有色金属日报 2025-12-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn LME 铜现货供应预期收紧，嘉能可下调 2026 年铜生产指引中值，美国 ADP 就业人数弱于预期，美元 指数走弱，铜价拉涨，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 2.72%至 11448 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 90760 元/ 吨。LME 铜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to continue the two - way fluctuation pattern of "weak US dollar and stable RMB", with the core fluctuation range between 7.05 - 7.10. The RMB appreciation rhythm will be relatively mild, and the two - way fluctuation characteristics will be more obvious. Some institutions predict that the US dollar - RMB exchange rate may gradually approach 7.025 by the end of December [4]. - The short - term profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises is under pressure and is likely to maintain a weak shock pattern. In the medium - and long - term, the profitability of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a gradual repair channel in 2025 [2]. - Stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the balance between long and short forces [6]. - For treasury bonds, medium - term long positions can be continued to hold, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. - The container shipping European line futures price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game between the expectation of resuming navigation and the price - holding actions of shipping companies [8]. - For precious metals, in the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise, and in the short - term, the price elasticity is increased [16]. - For base metals such as copper and aluminum, the prices are affected by factors like the increase in LME copper cancelled warrants, the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations, and the improvement of macro - sentiment, showing different trends [17][19]. - For black commodities, the prices of steel products may gradually increase in shock, and iron ore prices will maintain a high - level shock pattern [23][27]. - For energy and chemical products, the oil price is in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term; other products have different trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [33][35]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different varieties such as pigs, oilseeds, and oils are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather, showing different trends [77][78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US ADP data unexpectedly declined, with employment decreasing by 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM services PMI expansion rate reached the fastest in nine months, with the price index at a seven - month low and the employment index at a six - month high. The new Fed Chairman Hasset is likely to be appointed, and bond investors have warned the US Treasury [1][5]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0661, up 51 points. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people, the lowest since March 2023. The short - term RMB - US dollar exchange rate is expected to be in a two - way fluctuation pattern [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 76.532 billion yuan. The US ADP data made investors almost certain that the Fed would cut interest rates next week, but the impact on the market was limited. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [4][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: T, TF, TS fluctuated and closed up, while TL continued to decline. The open - market reverse repurchase was 7.93 billion, with a net withdrawal of 13.4 billion. The money market was loose. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, and medium - term long positions can be continued to hold [6][7]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures price of the container shipping European line continued to fluctuate. The market focused on the game between the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea and the price - holding actions of shipping companies in late December. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [8][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium were mainly driven by investment attributes, showing a shock - upward trend. The Fed's December interest rate cut probability was about 89%. Long - term platinum ETFs increased, while palladium ETFs decreased [13]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver were in a shock pattern. The US ADP data supported the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In the medium - and long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise [14][16]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose sharply due to the large increase in LME copper cancelled warrants and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations. The short - term copper price is expected to remain high [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai aluminum was shock - upward, mainly driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be shock - upward [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a shock - upward trend. The ADP data strengthened the interest rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc may shrink, and the demand is in the off - season [20]. - **Tin**: The tin price rose driven by funds. The short - term supply is tight, and the interest rate cut expectation is strong. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [20][21]. - **Lead**: The lead price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply of the lead smelting end decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [21][22]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were shock - upward. The overseas macro - sentiment was warming up, and the market expected policy support. However, the iron ore valuation was high, and there was a risk of decline [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rose first and then fell. The short - term fundamentals improved, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern [26][27]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal price was under pressure, and the coke price may face a decline. The 01 contract of coking coal can hold short positions, and the 05 contract can be considered for long - term allocation [29][30]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were shock - downward. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high [31][32]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The oil price was in a game between geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals, showing a downward shock trend in the medium - and long - term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [33][35]. - **LPG**: The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply increased slightly, and the demand changed little [36][37]. - **PTA - PX**: The PTA - PX supply - demand pattern is expected to be good. The aromatics blending oil speculation has cooled down, and the PTA processing fee has been repaired to a certain extent [38][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The MEG valuation is under pressure. The supply has increased, and the demand is expected to decline. The 12 - month inventory accumulation expectation is revised to a tight balance [43][46]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract of methanol maintains a weak expectation. The main factors affecting it include the slow unloading in ports and the situation of Iranian device shutdown [47][48]. - **PP**: The PP price has a marginal improvement expectation. The supply may decrease, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation and the basis change [49][50]. - **PE**: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and the basis change [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the price of Dar Blend stabilizes [55][56]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is in a weak shock pattern. The winter storage may be insufficient in quantity, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy [56][58]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber price is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and the synthetic rubber price may decline. The difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is expected to expand [62][63]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The high supply is under pressure, but the export policy provides support [64][65]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: The soda ash price is mainly cost - determined, and the glass price is affected by cold - repair expectations. The caustic soda price is expected to be weak [66][68]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is expected to continue to rise, and the offset paper price is expected to be shock - upward [69][70]. - **Log**: The log price is in a low - level shock pattern, and the supply and demand are not improved [71][72]. - **Propylene**: The propylene market remains loose, and the price is in a shock pattern [74][75]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure of pigs is still high, and the long - term supply may be affected by policies [77]. - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is mainly concerned with the supply and Chinese procurement. The domestic soybean meal lacks a single - side driver, and the rapeseed meal has a supply recovery expectation [78][79]. - **Oils**: The oil price is in a shock pattern. The supply pressure of palm oil and soybean oil exists, and the supply of rapeseed oil may be alleviated [80]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by the downstream demand. Pay attention to whether it can break through the hedging pressure level [81]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is in a weak state, affected by factors such as production in India and Brazil [82][84]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg production capacity is still excessive, and the short - term price may rebound [85]. - **Apples**: The apple price maintains a strong pattern, and the inventory is increasing [86]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is in a low - level shock pattern. Pay attention to the new jujube production determination [87][88].

消息面上，美国11月ADP就业人数意外减少3.2万，数据显示劳动力市场萎缩，使投资者增大了对美联 储将于下周降息的押注。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计美联储在下周三降息的可能性为 89%。此外，CSPT近期达成共识决定2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，改善铜精矿供需基本面。 银河证券发布研报称，矿冶博弈刺激铜价上涨。此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美 铜"虹吸效应"导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的 停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。 铜业股全线高开，截至发稿，江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.34%，报35.12港元；五矿资源 (01208)涨4.04%，报8.5港元；中国大冶有色金属(00661)涨3.77%，报0.11港元；中国有色矿业(01258)涨 3.16%，报17.29港元。 ...

图片来源：芝商所网站 美股科技股多数下跌，美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.43%，微软跌2.5%，英伟达、Meta均跌超1%，特斯拉上涨超4%，谷歌涨超1%。 当地时间12月3日，美股三大指数集体收涨，但大型科技股多数承压。微软跌2.5%，英伟达、Meta均跌超1%，特斯拉上涨超4%，谷歌涨超1%。 美国11月私营部门就业岗位减少3.2万个，强化市场对美联储12月降息的预期，推动白银价格创下历史新高。 美股三大指数收涨 数据显示，截至当地时间12月3日收盘，道指涨0.86%，标准普尔500指数涨0.3%，纳指涨0.17%。联合健康股价上涨超4%，高盛涨超2%，成为道指上涨主 要推动力。 美国自动数据处理公司3日发布数据显示，美国11月私营部门就业岗位数据下修，市场降息预期进一步强化。芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场对12月 美联储降息的预期概率升至89%。 | TARGET RATE (BPS) | PROBABILITY(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | NOW . | 1 DAY 2 DEC 2025 | 1 WEEK 26 NOV ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the US stock market is primarily driven by heightened expectations of interest rate cuts following disappointing employment data, leading to a significant influx of capital into financial stocks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 400 points, nearing 48,000, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 showed slower gains, indicating a divergence in market performance [1]. - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, contrary to expectations of an increase of 40,000, reinforcing market confidence in imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Sector Reactions - Financial stocks, such as Wells Fargo and American Express, experienced significant gains as investors anticipated lower financing costs and improved profitability due to potential interest rate cuts [4]. - Conversely, tech stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom faced declines, with Microsoft dropping 2.5% amid rumors of reducing AI-related sales quotas, highlighting the market's tendency to differentiate between winners and losers [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a focus on financial stocks with solid risk management and stable earnings, as they are expected to benefit directly from interest rate cuts [5]. - Additionally, sectors supported by genuine demand, such as consumer stocks boosted by the holiday shopping season and quality tech stocks related to data centers, are recommended for investment, while avoiding speculative AI stocks lacking performance backing [5].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as the best-performing investment asset of the year, with a year-to-date increase of 103%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise [1][3]. Market Performance - On December 3, spot silver reached a record high of $58.945 per ounce, with a daily increase of nearly 1% [1]. - COMEX silver prices surpassed $59 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract rose to 13,866 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of 2.7% [1][4]. - Silver has shown a consistent upward trend, with prices rising for eight consecutive months [4]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is anticipated to show a slight increase in inflation, with overall PCE expected to rise to 2.8% year-on-year [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 89.2%, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by January having a probability of 25.7% [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4]. - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, while total demand is forecasted to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [4]. - The photovoltaic industry is expected to drive silver demand, with an estimated increase of nearly 150 million ounces annually from 2024 to 2030 due to new solar installations [4]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Silver inventories in China have dropped to near a ten-year low, with record exports of over 660 tons in October [5]. - The market sentiment is bullish, driven by expectations of a rate cut, but caution is advised due to the significant year-to-date price increase of over 100% [5][6]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,863.15 tons, reflecting a daily increase of 60.79 tons, indicating sustained high demand [6].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report - **Report Date**: December 3, 2025 - **Author**: Long Aoming 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macro Level**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening, approaching the 99 mark [6][7][8]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a slightly stronger oscillation with a narrowing amplitude. The trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to increase. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, the downstream acceptance increased, and the spot premium strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 90,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with the trading volume continuing to increase, and approaching the 22,000 mark at the end of the session. The inventories of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad remained stable at a low level. As the aluminum price rose, downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices and made purchases as needed, and the spot discount remained weak. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, Shanghai nickel decreased in volume, and today it rebounded with a decrease in volume, showing a V-shaped trend as a whole. The spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the futures price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply shortage, and the gap may reach 30% by 2035. The expected supply shortage is due to factors such as declining ore grades, rising capital costs, and long project development cycles [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,300 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][16][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai-London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29][31][33][35]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41][43][45][47].

12月3日，根据欧盟统计局周二公布的数据，欧元区11月调和CPI同比初值从上月的2.1%加速至2.2%。 具体数据显示，欧元区11月CPI年率初值录得2.2%，高于10月的2.1%，保持在欧洲央行的中期目标水平 上方，预期为2.1%。剔除波动较大的食品和燃料价格后，核心通胀率持稳于2.4%，主要受服务业价格 持续快速上涨支撑，而耐用品价格涨幅保持温和。最新的通胀数据证实了欧洲央行自身的观点，即通胀 已基本得到控制，决策者现在有充足的时间来观察价格走势，然后再考虑任何进一步的行动。受此影 响，市场几乎完全排除了欧洲央行在今年最后一次会议上降息的可能性，并认为明年采取任何宽松政策 的可能性仅为四分之一。 另外，美国银行周一表示，鉴于疲软的劳动力市场状况以及政策制定者近期暗示可能降息的言论，该券 商现在预计美联储将在12月再降息25个基点，而此前的预期是这家央行本月晚些时候将维持利率不变。 在一份报告中，包括阿迪蒂亚・巴韦（AdityaBhave）在内的分析师列出了推动其更新预测的几大因 素。私营部门招聘疲软、美联储近期发布的劳动力市场状况调查不及预期，此外"美联储主席鲍威尔既 未直接、也未通过媒体反驳市场对12月 ...

| | | [Table_Report] 相关报告 服务消费景气提升，科技硬件延续涨价 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 中观景气 12 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 中观景气延续分化的增长格局，新兴科技景气仍强，高性能存储价格延续快速上涨， 游戏供给偏宽松；服务消费景气明显提升，地产周期和耐用品需求仍承压。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 陶前陈(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976164 | | | taoqianchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070014 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | 资产概览：银价铜价创历史新高 2025.12.01 外资与融资资金重回流入 2025.12.01 消费景气线索增多，科技制造延续增长 2025.11.26 ETF 流入明显，融资资金与外资有所流出 2025.11.24 资产概览：美元兑日元逼近 160 关口 2025.11.24 策 略 研 究 告 请务必阅读正文 ...

周三临近欧洲开盘，黄金在短线反弹乏力后回调至日内整理区间下沿，但整体仍稳守 4200 美元之上。 随着风险偏好延续，本周的避险力量有所减弱，令金价上方空间暂时受限。不过，美元持续走软与地缘 局势的不确定性仍为金价提供底部支撑。在重点数据公布前，市场更倾向于保持克制。 隔夜美股期货延续稳步走高，投资者情绪整体偏暖，使黄金盘中反弹后快速遇阻，短线多头操作相对谨 慎。临近 ADP 就业报告与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布，部分资金选择降低仓位，导致日内波动被压缩，黄 金维持弱势整理格局。 在关键数据出炉前，美元维持低位震荡，欧元与澳元早盘表现较为坚挺，而英镑则保持区间运行。美元 走弱令黄金始终处于 4200 上方的支撑带内，但最终的方向仍需等待周五公布的 PCE 物价指数提供更明 确的政策信号。 技术结构显示，隔夜金价在 4155—4150 区域获得稳固买盘支撑后反弹，目前 4200 仍是日内多空争夺的 关键。若能突破 4245—4250 的压制区，有望进一步打开上行空间，测试 4264—4265，并向 4300 心理 关口延伸。反之，一旦跌破 4200，预计会吸引逢低买盘回流，而 4150 依然是更深层的重要防守 ...