2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260129 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，月底成交平平 | 8 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 | 9 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260129 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 20 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货维持高位 | 20 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：持续反弹，高波动态势延续 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：高位震荡20260129 ...

铁矿石： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所下跌，收于783元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌5元/吨，跌幅 为0.6%，成交22万手，减仓0.6万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港PB粉60.8%786跌6，超特 粉673跌2。供应端，澳洲发运量有所增加，巴西发运量稳中有降，全球发运量小幅回升。需求端，铁水 产量环比增加0.09万吨至228.1万吨。47港港口库存、钢厂库存继续累库。多空交织下，矿价或将呈现震 荡走势。 焦煤： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 焦煤：昨日焦煤盘面上涨，截止日盘焦煤2605合约收盘1134.5元/吨，价格上涨18元/吨，涨幅1.61%，持 仓量减少14256手。现货方面，山西临汾地区主焦煤（A9.5、S0.5、G80）下调63元至出厂价1530元/ 吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙5#原煤1013元/吨，价格涨10；蒙3#精煤1070元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应端，部 分煤矿因事故以及搬家倒面停产，其余生产基本正常，年前下游仍有一定的补库预期，上游价格相对坚 挺，个 ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 短纤：高位震荡 20260129 瓶片：高位震荡 20260129 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6724 | 6658 | 66 | PF02-03 | -24 | -4 | -20 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6748 | 6662 | 86 | PF03-04 | -48 | -214 | 166 | | | 短纤2604 | 6796 | 6876 | -80 | PF主力基差 | -58 | -2 | -56 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 255805 | 189740 | 66065 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 690 | 6.660 | 30 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 205016 | 193912 | 11104 | 短纤产销率 | 60% | 68% | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors is supported by factors such as geopolitical situations, policy environments, and supply - demand dynamics. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, and the prices of other metals also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [5][8] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical situation led to a rise in gold and copper prices. LME copper 3M closed up 0.74% to $13,120/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,430 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 173,925 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 148,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong was large, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot narrowed to about 400 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened [4] - **Strategy View**: Precious metals continue to rise, and strategic resource demand is strengthened. The copper ore supply is tight, and the refined copper demand is seasonally weak. Global visible inventory continues to increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to rise slightly. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,500 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - $13,500/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the escalation of the US - Iran issue and the strengthening of the equity market, aluminum prices rose significantly. LME aluminum closed up 1.59% to $3,263/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 25,330 yuan/ton. The SHFE - LME price difference narrowed. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 93,000 to 810,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 143,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventory increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, but the transaction was dull. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 500,000 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: The large increase in aluminum positions has increased price volatility. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, but high prices suppress downstream demand. LME aluminum inventory remains relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for aluminum prices. In the context of loose domestic and foreign policies, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 25,000 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,220 - $3,320/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed flat at 17,016 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S fell $7 to $2,025.5/ton, with a total position of 171,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 211,200 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: Although the visible lead ore inventory has further increased, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. Primary lead production has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and secondary lead smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventory of smelting plants and social lead ingot inventory have both increased, showing a weak industrial situation. However, due to the impact of winter cooling on scrap battery transportation, the raw materials for secondary lead smelting have tightened, and the profit of secondary lead smelting calculated on a spot - order basis is under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.62% to 25,615 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 240,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose $82 to $3,413/ton, with a total position of 234,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 25,240 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,300 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 110,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 26 was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible zinc ore inventory has increased marginally, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Zinc smelting profits have improved slightly, and the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the SHFE - LME ratio, the outflow of zinc has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data announced on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double - loose policy has not been reflected in economic data, so short - term bullish sentiment has retreated. However, the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the costs of European smelters, leading to an increase in LME zinc prices. In addition, the current zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows, and zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [13] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 28, tin prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 443,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.63% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions recovered from maintenance, and there were both constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price wait - and - see attitudes, so short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the decline in tin prices last week, the rigid - demand restocking demand was released intensively. As of January 23, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous Friday [14] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the tin price trend is determined by the capital game in the futures market. Against the background of the strong trend of precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - $58,000/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 28, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 144,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 6,750 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, and that of 1.2% grade was $23/wet ton. The price of nickel iron fluctuated upward, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,053 yuan/nickel point [16] - **Strategy View**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of a reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia, SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,830 yuan in the evening session, a decrease of 0.49% from the previous working day. Among them, the price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 163,500 - 175,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 850 yuan (- 0.50%) from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 - 172,000 yuan, with an average price decrease of 0.45% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 166,280 yuan, a decrease of 7.42% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [19] - **Strategy View**: On Wednesday, most commodities rose, but lithium carbonate was weak, rising first and then falling back to erase the previous day's gains. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, the number of profit - taking orders increased. The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, and the off - season destocking provides strong support. Downstream raw material inventory is limited, and it is expected that the bargaining power is not high. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly, and the exchange adheres to the main tone of strict supervision. It is recommended to wait and see carefully or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 156,000 - 176,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on January 28, 2026, the alumina index rose 2.8% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 647,300 lots, a decrease of 14,900 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 256 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 81 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 159,100 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea decreased by $0.5/ton to $61.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton [22] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. It is expected that the ore price will fluctuate downward. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market's expectation of the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and the pressure of expired warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% (- 75) on the day, with a unilateral position of 295,000 lots, a decrease of 8,706 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in Wuxi market remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 415 (+ 25), and the Wuxi basis was - 165 (+ 75). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 remained unchanged at 7,750 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was 1,055 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,500 yuan/50 - base ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. According to the data on January 23, the social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, among which the inventory of 300 - series was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [25] - **Strategy View**: Last week, the stainless - steel market was active in trading, and prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the expansion of the nickel - stainless - steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity has shifted to the production of high - grade nickel matte with better profits, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality and tradable resources in the market. In addition, the futures warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the stainless - steel market shows a structural supply shortage in the short term, and the near - month contracts continue to strengthen. In terms of inventory, although the downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling increased, and the social inventory continued to decline. On Friday, market news showed that the port logistics of the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park may be suspected of monopoly. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the investigation later, the shipment of Tsingshan - related products may be affected, further increasing the uncertainty on the supply side of stainless steel. Overall, the expectation of tight supply on the raw material side has not been reversed, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up in the future, but the fluctuation may be large, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose significantly. The main AD2603 contract closed up 3.17% to 23,785 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm), the weighted contract position increased to 22,100 lots, the trading volume was 34,100 lots, and the trading volume reached a new high since listing. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.01 to 67,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,855 yuan/ton, which widened significantly month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 increased month - on - month, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 0.02 to 41,500 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the supply - side disturbance continues, providing strong support for prices. However, the demand is relatively average. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [29]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，月底成交平平 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6967 | 0.99% | 626151 | 10434 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -167 | | -149 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -48 | | -31 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6800 | | 6750 | | | | 东 华 | 6900 | | 6850 | | | | 华 南 | 7000 | | 6900 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货偏强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，月底代理开单及中游销售较弱。标品 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Market will focus on inventory impact on the market. If inventory decline is less than expected, Malaysian palm oil may end its rally and face downward pressure. It maintains a near - strong, far - weak pattern. - Soybean oil: Market speculates on potential policy announcements that could boost export demand. Domestic downstream demand is weak due to rapid price increases. - Rapeseed oil: Influenced by strong external markets, domestic prices maintain an upward trend [1]. Cotton Industry - ICE US cotton maintains a low - level震荡 pattern. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be 震荡 - strong in the short term, supported by high cotton consumption in the downstream and the expected adjustment of planting area in 2026 [2]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar maintains a 震荡 pattern. Brazil's sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. Thailand's sugar - crushing season is slow. Domestic sugar prices are weak, but cost and market sentiment provide some support [3]. Jujube Industry - The jujube spot market has weak trading, with prices stabilizing. Some traders offer discounts, and small factories stop production, supporting prices. The futures market is in a low - valuation range, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival trading and inventory [5]. Apple Industry - Driven by pre - holiday demand, market sentiment improves, but the inventory reduction progress is slow. High prices and competition from other fruits may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [7]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn fundamental situation changes little, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. Prices are stable, and attention should be paid to enterprise stocking and policy [9]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is 震荡 - weak, with increasing supply. The futures price is also weak. The market is expected to remain in a bottom - range 震荡 pattern [11]. Meal Industry - US soybeans have strong support. The domestic spot market is loose, with high inventory. The market is expected to be 震荡 before the festival, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [16]. Egg Industry - Egg prices have risen, leading to profitability in egg - chicken farming. Supply is stable, but demand may weaken as pre - holiday stocking nears completion. Attention should be paid to the digestion of high - price eggs [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On January 28, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices had varying degrees of change. For example, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 70 yuan to 8670 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.81% [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the inter - monthly spreads of each variety [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in China showed different trends [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On January 29, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 increased, and the ICE US cotton price also rose [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang - arrival cotton and CC Index decreased slightly [2]. - **Industrial Situation**: The inventory of some regions decreased, while the industrial inventory and some import - related inventories increased [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 rose slightly, and the ICE raw sugar price also increased [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar in the country and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, while the industrial inventory increased [3]. Jujube Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 had small changes, and the spreads between contracts also changed [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade jujubes had different trends, and the basis changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts decreased slightly [5]. Apple Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of apple 2605 and 2610 increased, and the basis decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume of fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased [7]. - **Profit**: The disk profit decreased [7]. Corn Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2603 decreased, and the basis and spreads also changed [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jinzhou Port and Shekou Port had different trends, and the import profit increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of corn starch and corn had different trends, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [9]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of pig 2605 and 2603 had small changes, and the spreads between contracts decreased [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions decreased, and the slaughter volume and white - strip price increased [11]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans in different regions and contracts had different trends [16]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different varieties and contracts, such as the soybean - rapeseed meal spread and the inter - monthly spreads, changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased, but the absolute inventory was still high [16]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 03 and 04 contracts had different trends, and the basis increased [19]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of eggs, egg - chicken seedlings, and culled chickens increased, and the egg - feed ratio also increased [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: Egg production is stable, and demand may weaken as pre - holiday stocking nears completion [19].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1134.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.61%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1684.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.96%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1 月 28 日，河北、天津地区部分钢厂对焦炭采购价格进行首轮上调，湿熄焦上调 50 | | | | | 元/吨，干熄焦上调 55 元/吨，2026 年 1 月 30 日零点执行。 | | | | | 2、国家能源局数据显示，截至 2025 年底，全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比 | | | 焦煤、 | | 增长 16.1%。 | | 黑色 | 焦炭 | 区间震荡 | 3、本周，Mysteel 统计 314 家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用率为 36.8%， ...

2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：震荡偏强 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货产区稳定、销区补涨，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260129 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节后淡季预期未变 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾扩大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：震荡偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,270 | 涨跌幅 0.35% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,344 | 涨跌幅 0.80% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

期货市场交易指引 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 4,151.24 | 0.27% | | 深圳成指 | 14,342.89 | 0.09% | | 沪深 300 | 4,717.99 | 0.26% | | 上证 50 | 3,060.56 | 0.27% | | 中证 500 | 8,601.16 | 0.61% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 53,358.71 | 0.05% | | 道琼指数 | 49,015.60 | 0.02% | | 标普 500 | 6,978.03 | -0.01% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,857.45 | 0.17% | | 美元指数 | 96.3455 | 0.61% | | 人民币 | 6.9453 | -0.18% | | 纽约黄金 | 5,447.80 | 5.18% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of iron ore are expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][7]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range oscillations with cost as the bottom support [2][11]. - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and is expected to oscillate within a range; coking coal is expected to oscillate within a range [2][15][16]. - The supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising [2][20]. - Logs are expected to oscillate within a range [2][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of futures I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton (-0.63%); the positions decreased by 6,440. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores declined slightly, and the basis increased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 futures were 3,123 yuan/ton and 3,280 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.32% and 0.39%. The positions of RB2605 increased by 29,747, and those of HC2605 increased by 9,222. Spot prices in most regions decreased or remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - continuous and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased. In January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased. The social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. BHP's first - half iron ore output hit a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased in quantity and price. Some steel products are subject to export license management [7][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 were 5,632 and 5,606 respectively; the closing prices of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 were 5,802 and 5,832 respectively. Spot prices and various spreads changed to different extents [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The start - up rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai changed. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,134.5 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,684 yuan/ton, up 1.0%. Spot prices of most coking coals and cokes remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction had a 27% non - sale rate, and the market sentiment cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different degrees of change. The January long - term agreement prices of some regions decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the port market price was firm, with a slight increase in upstream quotes, but downstream demand was weak. The production area market was stable and slightly strong. In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, and the coal import volume in December 2025 exceeded expectations [22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed to different degrees. The spot prices of most logs remained stable, and the spreads also changed [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].