兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

原油经历贸易战暴跌及修复行情后短期处于相对稳态,重点关注后期供需超预期的变化。上周美国汽油表需大 幅走强,亦有消息称尼日利亚丹格特炼厂渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解受到提振并带动海外炼 化利润出现修复,关注北美驾驶旺季临近油品需求超预期好转的持续性。供应端俄乌、伊核、巴以均处地缘缓 和大趋势中,5/50PEC+会议亦存在继续加快增产的可能,供给增量、地球风险缓和或成为边际变化氢点，继续 持有低成本偏空期权组合对冲油价下行风险。 【與東簽紙號無裝 俄罗斯上周燃料油发运蛋有所回升,新加坡燃料油库存持续增加,FU裂解转为震荡,后续关注FU裂解到达高位 后强势能否持续;尼日利亚丹格特炼厂20万桶/天的渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解走强对主产品 低硫燃料油裂解构成提振。今日LU5月令约涨幅高达5.9%. 仓库仓单增加31000吨,关注LU近月强势能否持续。 【沥青】 五一节前市场备货需求增加,周度沥青出货量为44.2万吨,环比上升7.5万吨,同比上升高达17.3万吨。截至4 月24日,样本炼厂库存环比下降7.1万吨至86.2万吨;样本社会阵环比下降1.3万吨至193.5万吨,厂库与社库均 去库。供需 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2505 合约收于 77600 元，跌幅 0.5%，沪铜指数增仓 4180 手至 53.41 万 手。 2.现货：铜价震荡下行但仍处高位，下游接货需求有所减弱，成交重心有所下调。上海报 升水 175 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 10 元/吨，天津报贴水 10 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。广东 地区报升水 225 元/吨，持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1.截至 4 月 24 日周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 1.48 万吨至 18.17 万吨，较上周四 下降 5.1 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 王悦 北京摄影报道 在经历了去年牛肉市场持续的"跌跌不休"后，牛肉价格终于迎来了反弹时刻。 "这是一次供需关系错配后的'修正反弹'。从供给端看，过去一年，由于牛价持续低迷，许多养殖户被迫'割肉止 损'，大量能繁母牛遭到淘汰，导致基础产能受损。这种'去产能'在短期内释放了大量存栏，压低了市场价格；但 一旦库存消化完毕，新的供给难以跟上，价格就必然反弹。而从需求端看，尽管整体消费增速放缓，但牛肉作为 结构性升级的代表，仍具备一定韧性，特别是在餐饮复苏、连锁快餐扩张、新中产消费崛起的共同作用下，呈现 出'高位刚需'的特点。因此，这一轮价格上涨并非偶然，而是供需重新寻价过程中的必经阶段。"知名商业顾问、 企业战略专家霍虹屹接受《华夏时报》记者采访时说道。 值得一提的是，从供需的角度来看，"缺牛不缺肉"是业者普遍的共识，但仍然需要持续观察2023年6月至2025年春 节前，因为牛价低迷导致的能繁母牛超量宰杀的水平，进一步确认"缺牛"程度。 孙建伟表示，从2025年2月份至今，500斤—700斤小公牛平均价格在15元/斤左右，养殖户的补栏成本属中高水 平，补栏并 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines significant events over the past decade that have influenced gold prices, highlighting the interplay of global economic cycles, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment [21] - In 2016, Brexit and Trump's election led to a surge in safe-haven demand, with global central bank gold purchases increasing by 15% to 430 tons [2] - The trade war between the US and China from 2018 to 2019 weakened global economic expectations, resulting in gold prices rising over 30% from their 2018 lows, with gold ETF holdings reaching record highs [4][5] Group 2 - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a global economic shutdown, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero and initiate unlimited quantitative easing, leading to a more than 15% increase in gold prices for the year [6][10] - In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve pushed gold prices close to previous highs, with central bank gold purchases reaching 1,136 tons, the highest in 55 years [7] - Looking ahead to 2024, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive global central bank gold purchases to 247 tons per month, with gold prices projected to rise nearly 30% [11] Group 3 - Key factors influencing gold prices include monetary policy and interest rate environments, where rate hikes suppress gold prices while rate cuts tend to boost them [14] - Geopolitical events such as Brexit and the Russia-Ukraine conflict trigger safe-haven buying, leading to short-term price increases [16] - Central bank gold purchases have been on the rise, with a 63% year-on-year increase in 2024, providing long-term support for gold prices [17]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 17 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】周三（4 月 16 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指七连涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.26%，收报 3276.00 点；深证成指跌 0.85%，收报 9774.73 点；创业板指跌 1.21%，收报 1907.11 点。沪深两市成交额 11119 亿，较 昨日小幅放量 347 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 16 日震荡趋强，收盘 3772.82，环比上涨 11.59。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 16 日焦炭加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1562.9 元，环比下跌 7.1。 4 月 16 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 945.2 元，环比下跌 14.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：近期环保限产约束有所放松，焦企保持开工动能，高频数据显示开工率以及焦炭日均产量环比小幅增 加。需求方面，高炉延续复产，铁水产量增加，供需双增，焦企出货顺畅。 焦煤：上周部分前期停产煤矿复产，带动上游开工率回升，国内煤炭整体宽松格局持续。进口方面，蒙煤单 日通关车数维持在千车高位，进口供应充分。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【棕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - end supply of meal products is under pressure, and the prices of meal products continue to correct. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean meal price may face a certain downward pressure. The rapeseed meal price is expected to be affected and run at a low price difference. The monthly spread of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, and the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited. It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach for trading strategies [2][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures rebounded due to the postponement of tariff hikes. The domestic soybean meal futures declined as the import cost of Brazilian soybeans continued to fall, and the near - end export pressure in Brazil increased. The performance of soybean meal futures was stronger than that of rapeseed meal futures. The near - month spread of soybean meal fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month spread of rapeseed meal declined due to concerns about increased supply in the future [2] Fundamental Analysis International Market - The near - end pressure in the international soybean market is relatively limited. The US soybean exports are in good condition, and although the recent crushing performance is average, the overall demand is good. Brazil's sales enthusiasm has increased due to the rise in domestic soybean prices and exchange - rate changes, and the supply has improved. The export inspection data support the US soybean export demand, and Brazil's crushing data also provide obvious support. In the long - term, the rebound in US soybean prices is beneficial to the improvement of planting profits, but the slow progress of new - crop sales still requires attention [3] Domestic Market - The domestic market is currently in a state of tight supply and demand, with low soybean arrivals and crushing volumes, but the downstream demand is also average. The spot market has shown a phased improvement. As the subsequent soybean arrivals increase and the downstream may have a certain inventory - building motivation, the market is expected to remain stable. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.0301 million tons, the operating rate was 28.96%, the soybean inventory was 2.9043 million tons, an increase of 17.15% from last week and a decrease of 12.05% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 579,100 tons, a decrease of 22.58% from last week and an increase of 93.03% year - on - year. The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened significantly recently, and the inventory - reduction speed of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has gradually slowed down. It is expected that rapeseed meal will operate weakly and remain stable in the near - end [4][5] Macro - environment - Trump postponed the tariff hikes on other countries, but the subsequent negotiations will continue. At the same time, China and the US imposed additional tariffs on each other again. The EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods that were previously subject to US tariffs, and the soybean tariff will be implemented from December 1 [5] Logical Analysis - The rebound of the real has led to a further decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, weakening the upward momentum of soybean meal. Although the loss of US soybean planting profits may lead to a decrease in the planting area in the long - term, the recent rebound in US soybean prices and the long time until the next planting season make it difficult to support a significant rise in the soybean futures. Therefore, soybean meal may face a certain downward pressure, and the rapeseed meal futures are also expected to be affected. The monthly spread of soybean meal lacks driving factors and is expected to fluctuate, while the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Buy call options (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around potential supply shortages of toilet paper in the U.S. due to proposed tariffs on imported wood and pharmaceuticals by former President Trump, which could disrupt the supply of pulp necessary for toilet paper production [2][3] - The previous toilet paper crisis was linked to panic buying during the pandemic, highlighting how external factors can lead to sudden demand spikes and supply chain disruptions [3] - Trump's tariff policy is seen as a form of trade protectionism aimed at encouraging domestic production, but it risks harming consumer interests and could lead to unintended consequences such as trade friction [6] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could significantly increase the cost of imported wood, which is essential for pulp production, leading to higher prices for toilet paper or reduced production [2][6] - The stable demand for toilet paper juxtaposed with potential supply constraints could create a scenario of scarcity, reminiscent of previous toilet paper shortages [2][3] - The situation illustrates the complexities of trade policies, where attempts to protect domestic industries may inadvertently affect essential consumer goods [6][8]