Core Viewpoint - June is identified as a critical transitional period for the bond market, with a focus on the downward trend of general interest rates leading to stronger bond market rates, and the increasing certainty of looser funding around the quarter-end [1][4][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early May, the bond market has entered a transitional phase under funding constraints, with a gradual compression of spreads [1]. - The credit spread, particularly at the short end, has compressed to historical lows, while the spread between government bonds and policy bank bonds turned negative in late May [1][4]. - The spread between active and less active 10-year government bonds has narrowed significantly, indicating a clear trend of spread compression in the market [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on 10-year and 30-year non-active government bonds, including new and old special government bonds, as well as 10-year local government bonds, which offer both liquidity and static returns [1]. - For credit bonds, attention should be given to high-rated (AAA) credit bonds with a maturity of over five years that possess certain liquidity [1]. - Credit bond ETFs that are eligible for general pledged repos are also suggested for consideration [1]. Group 3: Strategic Transition - The bond market is expected to transition from a pure coupon strategy to a strategy that balances coupon and liquidity [1][11]. - The next phase of spread compression may lead to either a bear market driven by macro policy shifts or a rapid rise in bond prices if government bond rates decline sharply [11]. - The recommendation is to prepare for a shift to more liquid instruments in anticipation of the next round of interest rate declines, considering the uncertainty of funding fluctuations at the end of June [11].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering the need for caution in reducing government bond purchases if liquidity in the bond market significantly declines within a specific time frame, particularly in the ultra-long-term segment [1]

> 特朗普一句"50%关税"，全球债市应声起舞 | 3年 | 1.520 | 3.987 | -247bp | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5年 | 1.650 | 4.090 | -244bp | | 7年 | 1.640 | 4.293 | -265bp | | 10年 | 1.710 | 4.504 | -279bp | | 30年 | 1.920 | 4.989 | -307bp | 贸易战引爆债市 避险与分化成主线 收益率曲线"熊平"：短端通胀恐慌，长端增长悲观 5月23日特朗普威胁对欧盟加征50%关税后，德国债市率先拉响警报： 德国国债收益率曲线一夜变形，避险资金疯狂涌入黄金，而一场跨大西洋的贸易风暴正重塑 金融市场的逻辑链条。 -短端利率跳升：两年期德债收益率逆势上涨1.8个基点至1.782%，反映市场对输入性通胀 的担忧； -长端利率暴跌：三十年期收益率下跌2.3个基点至3.065%，预示经济衰退风险激增。 这种罕见的分化被德意志银行称为"政策不确定性的直接产物"，瑞银更警告若关税落地， 德债收益率或再跳升10-15个基点。 黄金与美元：避险情绪的"双面镜" - 黄 ...

在提速构建的债券市场"科技板"中，险资作为买债大户已积极参与投资。 另据金融时报报道，中国人保介绍，在科创债新规后发行首日，人保集团参与了6家首发券商、3家银行科技创 新债的申购，合计申购金额超过50亿元。 未来风险定价体系或重塑 从实操而言，险资配债对安全性要求较高，对科创债的投资如何兼顾收益性和安全性？ 5月7日科创债新规以来，在银行、券商等新增发行人积极发行科技创新债的同时，已有多家险资公开表示投资 了科创债。 科创债与险资的适配性如何？如何展望科创债市场投资趋势？券商中国记者采访了险资机构。 多家险资积极参与 5月7日，中国人民银行、中国证监会联合发布《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告》，从丰富科技创 新债券产品体系和完善科技创新债券配套支持机制等方面，对支持科技创新债券发行提出多项重要举措。同 时，沪深北三大交易所、交易商协会发文，进一步提出细化支持措施。 《公告》对支持科技创新债券发行提出若干举措。包括支持金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权投资机构和创业 投资机构发行科技创新债券。同时，发行人可灵活设置债券条款，鼓励发行长期限债券，更好匹配科技创新领 域资金使用特点和需求。为科技创新债券融资提供 ...

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns of impending "cracks" in the bond market, suggesting that financial regulators may panic when it occurs [1] - Dimon criticizes the current financial regulatory framework, highlighting "deep flaws" in existing rules, especially after the bond market's turmoil in April [1] - Proposed adjustments to the supplementary leverage ratio could stabilize the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, according to Dimon [1] Group 2 - As of Friday, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.418% and 4.931%, respectively, marking a 25 basis point increase in May, the largest monthly rise this year [2] - Not all industry experts share Dimon's concerns; Tom di Galoma from Mischler Financial Group believes the bond market has already "broken" since April but notes recent successful auctions indicate a return to calm [2] - Treasury Secretary Yellen is working to lower the 10-year Treasury yield to stimulate the housing market and ease credit tightening, collaborating with regulators on potential reforms [2] Group 3 - Risks persist in the market, including proposed large-scale tax and spending bills by Republicans that could increase federal deficits and bond issuance, raising interest rates [3] - Uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and legal issues may decrease foreign investment interest in U.S. assets [3] - Despite warnings, Dimon remains optimistic about overcoming challenges, with JPMorgan's stock down 0.1% but up 10.1% year-to-date [3]

5月29日，债市出现调整，银行间主要现券收益率上行1~2bp，国债期货全线下跌，但央行继续净投放 OMO，资金面保持均衡偏宽松状态。据央视新闻报道，美国国际贸易法院叫停美国总统特朗普的"解放 日"关税，并裁定特朗普越权，受此影响风险偏好大幅抬升，股强债弱。短期来看，月末资金面预计保 持偏宽松状态，美国关税缓和对风险偏好的提振预计仍会持续并压制债市，关注今日公告的5月央行买 断式逆回购和买卖国债情况以及即将公布的5月制造业PMI数据，债市预计维持震荡状态。 经过本周的债市调整，收益率性价比已经较高，市场对于关税缓和的定价也较为充分，目前收益率处于 较好的配置区间，后续有望逐步下行。 今日恰逢端午假期前最后一个交易日，场内往往交易活跃，可关注场内折溢价机会和假日票息收益。 政金债券ETF（511520）昨日净流入超5亿元，总规模超478亿元，为全市场规模最大的债券ETF，同时 也是全市场唯一一只长久期政金债ETF，久期7.5年左右，流动性好，适合客户场内一键加久期，可作 为债券市场波段交易和配置的好工具。 相关产品：政金债券ETF（511520）、富国中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF联接（A类：018266；C类 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in the bond market following the LPR reduction on May 20, 2025, with a notable increase in the issuance of special government bonds [1] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 4.2 basis points to 1.72% compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery in the yield curve [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 8.0 basis points to 4.51%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy due to the Trump tax cuts, which widened the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The R007 and DR007 interbank liquidity rates increased by 4.6 basis points and 4.4 basis points respectively, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions [1] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) tracks the 10-year government bond index (H11077), which includes publicly issued and listed government bonds with a maturity of 6.5 to 10 years, serving as a benchmark for long-term government bond market performance [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250529 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.58%、上证综指环比上涨 0.70%、深证成 指环比上涨 1.24%、创业板指环比上涨 1.37%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.29%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 1.76%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.62%、大盘价值环比下降 0.03%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.48%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.62%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.53%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.84%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 571.54 亿元，环比 增长 12.24%；万得全 A 总成交额为 12134.10 亿元，环比增长 17.37%；沪深 两市主力净流入 74.33 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.45bp 至 1.69%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.69 元，环比昨日上升 0.59%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.71 元，环比 上升 0.07%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 11 ...

从"故事"回归经济和降息视角：对比存款利率，长期中债市并未过度定价。 融资、通胀的修复相对"滞 后"。回顾 2022 年以来的广谱利率走势，以贷款利率为锚来看，当前债市利率下行步伐是合理的。当前 债市进入平台期的主要原因是：资金短摩擦，海内外因素导致国内长期低利率"故事" 持续性存疑。 双降的长短期影响：货币政策的再置换，回归"正常"的资金。 降准资金落地后，资金反而边际收紧，其 背后的直接原因或是货币政策投放节点变化所造成的波动。在 2024 年之前存款利率对资金出表的扰动并 不明显，在 2024 年之后扰动有所显现。资金短摩擦或于二季度末结束。 走楼梯之后策略轮动再起：短期票息策略占优， Q3 或有拉久期空间。 国内对长期中利率反弹风险的认知 上升抑制债市"抢跑"。短期内票息策略的性价比较高，建议维持久期但不追涨长利率债，关注曲线上的凸 点区域债种（流动性风险减低）。 Q3 建议以贷款利率为锚，降息可能都将进一步驱动利率下行。 低利率环境下的降本增利：新策略和新资产。 资产关注科创债、 REITs 等扩容。策略关注债基 ETF 的扩 容与轮动，债市量化策略的兴起。 风险提示。 基本面超预期变化、外部环境不 ...

金融研究 2025年5月29日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 28 日，A 股四大股指回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.02%，报收 3339.93 点；深成指下 跌 0.26%，报收 10003.27 点；创业板指下跌 0.31%，报收 1985.38 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.23%， 报收 970.64 点。市场成交 10,339 亿元，较前日增加 98 亿元。行业板块方面，纺织服饰(+1.17%)， 环保(+0.89%)，煤炭(+0.74%)涨幅居前；基础化工(-0.79%)，农林牧渔(-0.78%)，国防军工(-0.72%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,750/181/3,477。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-58、-128、21、165 亿元，分别变动-29、-10、+25、+14 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 175.26、143.04、70.04 与 48.06 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-19.79%、-17.14%、-12.34%与-12.1%，三年期历 ...