Group 1: Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, particularly influenced by a significant drop in the external market during the afternoon, leading to downward pressure on the domestic market [1] - Spot gold briefly fell below $4,450 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 1%, while spot silver dropped below $79 per ounce, with a daily decline of 3% [1] - As of 17:13 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at $4,464.49 per ounce, down 0.65%, and spot silver at $79.31 per ounce, down 2.35% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The pullback in precious metals may be driven by two factors: short-term technical profit-taking pressure and market reactions to the upcoming Bloomberg Commodity Index annual rebalancing, prompting some investors to realize profits early [1] - The market outlook suggests that precious metals may enter a high-level consolidation phase to absorb selling pressure [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the ADP employment figures and JOLTs job openings is anticipated, with a focus on the U.S. non-farm payroll report, which could indicate a weakening labor market and influence market expectations for future interest rate cuts [2] - Current market pricing indicates a roughly 50% probability for a rate cut in March, with full pricing expected by June [2] Group 4: Gold Reserves and Predictions - China's gold reserves reached $319.45 billion at the end of December, up from $310.6 billion at the end of November, with a total of 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global official gold reserves held by overseas governments exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion based on November gold prices [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with prices above the 100-hour moving average around $4,400, which serves as significant dynamic support [6] - The MACD indicator has fallen below the signal line, indicating increased short-term pullback pressure, while the RSI has dropped to around 48, reflecting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [6] - For silver, the technical indicators show that bulls still control the market, although the RSI has entered an overbought state, suggesting a potential for a pullback if prices fall below $80.00 [7]

1月7日，昨日黄金走了一个偏高震荡行情，亚盘开盘小幅上扬，午盘后反弹至4470一线进场空单，美盘 前回落至4440上方，空单小赚20余美金出场。美盘再度反弹，晚间最高是到了4497美元，最终则是收盘 于4493美元，日线收于一根小阳线。 黄金：4460-4465一线做多，止损4450，目标看4500-4520-4550一线。跌破4450则反弹出多做空，看4400 破位。另外，直接突破4500可以回调最多，依次上看。 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2026年1月7日周三 21：15美国12月ADP就业人数 23：00美国12月ISM非制造业PMI 23：00美国11月JOLTs职位空缺 23：00美国12月全球供应链压力指数 从技术上来看，在避险情绪未消的情况下今日黄金暂时还是保留一定的看强预期，可以看强但莫要盲从 追高，目前出现的调整动作或许预示多头动能的衰竭，避险情绪的渐减，日内下方可着重关注10日线 4430-20一带的争夺，而如果晚间数据能够有利空加持，那么黄金或可能跌回至5日线4410-00一带内。 日内上方则继续关注4500整数关口，在此之前早间下跌破位口4480也值得加以关注。 总之，对于已持有的 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum is a good long - position allocation variety under the support of macro and fundamental prospects, and institutions are highly consistent in bullish on Shanghai Aluminum in 2026, with the target price pointed to the 25,000 yuan mark, and the peak may be higher this year [1][2][3] - Short - term capital boosts Shanghai Aluminum to hit historical highs, which deviates from the fundamentals. Speculative participation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance in 2025 - 2026 - In 2025, precious metals led by gold had the largest annual market since 1979. At the end of the year, silver, platinum, etc. soared, and copper in non - ferrous metals rose over 35%, tin over 40%, while aluminum only rose 15% [1] - At the beginning of 2026, due to the US military action against Venezuela, precious metals strengthened again, and funds were allocated to aluminum, pushing Shanghai Aluminum to 24,000 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Policy Environment - In 2026, the commodity rise is driven by macro - easing and tight supply - demand expectations. The Fed may cut interest rates, and a dovish Fed chairman is likely to be appointed, maintaining the global easing trend [2] - In China, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", there are strong policy expectations. The government has issued policies on equipment renewal, consumer goods replacement, and grid construction, providing support for aluminum's traditional application scenarios [2] 3.3 Aluminum Market Supply and Demand - The demand for aluminum is expected to increase due to policy support, and the consumption scenarios are expanding. However, the supply is restricted, with domestic production capacity approaching the ceiling and overseas production capacity limited by electricity. There is a risk of over 500,000 tons of production suspension at a Mozambique aluminum plant in Q1, and the aluminum market is expected to be in short supply in 2026 with low inventory becoming the norm [2] 3.4 Investment Suggestions and Risks - Shanghai Aluminum's valuation is rising, but the fundamental reality shows weakness, and there is a risk of industrial negative feedback. Short - term speculation should be cautious, and aluminum smelters' selling hedging is cost - effective as the profit per ton of aluminum has soared to around 8,000 yuan [3]

- The macro scoring model is optimistic about Chinese bonds, US stocks, copper, and crude oil[24] - The US stock timing model indicates a potential strengthening of US stocks driven by an upward revision in rate cut expectations[25] - The gold timing model remains positive on gold, with the latest indicator value at -0.51, slightly improved from the previous month[27] - The crude oil timing model maintains a cautious view, with the latest crude oil sentiment index reading at -0.05, remaining below the zero axis[33] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34]

| | | 免责声明 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/6 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 19452 | 1004.980 | 10.0↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | +1205.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 1,752.00 | 130,227.00 | -2296.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | -618.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 192,491.00 | + ...

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of economic slowdown prompting interest rate cuts, creating a dual support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index has retreated from high levels, trading around 98.314, while gold prices are at $4461.06 per ounce, reflecting a 0.29% increase, with a high of $4475.46 and a low of $4426.09 [1]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the US military actions against Venezuela, have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased investment in gold and other safe-haven assets [2]. - Weak US ISM manufacturing PMI data for December has reinforced market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has pressured the dollar and supported gold prices [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The current upward trend in gold prices is based on the assumptions of sustained geopolitical risks and economic slowdown necessitating rate cuts, indicating a fragile foundation for this rise [3]. - The market is entering a critical verification period where the sustainability of the trend will depend on upcoming economic data supporting the narrative of monetary easing [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the arrest of Venezuela's president, which has provided strong upward momentum for gold [4]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a clear bullish arrangement in the moving averages [5]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4400, while resistance is seen at $4480, with the market currently fluctuating between $4420 and $4460 [6].

Group 1: Japanese Economic Outlook - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that further interest rate hikes may occur if economic and price trends align with the Bank's expectations [1][6] - Japan's economy showed moderate recovery last year, withstanding the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits [1][6] - Ueda expects wages and prices to rise moderately in sync, emphasizing that adjusting monetary policy is crucial for sustained economic growth [1][6] Group 2: European Economic Forecast - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Europe's economy will reach $31.4 trillion by 2026, with Germany leading at $5.3 trillion [2][7] - The UK and France are expected to follow with nominal GDPs of $4.2 trillion and $3.6 trillion, respectively, contributing over 40% to Europe's GDP [2][7] - Italy and Spain are anticipated to achieve moderate growth, with nominal GDPs of $2.7 trillion and $2 trillion by 2026 [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged, breaking the $4,400 mark and reaching a four-day high, trading around $4,470 [3][9] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [3][9] - Weak economic data from the U.S. has also provided support for gold prices [3][9] Group 4: Currency Market Movements - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight declines, trading around 156.30, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index due to soft economic data [4][10] - The USD/CAD pair saw an upward trend, reaching a four-week high near 1.3800, supported by reduced expectations of U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical tensions affecting the Canadian dollar [5][11]

昨天4432附近，再次空获利。 黄金暴力开局，直接闪击4400的关口，一路连涨，整体涨幅超130美金，今天多头不改，续涨箭指4500 的关口。 今天的走势 昨天一路暴走，美盘闪跌后。 再次V转，到今天延续上涨。 而且涨破4460，涨势不停。 继续看涨延续，上方看向4500的关口。 再次决战这个位置，再上破，看向4550的阻力。 当然了，面临此关口。 再次遇阻，下方调整，可再探4448的位置。 短期调整，站稳此位置上方，继续看涨不变。 下方若持续回调，跌破了4448，继续看向4400的关口，进入修正。 黄金10月疯狂跳水后，一路回升，到12月修复跌幅，冲顶新高后，再次跳水收官。每次的跳水，都迎来 回升新高，到本月又迎来爬坡模式，上方空间，可看向4550的历史高位。当然了，下方再次大的调整， 可再看向4300的关口。 操作方面，黄金再次走强，一路看涨为主，关注4448和4400做多的机会。此外，黄金上方面临关键阻 力，关注4500和4550做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，地缘风险突袭，美闪击委，再次点燃了一个新的恐慌，直接牵扯到全球的秩序稳定。同时，中 东火药库也是蠢蠢欲动，避险需求急剧升温，利好黄金大涨。 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have risen to $4,450 per ounce due to heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2] - The overall demand for precious metals remains strong, with silver prices also increasing [1] - Platinum is testing resistance levels between $2,245 and $2,265, indicating active market performance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela, which is influencing the demand for precious metals [1][3] - The dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [2] - Investors anticipate at least two interest rate cuts this year, which could enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - If gold can maintain levels above $4,450, it may target the next resistance level at $4,540 to $4,550 [3] - Silver has gained strong upward momentum, with a potential breakout above the resistance zone of $77.50 to $78.00, which could lead to further gains towards $83.50 to $84.00 [3] - Platinum's current testing of the $2,245 to $2,265 resistance level could lead to further upward movement towards $2,510 to $2,530 if successful [3]

今日周二(1月6日)欧盘时段，国际白银目前交投于78.60一线上方，今日开盘于76.63美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报79.01美元/盎司，上涨3.19%，最高触及79.34美元/盎司，最低下探75.84美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向 看涨走势。 斯皮瓦克补充称："美国-委内瑞拉事件马杜罗凸显了更广泛意义上的去全球化趋势。"在低利率环境以及地缘政治或经济 不确定性时期，不产生收益的资产通常表现较好。 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为18.3%，维持利率不变的概率为81.7%。到3月累计降息25个 基点的概率为43.2%，维持利率不变的概率为49.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.2%。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 白银昨日收长阳柱，升破5日均线，日线RSI仍位于高位，4小时一度逼近颈线压力78，短线趋势再度转多，76附近企稳 可继续进多。 白银阻力最小的路径是上行。下一个关键阻力位是12月30日的高点78.06美元，随后是79.00美元和80.00美元。另一方 面，如果银价跌破75.00美元，下一水平将是1月2日高位74.55美元的支撑位，之后是74.00美元/盎 ...