Group 1: Report Overview - The report analyzes the impact of the escalating conflict between the US and Venezuela on the crude oil market [3][4]. - The report was published on August 26, 2025, by Baocheng Futures Research Institute [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US deployment of an expeditionary strike group near Venezuela is an "extreme pressure" tactic, reflecting geopolitical, energy - security, and great - power games [4][8]. - This action brings both a glimmer of hope for the recovery of Venezuela's crude oil industry and seeds of new turmoil [4]. - The future of Venezuela is an important window for observing the game between "US hegemony" and the "multipolar world" [4]. Group 4: Chapter Summaries Introduction: US Sends Fleet to Apply Extreme Pressure on Venezuela - In late August 2025, the US sent an expeditionary strike group to waters near Venezuela under the pretext of anti - drug and security, which is widely seen as a move against the Maduro regime [4][8]. Chapter 1: South American Geopolitical Crisis and Crude Oil Futures Rebound - Due to the South American geopolitical crisis and increased supply risks of Venezuelan crude oil, recent domestic and international crude oil futures prices have stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded slightly [9]. - US WTI crude oil futures rose from $61.45/barrel to $65.10/barrel, a 5.94% increase; Brent crude oil futures rose from $65.01/barrel to $69.07/barrel, a 6.25% increase; domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 rose from 479 yuan/barrel to 500.8 yuan/barrel, a 4.55% increase [9]. Chapter 2: Historical Crude Oil Feud between the US and Venezuela - The relationship between the US and Venezuela has been a complex "feud" centered around oil, which is a microcosm of global energy, geopolitics, and ideological conflicts [16]. - In the early 20th century, US oil companies dominated Venezuela's oil industry. In the 1970s, Venezuela nationalized its oil resources [16][17]. - After Chavez came to power in 1999, he used oil as an "anti - US tool", which intensified the conflict with the US. Since 2017, the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuela, but in 2023, it relaxed restrictions on Chevron [19][20][21]. Chapter 3: Venezuela, an Energy Power with the World's Largest Oil Reserves - Venezuela has about 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, ranking first in the world. In July 2025, its crude oil production was 914,000 barrels per day, and from January to July 2025, it was 6.45 million barrels per day [4][25]. - Its oil resources include conventional oil in the Maracaibo Lake area and heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt. The Orinoco Belt holds about 220 billion barrels of recoverable heavy oil, accounting for over 75% of the country's total reserves [25][27]. - Despite having large reserves, Venezuela's oil production has been severely affected by various factors such as sanctions and management issues. However, it has great potential for recovery [29][30]. Chapter 4: Impact of the US - Venezuela Conflict on Crude Oil Futures Prices - The US military action and economic "selective opening" policy towards Venezuela have complex and far - reaching impacts on the global crude oil market [32][33]. - Short - term supply fluctuations and price risks are intensified. If the conflict worsens, Venezuelan oil exports may be interrupted, causing short - term price jumps [34]. - The trend of diversification of the global crude oil supply pattern is strengthened, and energy nationalism and geopolitical risk premiums may become normalized [34][35]. Chapter 5: Analysis of the Impact of Venezuelan Crude Oil on China's Asphalt - Venezuela is an important source of asphalt raw material imports for China. Its heavy crude oil with high viscosity and high residue content is suitable for asphalt production [39][42]. - Although direct imports from Venezuela have decreased due to US sanctions, the energy complementarity between the two countries still exists, and Venezuelan crude oil may play an important role in China's asphalt industry in the future [42]. Chapter 6: Summary - The game between the US and Venezuela in the crude oil field will continue, and its direction depends on factors such as US domestic politics and economy, the stability of the Maduro regime, and international reactions [43]. - The US military action is a manifestation of geopolitical, energy - security, and great - power games, which affects Venezuela's crude oil industry and the global energy market [44].

火光，蔓得挺远，乌克兰边境那片，阿塞拜疆的能源厂子，说没就没，天没亮，整片地方全是废铁，72 小时，48亿美元，连灰都找不到，俄罗斯导弹飞过去，目标挺准，打的就是阿塞拜疆在乌克兰那几个能 源点，西边那些国家，一开始都说俄罗斯毛病不少，这会儿集体闭嘴了，新闻也变得稀稀拉拉，全球盯 着这一块，谁也没太敢吱声，这背后，啥关系，啥博弈，真不好说。 乌克兰跟阿塞拜疆签那个直供欧洲的天然气协议，莫斯科反应看着就不寻常，三天三夜，炼油厂、储油 罐，都塌了，像是警告，谁挑战俄罗斯在能源上的地盘，得掂量掂量，欧洲这边，没人吭气，德国悄悄 把战略储备用上，嘴上一句都没提，冷战那会儿，中老年人肯定记得，东西方对着干，神经绷得紧，现 在换了种打法，动作看着简单，实际藏着门道，谁都不露声色。 阿塞拜疆最近动作多，抓俄罗斯记者，关掉俄文化中心，最要紧的，把天然气协议签了，避开俄罗斯走 欧洲，巴库人觉得底气有了，后面有土耳其，有以色列帮着，这些看着热闹，地缘政治里，小国往那一 站，其实最难混，土耳其、以色列能出头吗，真正能保安全的，还得看那些说了算的大国。 乌克兰老百姓第一个遭殃，加油站排队又冒出来，军用油料紧张，公交都跑不起来，家里人聊 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have been adjusted, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 180 yuan and 175 yuan per ton respectively, effective from August 26, 2025 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices based on the average price comparison over the previous ten working days [1] - This marks the first price decrease after two consecutive rounds of price freezes [1] Group 2: Cost Implications - For private vehicles, the fuel cost for a car running 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers will decrease by approximately 10 yuan before the next price adjustment window on September 9, 2025 [4] - For the logistics industry, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will see a fuel cost reduction of around 266 yuan [4] Group 3: Historical Price Trends - In 2025, there have been 17 rounds of adjustments in domestic fuel prices, resulting in 6 increases, 7 decreases, and 4 freezes [4] - The net changes in prices since the beginning of the year are a decrease of 405 yuan per ton for gasoline and 390 yuan per ton for diesel [4] Group 4: International Oil Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which has affected local refining and export capabilities [7] - Despite rising geopolitical risks, oil prices have remained within a relatively narrow range, indicating strong fundamental resilience [8] - Market participants are closely monitoring U.S. policy developments, particularly regarding potential sanctions against Russia, which could impact supply uncertainty [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on Indian goods starting August 27, citing India's purchase of Russian oil and agricultural protection policies as primary reasons for this punitive measure [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The 50% tariff represents the highest level of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on foreign goods to date [1]. - The U.S. accuses India of violating World Trade Organization agreements by maintaining high tariffs and non-tariff barriers in agriculture, with tariffs on products like apples and corn reaching 39% to 50% [5]. - The U.S. demands that India fully open its agricultural, fisheries, and dairy markets as part of negotiations [5]. Group 2: India's Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized that the government will not yield to external pressures and will prioritize the interests of Indian farmers [3]. - Modi stated that India will enhance its economic strength to withstand external pressures and is prepared to bear costs without sacrificing farmers' interests [3]. - The Indian government has decided to continue importing Russian oil, asserting that such actions are based on market considerations and the need to ensure energy security for its population [6]. Group 3: India-Russia Trade Relations - India has signed long-term contracts for Russian oil and plans to maintain these imports despite U.S. sanctions [6]. - Over 90% of trade settlements between India and Russia have shifted to local currencies, indicating a significant increase in bilateral trade, which has grown nearly sixfold over the past five years [6].

2025年8月18日的凌晨，乌克兰出动无人机对俄罗斯布良斯克地区的尼科利斯科耶泵站发起了精准打击，目标直指那条象征着过去与如今的"友谊"输油管 道。这不仅仅是一根输送石油的管道，它是苏联时代遗留下的重型基础设施，也是匈牙利、斯洛伐克和捷克这些中东欧国家的能源命脉。这条管道，对于这 些国家来说，至关重要，一旦中断，意味着能源的枯竭与经济的震荡。 这次袭击并非孤立事件，而是持续升级的军事行动的一部分。仅仅三天后，乌克兰再次发起了第二轮攻击，将匈牙利的石油供应彻底切断，预计这一状态将 持续至少五天。随之而来的是匈牙利国内油价的暴涨，以及整个欧盟的震荡反应。匈牙利和斯洛伐克的外交部长迅速联合发声，愤怒地批评乌克兰的举动， 直言这并非战争，而是"自断命脉"，直接让两国的能源供应受到了致命打击。 这场袭击的时间选择，也让人颇为费解——它发生在乌克兰总统泽连斯基即将赴美与特朗普会晤的前夕。而特朗普此时正积极推动一场旨在结束俄乌战争的 停火谈判，乌克兰此举显然有意先发制人，想在谈判桌上获得更多话语权。这次炸油管，无疑是乌克兰试图通过能源手段施加外交压力的举动，意图削弱俄 罗斯的经济收入，同时也警告那些长期对其在欧盟内发声的国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is range - bound, and a medium - term short position is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have rebounded recently but have not broken through the previous trading range. In the short term, this is mainly influenced by macro sentiment and geopolitics. Powell's statement has increased the probability of a September interest rate cut, boosting market risk appetite. Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, with the time and location of the talks undetermined, and the war shows no sign of easing [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.14 to close at $64.80 per barrel, a gain of 1.79%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.07 to close at $68.80 per barrel, a gain of 1.58%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 1.16% at 499 yuan per barrel [1] - Indonesia's Trade Ministry urged the EU to immediately lift the counter -vailing duties on biodiesel imports as the WTO ruled in Indonesia's favor on several key claims in its complaint [1] - Iran will hold talks with the UK, France, and Germany in Geneva, Switzerland on the Iranian nuclear issue. The talks will also cover the lifting of sanctions, the nuclear issue, and the future of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 [1] - Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have exacerbated the summer fuel crisis in Russia, causing prices to soar during the seasonal demand peak. In August, Russian fuel wholesale prices hit a record high, and fuel shortages have been reported in some regions [1] Investment Logic - Oil price rebounds are affected by macro sentiment and geopolitical factors, including the increased probability of a September interest rate cut and the deadlock in Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Short position in oil [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russia, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russia, and Middle East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of slightly bullish oscillations, awaiting the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. The ratings for each variety are as follows: oil prices are expected to be slightly bearish with oscillations; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate; LLDPE, PP, and PL are expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hardening of the US stance towards Russia is the main reason for the recent strengthening of crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the chemical sector continues to be strong, awaiting policy implementation. The polyester chain performs best, while the pure benzene and styrene chains underperform. Polyolefins saw a late - stage price increase, and ethylene glycol's low port inventory supports its price [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Amidst warming macro - sentiment and continuous geopolitical disturbances, oil prices rebounded slightly after stabilizing. However, with OPEC+ accelerating supply release, high US production, and the potential decline of high - operating refineries in China and the US, the rebound's sustainability is limited. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations should be monitored [10]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are outweighed by the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine, Middle - East, and US - Venezuela situations. The geopolitical premium for asphalt has resurfaced, supporting its cost. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined from its high, and the refinery's continuous return to operation has driven the spread down. The high premium of asphalt futures is supported, but its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the geopolitical premium for high - sulfur fuel oil has returned. Although the increase in heavy - oil supply is more certain, factors such as the attack on Russian refineries, the attack on the Druzhba pipeline, and US sanctions on Chinese fuel - oil - importing enterprises have contributed to the price increase. The high cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil also supports its price. However, the price disturbance caused by geopolitical escalation is short - term, and changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its valuation is low. Fundamentally, the pressure on domestic refined - oil supply may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation, following the fluctuations of crude oil [13]. - **PX**: With the overall oscillation of crude oil prices and the strengthening of naphtha prices, there is still some support at the cost end. The new PTA production line has started production, and with the continuous improvement of terminal polyester and textile demand, the price of PX is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend under low - inventory conditions. It is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, paying attention to the support at 6750 - 6800 [14]. - **PTA**: The new production line has started production, and the pattern of inventory reduction remains unchanged. There is short - term cost support and a favorable macro - sentiment. In the medium - term, the pattern is expected to improve in August - September, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The recent positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. In Asia, South Korea plans to shut down and overhaul cracking units in October, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub has risen. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, but the decline rate has slowed. The market is trading on the expected increase in inventory pressure. In the short - term, it is driven by sentiment and may be slightly bullish. In the medium - term, if no specific de - capacity policies are implemented, it may return to the fundamental trading of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Styrene**: The direct sales to downstream have decreased, and the arrival of supplementary goods has increased, leading to inventory accumulation at the port and a price decline. With the news of de - capacity in China and South Korea, the prices of pure benzene and styrene have rebounded. In September - October, with more maintenance plans, the supply - demand situation may reverse, and it is possible to try to expand profits in the September - October period. Fundamentally, it is still bearish, but short - selling is against the trend in the short - term due to factors such as production - limit policies for the September parade, continuous release of macro - policies, and coal - mine safety accidents [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Despite high domestic supply pressure, the visible inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. According to the shipping and arrival schedules, the port inventory will continue to decline in early September. The short - term fundamentals are moderately positive, and the low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season provide good support. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the EG09 - 01 reverse - spread position should be held [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is waiting for cost guidance from upstream products. The upstream polymerization cost oscillates without obvious guidance, and the price of short - fiber oscillates within a range. Fundamentally, it has weakened slightly, and the production - sales ratio has slowed down. Without obvious positive demand stimuli, the processing fee is expected to remain in a low - level range. The absolute value of short - fiber follows the fluctuations of raw materials and oscillates in the short - term [21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited, and the processing fee is passively compressed. As the peak season ends, demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the polyester factories' willingness to adjust their operating rates in September. The price oscillates, and the absolute value follows the fluctuations of raw materials [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The recent news of China's chemical - capacity policy has boosted the market sentiment, but the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for buying at low prices in the far - month can be monitored [27]. - **Urea**: The actual demand is insufficient, and the export release is slow. Without positive support under the unchanged fundamentals, the futures price is under pressure. Before the actual export release, the market is in a wait - and - see mode, and the futures price is expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of exports [25]. - **LLDPE**: The futures price has rebounded slightly. The news of domestic device overhauls to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry and the news of South Korean petrochemical capacity elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The short - term oil price has rebounded slightly, and the macro - level still has capital games. The fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, paying attention to the demand during the peak season [29]. - **PP**: The futures price oscillates. The news of domestic device overhauls and the expectation of South Korean petrochemical device elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price oscillates in the short - term, and the supply side of PP still has an increasing trend. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, with low operating rates in the plastic - weaving and injection - molding industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **PL**: In the short - term, it follows the oscillation of PP. The short - term sentiment in the olefin sector has been boosted by the news from China and South Korea, but the downstream buying enthusiasm has decreased. The trading volume of propylene enterprises has decreased, and the price has moved down slightly. The short - term futures price follows the fluctuations of PP, and the polypropylene processing fee represented by PP - PL is the focus of the market [33]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has improved, and PVC has weakly stabilized. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream has started autumn maintenance, production has declined, downstream operating rates have changed little, and low - price purchases have increased. The anti - dumping policy may take effect within a month, and export expectations are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the driving force coming from the improvement of market sentiment and the pressure from inventory accumulation [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price increase may slow down. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the inventory replenishment demand from non - aluminum industries is approaching the end, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts in the near - month. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in the October contract at high prices. For the January contract, it is recommended to buy on dips because the expectations of alumina and MHP production cannot be falsified, and the high operating rate of alumina supports the demand for caustic soda [35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, and others have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 8 with a change of - 4 [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is 8 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 72650 [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 198 with a change of - 21 [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part provides data monitoring on the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (energy index) are provided. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2486.32, up 0.97%, and the energy index on August 25, 2025, is 1226.46, up 0.84% for the day [281][283].

峰回路转：中印联手，美国关税阴影下的"新平衡" 在美国对印度施加关税壁垒，意图施压的"前脚"刚刚落下，新德里便以一种意想不到的方式"回敬"了华盛顿。就在2025年8月，特朗普政府突然宣布对印度 商品加征25%的惩罚性关税，将此前对印度的整体关税推升至惊人的50%，此举无疑对印度的农业、汽车及医药等关键产业构成了直接冲击，预估年损失高 达70亿美元。然而，仅在关税生效后的短短48小时内，局势便发生了惊人的逆转。印度外交部突然宣布了莫迪总理即将访华的消息，而中国外交部长王毅也 紧急启程飞赴新德里，双方连夜签署了十项意义重大的合作协议，勾勒出一幅截然不同的地缘政治图景。 此次中印两国在边境管控方面的突破尤为引人注目。在中印边界问题特别代表第24次会晤中，双方首次在边境的东段和中段建立了将军级会谈机制。此前， 此类直接军事沟通渠道仅存在于西部边境，而今，三段边界均已打通，这标志着双方在军事互信方面迈出了关键一步。更具象征意义的是，在海拔4500米的 乃堆拉山口，中印双方同步撤除了去年刚刚部署的装甲车编队，这一举动向外界释放了缓和边境紧张局势的强烈信号。据印度军方消息人士透露，双方还就 边境部队"枪口不得朝天"的实操细 ...

Group 1 - The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising the total tariff to 50%, impacting key exports like textiles and automotive parts [1] - India has responded by suspending certain tariff benefits to the US and plans to seek trade adjustments through the WTO [1] - Energy cooperation is a significant factor in the US-India trade tensions, with India continuing to purchase Russian oil despite US pressure [1] Group 2 - China has publicly supported India during the US-India tensions, with the Chinese ambassador stating that silence only encourages bullying [3] - China's support for India is seen as a strategic move, as India is viewed as a less significant threat compared to China by the US [3] - The trade volume between China and India is projected to reach $138.4 billion in 2024, with China being India's largest trading partner [3] Group 3 - There are ongoing discussions between China, Russia, and India to restore a trilateral cooperation mechanism amid deteriorating US-India relations [5] - Recent improvements in China-India relations include agreements on direct flights and government dialogue mechanisms [5] - India's Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of mutual learning between China and India, rejecting US mediation in border disputes [5] Group 4 - The potential for a 60% decline in Indian exports to the US if the 50% tariff remains in place poses a risk to India's GDP [7] - Major Indian manufacturers are halting expansion plans due to the high tariffs, indicating significant economic pressure [7] - India's foreign policy is characterized by uncertainty, but the current US-India tensions may provide India with an opportunity to adjust its diplomatic stance [7]

投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属低位上行，沪金主力收涨0.46%，沪银主力收涨1.89%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息，但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国7月零售销售强 劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至 80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压， 人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金 ...