Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions on dips or short-term trading; neutral on aluminum, recommended to go long on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; recommend shorting 01 contract and going long on 05 contract for soda ash [1][21][23][25] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias; bearish on dates, recommended for range trading with a bearish bias [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][41][43][45] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been confirmed, but the subsequent pace remains uncertain, with a moderate short-term boost to risk assets [5] - The coal industry is experiencing a "Golden September" market, with rising prices and increased market sentiment [8] - The glass market is expected to improve in the traditional peak season, with supply-side shutdown expectations and positive macro factors [10] - The copper market is affected by macro factors, with high prices weakening demand support, but there is still support from peak season demand and potential domestic policy adjustments [11] - The aluminum market is in a high and stable production state, with demand entering the peak season, but inventory accumulation indicates weak demand, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [12] - The nickel market is affected by macro and ore news in the short term, with a long-term supply surplus, recommended to short on rallies [17] - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak downstream demand in the off-season, with support for prices, recommended for range trading [18] - The precious metals market is expected to have support below due to weakening US economic data and concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical situation, recommended for range trading [18][19] - The PVC market has a weak supply-demand balance, with high inventory and uncertain export sustainability, recommended for range trading [22] - The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with downstream restocking before the National Day and expected alumina production in the far month, recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking rhythm and export situation [24] - The styrene market is expected to be volatile, with weak supply and demand expectations, recommended to pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [25] - The rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term, with increased supply and weak demand [27] - The urea market has weak production and sales, with increased enterprise inventory and decreased port inventory, recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant shutdown and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [28][29][31] - The methanol market is expected to be volatile, with supply recovering and demand weakening, recommended to pay attention to the start-up of methanol-to-olefin plants and inventory changes [31] - The polyolefin market is affected by supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, but terminal demand is improving, recommended to pay attention to downstream demand, Sino-US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [33] - The soda ash market is expected to fluctuate between expectations and reality, recommended to short 01 contract and go long on 05 contract [36] - The cotton market has positive expectations due to improved global supply and demand and peak season expectations, but there is pressure from increased new cotton production, recommended to prepare for hedging [37] - The PTA market has cost and supply-demand factors driving in opposite directions, with short-term price fluctuations, recommended to pay attention to the range of 4600 - 4950 [38] - The apple market is expected to be strong based on the firm prices of early-ripening fruits, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [38] - The date market has weak consumption and high prices, with pressure increasing, recommended for range trading with a bearish bias [40] - The pig market is under pressure due to increased supply and slow demand growth, but there are restrictions on price declines from potential government policies and holiday restocking expectations, recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [42] - The egg market has increased supply in the short term and large long-term supply pressure, recommended to short on rallies for near-month contracts and be cautious about shorting for short-term contracts [43] - The corn market has sufficient supply in the short term and downward pressure on prices during the listing period, recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [45] - The soybean meal market has sufficient arrivals in September - October and is restricted by state reserve sales, with cost support, recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [46] - The oil market has experienced a high-level correction, with limited downward space and potential for a rebound, recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [52] Summaries by Directory Macrofinance - **Stock Indices**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but the subsequent rhythm is uncertain. The A-share market may have some profit-taking on Thursday. The market volatility may further increase, and it is recommended to pay close attention to trading volume trends. Long-term bullish, recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continues to fluctuate, with yields hovering near important resistance levels. There is a lack of trend in the bond market, and most institutions prefer short-term operations. After the adjustment, the negative factors in the market are gradually fading, and the bond market does not have a basis for a significant decline. It is recommended to hold and wait patiently [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have driven up market sentiment, with rising coal prices and increased market activity. The investment strategy is to range trade [7][8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated and declined on Thursday. The fundamental supply and demand are still weak, but it is the traditional peak demand season in September - October. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the support level of the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: The glass market is expected to improve in the traditional peak season, with supply-side shutdown expectations and positive macro factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the support level of the 01 contract [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's remarks have affected the copper market. High copper prices have weakened demand support, and the market is expected to be volatile before the holiday. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips and trade cautiously [11] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and the production status of alumina and electrolytic aluminum. Demand is entering the peak season, but inventory accumulation indicates weak demand. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy or go long on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is affected by the Indonesian nickel ore event and the upcoming nickel ore approval work. The nickel market is in a state of surplus, but there is support from traditional peak season expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak downstream demand in the off-season, with support for prices. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The precious metals market is expected to have support below due to weakening US economic data and concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to the US interest rate decision [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market has a weak supply-demand balance, with high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to macro data, export situation, inventory, and upstream start-up [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with downstream restocking before the National Day and expected alumina production in the far month. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking rhythm and export situation [24] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to be volatile, with weak supply and demand expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [25] - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term, with increased supply and weak demand. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [27] - **Urea**: The urea market has weak production and sales, with increased enterprise inventory and decreased port inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant shutdown and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [28][29][31] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be volatile, with supply recovering and demand weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the start-up of methanol-to-olefin plants and inventory changes [31] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market is affected by supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, but terminal demand is improving. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to downstream demand, Sino-US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [33] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market is expected to fluctuate between expectations and reality, with an obvious surplus in production. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract [36] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, and the macro environment is getting better. However, the large increase in new cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [37] - **PTA**: The PTA market is affected by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the restart of production facilities. The cost and supply-demand factors drive in opposite directions, with short-term price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 4600 - 4950 [38] - **Apples**: The apple market is expected to be strong based on the firm prices of early-ripening fruits. It is recommended to range trade with a bullish bias [38] - **Dates**: The date market has weak consumption and high prices, with pressure increasing. It is recommended to range trade with a bearish bias [40] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig market is under pressure due to increased supply and slow demand growth, but there are restrictions on price declines from potential government policies and holiday restocking expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [42] - **Eggs**: The egg market has increased supply in the short term and large long-term supply pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for near-month contracts and be cautious about shorting for short-term contracts [43] - **Corn**: The corn market has sufficient supply in the short term and downward pressure on prices during the listing period. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [45] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market has sufficient arrivals in September - October and is restricted by state reserve sales, with cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [46] - **Oils**: The oil market has experienced a high-level correction, with limited downward space and potential for a rebound. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [52]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate during the upcoming monetary policy decision, with a low probability of an interest rate hike [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which are mostly in a rate-cutting or pausing phase, is notable, as the Bank of Japan has been increasing its benchmark interest rate [1] - Japan's macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, with GDP growth at 1.2% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, indicating a weak recovery influenced by U.S. tariff policies [2] Group 2 - The technical analysis of USDJPY indicates a long-term bearish trend, but a bottoming phase has begun since April 22, suggesting a potential rebound [4] - The recent candlestick pattern shows strong buying pressure, with a double bottom formation indicating a possible upward movement in USDJPY [4] - The projected rebound range for USDJPY is between 147.94 and 149.06 points, based on Fibonacci retracement levels [4]

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - ferrous metals morning report released on September 17, 2025, by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center [1] Group 2: Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 257, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3049. The LME inventory decreased by 1675 [1] - **Core View**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, breaking upward on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream start - up weakened, and it was in the stage of consuming finished product inventory. Macroscopically, copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - expansion. After the FOMC meeting next week, pay attention to the possible phased realization of bullish factors. The copper price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters. If there is a callback after short - term bullish factors are realized, consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 1500 [1] - **Core View**: Supply increased slightly, with imports of aluminum ingots providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. In the short - term, the fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to demand. Hold at low prices in the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium remained at - 60, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots increased by 30, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 [1][2] - **Core View**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. On the supply side, the domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some production resistance. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate. In the short - term, it can be used as a short - side configuration, and the internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2] Group 5: Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1950 [3] - **Core View**: On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level. On the demand side, it was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation in the domestic market and an increase in overseas warehouse receipts. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - aspect has rebounded. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils increased by 50, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coils increased by 50 [5][6] - **Core View**: On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6] Group 7: Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, and the LME inventory increased by 2225 [7] - **Core View**: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries was tight. On the demand side, the inventory of battery finished products was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The supply is expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000. In September, there is an expectation of a peak season, but the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 [7] Group 8: Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot import earnings decreased by 2200.06, the spot export earnings increased by 1949.49, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9] - **Core View**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Overseas, the import from Wa State was less than 200 metal tons in August, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase gradually after October. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuates. The LME inventory has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 33 [10] - **Core View**: This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Currently, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. In the short - term, the supply and demand in September and October are still in a tight balance state. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [10] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 400, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 400, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 139 [12] - **Core View**: This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, miners are not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also have the sentiment of holding prices. The current basis level has strengthened slightly, and the supply of large - discount goods has decreased. The current contradiction is that under the background of over - capacity, the resource side faces phased compliance disturbances. In the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. The price elasticity is high after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is realized, and the price has strong downward support before the disturbances are realized [12]

Report Information - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks and the upcoming Fed interest rate decision have strengthened short - term macro impacts. Overseas, the US cotton market shows a weakening trend with a decline in the weekly good - to - excellent rate, weaker weekly export data, and low net long positions of CFTC funds. In the domestic market, new cotton picking has started in some areas, and the demand side has a slight de - stocking of finished products, with seasonal recovery in the downstream weaving mills' operation rate and some rigid demand support [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market has average trading, weaker than the same period in previous years, with stable prices and some local discounts. The cotton fabric market has weak demand, and the home textile market has increased sales but poor order continuity and difficult price increases [7]. - **Macro and Overseas Factors**: Sino - US economic and trade talks are held in Spain, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision this week. The US cotton weekly good - to - excellent rate has decreased slightly, export data has weakened, and the CFTC fund net long position remains low, leading to a weakening trend in the overseas market [8]. - **Domestic Market**: Some domestic regions have started manual cotton picking, and mechanical picking will start next week. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress is 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past four years. The demand side has a slight de - stocking of finished products, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate has a seasonal increase, with rigid demand support [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate is 50% (compared to 53% last year and a five - year average of 49%), the picking rate is 9% (compared to 10% last year and a five - year average of 8%), and the good - to - excellent rate is 52% (compared to 39% last year) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various cotton futures spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and the total number of warehouse receipts, as well as currency exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee [16][17][20][26][28]

Group 1 - The core task remains to boost effective demand, highlighting the increasing necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter [1][8] - The economic growth rate for China in the first half of the year was 5.3%, achieved amidst challenges such as global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1][2] - The August data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in various economic indicators compared to July, suggesting a potential for policy intervention [2][3] Group 2 - The social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan in August, but this represents a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand [3][4] - Government bond financing has decreased, and the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters and months [5][6] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and real estate investment declining by 12.9% [6][7] Group 3 - The investment sentiment among enterprises remains subdued, correlating with the slow growth in fixed asset investment observed this year [4][6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with certain sectors like sports and home appliances performing well [7][8] - The necessity for structural monetary policies is increasing, with potential measures including the restart of government bond purchases to inject medium to long-term liquidity [8]

Economic Overview - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - The necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter is increasing, as indicated by the recent economic data [2] Financing and Credit - The growth rate of social financing decreased in August, with a total increment of 25,693 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [3] - The demand for credit remains weak, with new loans amounting to 6,233 billion yuan in August, down by 4,178 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4] - Government bond financing has also seen a decline, indicating that the effectiveness of active fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and manufacturing investment by 5.1%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [6][7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing investment in key industries, particularly manufacturing, to support economic recovery [7] Consumption Patterns - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, although certain sectors like dining faced challenges [7][8] - The recovery in consumption is expected to take time, and effective demand needs to be stimulated [8] Policy Recommendations - There is a growing need for the introduction of stable growth policies in the fourth quarter, with potential measures including the issuance of special government bonds and the use of policy financial tools [2][8] - Structural policy tools may be accelerated to support key industries and foreign trade, while fiscal policies may need to be intensified [8]

Economic Overview - The US GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.8% last year to 1.7% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 1.8% in 2026[7] - China's GDP growth is expected to improve from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, but may drop to 4.7% in Q4 2025 due to various economic pressures[46] Inflation and Monetary Policy - US PCE inflation is anticipated to rise from 2.4% in Q2 to 2.9% in Q4 2025, before decreasing to 2.4% in 2026[9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in late 2024, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%-3.5%[4] Asset Allocation Strategies - In the US, the recommended asset allocation includes overweighting commodities, standard allocation to stocks and cash, and underweighting bonds, with a bearish outlook on the dollar[4] - In China, the strategy suggests overweighting stocks, standard allocation to commodities and bonds, and underweighting cash, with a moderate appreciation of the RMB expected[5] Market Trends - The US stock market is entering a late bull market phase, with a focus on sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and industrials[4] - China's stock market is in the second phase of a bull market, with a focus on AI hardware, internet, and healthcare sectors[5] Debt and Consumer Behavior - The US consumer loan delinquency rate has reached historical highs, indicating increased financial pressure on low- and middle-income households[12] - China's household and corporate credit growth remains weak, despite an expansionary fiscal policy[87] Real Estate Insights - The US housing market continues to experience stagnation, with home sales and prices at historical lows due to high interest rates[15] - In China, the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, but new home sales in major cities are still lagging[55] Currency Outlook - The US dollar index is expected to weaken slightly, potentially dropping to 95 by year-end due to pressures from the White House on the Federal Reserve[42] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to be around 7.1 by the end of this year, with a slight appreciation of the RMB expected in 2026[88]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term trading liquidity is loose, and the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to oscillate upward, reaching 81,500 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is almost certain, but the continuous boost to copper prices is limited, and the "stagflation - like" environment restricts the scope of interest rate cuts. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, with medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions providing bottom support. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price showed a low - level oscillating trend. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand pull is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the short - term price will oscillate around the peak - season expectation and actual consumption realization, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of the price rising and then falling if demand improvement is less than expected [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated at a high level. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, and the demand has a slight recovery. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of improved interest rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, but Shanghai zinc is relatively weak. The supply is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market is generally strong. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the interest rate cut rhythm remains unchanged, and domestic policies are favorable. Industrially, the stainless steel demand is weak, while the price of nickel sulfate is rising. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated upward. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and domestic policies are positive. The supply pressure exists, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Policy windows boost the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually clear, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract price center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1.89% to 54% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The regenerated aluminum alloy operating rate decreased by 0.35% to 53.41% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing operating rate increased by 5.98% to 56.06% [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel product was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 478,100 tons [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 72,450 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [17].

Consumption Data - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slowing from 3.7% in the previous month[2] - The retail sales growth was negatively impacted by a 2.3% decline in tobacco and alcohol sales, which reduced the overall growth rate by 0.03 percentage points[7] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly stimulated sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, while oil and petroleum products saw negative growth due to global economic conditions[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market and low consumer confidence[2] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 8%, with personal mortgage loans down 10.5%[28] Investment Trends - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, slowing by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 2%, but the overall investment environment remains challenging due to reduced government spending and ongoing market adjustments[30] - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 5.1%, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in industrial investment[36] Economic Outlook - Industrial production growth for January to August was 6.2%, maintaining stability but facing challenges from insufficient domestic demand[39] - The urgency for macroeconomic adjustments has increased, with potential policy focuses on interest rate cuts and increased issuance of government bonds[44] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and unexpected credit events[47]