1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report did not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations has pushed oil prices down, and the chemical industry is actively resisting low profits and prices. The global chemical industry's capacity reduction continues, and the short - term energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, with short - term profit - taking on short positions as the main strategy [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Energy and Chemicals**: The overall energy and chemical sector is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to take short - term profit on short positions [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market. Pay attention to the support at the previous low. - **Main Logic**: API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week, while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The market is in a state of expected supply surplus, and the support at the previous low may come from the short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela [6]. - **Outlook**: The expected supply surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations may fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the short - term support at the annual low. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is weak, and the asphalt futures price has fallen below the 2900 support level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, leading to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt futures price has fallen below an important support level. The pricing of futures has returned to Shandong's spot price, and the high valuation of asphalt is being revised down. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still high [7]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, showing a downward trend. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists. The decline in oil prices has led to a fall in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three major driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [7]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, showing a downward trend. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply pressure of domestic refined oil is increasing, and the supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil are facing a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates with crude oil. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price trend, while its strong fundamentals support firm profits. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have continued to adjust downward. The positive signal from the Russia - Ukraine peace process has led to a decline in Brent oil prices. Under the support of PTA and polyester demand, the decline in PX prices is limited, but in the short term, it is greatly affected by cost and lacks new positive drivers [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it fluctuates and consolidates under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. It is expected that PXN will consolidate in the range of [260, 300]. The positive spread logic is maintained. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains firm. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating and falling, and the cost support has collapsed. PX's good supply - demand expectations prevent the cost decline from being overly transmitted to downstream products. The short - term supply and demand of PTA are stable, and the basis is relatively strong. The price follows the upstream cost and oscillates weakly [10]. - **Outlook**: The price oscillates and consolidates with the cost, and the processing fee maintains a certain range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract in the range of 4600 - 4700 on dips. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: There are differences in expectations, and pure benzene oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Pure benzene is currently in a state of weak reality and divergent expectations. The recent trading on the disk focuses on the far - month device maintenance and storage pressure. The market has large differences in the balance forecast for Q1 2026, mainly due to different estimates of imports and the return of downstream devices. The chemical market atmosphere is pessimistic [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and styrene oscillates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the support from crude oil and the cost side has been insufficient, dragging down the styrene price. The supply - demand of styrene is in a tight - balance state, providing support for the price, but there is insufficient upward driving force. In December, there is an expectation of further inventory reduction, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upward space. From January, the seasonal inventory accumulation will start [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Device disruptions increase, further consolidating price support, but there is still a lack of medium - term drivers. - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded. The previous price adjustment was sufficient, and the low price has led to production cuts on the supply side. The arrival volume of foreign ships is moderate, and the inventory accumulation rate at ports has slowed down. In the short term, the price is expected to remain low, but in the long - term, the inventory accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [14][15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price may bottom out under industry resistance, and in the long term, the inventory accumulation pressure is still large, with limited rebound height and wide - range low - level oscillation. 3.2.10 Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The cost trend is divergent, and the demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost shows a divergent trend. PTA is affected by international oil prices and oscillates weakly, while ethylene glycol rebounds. The price of polyester staple fiber is relatively resistant to decline, but the demand is weak, and there is no upward driving force in the off - season [19][20]. - **Outlook**: The price of staple fiber oscillates with the upstream, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced. The long - TA and short - PF positions should take profit and exit. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: The trend of upstream polyester raw materials is divergent. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials show a divergent trend. PTA is weakly oscillating, and ethylene glycol is rising. The price of polyester bottle chips is narrowly consolidating, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable [21]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee below is enhanced. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The unloading at coastal areas is lower than expected, and the supply and demand in the inland support methanol to oscillate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol market oscillates and consolidates. The supply in the inland market is abundant, and enterprises reduce prices to sell goods. The port inventory is being digested, and the inventory in the inland is low, supporting the price. The overall pattern in coastal areas is weaker than that in the inland [23]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation and consolidation. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The demand support is insufficient, and the disk oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Although the supply of urea has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. The demand support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export has weakened, and the environmental protection warning and production restrictions in the mainstream areas may reduce the short - term industrial demand [24]. - **Outlook**: The market lacks effective positive support, and the price may decline slightly. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the start - up of compound fertilizer factories. 3.2.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: Oil prices are weak, and the support from maintenance is limited. Plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The plastic futures price oscillates. It is mainly driven by PP recently. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The fundamental support of plastic itself is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [27]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the maintenance expectation, PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The PDH profit is temporarily under pressure. Oil prices are oscillating and weakening, and the geopolitical premium is fluctuating. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is still large, and the inventory is relatively high [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the PDH maintenance expectation supports PL to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still has a boosting effect. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream buying is cautious. The short - term powder profit is under pressure, and the start - up decline has a dragging effect [29]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The exit of overseas devices boosts PVC sentiment. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect on low - valuation varieties. Microscopically, the exit of a 450,000 - ton PVC production capacity of a US company boosts market sentiment, but the domestic over - supply expectation still exists [30]. - **Outlook**: The exit of overseas devices improves market sentiment, but the rebound space of PVC is limited, and the pressure lies in profit repair and the resumption of domestic marginal production capacity. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda may oscillate. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" sentiment may have a short - term boosting effect. Microscopically, the decline in liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and there is an expectation of production cuts, but it has not been implemented yet. The fundamentals are under pressure [33]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor. The disk should be observed, and the downward space is limited. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Presents the latest values and change values of inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [38]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical varieties, including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Business Development - The company’s pharmaceutical business is rapidly developing, focusing on a large customer strategy primarily through the CDMO model, with ongoing efforts to attract strategic and high-viscosity clients [1] - The pharmaceutical division has established stable commercial relationships with several high-quality domestic and international clients, with an expanding scope of cooperation [1] - The company plans to continue growing its mature businesses, including small molecule CDMO, starting materials, and GMP intermediates, while also investing in emerging businesses such as peptide CDMO and radioactive drug-related CDMO [2] Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical issues have a limited direct impact on the company’s business but do affect client supply chain decisions [3] - The company views geopolitical challenges as an opportunity to enhance its global service capabilities by establishing overseas bases in the UK and Malaysia, creating a "multi-site supply, flexible delivery" solution [3] Group 3: Patent Expiry and Market Strategy - The expiry of certain agricultural product patents has a limited overall impact on the company, supported by its large customer strategy and CDMO model [4] - Long-term framework agreements with core clients ensure stability in supply, even for products whose patents have expired [4] - The company is optimizing production and reducing costs to enhance market competitiveness while focusing on new patented products through initiatives like the Malaysian base [4] Group 4: New Energy Business Outlook - The company currently focuses on sales of LiFSI and electrolyte products, with ongoing technical improvements on lithium hexafluorophosphate projects [5] - The new energy business is expected to achieve significant revenue breakthroughs in 2025 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI-related momentum is expected to be maintained in the coming year, with optimism in the information and communication technology industry, despite challenges such as geopolitical issues [1] - The chairman of AUO, Peng Shuanglang, mentioned that the semiconductor and server sectors are benefiting from the AI wave, and the trend of AI development is anticipated to continue [1] - There is a concern regarding the impact of rising memory prices on end product sales, with close monitoring of price increases to see if they remain within consumer acceptance [1] Group 2 - The Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers' Association is considering forming an industrial cluster in the U.S., similar to the Hsinchu Science Park, to enhance overseas collaboration [2] - Companies in Taiwan are encouraged to expand internationally to create a clustering effect, although discussions are still in the early stages [2] - The trend of companies establishing a presence in Southeast Asia is expected to continue, with other regions gradually mimicking this model to form new economic patterns [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the PX market showed characteristics of "low at first, then stable, and supply-demand tightening". The price was affected by multiple factors in the first half and returned to a strong fundamental in the second half. The market shifted from high inventory to a tight balance, supporting price rebound [1][147]. - The pure benzene market in 2025 presented a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and profit pressure". The price of the newly - listed futures first rose and then fell, with a significant downward shift in the price center at home and abroad [1][148]. - The styrene market in 2025 was significantly influenced by cost - side price decline and macro - policies. The basis widened in the second quarter and then converged, and the industry profit was generally poor [2][149]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX 2025 Market Review - **PX Main Contract Situation**: The PX futures market in 2025 had four stages. The price fluctuated and declined in the first quarter, dropped sharply due to tariff policies in the second quarter, continued to fluctuate in summer, and rebounded at the end of the year. The basis showed different trends in different periods [9]. - **PX Spot Price and Operation Situation**: The PX spot price also had four stages. It was low and fluctuating in the first quarter, dropped sharply and then rebounded in the second quarter, fluctuated in the third quarter, and rose in the fourth quarter. The domestic PX operation rate decreased in the first half and increased in the second half [12]. - **PX Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The annual PX import volume was about 9.84 million tons, similar to 2024. The estimated annual output was about 37.908 million tons, and the import dependence was below 20%. The downstream demand was about 48.305 million tons, an increase from 2024. The social inventory decreased continuously to 2.155 million tons at the end of the year [23][26]. - **PX 2026 Planned Production Situation**: In 2026, there are plans to put into production 3.5 million tons of PX. The overall supply - demand pattern will continue to be tight, supporting the price [39]. 3.2 Processing Margin Situation - The cracking spread in 2025 showed a pattern of "low at first, then stable". The BZ - N processing margin was continuously compressed, the PX - N spread fluctuated between $200 - 300 per ton, and the PX - MX spread was above $100 per ton in the fourth quarter [44][46]. 3.3 Pure Benzene 2025 Market Review - **Pure Benzene Main Contract Situation**: The pure benzene futures first rose and then fell after listing in July 2025. The price was under pressure due to weak supply - demand on the spot side, high port inventory, and other factors [56]. - **Pure Benzene Spot Price Situation at Home and Abroad**: The prices in Asia, America, and Europe dropped significantly in 2025. The Asian market was affected by US tariff policies, and the domestic East China spot price also declined continuously [61]. - **Pure Benzene Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The total domestic pure benzene production capacity reached 27.716 million tons in 2025, and the total output was estimated to be 26.4308 million tons. The demand was estimated to be 31.1864 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.6%. The inventory situation was relatively complex, and the overall supply was loose [66]. - **Pure Benzene Operation Profit and 2026 Planned Production Situation**: The profit level and operation rate of the domestic pure benzene industry weakened in 2025. In 2026, it is expected that there will be 2.208 million tons of new production capacity, which will intensify the supply - surplus pressure [75][78]. 3.4 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil Situation - In 2025, the disproportionation and blending - for - oil profits of the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain were poor. The blending - for - oil spread was "not prosperous in the peak season" in summer and rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter. The toluene disproportionation was in a loss state [85]. 3.5 Styrene 2025 Market Review - **Styrene Main Contract Situation**: The styrene futures market in 2025 had four stages. The price fluctuated and declined in the first stage, rose and then fell in the second stage, entered a weak period in summer, and showed a weak - to - strong trend in the fourth quarter. The basis widened in the second quarter and then converged [100]. - **Raw Material Ethylene and Styrene Spot Price Situation**: The ethylene price weakened in 2025, and it was difficult to provide strong support for styrene. The styrene international market price was high at first and then low, and the overall center of gravity moved down [106][112]. - **Styrene Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The domestic styrene supply changed from "both supply and demand increasing" to a tight balance in the first half, then to a loose balance in the third quarter, and finally to a supply - less - than - demand situation at the end of the year. The port inventory showed an "M" - shaped fluctuation [117][124]. - **Styrene 2026 Planned Production Situation**: In 2025, the domestic styrene total production capacity increased to 23.577 million tons, and the output was estimated to be 17.904 million tons. In 2026, there are still plans for new production capacity [132]. 3.6 Main Downstream Operation Situation of Styrene - The prices of the three major downstream products (PS, ABS, EPS) of styrene declined significantly in 2025. The profits were in theoretical losses at some stages, and the operation rates showed a step - by - step decline. The overall terminal demand was weak [136]. 3.7 Summary and 2026 Outlook - **PX Outlook**: In 2026, the cost side may oscillate at a low level in the first half of the year, and the PX market may rebound during the maintenance season in the second quarter. It is still a variety with relatively strong supply - demand performance in aromatics [147]. - **Pure Benzene Outlook**: In 2026, the pure benzene market is expected to remain loose. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change, but there is a possibility of improvement in the second - quarter supply - demand structure [149]. - **Styrene Outlook**: In 2026, new devices may force old - fashioned devices to reduce loads or stop production. The turning point may occur in the spring maintenance season. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy - related news [150].

威廉姆斯、米兰等美联储官员再放鸽 市场分析 贵金属日报 | 2025-12-16 期现价差：2025-12-15，国内溢价方面，昨日黄金国内溢价为-10.84元/克，白银国内溢价为-894.90元/千克。金银 比价：昨日上期所金银主力合约价格比约为66.46，较前一交易日变动-1.42%，外盘金银比价为66.96，较上一交易 日变化-1.28%。 美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备。预计美国失业率将在2025年底降至4.5%。劳动力市场 风险已上升，而通胀风险已缓解。美联储的政策已从温紧缩转向中性。预计通胀率将在2026年升至2.5%，2027年 降至2%。预计会积极使用常备回购便利工具来管理流动性。美联储理事米兰重申，美联储的政策立场对经济构成 不必要的限制，认为剔除\"幻影通胀\"后，"潜在"的通胀水平已接近联储的目标。地缘方面，德国、法国、英国、 意大利、波兰、芬兰、挪威、瑞典、荷兰及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称，将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克兰。 声明称"该部队将协助乌克兰重建武装力量、保障乌克兰领空安全，并提升海上安全，相关行动也将包括在乌克兰 境内展开的军事行动"。 期货行情与 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌缓和叠加过剩格局未变，油价偏空。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和，南美 地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | 原油 | 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量： | | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | ★ | | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上升。 | | | | 两油石化库存增至同期高位，现货跟涨不足，基差大幅走弱。国内开工季 | | L | 节性回升，LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯 | | | 空头盘整 | 裂解超预期检修难度相对较高，供 ...

一、国际新闻 隔夜国际金融市场呈现多空交织态势，美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.09%，纳指跌0.59%，标普500 指数跌0.16%，其中特斯拉股价逆势上涨3.5%，推动马斯克身价首次达到6000亿美元，成为有史以来首 位突破该关口的富豪。 大宗商品方面，贵金属延续涨势，现货黄金突破4310美元/盎司，纽约期金突破4340美元/盎司，日内分 别上涨0.10%和0.09%；原油价格则承压下跌，WTI原油期货收跌1.08%报56.82美元/桶，布伦特原油期 货收跌0.92%报60.56美元/桶，盘中WTI原油曾短暂突破57美元/桶。 此外，高盛上调2026年铜价预测至11,400美元/吨，美国银行预计明年铝价将突破3000美元/吨，因供应 短缺预期升温。 二、国内新闻 国际市场中国概念股表现疲软，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.17%，多只个股跌幅显著：复朗集团跌 9.57%，能链智电跌9.52%，小牛电动跌6.92%，嘉楠科技跌6.15%，趣店跌6.25%；盘中指数一度跌超 2%，反映市场对中概股短期情绪谨慎。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但 ...

Group 1 - The core breakthrough of the peace agreement involves a shift from territorial deadlock to security guarantees, with key terms revised to focus on practical aspects like ceasefire and prisoner exchanges while postponing core disputes over territory and NATO membership [2][21] - Ukraine has accepted a collective defense commitment similar to NATO's Article 5 from the US and Europe, while excluding direct NATO membership, and the limit on the Ukrainian military size has been increased from 600,000 to 800,000, maintaining defense autonomy [2][21] Group 2 - The US is leading a transactional diplomacy approach, exchanging security guarantees for Ukrainian concessions, particularly targeting the development rights of Ukrainian mineral resources, with 50% of the reconstruction fund's revenue allocated to the US [3][22] - Europe is participating passively, with Germany, France, and the UK proposing a modified peace plan emphasizing that territorial issues should be decided by a national referendum in Ukraine, attempting to weaken US unilateral dominance [3][22] Group 3 - Ukraine's compromise is driven by dual pressures of military and economic exhaustion, with Russia controlling 120,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory (20% of the country), highlighting vulnerabilities in Ukraine's defense system [4][24] - The infrastructure in Ukraine has suffered systemic damage, necessitating a comprehensive ceasefire to ensure wartime elections, forcing Ukraine to trade resources for security [5][25] Group 4 - The US has a strategic interest in key minerals, with Ukraine's lithium and titanium reserves ranking among the top globally, and the mineral agreement stipulates that 50% of future mineral revenues will fund the US-led reconstruction efforts to offset military aid costs [6][26] Group 5 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a tripartite balance among the US, Russia, and Europe, with the US prioritizing resource control through security agreements that bind Ukraine's mineral development rights, thereby diminishing Europe's economic influence in Ukraine [7][27] - There is a tacit agreement between the US and Russia, allowing Russia to maintain control over eastern Ukraine in exchange for halting further advances, which reduces US strategic investments [8][28] Group 6 - Europe faces a dilemma of marginalization, losing security discourse power, as Germany and France push for the "Eastern Sentinel" initiative to strengthen eastern defense but cannot prevent direct negotiations between the US and Russia [9][29] - The competition for resources is intensifying, with the EU submitting a mineral cooperation agreement to compete with the US for dominance over Ukrainian lithium and titanium [10][30] Group 7 - Investment opportunities arise from the urgent need for reconstruction in Ukraine's energy and transportation infrastructure, with international engineering firms like China Power Construction (601669) and China Communications Construction (601800) likely to secure contracts [11][31] - The repair of the electrical grid and construction of natural gas pipelines will drive equipment exports from companies like XJ Electric (000400) and Beiken Energy (002828) [12][32] Group 8 - The development of lithium mines in Ukraine will benefit battery manufacturers like CATL (300750) and Huayou Cobalt (603799) as they diversify their supply chains, while titanium processing will attract attention to Baotai Co. (600456) [13][33] - The restoration of the Black Sea grain corridor will benefit agricultural trade, reducing import costs for companies like COFCO Corporation (600737) and Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) [14][34] Group 9 - The peace agreement signals the start of a post-war reconstruction cycle, presenting structural opportunities in infrastructure, minerals, and agriculture, with investors needing to monitor the progress of the agreement and the dynamics of US-European resource competition [20][38]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘因素反复扰动，国际油价弱势下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘因素反复扰动，国际油价弱势下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,616万桶/日，较2024年上升 299万桶/日。(2)OPEC:11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2848万桶/日，较10月份下降0.1万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1458.5万桶/日，较10月 | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | | | | | 份上升4.5万桶/日。（3）IEA：11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2899万桶/日，较10月份下降25万桶/日；Non ...

【环球网财经综合报道】受AI数据中心需求激增、矿端供应受限及美国外铜源紧张影响，国际铜价逐步逼近12000美 元大关。今年以来，铜价累计上涨超30%，有望创下2009年以来最大年度涨幅。麦格理预测2024年全球铜需求达2700 万吨，同比增长2.7%，其中中国需求增幅为3.7%。 《南华早报》近日发文称，作为中国东部的一个重要工业枢纽，山东省正在推进转型，目标成为全球顶级铜冶炼基 地，以强化这种战略金属的供应链；周二发布的实施方案中，山东省政府承诺扩大铜业规模，未来两年将取得快速进 展。按照计划，到2027年，全省铜业产值目标超过2.08万亿人民币（约2835亿美元）。 报道还提出，尽管中国是全球最大的铜进口国和消费国，但山东意欲拓宽出口市场；随着地缘政治紧张和科技竞争加 剧，铜作为关键资产的作用日益凸显。 行业贸易杂志《近海工程师》显示，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月铜期货价格周四上涨0.48%，至每吨11611.50美 元，基本金属价格已接近11771美元的历史高位。 对此，高盛研究团队周四发布的报告中，行业分析师欧恩·戴恩斯莫尔写道："随着利率下降、美元走弱以及中国经济 增长预期改善，铜和铝、锂等工业金 ...