Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with the upside potential depending on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, and the downside limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, awaiting further clarity on fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and January production plans; long - term attention should be on the implementation of the purchase and storage policy and inventory depletion progress [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,850 yuan/ton and closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 221,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 28, 2025, was 9,907 lots, an increase of 480 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 - silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 - silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 25, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon was basically stable, with the planned production in December around 114,000 tons, slightly decreasing from November, and the demand for industrial silicon changed little. The weekly production schedule of organic silicon fluctuated slightly compared to the previous week, with a possible reduction in industrial silicon consumption of about 5,000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the regenerative aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that cut production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - cut state. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate was expected to be stable with a weakening trend [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated downward, opening at 59,000 yuan/ton and closing at 56,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.84% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 95,631 lots (119,162 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 69,428 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.80 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.40% increase; silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a 0.88% increase. The weekly polysilicon production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase; silicon wafer production was 10.33 GW, a 3.19% decrease [3]. Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices - Silicon wafer: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.25 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.35 yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cell: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5]. - Component: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

化工日报 | 2025-12-30 供应预期增加，PX/PTA减仓回撤 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，俄乌谈判中的细节内容有进一步共识达成，油价再度回撤，地缘消息反复。明年Q1需求淡季，油价的下 行压力依然较大。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN377美元/吨(环比变动+16.00美元/吨）。国内外PX装置平稳运行，依靠目前宽松的MX 供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持。近期PXN大幅上涨至季节性高位，效益提 升下海外重启计划增多，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，供应端存增加预期。明年二季度PX检修计划较多，远 端预期仍较好，同时聚酯开工坚挺下PXN有支撑，但调油无明显起色，当前供应增加和聚酯需求下滑风险逐步显 现，PTA工厂开始卖PX，关注资金动向以及下游聚酯负荷变动。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -63元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费346元/吨（环比变动+32元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费336元/吨（环比变动+13元/吨），近端PTA检修较多，聚酯负荷下降但整体减产不如预期,PTA12 月平衡表去库, 1月累库压力尚可，但近期加工费好转下关注装置 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-30 纯苯港口库存进一步加快累积 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-109元/吨（+56）。纯苯港口库存30.00万吨（+2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费133美元/ 吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费127美元/吨（+6美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差179.9美元/吨（-2.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-150元/吨（-5元/吨）。 市场分析 纯苯方面。海外成品油裂差仍偏弱，调油逻辑对芳烃支撑有限，纯苯美韩价差或逐步见顶。国内纯苯到港有所回 升，下游提货淡季进一步走弱，港口库存继续加快累积至高位。苯乙烯、苯胺开工底部略有回升，CPL开工仍维持 同期低位，苯酚、己二酸开工尚可。而纯苯加工费维持低位背景下，国内纯苯开工仍低。 苯乙烯方面，周初苯乙烯港口库存仍变化不大，原累库周期继续往后延，一方面是渤化短期检修，另一方面是前 期苯乙烯出口签单提振。下游提货淡季仍一般，下游开工小幅反弹，淡季EPS开工有所小幅反弹，PS库存下降后的 开工再度回升，ABS库存压力持续而开工延续低位。 策略 单边：无 基差及跨期：BZ2603-BZ2605逢高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The new production capacity of soda ash will be concentrated at the end of the year, which will put pressure on next year. Although the demand side is weak, with the shift of positions, the price is expected to stabilize. [16] - The price of glass is also expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The fundamentals of glass are still weak, but the downward price space is limited after the shift of positions. The supply - side contraction before the Spring Festival will determine the winter storage intensity. [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 721,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons (-1.9%). The daily output was about 101,000 - 104,000 tons. The supply decreased due to the production reduction of some plants and increased slightly in Sichuan Hebang. The overall start - up rate decreased. [8] - The theoretical profit of the soda ash joint - alkali method in China was -41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was -66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. [8] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.3%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 409,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%), and that for light soda was 307,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15%). [11] - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 88,700 tons, both remaining stable week - on - week. The futures price continued to fall this week, and the mid - stream shipments decreased significantly. [11] 3.1.3 Inventory - The upstream soda ash factory inventory increased to 1.499 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the heavy soda inventory decreased by 19,000 tons, and the light soda inventory increased by 24,000 tons. [15] - The mid - stream inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 10.8% to 450,000 tons. The downstream float glass enterprise soda ash inventory increased slightly. [13][15] 3.1.4 Price Forecast - It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable after the shift of positions and show a volatile and slightly stronger trend next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [16] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and there were currently 218 operating production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels varied. There are still cold - repair production lines to be implemented this month, and it is expected that the daily melting volume of glass will drop to about 150,000 tons to achieve supply - demand balance. [19] 3.2.2 Demand - The demand side is still weak. The orders of sample processing enterprises decreased week - on - week. The enthusiasm for purchasing goods was still limited due to factors such as tight funds. The industry inventory increased slightly. [22] - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. [22] 3.2.3 Price Forecast - This week, the glass shifted positions to the 05 contract, and the futures price stopped falling and stabilized. After the shift of positions, considering future expectations and supply reduction, the downward price space is limited. It is expected that the price will be volatile and slightly stronger next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [23] 3.3 Other Related Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Price Data - The spot and futures prices of soda ash and glass, as well as the basis and price spreads, are provided in detail, showing the price changes in different periods. [27][129] 3.3.2 Production and Consumption Structure Data - The production and consumption structures of soda ash and glass in different years are presented, including production capacity, output, and consumption distribution. [62][123][139][171] 3.3.3 Related Industry Data - Data on the production, import and export, and demand of related industries such as photovoltaic glass, light - alkali demand industries (carbonate lithium, etc.), and some beverage industries are provided. [217][225][237][244]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term supply and demand of propylene are slightly tightened, and the futures price is in a range - bound consolidation. The supply pattern remains loose, but the supply pressure in the main regions has eased. The demand recovery is limited due to cost pressure. The cost support has increased recently, and the short - term rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the shutdown of PDH units [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure The report presents data on the propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, Shandong basis, contract spreads (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05), and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China, with data sources from Tonghuashun and Steel Union, and the research institute of Huatai Futures [1][5][7]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate It includes information on propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking of propylene, as well as capacity utilization rates of PDH, methanol - to - olefins, and crude oil refineries. The data sources are mainly from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [21][24][31]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate It shows the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone. The data sources are from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [37][38][39]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory The report provides data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory, with data sources from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Consumption of electrolytic aluminum is shifting from peak season to off - season, with spot discounts widening, and social inventory rising due to increased arrivals. High - frequency fundamental data restricts the upside of aluminum prices. In the long run, overseas power costs may lead to potential sudden production cuts, and with the expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in China, the decline in aluminum prices is limited. Consider the arbitrage between SHFE aluminum and aluminum alloy [6]. - After the absolute price of alumina rises, it's difficult to ship old warehouse receipts in Xinjiang, and the regular tender procurement of electrolytic aluminum plants has stopped. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the long - term supply of ore is sufficient, so the ore price may be under long - term pressure. The pattern of oversupply is hard to change, and social inventory will continue to increase. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is sufficient, and the winter storage expectation is low [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data Aluminum Spot - On December 29, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 22,490 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 200 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 390 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 22,410 yuan/ton, a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount changed - 10 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 29, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 22,350 yuan/ton, closed at 22,570 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,980 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 618,625 lots, and the open interest was 289,255 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 645,000 tons, a change of 28,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 78,455 tons, a change of 1,396 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 519,250 tons, a change of - 1,800 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,665 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,690 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,750 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 313 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 29, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,850 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,729 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,308,863 lots, and the open interest was 396,675 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 29, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,400 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,900 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,499 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 2 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on SHFE aluminum and short on aluminum alloy [9]

化工日报 | 2025-12-30 EG延续累库，价格低位整理 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3817元/吨（较前一交易日变动-29元/吨，幅度-0.75%），EG华东市场现货价 3683元/吨（较前一交易日变动+13元/吨，幅度+0.35%），EG华东现货基差-136元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-87美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-857 元/吨（环比+41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副港到港量4.3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-30 市场分析 1、12月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价3008元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨7元/吨，涨幅 0.23%；持仓141333手，环比下跌15886手，成交237579手，环比上涨55761手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2860—2950元/吨； 华东，3000—3120元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，华东和华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。 尽管随着淡季来临，沥青终端需求偏弱，但由于个别沥青现货流通量较为紧张，供应端存在支撑，带动现货均价 小幅上涨。整体来看，目前盘面定价转移到南方地区，局部过剩矛盾仍有待消化。与此同时，委油原料断供事件 则是潜在的上行风险，市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 原油端表现乏力 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-30 成本端支撑与情绪提振，短期小幅反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6453元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为6274元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6300 元/吨（+50），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（+62）， LL华东基差为-53元/吨（+12）， PP华东基差为-134元/吨（+18）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.6%（-1.2%），PP开工率为76.9%（-2.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为73.7元/吨（+166.3），PP油制生产利润为-426.3元/吨（+166.3），PDH制PP生产 利润为-848.4元/吨（-32.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为90.9元/吨（+16.1），PP进口利润为-295.6元/吨（+16.4），PP出口利润为-18.7美元/吨（-2.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.7%（-0.3%），PP ...