那么，日本真的能做到吗？ 近日，日本与美国的贸易问题几乎影响到了美日两国的关系，日本对美国现在有种"我拿你当亲哥，你 拿我当表弟"的感觉。 在关税问题上，特朗普一点也不给日本这个盟友面子，对日本加关税后，就等着日本率先低头。 日本首相石破茂在外交事务上本就谨慎，现在涉及到了日本的利益，他也干脆不藏着掖着了，直接对美 宣布，要让日本在一些领域上脱离对美国的依赖。 日本这次选择和美国硬刚，也是明确了一点，日本要摊牌了，不愿意受屈辱了。 关税大棒下的屈辱 特朗普这次对日本下手确实有些突然，因为日本虽然在贸易上让美国无法满意，但是态度上还是很愿意 讨好美国的。美国4月份下达所谓的"关税政策"后，日本低头最早，也是最想和美国完成谈判的。 但是特朗普这次显然抛开了与日本的盟友关系，只谈利益。特朗普非常明白，别看日本这个国家不大， 但产生的经济的能力是非常强的，若想继续干预日本，那么就要抓住日本一点利益。 不过，美国这次显然有些失算了，石破茂这个首相，并不像前几任日本首相那样，无条件的倒向美国。 石破茂明白，若这次在关税上对美国妥协，那么以后美国可能还会要更多的利益。7月9日，石破茂一句 话把现在美日之间的问题总结了下来。 ...

日本央行计划在7月31日政策会议上考虑上调通胀预测，以反映食品和能源价格上涨。 媒体报道称，央行官员可能将当前财年通胀预测从2.2%上调，主要因为大米等食品价格涨幅超出上一份季度展望报告时的预期。 受此消息影响，日本20年期国债收益率当日上涨6个基点至2.56%。 关税影响暂不纳入考量 知情人士表示，央行将通过筛选所有可获得的数据和信息来最终确定展望。在制定预测时，央行不会考虑特朗普上周宣布的25%全面关税的影 响，因为贸易谈判仍在进行中，关税水平可能发生变化。 央行认为需要在实际数据中观察关税政策的具体影响，这将成为未来货币政策决策的重要参考因素。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂、韩国总统李在明的信件，宣布美国将自2025年8 月1日起对所有日本和韩国输美产品征收25%的关税。 日本首相石破茂8日表示，对美方宣布增税感到"遗憾"，目前双方尚未达成协议，是因为 日本没有轻易让步。 食品价格推高通胀预期 据知情人士表示，大米价格是推动央行考虑上调通胀预测的主要因素。截至5月份，大米价格在过去一年中翻了一番，已成为重要的政治议题。此 外，中东地缘政治紧张局势 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Driven by recent events, the short - term price of precious metals is expected to remain strong. However, close attention should be paid to the US precious metal import tariff policy, as the failure of the tariff policy may lead to a correction in precious metal prices and cross - market spreads. For short - term trading, the support levels for gold are 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. London silver has broken through the resistance in the 37 - 37.3 area, and the upside may extend to the 40 area. The strategy of buying on dips is still recommended [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, precious metal prices generally showed a strong performance, with significant increases in silver and palladium. The premium of precious metal prices in the US market over London spot prices widened significantly, possibly due to concerns about additional tariffs on other key imported minerals after Trump unexpectedly imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports. The prices of palladium, platinum, and silver in the US market have reached new highs. Attention should be paid to the future direction of Trump's import tariff policy on precious metals [1]. - Regarding trade tariffs, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs was postponed from July 9 to August 1. Starting from August 1, the US will impose different tariff rates on various countries, such as 25% on Japan, South Korea, etc., 30% on South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, etc., and 50% on Brazil [1]. - In terms of the Fed's monetary policy, Fed Governor Waller said that a rate cut in July could be considered, and he supported continuing the balance - sheet reduction and increasing the proportion of short - term assets [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund holdings: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14758.5 tons [2]. - Short - term fund holdings: According to the CFTC持仓 report as of July 8, the non - commercial net long positions in gold increased by 988 contracts to 202968 contracts, with long positions increasing by 3054 contracts and short positions increasing by 2066 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions in silver decreased by 4879 contracts to 58521 contracts, with long positions decreasing by 1968 contracts and short positions increasing by 2911 contracts [2]. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 1143 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 135.7 tons to 15393.7 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 3.13 tons to 24.59 tons, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1303.6 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory (as of the week of July 4) decreased by 3.33 tons to 1319.9 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening [3]. - Events: - Domestic: On Monday at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025; at 15:00, it will hold a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025. On Tuesday at 10:00, it will hold a press conference on the national economic operation in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Overseas: There are multiple speeches by Fed officials and the Bank of England governor throughout the week, and the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions on Thursday. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3][4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table also presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity market indicators, including the US dollar index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil, etc. [18].

Group 1: China Market Focus - The current "anti-involution" policies may adopt different approaches across various industries, with a focus on supply-side reforms and market mechanisms to encourage balance in supply and demand [10][12][19] - Overseas investors are showing high interest in the Chinese market, with notable attention on companies like Kehua Data and SMIC, although actual capital inflow may take time to materialize [13][15][20] - The upcoming third quarter is expected to see a resurgence in IPOs for technology companies, with AI and military sectors identified as key areas for structural investment opportunities [18][19] Group 2: US Market Focus - Core commodity prices are anticipated to reflect tariff impacts more significantly starting mid-year, with a focus on the performance of leading technology stocks like Nvidia and Meta Platforms [26][32][40] - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more dovish stance will depend on economic data fluctuations, particularly in light of inflationary pressures and economic slowdown [28][29][36] - The earnings outlook for US stocks is showing signs of divergence, with technology and telecommunications sectors expected to remain strong despite broader economic challenges [37][40] Group 3: Korea Market Focus - New tariffs are expected to disrupt the economy, with significant implications for capital market reforms initiated by changes in commercial law [44][46] - Consumer confidence is improving, which may support the domestic economy, while export levels have remained robust due to preemptive export activities earlier in the year [46]

回顾上周，特朗普关税政策再度扰动市场。美股全线下挫，道指周跌1.02%，纳指周跌0.08%，标普500 指数周跌0.31%。本周，市场迎来经济数据与财报的双重考验。美国6月CPI、PPI数据将相继公布，同 时华尔街大行将拉开美股财报季序幕。 特朗普宣布最新关税政策后，投资者再度涌向避险资产，推动黄金价格反弹。周一亚市早盘，现货黄金 一度站上3370美元/盎司，为6月23日以来首次。消息面上，特朗普周六宣布，自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨 西哥进口的商品分别征收30%关税。 据央视新闻报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间7月13日表示，将把对美国关税的反制措施暂停期 延长至8月初，欧盟一直明确表示倾向于与美国通过协商达成解决方案，这一立场依然不变。 一周前瞻：6月CPI数据即将公布 展望本周，美股市场再度迎来多重考验， 美国6月CPI、PPI数据将相继公布，美股财报季也将正式拉开 序幕。 周二，美国将公布6月CPI数据，市场将据此判断当前通胀情况。目前市场预计CPI年率将会从5月的 2.4%升至2.7%，核心CPI从2.8%反弹至3%，原因在于企业开始向消费者转嫁与关税相关的进口商品成 本。 汇丰银行认为，未来几个月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. For example, gold is expected to move up in a volatile manner, while silver is predicted to break through and rise. Copper prices are under pressure due to weakening spot markets, and zinc is bearish in the medium - term [2][8][12]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner with a trend intensity of 1. Yesterday, Comex gold 2510 rose 1.12% to 3370.30, and London gold spot rose 0.95% to 3355.37 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise with a trend intensity of 1. Comex silver 2510 soared 3.85% [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot weakness is pressuring prices. Trump's potential expansion of 50% copper tariffs to semi - finished products may impact the US grid and data center construction. The trend intensity is 0 [2][12][14]. - **Zinc**: Bearish in the medium - term with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of both domestic and international zinc futures declined slightly, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons [2][15][16]. - **Lead**: Supported by peak - season expectations. The trend intensity is 0. LME lead inventory decreased by 3000 tons [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening. Although the prices of the main contracts of domestic and international tin futures rose slightly, the trend intensity is 0 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and a high virtual - to - physical ratio. The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. The trend intensity is 0. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating. The trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it shows a strong - side volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0. The price of imported ore such as Carajás fines (65%) rose slightly [2][41]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it shows a strong - side volatile trend with a trend intensity of 1. The price of JM2509 rose 1.78% [2][55][57]. - **Coke**: A round of price increases has started, and it shows a strong - side volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0. The price of J2509 rose 1.50% [2][55][57]. - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing with a volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0 [2][58][60]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamental situation is an oversupply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to supply - side changes. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][38][40]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about the复产 in the origin, and the market is driven up by macro - sentiment [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish, and the weather is favorable, so it may show a weak - side volatile trend [2][5].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/14 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 2025/07/10 15 306 84589 21729 -302.05 513.15 45.0 62.0 -0.95 108100 40950 2025/07/11 -35 346 81462 23307 -220.79 417.21 45.0 62.0 -21.57 108725 40975 变化 -50 40 -312 ...

旧金山联储主席戴利在2025年7月11日前后多次就美国经济前景发表观点。 戴利明确表示，2025年仍可能有两次降息，并提到"考虑在秋季实施降息"。 下跌至3320.00站稳后做多，目标3350.00 现货白银 戴利对特朗普政府的关税政策持相对乐观态度，认为其对通胀的冲击可能较预期温和。 她指出，关税可能导致物价水平一次性上涨，但不会显著推高长期通胀预期。这一观点与美联储6月会 议纪要中"关税影响可能被推迟而非消失"的判断部分一致，但更强调企业适应能力。 她提到"秋季实施降息"，可能对应美联储9月或12月会议。这一表述与市场预期（9月降息概率约60%） 基本吻合，但需等待通胀数据验证。 交易策略： 现货黄金 她认为美国通胀正逐步迈向2%的目标，尽管进程较慢，但未出现反弹风险。例如，企业通过协商分摊 关税成本、调整利润空间等方式，减少了终端消费者的价格压力。 美国第一季度GDP环比下降0.5%，消费支出疲软，但劳动力市场保持韧性（6月非农就业增加14.4万， 失业率3.7%）。戴利认为经济"增长和消费放缓但未减弱"，降息旨在预防经济进一步下行而非应对危 机。 美联储6月会议纪要显示，内部对降息存在分歧，但戴利的观 ...

Report Overview - The report is issued by Green大华 Futures Research Institute on July 14, 2025, focusing on the morning session notice of precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The prices of gold and silver in the precious metals sector are in a state of oscillation. The price of COMEX gold is expected to range between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce, and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract is expected to operate between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Key Information Summary Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to 3370.3 dollars per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to 39.08 dollars per ounce. At night, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.38% to 9232 yuan per kilogram [1] ETF Holdings - As of July 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.17 tons from the previous day to 947.64 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 131.41 tons from the previous day to 14758.52 tons [1] CFTC Data - As of the week ending July 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts [1] Tariff Policy - On July 12, local time, Trump announced on social media that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. On July 9, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Logic - US fiscal deficits and tariff policies have increased inflation concerns. The US dollar index rebounded slightly on July 11 and then fluctuated narrowly horizontally. Gold prices rose on July 11, and silver prices increased significantly [1] Trading Strategy - Gold prices are oscillating, with COMEX gold operating between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract operating between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]

Core Points - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [1] - China's imports from the EU averaged over 15 billion yuan daily, totaling 2.82 trillion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Private enterprises in China have seen continuous growth in imports and exports for 21 consecutive quarters, with a total of 12.48 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, up 7.3% year-on-year [3] - The decline in import growth is attributed to uncertainties in international trade policies and falling prices of bulk commodities, with significant price drops in crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans [4] - China will implement zero tariffs for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, contributing to double-digit growth in imports from these nations [5] - China's imports and exports have remained above 10 trillion yuan for nine consecutive quarters, with June's trade volume reaching 3.85 trillion yuan, a 5.2% increase [6] - Trade with the United States saw a decline of 9.3% year-on-year, with exports down by 9.9% and imports down by 7.7% [7] - Teams from China and the U.S. are working to implement the outcomes of the London framework [8][9] - China has successfully increased trade with over 190 countries and regions, with significant growth in trade with emerging markets, including a 14.4% increase in trade with Africa [10]