾盘有所回 吐，科技板块和纳指的涨幅亦相应收窄。 金融板块成为当日另一大支撑力量，摩根士丹利和高盛披露利好业绩，股价分别大涨5.8%和4.6%，双 双创下收盘新高。 高盛披露，第四季度净利润为46 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Major stock indices on Wall Street rose collectively after two days of decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 292.81 points, or 0.60%, closing at 49,442.44 points; the Nasdaq Composite increased by 58.27 points, or 0.25%, to 23,530.02 points; and the S&P 500 gained 17.87 points, or 0.26%, ending at 6,944.47 points [1] - The semiconductor sector strengthened significantly due to TSMC's strong earnings report, which reignited confidence in AI-related demand [2] - Financial stocks rebounded as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected earnings, with Morgan Stanley's stock rising by 5.8% and Goldman Sachs by 4.6%, both reaching new closing highs [2] Group 2: Company Performance - TSMC's stock rose by 4.5% after reporting record quarterly earnings, with profits increasing by 35% year-over-year, boosting market confidence in AI demand [2] - Goldman Sachs reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $4.6 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $14.01, a 12% year-over-year increase; Morgan Stanley's net profit grew by 18% to $4.4 billion, driven by a 47% surge in trading revenue [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.76%, reaching a record close, with intraday gains nearing 4% before tapering off [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a resilient labor market [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.6 basis points to 4.156%, while the 2-year yield increased by 4.4 basis points to 3.558%, with market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve remaining stable at about 5% [6]