市场可能正在低估美国长期的通胀风险。德意志银行一份最新研究报告指出，尽管关键的通胀预期指标表面上保持稳定，但深入分析揭示市场对 未来通胀的真实担忧已接近十年来的最高水平，这背后与关税威胁及对美联储独立性的担忧紧密相关。 华尔街见闻文章显示，美国6月核心CPI连续5个月低于预期，市场通胀预期指标也显得相对温和。德银分析指出，近期，衡量市场长期通胀预期 的关键指标——5年期、5年期远期盈亏平衡通胀率（5y5y breakevens）和通胀互换（inflation swaps）——虽然已升至近十二个月的高位，但整体 仍处于受控区间。 然而，德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti及其团队在7月17日发布的报告中警告称，这种表面的平静具有欺骗性。该行分析发现，一 旦剥离油价波动对这些指标的强烈影响，一个更能反映真实通胀担忧的"风险溢价"指标便显现出来，且已攀升至2014年以来的最高水平附近。 被油价"扭曲"的通胀预期 潜在风险溢价升至十年高位 衡量市场长期通胀预期的关键指标很大程度上是受油价走势影响。报告指出，自2014年中期油价暴跌以来，现货油价与5年/5年远期盈亏平衡通胀 率及通胀互换等长期通胀 ...

Group 1 - Global capital markets are experiencing a new upward trend, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing strong performance as investor risk appetite increases [1] - The core catalyst for this trend is the rising expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, driven by political pressure from Trump on Powell [1] - Historical data suggests that once a rate cut occurs, both equity assets and gold will benefit from increased liquidity, although short-term pullback risks for gold should be monitored [1] Group 2 - A-shares have broken through the 3500-point mark, with potential to challenge the previous high of 3700 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index approaches the 25000-point level [2] - The market is witnessing a rotation in sectors, with humanoid robots, Nvidia's supply chain, innovative pharmaceuticals, and brokerage stocks showing strong performance [2] - Consumer sectors, particularly traditional brands like liquor, are seeing adjustments that may present buying opportunities, while new consumption stocks are showing signs of overvaluation [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polycrystalline Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean (MO1), Pulp [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Cotton, Manganese Silicon, Pure Metal, Soda Ash, Corn (C01), Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Silicomanganese, Coking Coal, Coke, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Corn (C09), Live Pig, Energy Chemicals (including various sub - items), etc. [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the market's increased willingness to allocate equity assets and positive market sentiment [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest rate risk prompted by the central bank restricts the upward space [1] - Gold is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term due to market uncertainties, while the strengthening dollar may suppress silver prices [1] - Copper prices have a risk of supplementary decline, aluminum and alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and zinc prices are under pressure [1] - Nickel and stainless steel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - Tin prices have short - term support but a risk of a downward - moving center in the long term [1] - Some commodities like polycrystalline silicon are bullish, while others such as manganese silicon are bearish, and most commodities are in an oscillating state due to various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment [1] Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: The reaction of the recent stock index to negative news is significantly dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets increases, and market sentiment is boosted by "anti - involution" and real - estate policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market uncertainties remain, and the price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1] - **Silver**: The strengthening dollar may suppress the price [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation in August bring a risk of supplementary decline in copper prices [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, inventory rises, and prices oscillate weakly; alumina has a good profit, with rising production and inventory, and its price also oscillates weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The weakening of interest - rate cut expectations and the gradual realization of inventory - accumulation expectations put pressure on zinc prices [1] - **Nickel**: The interest - rate cut expectation weakens, and the price oscillates. There is a short - term opportunity to short on rallies, and long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The interest - rate cut expectation falls, raw - material prices weaken, inventory increases, and attention should be paid to production and raw - material changes [1] - **Tin**: Short - term fundamentals are supported, but there is a risk of a downward - moving price center in the long term [1] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreases in the north and increases in the south, demand from polycrystalline silicon increases marginally but may decrease later, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Bullish due to no supply reduction and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply does not decrease, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and market sentiment is high [1] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and prices oscillate [1] - **Iron Ore**: Commodity sentiment is good, but fundamentals are marginally weakening, and prices oscillate [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Production increases slightly, supply - demand is relatively balanced, and prices oscillate [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish due to expected international demand growth, an upward - adjusted reference price in Malaysia, and short - term exhaustion of negative factors [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Australian rapeseed may enter the domestic market, Sino - Canadian trade frictions continue, and domestic rapeseed inventory is low [1] - **Cotton**: There are trade - negotiation and weather premiums in US cotton in the short term, and macro - uncertainties are strong in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the weakening of crude oil may affect the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop inventory is tightening, but downstream procurement is cautious. New - season corn has a good yield and lower production costs [1] - **Soybean**: There are expectations of increased Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and the import cost supports the price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by strong commodity sentiment and low valuation, it is expected to rise in the short term [1] - **Live Pig**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ is expected to increase production, and short - term consumption in Europe and the US is strong, so prices oscillate [1] - **HK and BR Rubber**: HK has a weakening downstream demand and strong supply - release expectations; BR rubber has cost - end support from partial device overhauls [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: PTA supply contracts, but crude oil is strong, and polyester downstream load remains high; ethylene glycol has a large expected arrival volume later, but overseas supply may contract [1] - **Short Fiber and Styrene**: Short - fiber factories have more overhauls and low warehouse - receipt registration; styrene device load recovers, and the basis weakens [1] - **Fertilizer**: Domestic demand is average, but export expectations improve in the second half of the year [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: PVC has a good market sentiment but faces seasonal supply pressure; chlor - alkali has a repaired comprehensive profit and more expected warehouse receipts [1] - **LPG**: Crude - oil support is insufficient, it is in the seasonal off - season for demand, and the price oscillates weakly [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is in a pattern of stable reality and weak expectations, with the freight rate expected to peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend [1]

【技术分析】 现货黄金（伦敦金）：目前黄金短期均线于3337构成支撑，其它各周期指标也呈现多头排列，不过布林 带整体向下开口，macd指标双线以死叉下扬形态，上行势能表现不充足，4小时级别整体看来下行空间 有限，多头仍具备反弹动能。对于下方重点关注3320一带支撑，由于前两个交易日黄金走势出现反复， 此处将再次具备防守能力，之上坚守多头突破近期高点，若意外下破，则说明空头还将延伸下探3310- 3300区域，而这里作为3300关口显示的强支撑。至于上方*重点关注3358-3360区域，多头若能突破，将 有望直接试探3377强压，反之，则会继续保持震荡。 现货白银（伦敦银）：从白银价格走势的角度来看，白银/美元仍然向上倾向，但在过去三天里有所盘 整，仍粘在 38.00 美元的水平。每日收盘价高于该水平为上行复苏打开了大门。以相对强弱指数 （RSI） 衡量的动量表明买家处于控制之中;然而，RSI 斜率保持平坦，表明缺乏可能促使交易者建立多 头/空头头寸的催化剂。为了继续看涨，白银必须突破 38.50 美元的水平，让买家测试 39.00 美元。一旦 清除，下一个是 39.50 美元和 40.00 美元大关。相反，如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with various institutions raising their price forecasts due to increased investment demand and tightening physical supply [2][4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, both reaching multi-year highs [2][4]. - The performance of palladium and copper has also been notable, with increases of over 36% and 36% respectively, while gold has risen by 26% [2]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been strong, with a 19.54% increase, ranking first among 31 sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Trends - There has been a surge in sales of silver products, such as silver bars and coins, alongside a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3]. - Citigroup has raised its price targets for platinum and silver, predicting silver could exceed $40 per ounce in the coming months due to tightening supply and rising investment demand [4]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further boost gold prices by 10% to 15% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with all sub-industries showing positive growth [6]. - The precious metals sector has led the market, with specific ETFs linked to precious metals showing significant year-to-date gains [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of investment demand in driving silver prices, indicating a strong correlation between investment demand and price movements [5]. Group 4: Strategic Metals and Policy Risks - The article discusses the political and policy risk premiums associated with trading strategic metals, highlighting the need for a long-term view on supply chains and national security [7].

据分析，关税对通胀传导的滞后性主要由多个因素导致。首先，关税的实施是分阶段的，且由于运输存在时间差，对价格产生显著影响通常需要数月之后。 企业在面对关税压力时，采取了贸易重构等策略，如增加在美国国内的采购，以降低实际的关税负担。部分行业还通过囤积库存的方式，优先消耗已有存 货，暂时避免了将关税成本转嫁给消费者。 近期，关于美国关税对通胀的影响成为了市场关注的焦点。自年初以来，美国显著提高了对全球的关税水平，然而这一政策对通胀的传导效应并未立即显 现，引发了多方讨论。 值得注意的是，除了关税政策外，移民政策的滞后影响以及"大美丽"法案的宽松效应也可能在四季度后与关税传导一起推高通胀水平。这些因素共同作用， 将使得2026年货币政策的不确定性上升。 具体而言，8月1日生效的新一批关税函可能在10月左右对美国通胀产生新一轮扰动。进入2026财年，"大美丽"法案的宽松效应将进一步显现，加之移民政策 收紧带来的短期劳动力供给短缺，可能在四季度进一步推高通胀水平。 同时，与2018-2019年相比，当前企业对市场需求的感知更为悲观，因此在传导关税成本时表现得更为谨慎。这些因素共同作用，使得关税对通胀的传导效 应在初期并不 ...

丹麦银行预计全年净利润为210亿至230亿丹麦克朗，市场预期为217.9亿丹麦克朗。 ...

整理 投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观与基本面共振 矿价短期偏强运行 逻辑：近期市场逐步接受特朗普 TACO 交易，中美关税影响边际减弱，随着美联储降息预期 升温，市场风险偏好趋向于积极，对大宗商品估值水平形成提振；国内货币、财政政策提前发 力，存量政策托底，增量政策仍存在较强预期，宏观面对铁矿石价格存在积极作用，短期宏观 预期主导价格走势，叠加基本面预期扭转，宏观面与基本面共振。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：近期外矿发运进入阶段性回落周期，其中澳洲 BHP、FMG 矿山财年冲量后在 7 月 份上旬进入检修期，巴西发运保持相对中位偏高水平；短期到港量预计高位回落，即近端供给 压力将保持相对减弱，现实端供给压力减弱，但近期外盘价格回升至 100 美金/吨，若价格持续 高位或刺激非主流矿供应增加。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内日均铁水量止降回升，本期日均铁水产量 242.44（环比+2.63），当前钢 厂盈利率水平较高且高炉利润水平相对可观，叠加短流程全面深度亏损、铁水性价比仍较高， 预计短期铁矿石需求仍保持韧性，国内高需求对价格形成较强支撑。 原材料：程 鹏 库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][3][4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall volatility of oil prices has decreased, lacking market drivers, and oil prices are oscillating repeatedly. Most energy and chemical products' markets have unclear unilateral drivers and generally follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rebounded. WTI August contract rose $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel (1.75% increase), Brent September contract rose $1.00 to $69.52 per barrel (1.46% increase), and SC2508 closed at 524.1 yuan per barrel, up 10.5 yuan (2.04% increase). Last week, US crude oil inventories declined, and Iraq's crude oil production decreased by about 200,000 barrels per day. Chevron's production in the largest US oil field is approaching a plateau. Entering the hurricane - prone season, its impact on oil prices needs attention. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX light - sweet crude oil futures decreased by 10.8% [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan per ton. As of the week ending July 14, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventories decreased by 1323000 barrels (5.35%) week - on - week, and Fujairah's fuel oil inventories decreased by 682000 barrels (6.65%) week - on - week. The short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil for range - bound oscillations [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.3% at 3,628 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 26.18%, down 0.82% week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.34%, down 0.14% week - on - week; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 33.72%, down 0.88% week - on - week. The short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% yesterday; EG2509 closed at 4,372 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. As of July 17, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% (up 1.37% from the previous period), and the PTA load reached 79.7%. Polyester prices are oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro environment and crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 14,665 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 95 yuan per ton to 12,585 yuan per ton. In June 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 703000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The price has returned to an oscillating trend. Iran's plant operating load has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has increased to a relatively high level, with limited subsequent increments. Downstream profits have recovered, and subsequent operations will remain stable [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and there is little room for further decline. The agricultural film market will strengthen seasonally, and the market is expected to gradually trade on demand recovery, with prices expected to fluctuate narrowly [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price in the East China PVC market changed little on Thursday. The overall supply has decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further. The upside rebound space is limited [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of multiple energy and chemical products on July 17 and 16, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. It also explains the calculation methods and data sources [9] 3.3 Market News - Signs of tightness in the crude oil spot market supported oil prices. Last week, US crude oil inventories declined, and Iraq's crude oil production decreased due to drone attacks. Chevron's production in the largest US oil field is approaching a plateau. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers warned that Trump's preference for Fed interest - rate setting may lead to a surge in inflation expectations and higher long - term borrowing costs [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Presents the historical closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: Displays the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32] - **Inter - term Contract Spreads**: Shows the historical spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [40][42][45] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Illustrates the historical spreads and ratios between different products, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][61][62] - **Production Profits**: Presents the historical production profit trends of products like ethylene - glycol, polypropylene, etc. [66][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [71] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry and many achievements [72] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical abilities, and has won many awards [73] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [74]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that strong retail sales and initial jobless claims data have weakened market expectations for a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, while core retail sales rose by 0.5%, better than the expected 0.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, below the market expectation of 235,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates may remain cautious due to inflation pressures and the recent economic data, with a potential economic growth slowdown to 1% and an unemployment rate rise to 4.5% [3] - The upcoming CPI data will be crucial; if the core CPI year-on-year rate rises to 2.9% or higher, expectations for rate cuts may be further delayed, supporting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Conversely, if inflation pressures ease, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September or December, which could boost U.S. stocks and silver prices [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that silver prices are maintaining support at 37.3, with expectations of upward movement after a recent adjustment from a high of 39 [4] - The silver price is projected to have upward potential, with a focus on the resistance level around 38.6, indicating possible formation of two peaks or a single peak at this level [4]