晨报 煤焦 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 28 日 逻辑：上周，受煤炭市场核查超产相关政策影响，市场看涨情绪激增， 焦煤期货价格大幅拉升，周涨幅超 35%，上周五夜盘价格开始回落。现货 市场跟随偏强，焦价完成第 3 轮提涨，周末期间焦企开始第 4 轮提涨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 7 月份以来，"反内卷""稳增长"等一系列利多消息刺激，叠加基 本面供需有所改善，国家能源局核查煤矿超产，市场看涨情绪爆发，煤价 连续涨停式拉涨，上周五盘后，交易所发布 JM2509 合约的单日开仓量不 得超过 500 手，夜盘焦煤价格大幅回落。 煤焦：交易所下调焦煤单日开仓 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-626885 ...

2025.7.21-2025.7.27 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 港股市场策略周报 l 港股市场表现回顾： 2 n 政策端官方反内卷叠加雅江水电相关大基建概念带动市场资金流入进一步改善，本周港股市场持续强势表现，恒生综指 /恒生指数/恒生科技分别+2.45%/+2.27%/+2.51%。本周市场一级行业板块多数收涨，仅电讯业小幅收跌。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点为79%，估值水平超5年均值。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：6月工业企业利润数据表现改善，但可持续性皆存疑，扣除汽车行业后的工业企业利润数据同比增速仍在走弱。 n 资金面：美国7月Marki tPMI初值服务业制造业景气大幅分化；本周南向资金净买入继续改善，年内流入额超去年全年。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：近期国内经济数据有亮点，但持续性有待观察；政策面：政策组合加力应对内需走弱，近期雅江水电启动大基 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the commodity market, highlighting significant price drops due to new trading restrictions imposed by exchanges [5][10] - Various commodities experienced substantial declines, with some falling by over 11%, indicating a volatile trading environment [7][9] - The trading restrictions are aimed at reducing speculative trading and stabilizing the market, which may lead to both significant gains and losses for investors [10][9] Group 2 - The article notes a shift in investment focus within the Hong Kong stock market, with capital moving from bank stocks to insurance and brokerage sectors [19][23] - The non-bank financial sector in Hong Kong has shown strong performance, with ETFs in this category experiencing significant inflows and price increases [21][27] - Recent data indicates that net buying in the insurance and brokerage sectors has surpassed that of bank stocks, reflecting a change in investment strategy among investors [25][26] Group 3 - The article mentions the automotive industry, particularly the electric vehicle sector, facing potential sales declines in the latter half of the year due to high comparative sales figures from the previous year [14][13] - Major automotive companies have already adjusted their production and sales targets downward in response to anticipated market conditions [14][15]

Group 1: Industrial Profitability - In June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in June was down 6.9% year-on-year, contributing a 6.9 percentage point drag on profit growth, although this was an improvement from the 10.2 percentage point drag in May[8] - Industrial production showed resilience with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in industrial added value, outperforming May's 5.8%[8] Group 2: Future Profitability Pressure - The second half of 2025 is expected to see continued pressure on corporate profitability due to potential depletion of U.S. demand from prior "import rush" activities[10] - Tariffs have increased costs for enterprises, impacting profit levels, similar to the trend observed during the last U.S.-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019[10] - Multiple industries are pushing for "anti-involution," which may further compress profit margins in sectors with weak downstream demand[25] Group 3: Resilience in Equipment Manufacturing - Equipment manufacturing has shown relative resilience, with profit margins performing better than other sectors since April 2025[26] - The mining industry has maintained a profit margin of around 31% since April 2025, despite revenue growth remaining negative[26] - Companies that have already expanded overseas or are establishing factories abroad are likely to capture more market share amid trade frictions[27][28]

Group 1 - A-shares have experienced wide fluctuations since 2025, with the overall trend showing mixed performance across major indices [1] - As of June 23, 2025, the cumulative performance of key A-share indices includes: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.89%, Shenzhen Component down 3.52%, ChiNext down 5.79%, CSI 300 down 1.96%, STAR 50 down 2.78%, and Wind All A Index up 2.17% [1] - The STAR 50 index has seen a continuous decline from March to June, erasing the 12.95% gain from February [1] Group 2 - The new narrative logic of the Chinese market is becoming clearer, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, as evidenced by the CSI 1000 index rising over 10% [3] - New industry sectors such as stablecoins, DeepSeek, pet economy, innovative drugs, and robotics have shown significant activity, with gains exceeding 20% [3] - Financial policies are being strengthened, with structural tools being enhanced, leading to a positive accumulation of fundamental factors for banks [3] Group 3 - Global capital is increasingly focused on the Chinese market, with significant investments from overseas long-term funds, including a $50 million investment by a German pension fund [5] - Over 30 billion yuan has been added to Hong Kong-themed ETFs in the past month, indicating strong interest in the Hong Kong market [5] - Public funds are intensifying their focus on Hong Kong stocks, with many companies launching QDII products targeting this market [5] Group 4 - The short-term trend of the market is strong, with noticeable inflows of incremental capital, although the overall market profitability remains weak [7] - The A-share market has maintained stable trading activity under the management's policy to keep the capital market active [11] - The recent rebound in the Shanghai Composite Index has been primarily driven by financial stocks and resource anti-involution concepts [11]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96% on July 28 [6][7] - A total of 2,781 stocks rose, while 2,438 stocks fell, with 62 stocks hitting the daily limit up [8][9] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures saw a collective decline, with coking coal, glass, coke, soda ash, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate futures hitting the limit down [4] - Coking coal prices fell by 11% to 1,100.5 yuan/ton, while glass and soda ash dropped by 9% and 8.04% respectively [4] - The market sentiment weakened following new trading limits introduced by exchanges, leading to a significant withdrawal of long positions in coking coal [5] Policy Impact - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission issued measures to expand AI applications, including a 600 million yuan subsidy for computing power and a maximum 30% rent subsidy for AI computing resources [10] - This policy is expected to support companies in the AI sector, leading to a surge in related stocks such as Dazhu CNC and Chip Microelectronics, which hit the daily limit up [10] Pharmaceutical Sector - Innovative drug concept stocks were active, with companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Lian Huan Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit up [13] - Heng Rui Medicine announced a potential $12.5 billion licensing deal with GlaxoSmithKline, covering a clinical-stage respiratory drug and multiple candidates [13][14] Resource Sector - Resource stocks, particularly in coal and steel, experienced adjustments, with companies like Liu Steel and Shanxi Coking Coal seeing declines of over 5% [15][16]

| | | | | | | | HE BE ROVER FR | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/28 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 F03117750 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | - 1000 | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | 6 ...

Group 1: Strategy - The main contradiction in investor expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to changes in discount rates, with the decline in the risk-free rate being a key driver for the upward adjustment of valuations in the Chinese stock market in 2025 [2][4] - Investors should adjust their understanding of the main contradictions and increase their allocation to China [2] Group 2: Macro Overview - Progress in US-Japan trade negotiations has boosted global market sentiment, leading to a general rise in global stock markets [2][8] - The US real estate market remains weak under high interest rates and uncertainty, while manufacturing PMI has weakened but the service sector remains strong, indicating economic resilience [2][8] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Puyang's announcement of a strategic cooperation agreement with Greeenmei indicates an unexpected procurement scale of 500,000 tons, confirming customer recognition of active magnesium oxide [3][16] - The penetration in the nickel extraction field is expected to accelerate, and profitability may exceed expectations due to customer expansion [3][16] Group 4: Insurance Industry - The recent announcement of a new research value for life insurance has triggered a reduction in the preset interest rate, which is expected to improve the risk of interest spread losses [3][19] - Some insurance companies have announced plans to switch to new products in September, which is beneficial for improving interest spread risk [3][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" expectations are strengthening, suggesting attention to five major investment themes: 1. Polyester filament: The industry is expected to see a recovery in prosperity due to a high-quality development initiative and price increases driven by raw material costs and downstream recovery [5]. 2. MDI: The MDI market is characterized by high technical and capital barriers, with a concentrated competitive landscape. The report anticipates a shift in supply focus towards China due to aging overseas facilities [5]. 3. Industrial silicon and organic silicon: The report notes a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics for industrial silicon, while organic silicon may see coordinated production cuts as a new norm [5]. 4. Polyester bottle chips: A significant portion of the industry is expected to undergo production cuts, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits [5]. 5. Sucralose: The report highlights a collaborative pricing strategy among leading companies, which is expected to support price increases in the coming periods [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 4%, ranking 8th among 31 industry sectors [6][18]. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which is expected to significantly boost demand for chemical materials [6][31]. Product Price Changes - The report lists the top price increases for chemical products, including lithium carbonate and DMC, while also noting significant declines in products like hydrochloric acid [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, as well as industries facing supply constraints that may see price elasticity [7][15][16].

Group 1 - The report suggests that the bond market interest rates may have reached a peak after an unexpected adjustment, driven by three main factors: tight liquidity, rising inflation expectations due to "anti-involution," and the impact of a rising equity market on the bond market [4][7][11] - The analysis indicates that the tight liquidity is not a causal factor for the bond market adjustment but rather a synchronous relationship, with the central bank's recent operations showing an intention to alleviate the negative feedback loop [4][7][11] - The report anticipates that the inflation expectations driven by "anti-involution" will not persist for long, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unlikely to turn positive within the year, leading to a gradual calming of market expectations [4][7][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the equity market is expected to continue rising, but this does not necessarily imply an increase in interest rates. The upward momentum in the equity market will likely return to expectations of improved national governance and technological leadership in economic transformation [8][11] - The report recommends gradual participation in liquid interest rate bonds, such as 10-year government bonds yielding over 1.7% and 30-year government bonds yielding over 1.95%, while advising caution with less liquid credit bonds due to potential downside risks [11][12] - The report notes that the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.7%, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across various maturities [35][36][41]