Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.04%, with the latest price at 106.15 yuan, and its scale reached a new high of 21.706 billion yuan [1] - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 16 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 6.137 billion yuan, averaging 384 million yuan per day [1] Group 2 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) rose by 0.01%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 117.58 yuan and a net value increase of 20.50% over the past five years [4] - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years reached a new scale high of 1.464 billion yuan [4] - The national development bond ETF (159651) also increased by 0.01%, achieving a latest price of 106.23 yuan [4] Group 3 - The bond market is currently experiencing weak performance, primarily due to interest rates nearing critical levels, with market sentiment and technical indicators not supporting further movements in interest rates or national debt futures [4] - The outlook for the bond market remains optimistic regarding liquidity, with a necessary focus on bank liabilities in the context of potential interest rate cuts [4] - The credit bond market continues to favor duration strategies, although the current term spread is relatively low, requiring short-term rates to follow liquidity rates down for further compression of long-term bond spreads [4] Group 4 - The three main members of the Ping An Fund bond ETF include the company bond ETF (511030), the national development bond ETF (159651), and the national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various types of bonds and durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [5]

Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 525.9 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 364.7 billion yuan after accounting for 161.2 billion yuan maturing on the same day [1][3] Market Liquidity - The central bank's significant net injection has led to a slight decline in the overnight pledged repo rate for deposit-taking institutions, currently around 1.36% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.36% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.65%, showing little change from the previous day [6] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.17%, 10-year by 0.09%, 5-year by 0.1%, and 2-year by 0.03% [10] International Relations - Chinese leadership emphasized the importance of mutual support in development paths during a meeting with the Senegalese Prime Minister, aiming to strengthen political trust and cultural exchanges [11] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed hope for improved U.S.-China trade relations following discussions on the London framework, aiming for a stable and sustainable economic relationship [11] U.S. Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed a procedural vote in the U.S. Senate, which could significantly impact U.S. capital markets and investor sentiment if implemented [13] - President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the probability of a rate cut in July remains around 20% [13] Bond Market Updates - The Shanghai Stock Exchange plans to release a series of indices for subdivided credit ratings of convertible and exchangeable bonds [15] - The scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 360 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in a declining interest rate environment [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the funding situation continued to tighten near the half - year mark, and MLF was scaled back. The bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, and both the term spread and the variety spread remained flat [1][9][36] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. Considering that the funding rate will decline again after the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but the term spread protection is limited [2][10] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The bond market is more likely to rise after the half - year mark, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, due to the Israel - Iran cease - fire, tightened funding near the half - year mark, and MLF scaling back, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Trading activity increased significantly, and both term and variety spreads remained flat [1][9][36] 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of June 27, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May GDP growth rate was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still higher than the annual target. May CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but term spread protection is limited [2][10] 20 - year CDB Bond - As of June 27, the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond spread was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Economic data shows similar characteristics as the 30 - year treasury bond situation. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but variety spread protection is limited [3][11] 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of May 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 21.6823 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [12] 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 389.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [17] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 33.6 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [21] 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 1.3892 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.2% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [23] Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term and different - variety ultra - long bonds changed to varying degrees [36] Spread Analysis - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP. The variety spread also remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond spread was 4BP, and the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond spread was 9BP [42][43] 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.89 yuan, a decline of 0.35%. Trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and open interest increased slightly [50]

// 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.65% 附近，较上日变化不大。 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 6 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 5093 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 5093 亿元，中标量 5093 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2035 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 3058 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行加力，资金面整体变化不大，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微幅下行，仍位于 1.37% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.3% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 6. 国债期货收盘 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 30 年期主力合约涨 0.1% 10 年期主力合约跌 0.02% 5 年期主力合约持平 // 全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant liquidity injection through a 300 billion MLF operation, indicating a supportive stance towards the market while avoiding excessive monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 300 billion MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the fourth consecutive month of excess MLF renewals since March [1]. - The net injection for June has reached 318 billion, reflecting the central bank's intention to provide liquidity support during a traditionally tight period [1]. - The MLF net injection scale is decreasing, suggesting a cautious approach by the PBOC to avoid overly loose monetary conditions while allowing for potential future bond purchases [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - The recent liquidity measures are expected to support the bond market, alleviating short-term pressures from government bond issuances and maturing interbank certificates [2]. - The bond market has shown a "bull steepening" trend, with short-term rates declining more rapidly due to increased purchases of short-term government bonds by major banks [2]. - The overall positive trend in the bond market is expected to continue, driven by weak economic fundamentals, reinforced policy easing expectations, and sustained liquidity support [2].

Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has increased by 0.02%, with the latest price at 106.08 yuan, and its scale has reached a new high of 20.869 billion yuan [1] - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 13 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 5.3 billion yuan, averaging 408 million yuan per day [1] Group 2 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has risen by 0.01%, with the latest price at 117.56 yuan, and its scale is now 1.432 billion yuan [4] - The national development bond ETF (159651) is currently in a stalemate, priced at 106.18 yuan, with a scale of 1.003 billion yuan [4] - The central bank has conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan this month [4] - In June, the government bond net issuance has reached 1.2 trillion yuan, with significant participation from major banks in the primary bidding [4] Group 3 - The recent stock market has performed well, with the A-share index reaching a year-to-date high, and banks listed in both A and H shares hitting new highs [5] - The company continues to favor long-term city investment bonds and bank capital bonds with yields above 2%, while also focusing on the central bank's liquidity behavior [5] - The bond ETF trio from Ping An Fund includes the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [5]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 121.290, and the 10-year main contract down 0.01% at 109.155 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.8380%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.15 basis points to 1.7070% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 220.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [2] - The overall funding situation is relatively loose, with overnight pledged repo rates slightly declining but remaining around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate increased by over 1 basis point [2] News Developments - Recent reports indicate that the scope of special bonds is expanding, with new uses including investment in government investment funds [3] - The new special bond issuance is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, focusing on land acquisition and settling local government debts [3] Operational Suggestions - Recent high-frequency data shows signs of weakening in exports, while the central bank's signals of support and declining funding rates are favorable for the bond market [4] - The overall bond rates are expected to maintain a downward trend, with a potential breakthrough at the 1.6% level for the 10-year government bond yield if the central bank resumes bond purchases [4]

日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 行业 国债日报 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.340 | 121.500 | 121.290 | 121.260 | -0.050 | -0.04 ...

Group 1 - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets has exceeded 500 billion, with an estimated total trading amount of approximately 1.1 trillion for the day [1] - The bond futures market is mostly flat, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.13%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts remain flat [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) opened high but fluctuated downwards during the day, increasing by 4 basis points with a turnover rate exceeding 12% and a trading volume close to 1 billion [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation of a second interest rate cut this year, with rates likely to fluctuate downwards before the cut, suggesting a strategy of increasing bond allocation during rate hikes [2] - The Bosera 30-year government bond ETF (511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [2]

Market Overview - The bond market is currently in a "full bow" state, with the median duration of interest rate bond funds reaching a historical high of 5.25 years as of June 20, 2025[1] - The leverage ratio for non-bank financial institutions is approximately 113.9%, up from a low of 113.5% in mid-February 2025, but still below the historical peak of 118.5%[1] Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between new and old bonds has been fully explored, with the yield on long-term active bonds declining by about 5 basis points, while older bonds have seen declines of 8-9 basis points[2] - The yield spread between 10-year national development bonds and national treasury bonds has narrowed from a high of 7.2 basis points to the current 3.7 basis points[2] Market Dynamics - The bond market has been characterized by a lack of clear direction, with 12 historical rounds of yield spread compression analyzed, showing that 8 rounds occurred in uncertain market conditions[3] - The compression of yield spreads is often concluded by clear market signals such as interest rate cuts or significant supply increases, which could lead to a re-expansion of spreads[3] Future Outlook - The process of compressing yield spreads may continue until the central bank initiates bond purchases or provides stronger signals, such as allowing treasury bonds to meet reserve requirements[4] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility following the implementation of new monetary policies, particularly around natural easing points like the beginning of a quarter[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]