Market Overview - A-shares experienced volatility on February 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.25% at 4065.58 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73% [1] - The overall market turnover decreased to 2.16 trillion yuan, marking a continuous six-day decline in trading volume [1] Sector Performance - The chemical and new energy sectors led the market, while the pharmaceutical sector showed relative resilience. Consumer goods experienced a pullback, and technology continued to be sluggish [1] - The chemical ETF (516020) saw a significant inflow of 199 billion yuan, with a daily gain of 2.37% after reaching a peak increase of 3.45% during the day [2][5][6][8] Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward cycle, driven by increased demand for lithium batteries and key chemical materials [9][10] - Major stocks in the chemical sector, such as Enjie Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Longsheng, saw significant gains, with some stocks rising over 6% [6][9] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector demonstrated resilience, with the non-ferrous ETF (159876) reversing early losses to close slightly up by 0.18% despite fluctuations in international gold prices [3][11] - Over 100 billion yuan of main funds flowed into the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating strong investor interest [11] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both closing down over 1% [3] - Despite the overall decline, there was significant buying activity from southbound funds, with purchases reaching 133.7 billion HKD, 249.8 billion HKD, and 148.6 billion HKD over three days [4] Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with the innovative drug ETF (520880) rising by 2% during the day, driven by strong earnings forecasts from key companies [15][16] - Notable performers included Innovent Biologics, which projected a revenue increase of approximately 134% by 2025, and several other companies expecting significant profit growth [16][18] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the chemical sector remains a promising investment opportunity, particularly in leading companies and price recovery products [10][22] - For investors looking to capitalize on the pharmaceutical sector, the innovative drug ETF (520880) and the medical ETF (159137) are recommended for their strong growth potential and coverage of key industry players [21][22]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the glass and soda ash industries by Guotai Junan Futures, dated February 8, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Both the glass and soda ash industries are rated as mid - term oscillating markets [2][3] Core Views - **Glass**: It is a mid - term oscillating market. Short - term pressure comes from forward premium, inventory, and off - season factors. Mid - term, the bullish drive is anti - deflation, anti - involution, and potential production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate between rising due to production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. In 2026, it may be weak in the first half and stronger in the second half [2] - **Soda Ash**: It is also a mid - term oscillating market. The core pressure drivers are supply surplus, forward premium, and potential downstream production cuts. It is supported by cost when falling and restricted by supply surplus and glass industry production cuts when rising. Its rhythm follows glass but with lower volatility [3] Summary by Directory Glass Supply - As of February 5, 2026, there are 296 glass production lines (199,500 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 211 in production and 85 cold - repaired. The daily output is 149,800 tons, a 0.79% decrease from the 29th. The average weekly开工率 is 71.86% (unchanged), and the average capacity utilization is 75.61% (a 0.09 - percentage - point decrease). The daily loss is 49,680 tons (a 2.48% increase), and the weekly loss is 340,600 tons (a 0.35% increase) [2] - In 2025, 35 lines were cold - repaired with a total daily melting capacity of 21,330 tons, and 22 lines were ignited with a total daily melting capacity of 15,010 tons. There are potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting capacity of 14,490 tons and potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting capacity of 9,370 tons. There are also potential cold - repair lines with a total daily melting capacity of 9,420 tons [6][7][8][9][10] Demand - As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.3 days, a 7.9% increase from the previous period and an 86.4% increase year - on - year. As the Spring Festival approaches, most processing plants are in the rush - work period, with the order execution days increasing slightly, mainly around 10 days [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 53.064 million heavy boxes, a 0.95% increase from the previous period and an 11.77% decrease year - on - year. The inventory days are 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period. Inventory trends vary by region [2] Price and Profit - Prices in most areas are stable. The price in Shahe is around 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton, in Central China's Hubei is around 1,080 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 1,160 - 1,260 yuan/ton. The basis strengthens due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of petroleum coke is about 45 yuan/ton, while the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels are about - 168 and - 68 yuan/ton respectively [15][18][19][21] Photovoltaic Glass - The market transaction has weakened recently, and it is expected to continue. The price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter (unchanged), and the price of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.0 yuan/square meter (a 1.39% decrease). The inventory may increase seasonally, but it may improve after the second quarter [36][38][39][43] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The supply of soda ash decreased slightly this week. The weekly output is 774,300 tons, a 1.12% decrease. The comprehensive capacity utilization is 83.25%, a 0.94% decrease from last week. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance [3][51] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.5811 million tons, a 2.39% increase from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash is 835,000 tons (a 69,000 - ton increase), and the inventory of heavy soda ash is 746,100 tons (a 300,000 - ton increase). Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 15.85% [3][56] Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe is 1,130 yuan/ton, and the market price fluctuates slightly. Some light and heavy soda ash prices in the northern region decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 29 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 88 yuan/ton [63][66][71] - There are several planned and under - construction soda ash projects, including Jinshan Chemical, Xiangheng Salt Chemical, Zhongyan Salt Industry Phase I, and Ningxia Risheng [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda market is expected to experience low - level fluctuations in the short term, with a strong expectation of cost increase in the future. The PVC market is expected to show weak fluctuations [5][6]. - For caustic soda, the 03 contract faces significant delivery pressure, and the weak spot market situation is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the decline in liquid chlorine prices in the later period will lead to cost increases and large - scale production cuts in the far - month contracts. For PVC, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival [5][7]. - The main incremental market for caustic soda in 2026 is exports, but it also faces structural adjustments. PVC exports are expected to weaken in the long term due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [18][143]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Core Contradiction and Export - **Core Contradictions** - The short - sellers' main logic includes high supply and high inventory, continuous alumina production reduction expectations, new production capacity in the next year, and near - month warehouse receipt delivery pressure. The long - sellers' main logic includes policy drive, cost support, multi - asset linkage, overseas plant shutdowns, and capital drive [10]. - The three core contradictions are weak production reduction willingness on the supply side, expanding but profit - affected demand, and the structure adjustment of the export market [10]. - **Export Situation** - In 2025, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 4.1087 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The proportion of China's caustic soda exports to Indonesia has been increasing, but it was affected by new production capacity in Thailand in the second half of 2025. The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, and the export profit has also changed. The 50 - 32 caustic soda price difference is favorable for caustic soda [18][23]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production and Inventory** - The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above is 87.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 471,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.41% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97% [37][40]. - **Production Capacity Expansion** - In 2026, caustic soda production capacity will continue to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3%. The total planned new production capacity is 2.94 million tons [45]. - **Cost and Profit** - The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,075 yuan. The price of liquid chlorine has weakened, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited. The profits of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform have declined [49][53]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina Demand** - In the first half of 2026, alumina production capacity will be put into operation intensively, with an expected annual new production capacity of 13.9 million tons. However, the alumina industry is currently experiencing a decline in production, an increase in inventory, and a loss in profit, which has a negative impact on caustic soda demand [72][73]. - **Other Industries' Demand** - The paper pulp industry is in the off - season, with compressed terminal profits. The viscose staple fiber industry has stable operation, while the printing and dyeing industry has a decline in operation. The water treatment industry has an increase in operation, and the ternary precursor industry has an increase in production [82][94][96]. 3.4 PVC Core Contradiction and Spread - **Core Contradictions** - The short - sellers' main logic includes high supply and high inventory, weak domestic demand, and a slowdown in export growth. The long - sellers' main logic includes policy drive, cost support, multi - asset linkage, overseas plant shutdowns, and capital drive. The three core contradictions are high supply and high inventory, low profit but no large - scale capacity elimination, and a large far - month premium in futures [103][104]. - **Price Spread** - The PVC basis has weakened, and the monthly spread has also weakened [105]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply** - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week is 79.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88%. In 2026, except for the release of the production capacity of Jiahua, there is no new production capacity for PVC. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is at a low level but has not reached the cash - flow cost [112][116][118]. - **Demand** - Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and downstream enterprises have low inventory - building willingness. Exports are expected to weaken in the long term due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. PVC downstream industries will face a decline in operation during the Spring Festival [7][143]. - **Inventory** - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, but the social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The warehouse receipts have declined but are still at a high level [121][147].

Group 1 - The chemical industry is showing clear signs of a cyclical turning point, with policies aimed at reducing excessive competition accelerating supply-demand improvements [3][28] - The basic chemical index has rebounded strongly, closing at 8447 points as of February 6, 2026, representing an increase of approximately 47.9% compared to the beginning of 2025 [3][13] - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reached 4066 points as of February 5, 2026, up about 6.3% from the low of 3825 points on November 5, 2025 [3][14] - The valuation of the chemical industry is recovering but remains at historically low levels, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.60 as of February 6, 2026, up about 20% from 2.17 on December 16, 2025 [3][20] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry has turned negative since June 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [3][23] Group 2 - The North Exchange has several cyclical-related companies in the chemical new materials sector, including polyurethane, organic silicon, pesticides, PVC, petrochemicals, and soda ash [3][34] - Key companies in the North Exchange include Yinuowei, Jilin Carbon Valley, Jinhua New Materials, Yingtai Biological, Anda Technology, Jiaxian Co., and Deer Chemical, which are essential links in the industry chain [3][34] Group 3 - The North Exchange chemical new materials sector experienced a decline of 3.39% in the week from February 2 to February 6, 2026 [4][36] - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1520.89 points, with a weekly decline of 0.70% [4][36] - The best-performing stocks in the North Exchange chemical new materials sector for the week included Gebijia (+7.52%), Bingyang Technology (+5.28%), and Yinuowei (+4.23%) [4][42] Group 4 - Recent announcements include the change of control at Kaide Quartz and Bingyang Technology's inclusion in the Sinopec supplier list for acid fracturing materials [5][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cost support for steel prices has weakened, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The "Three Red Lines" constraints on the real estate market have been relaxed, improving market expectations and creating a generally favorable macro - environment [5][6] - Policy expectations have resurfaced, with the government emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition in enterprises and promoting the improvement of product quality [8] 3.2 Black Industry Chain - Steel mills' winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, and high iron ore inventories are suppressing the futures price. The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the inventory is healthy, but the decline in cost may drag down steel prices slightly [5][9][11] - The upward drive for black commodities depends on cost - driven factors such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - The downward drive is the release of high - inventory liquidity of iron ore, which will lead to the decline of the spot market and then the futures market [5] 3.3 Rebar Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3220 (-30) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3077 (-51) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 143 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 47 (+2) yuan/ton [18] - The rebar market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [14] 3.3.2 Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low [22] - It is the traditional off - season, and rebar demand has declined [23] 3.3.3 MS Weekly Data - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak, and the inventory is healthy [24] - The production and inventory of long - and short - process rebar show certain seasonal characteristics [25][27] 3.3.4 Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 136 (+7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 134 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 32 (-68) yuan/ton [31] 3.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3251 (-37) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 1 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 (+5) yuan/ton [38] - The hot - rolled coil market also shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [34] 3.4.2 Demand - It is the traditional off - season, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. However, the profit window for exports has opened, leading to a rebound in exports [39][40] 3.4.3 MS Weekly Data - The inventory of hot - rolled coils has been successfully reduced, and the production remains at a low level [46][47] 3.4.4 Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 3 (+17) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 158 (+19) yuan/ton [52] 3.5 Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates [58][59][61][62][64] 3.6 Cold - Rolled and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [65][66]

格隆汇2月8日丨中国银河证券表示，在当前A股市场趋势下，"轻仓持股过节"是一种审慎且符合历史规 律的合理策略，既规避了节前市场缩量调整的波动风险，又保留了节后春季行情的参与机会，尤其适用 于当前政策预期已部分兑现、业绩验证尚未启动的过渡阶段。在配置机会上，建议关注两条主线。主线 一，供需格局改善与行业盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资产，配置逻辑 依然清晰，建议关注有色、基础化工、钢铁、水泥、建筑材料、金融等板块。主线二，全球百年未遇之 大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，半导体、人工智能、新能源、军工、航空航天 等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

Group 1 - The short-term performance of A-shares before the Spring Festival may influence the market after the holiday, with historical data showing that in 16 years since 2010, there were 9 instances where the Shanghai Composite Index rose or fell in the first five trading days before the festival and then moved in the opposite direction on the first trading day after the festival [8][2] - Economic and profit expectations during the Spring Festival may improve, with anticipated favorable data for travel and consumption, as well as a potential rebound in real estate sales due to low base effects and strong policy support [9][2] - Liquidity is expected to remain loose during the Spring Festival, with the central bank likely to increase net injections to counter seasonal tightening, and stock market funds may maintain a certain level before accelerating back after the holiday [9][2] Group 2 - After a short-term adjustment, technology growth and cyclical sectors are expected to outperform, supported by policy and industry trends, with historical patterns indicating that leading sectors may regain strength post-adjustment [10][3] - Current observations suggest that technology growth and certain cyclical industries are likely to remain dominant, driven by supportive policies and ongoing industry trends, particularly in commercial aerospace and AI [10][3] - The consumption sector's short-term rebound may be a result of valuation recovery, but its sustainability is uncertain due to weak consumer confidence and the absence of a profit turning point [11][3] Group 3 - Industry allocation recommendations suggest a balanced approach towards technology growth, certain cyclical sectors, and consumption, with specific industries like automotive, military, beauty care, machinery, and communication expected to perform well in 2025 [11][3] - The current sentiment towards growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, and computing is relatively low, indicating potential for future gains [11][3] - Suggested low-entry allocations include sectors with upward policy and industry trends, such as electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), media (AI applications, gaming), and healthcare [11][3]