Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the chemical industry, focusing on the caustic soda (烧碱) and PVC (聚氯乙烯) markets, highlighting the challenges and dynamics affecting these sectors [1][2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Caustic Soda Market Dynamics**: The caustic soda market is significantly influenced by liquid chlorine prices. When liquid chlorine prices are negative, it adversely affects company profits, potentially leading to reduced supply of caustic soda [1][4]. - **Regional Performance Variations**: There are notable regional differences in the caustic soda market across China. For instance, Shandong's caustic soda is primarily used in alumina production, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang focus more on non-alumina applications [2][5]. - **PVC Industry Losses**: The PVC industry is currently facing overall losses, particularly in the calcium carbide method of PVC production. Despite some profits from caustic soda, the oversupply situation leads to poor profitability [1][11]. - **Weak Demand and Inventory Pressure**: The PVC market is experiencing weak demand, with declining exports and moderate domestic demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors, resulting in increasing inventory levels [1][12]. - **Impact of Liquid Chlorine on Production**: The production of caustic soda is closely tied to liquid chlorine, which cannot be stored long-term. If liquid chlorine prices remain low, it will continue to negatively impact caustic soda supply [4][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Seasonal Characteristics**: The caustic soda market exhibits seasonal characteristics, with October typically being a peak season, while the period around the Lunar New Year often sees a downturn due to supply-demand mismatches [8]. - **Cost Disparities Across Regions**: Different regions in China face varying production costs, affecting profitability. For example, Xinjiang has lower costs, allowing for some profit even in a challenging environment, while regions like East and North China face higher costs and greater pressure [14]. - **Export Challenges**: China's PVC exports, particularly to India, are subject to anti-dumping measures and certification requirements, leading to fluctuations in export volumes and increased domestic inventory pressure [15]. - **Future Policy Impacts**: The caustic soda and PVC industries may face future impacts from energy efficiency audits and carbon emission management policies, which could affect production costs and operational viability [20][23]. - **Market Strategies**: Recommendations include structural strategies to manage market volatility, such as engaging in spread trading between different contract months and utilizing options for risk management [9]. Conclusion - The caustic soda and PVC markets are currently under significant pressure due to weak demand, high inventory levels, and fluctuating production costs. Regional disparities and potential policy changes further complicate the outlook for these industries. Investors should remain vigilant regarding market dynamics and consider strategic positioning in low-valued segments when prices are favorable [18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Phosphate Industry Industry Overview - The phosphate industry in China is primarily concentrated in Hubei, Yunnan, and Guizhou, with Hubei accounting for approximately 50 million tons of production, representing a significant portion of the total output [1][2] - The industry has faced increasing mining costs due to a decline in the quality of domestic phosphate rock, with costs rising by 15% to 20% [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Environmental Policies**: Stricter environmental regulations have limited the production capacity of small to medium-sized phosphate mines, extending the approval time for mining licenses and increasing financial pressure on companies [1][3] - **Import and Export Trends**: Since 2018, China has become a net importer of phosphate rock, with imports significantly increasing in 2024 while exports have decreased by nearly 70% [1][4] - **Phosphate Fertilizer Demand**: The phosphate fertilizer sector is the largest consumer of phosphate rock, accounting for about 75% of total demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate in the new energy sector indirectly increases the need for phosphoric acid, although the direct usage remains low [1][5] - **Future Capacity Additions**: New phosphate rock production capacity is expected to be added mainly in 2025 and 2026, with projections of 15 million tons and 12 million tons respectively. However, actual demand may not meet this supply [1][6] Additional Important Content - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: The profitability of the phosphate fertilizer industry is heavily reliant on the prices of raw materials like phosphate rock and sulfuric acid, with an estimated industry profit margin of around 7% in 2024 [1][11] - **Energy Efficiency Standards**: By 2026, phosphate fertilizer production companies are required to meet specific energy efficiency benchmarks, which may lead to the elimination of some outdated production capacities [1][12] - **Impact of Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The growth in demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to drive the need for phosphoric acid, but its overall impact on the total demand for phosphate rock is minimal [1][13] - **Market Price Trends**: Current market prices are high, ranging from 800 to 1,000 yuan per ton, influenced by tight supply conditions. Future price trends may see a decline due to cyclical market behaviors [1][8][14] - **Export Dynamics**: The export of phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain stable in 2025, with production anticipated to exceed 18 million tons, driven by increased demand in the new energy sector [1][20] Conclusion The phosphate industry in China is navigating a complex landscape shaped by environmental regulations, shifting demand dynamics, and market pressures. The interplay between domestic production capabilities and import needs will continue to influence pricing and profitability in the coming years.

Q&A 2025 年上半年玻璃市场的整体情况如何？ 2025 年上半年，玻璃市场呈现出季节性和周期性特征，需求与供给博弈维持 弱势调整格局。第一季度由于需求淡季，供需矛盾突出，多数光伏玻璃厂库存 达到高位。第二季度价格温和上涨后又走弱，供需环境未见明显改善。尽管政 策有利好，但房地产施工数据下滑显著，对浮法玻璃的需求减少，去库压力和 利润压力持续存在。 当前浮法玻璃的产能和库存情况如何？ 截至目前，全国共有 305 条生产线，总产能为 12.46 亿重量箱，其中在产的约 210 条，总日熔量为 15.8 万吨，相比去年同期减少 8%左右。白玻产品主流平 均价格在 5 月份为 1,271 元，同比下降 25%。6 月份价格进一步下滑至 1,230 元左右，但 7 月份有所反弹。截至 7 月 24 日的一周内，国内浮法玻璃 玻璃行业近况跟踪及"反内卷"专家解读 20250728 摘要 浮法玻璃市场受房地产下行影响显著，建筑需求下滑导致高库存和低利 润，但汽车、家电等领域需求增长有限，难以抵消房地产的负面影响。 2025 年 5 月白玻平均价为 1,271 元，同比下降 25%，7 月小幅反弹至 1,240 元。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the government's economic strategy is to "fully expand domestic demand," with significant policy signals expected in the second half of the year [2] - The State Council's meeting on July 16 emphasized the implementation of key policies to strengthen domestic circulation, including expanding investment in emerging service industries and optimizing the old-for-new consumption policy [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of measures to boost consumption, with a total of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds allocated in July and planned for October to support these initiatives [2] Group 2 - The central economic work conference and this year's government work report highlighted the need to address "involution-style" competition, with "anti-involution" becoming a key policy topic for the second half of the year [3] - The government aims to promote the construction of a unified national market and regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [3] - Policies to stabilize the real estate and capital markets have been emphasized, with expectations for more supportive measures in the housing market, including easing restrictions in first-tier cities and optimizing real estate storage policies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main line of "anti - involution" in the stock index futures market is switching. The market has expectations for stimulus policies, and new main lines such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies are emerging. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions in IM [3][9]. - In the stock index options market, the volatility has shown an inflection point, and the probability of short - term volatility decline is relatively high. It is advisable to build positions for short - volatility strategies. The certainty of volatility strategies is slightly stronger than that of directional strategies [4][10]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment has improved, but there are still many short - term disturbing factors, and the market is expected to be volatile [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with narrow - range trading and shrinking volume. The market risk preference was at a relatively high level, and the main line showed signs of switching [3][9]. - **Reasons for Main - line Switching**: Firstly, the China - US tariff negotiation is in progress, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies. Secondly, the "anti - involution" theme has cooled down, and the coal and steel industries in the stock market led the decline on Monday. Thirdly, new main - line directions are emerging, such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies [3][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in IM with a half - position [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Volatility**: Last week, the "anti - involution" policy supported the volatility, but this week, the volatility of most varieties showed an inflection point in the morning and closed down in the afternoon. The short - term probability of volatility decline is high [4][10]. - **Sentiment Index**: Weak liquidity and the expiration of all current - month contracts suggest that trading - type funds are relatively conservative in the short term [4][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on short - volatility strategies in the short term and continue to hold the medium - term covered - call strategy [4][10]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the sentiment in the bond market improved. The T main contract opened higher and then fluctuated [4][10]. - **Reasons for Improvement**: Firstly, most commodity futures fell, and the speculative sentiment in the market cooled down. Secondly, the central bank's net investment in the open - market operation at the end of the month improved the capital situation. Thirdly, there was an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect in the intraday trading [4][10][12]. - **Short - term Outlook**: There are still many disturbing factors in the bond market, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [4][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on the basis convergence of the TL main contract, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic indicators to be announced this week include the US July ADP employment number, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and China's July official manufacturing PMI [14]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Industry**: The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, consolidate the industrial economy, and promote the development of emerging technologies [14]. - **Parenting Subsidy**: The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced, providing subsidies for infants under 3 years old [15]. - **Trade Talks**: China hopes to promote the stable and healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations through dialogue and cooperation [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions to monitor data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data is not provided in the summary part.

可转债方面：建议关注反内卷板块处于相对低位，未定价或定价尚未充分的细分。另外，我们判断成交 量较高的背景下，题材如核聚变、脑机、固态电池、机器人等赛道可能有轮动到的机会。转债估值继续 上升，各平价转债估值涨至历史高位。背后在于增量资金持续增配转债资产。我们建议关注剩余期限较 短的低溢价率或冷门转债，若权益情绪持续较好，当高估值转债定价充分后，资金或外溢至这些相对低 拥挤度的资产。 海外方面：PMI所显示可能通胀会有所延续，截至9月会议还有2次通胀数据可供检验，考虑到目前票委 表述相对保守，9月实现降息的概率仍不高，10年期的利率预期应进一步上移至4.42-4.50%区间（当前 为4.40%）。以目前释放的关税信来看，若理解各关税税率为本轮关税战终值的最高值，则结果可能最 终落在一个略高于预期，但不至于进入衰退的区间，如若如此后续走向可能要更加关注FOMC票委的态 度，判断降息节奏。 机构指出，经过上周大调整后，长久期国债迎来交易价值。 反内卷引发的减产措施落地，分析认为，未来需求是否配合并推升实际通胀，需要观察四季度和明年一 季度表现，届时利率也有再度下行至低点的可能性。信用债方面，债券利率上行是否会持续需要 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market atmosphere is continuously optimistic due to the resonance of favorable factors such as the peak season and the "anti - involution" news. The coal price is expected to maintain strong operation in August [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Market Situation - The domestic thermal coal demand has a seasonal rebound as it enters the critical period of peak - summer coal consumption. Some positive news such as "anti - involution" has fermented, spreading an optimistic market atmosphere and driving up coal prices [4]. Supply Side - As of the period ending on July 18, the daily average output of raw coal from 462 sample mines nationwide was 5.697 million tons, a slight increase of 10,300 tons per day compared to the end of June [4]. - Steel Union data shows that in the first two weeks of July, the seaborne coal arrival volume in China was 10.864 million tons, equivalent to a daily arrival of 776,000 tons, a significant improvement from 608,000 tons per day in June [4]. Demand Side - In July, the coal consumption of power plants increased seasonally. As of July 17, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.419 million tons, a weekly increase of 271,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.911 million tons, a weekly increase of 360,000 tons [4]. Inventory Side - iFind data shows that as of July 24, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.097 million tons, a weekly increase of 112,000 tons [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive waiting; Treasury bonds - take profit, expect a weakening trend [6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - expect a strong - side oscillation; Coking coal and coke - expect an oscillatory trend [8][9][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - mainly wait and see; Nickel - short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [13][14][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - expect an oscillatory trend; Soda ash - try short positions with light positions; Caustic soda - expect an oscillatory trend; Styrene - expect an oscillatory trend; Rubber - expect a strong - side oscillation; Urea - expect an oscillatory trend; Methanol - expect an oscillatory trend; Polyolefins - expect a wide - range oscillation [21][23][25] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - expect a strong - side oscillation; Apples - expect a strong - side oscillation; Jujubes - expect a strong - side oscillation [33][34][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - expect a strong - side oscillation; Oils - expect a strong - side oscillation [37][39][42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different futures sectors are expected to have different trends, with some in an oscillatory state, some showing a strong - side or weak - side trend, and investors are advised to make corresponding trading decisions according to different situations [6][8][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index**: Affected by factors such as the US Treasury's borrowing plan, bond auctions, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and domestic policies, the index is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see defensively [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks". Attention should be paid to whether subsequent policies can boost demand. It is recommended to take profit, and the market is expected to weaken [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the price drop on Monday, the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. Considering macro - policies and industrial supply - demand, it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - policies and supply - demand, the price has adjusted downward. Although there are concerns about future supply surplus, the current support from the steel and coal markets is still strong, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a slow supply recovery and cautious demand. The coke market has a tight supply - demand balance. Both are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see neutrally [10][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, domestic consumption seasons, and economic recovery expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [13] - **Aluminum**: Due to changes in the price and supply of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Nickel**: With an oversupply in the long - term and weakening support at the mine end, it is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Although the supply - demand gap is improving, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to have support and is recommended for range trading [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by trade negotiations, economic data, and interest rate expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and policy - driven market, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [21][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slow growth rate. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract may have support in the peak season. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is favorable. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Rubber**: Affected by raw material prices, inventory, and macro - emotions, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a short - term decline [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory pattern is neutral. It is expected to be weak first and then strong [29] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to face a certain correction [30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by macro - emotions and cost factors, the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the price range of different contracts [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: After the price increase, the inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the price is over - estimated. It is recommended to try short positions with light positions [32][33] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply - demand relationship has changed. Affected by market sentiment and supply - demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly [33] - **Apples**: With low inventory, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in a high - level range [34][35] - **Jujubes**: Affected by the growth situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area, the price is expected to be stable and strong in the short - term [35] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: With supply - demand pressure, the short - term is near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts and wait and see for the far - month contracts, and consider arbitrage opportunities [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand may increase seasonally, but the long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contracts and wait for buying opportunities for the far - month contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the mid - long - term supply is tightening. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by weather and supply - demand, and the mid - long - term has a supply gap. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as palm oil production and export, soybean growth, and rapeseed supply, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][48]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-29 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至 历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1204元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1223元/吨，基差为-19元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6189.60万重量箱，较前一周减少4.69%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：政策利好有所消退，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水平，下游阶段性补库，玻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global trade situation is stabilizing as the US reaches trade agreements with major economies, leading to a high - risk appetite in the market, a stronger US dollar index, record - high US stocks, and price adjustments in various commodities [2][4]. - In China, the introduction of a parenting subsidy system is expected to boost rural birth rates and consumption. Market sentiment has shifted after the exchange introduced risk - control measures, and prices are back to being driven by fundamentals. There is a need to be vigilant about short - term market adjustments and to focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs and keep global tariffs at 15 - 20%. The US and China are negotiating to extend the tariff and export - control truce for 90 days. Many countries are seeking tariff concessions from the US. The US is increasing pressure on Russia, causing oil prices to rise by over 2% [2]. - Domestic: The central government has introduced a parenting subsidy system, with each child receiving 3600 yuan per year until the age of 3. Market sentiment has changed after the exchange's risk - control measures, and the stock market is experiencing a volume - shrinking shock. There is a need to be cautious about short - term market adjustments and focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices continued to decline on Monday. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan, the EU, and China, and the US - EU new trade agreement has alleviated trade - war concerns. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but anticipates a possible rate cut in September. Short - term precious - metal prices are expected to be weak, but the downside is limited [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper slightly declined, and the London copper faced resistance at the 10,000 - dollar mark. The market expects that Chile may get a copper - tariff exemption from the US, causing a significant drop in US copper prices. First Quantum's copper production in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. The copper price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade talks [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum declined, and the London aluminum was flat. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar index, and the aluminum social inventory increased. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and inventory trends should be monitored [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures decreased significantly. The market sentiment continued to decline, and the futures contract saw a large - scale reduction in positions. The supply is stable recently, and the consumption side is cautious. Alumina is expected to be in a stalemate and fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the fundamentals remained weak. High prices inhibited downstream purchases, and inventories increased. The zinc price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade talks and domestic policies [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The supply of lead is increasing marginally, but the consumption improvement in the peak season is insufficient, and inventories have slightly increased. The lead price is under pressure but supported by costs, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the consumption in the off - season was poor. The supply increased while the demand was weak, and inventories increased for two consecutive weeks. The tin price is expected to adjust at a high level, but the adjustment space is relatively limited [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined significantly. The supply is in a contraction trend, and the demand is weak overall. The futures price is expected to adjust in the short term to seek lower support [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the carbonate - lithium futures price was weak, while the spot price rose significantly. The market is affected by anti - involution policies, and the short - term price is mainly driven by sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated. The tariff risk is cooling down, but the domestic anti - involution policy is still uncertain. The terminal market is weak, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and domestic policies need to be monitored [18]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated weakly during the day and opened higher at night. The acceleration of sanctions against Russia and the improvement of the macro - sentiment are pushing up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [19]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. Spot trading declined, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron - ore futures fluctuated at a high level. Overseas shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. The demand remains resilient, and the market is in a weak balance. The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, bean and rapeseed meal futures declined. The good growth conditions of US soybeans, Argentina's reduction of soybean export tax rates, and the increase in domestic bean - meal inventories are factors affecting the market. The domestic bean - meal price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm - oil futures rose, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in July, and the export demand decreased. The palm - oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]